Euro 2016 > Group A Outright

[Sir Puntalot]

[StevieDay1983]

Group A Betting Preview

The first match of the 2016 European Championship comes from Group A where host nation France will play a Romania side that only conceded two goals during qualification. Switzerland will provide tough opposition having qualified comfortably despite an uncertain start to their campaign. Albania are being tipped by many to simply turn up and lose all three games but it's easy to forget they pulled off a shock 1-0 win against Portugal away during their group games.

Selection

Albania To Finish Group A With 0 Points @ 3.75 with bet365

Full Article: http://punts.pl/OHe682

[Smartsportsincome]

 

 

Hi all. Happy to share my Euro previews with you which I wrote up while researching my bets. Hope I can be helpful with that  Without further ado...

 

 

France

 

Their draw

 

The tournament favorite at 4,4 (Betfair). Lady luck has shined on the French draw and they face a rather soft group with some very defensive-minded teams. That should give them enough time to get rolling until the knockout stages. From then on they will have to face a third-placed team from the German/Spanish/Belgian group in the R16. Croatia or Poland are the strongest conceivable options. Their quarterfinal opponent looks pretty soft too. They will have to deal with whatever team (supposedly) finishes behind England in Group B, or Austria. Mind you that Portugal coming second in Group F isn’t quite as unrealistic as it might seem. Their most probable opponent in the Semis is Germany and things get quite serious from there. Judging by the draw, France is a deserved favorite. A semifinal appearance looks quite likely (1,71 Betfair) and is the minimum target to achieve.

 

Strengths

 

France boasts a very strong squad but has some notable absentees. In attack, Benzema misses due to his blackmail incident and will likely be replaced by Giroud as a center forward. Giroud doesn’t have the best of reputations and in my opinion Benzema would be a better fit for their attack with his mobility and playmaking qualities. However, Giroud has started in three friendlies this year and has found the back of the net in each of them, scoring four in total. France looks like one of the tournament’s best teams in terms of scoring prowess. They have scored in 18 out of 20 friendlies since their last competitive fixture vs Germany in Brazil and failed to do so only against England and Albania. Besides Giroud they can count on the versatile Antoine Griezmann on the right and Payet, who has had an excellent season at West Ham United, on the left. In midfield, Pogba provides an extra scoring option and he is the star and leader of the French squad.

 

Weaknesses

 

France looks good in attack due to their raw individual quality but defensively there are question marks. Sakho and Varane are missing the tournament with injuries, so Mangala and Koscielny should start in central defense. This makes still for a respectable duo but yet another area of concern is their full backs. Evra and Sagna are still decent players but not already in decline at their advanced age. Because of the easy draw this should not be too much of an issue before the semis. There, their possible opponent faces a somewhat familiar problem (*cough* Germany). France conceded twice in their first three friendlies in 2016 against the Netherlands, Russia and Cameroon and only kept a clean sheet against the toothless Scots. They are able to find the opponent’s goal even when conceding but it is worth to keep this in mind for latter stages of the tournament when outscoring the opposition is less of an option.

 

The group stage matches

 

That said, France has not faced competitive pressure in two years. They will be up versus a classic bus-parking team in their opening fixture against Romania, which should make things interesting. A somewhat tight and cagey opening match looks on the cards. Combining Correct Score odds on Betfair for a 1-0/2-0/3-0 win for 2,2 looks certainly worth a shot and is in my opinion better than the 1,3 for a straight win. France should be able to negotiate Albania in their second match despite failing to beat them twice in friendlies. This is reflected by the odds though, which are roughly the same as in their friendly fixture. Better odds should be available in play if you fancy the handicap, barring an unexpected spanking for Albania in their own opener. They will probably not need to win their last match against Switzerland to qualify. They might even have first place already locked up, so it is probably best to hold out. Since they started at 1,89 in the same match in Brazil, 1,65 does not appeal to me too much.

 

Outlook

 

France looks an almost certain winner of a poor group. They should be able to pick up at least seven points, even with all three opponents probably parking the bus against them. I was able to get France to win their group at 1,36 and to make the semis at 1,8. I would make 1,25 my cutoff for the former and 1,7 for the latter. Their high-scoring affairs, especially in this year’s friendlies, suggest that France still faces some problems in cohesion. I don’t think that any team in their group will be able to exploit this. Romania and Albania look way too defensive and toothless. Switzerland will likely play reactively too although they have a bit more individual quality. Come the knockout stages, the team should be sharper and they might not have to face a “big” team before the semis. From then on things get unpredictable but France surely look like one of the hot favorites to lift the trophy.

 

Picks

 

France to win Group A - 1 Unit@1,33 (Bet365)

France to beat Romania 1-0/2-0/3-0 – 1 Unit@2,2 net odds (Betfair)

Romania

 

 

Romania made it to the tournament in a poor qualification group that was won by Northern Ireland. They won five but also drew five, conceding only twice but also scoring a measly 11 goals. Romania even managed to sandwich three straight 0-0 in the middle of their campaign. Needless to say that the team plays, like a lot of the “smaller” teams at the tournament, very defensive-minded football. They are keeping a compact defense and look to break quickly with vertical football. Their last two friendlies were surprisingly goal-heavy (5-1 vs Georgia and 3-4 vs Ukraine). I am pretty sceptical that we will see the same kind of scoring in a match with competitive pressure. The team has no real stars and will face a side with a similar approach in Albania. The other competitor for second place in the group is playing a bit more offensively but is lacking the right balance (Switzerland). Still, if they can keep the damage low versus France and grind out a result in their second match versus Switzerland, they would be in with a real shot in their last match against minnows Albania. Unders might be the way to go and 1,67 in their last match against Albania makes appeal. Even, or perhaps especially, if you factor in that Romania might need a win to progress. They will likely face Germany or England in case they do make it out of the group as third-placed team. In the not entirely impossible event of coming second, Romania would likely play Poland or Ukraine in the R16. I would put them around 3ish to qualify there. So a QF appearance seems not entirely impossible but the stars would really have to align for Romania to make it that far. The more likely case is that they will find it hard to score in the group and finish third with one to four points, failing to qualify.

 

Albania

 

 

Albania is a real and true underdog at its first international appearance. In its very low-scoring qualification group, three wins and only seven goals in seven matches were enough to leave Denmark behind. They got a big break against Serbia in a match that was suspended due to a drone flying over the pitch. A 0-0 turned into a 3-0 and ensured the crucial points for qualifications. Albania’s style is based on defending deep and hoofing the ball long, looking to win second balls in dangerous areas. Naturally, this makes their offensive play pretty reliant on luck and chance. Only 27.1% of playing time in qualifications Albania was winning a match, which is in the bottom quarter of all qualified teams.  

 

In terms of matchups, Albania has probably a pretty decent group. France will likely outclass them this time, having played them twice in friendlies and not won. Their first match against Switzerland will be key and a good indicator of how well the team can perform. I would expect them to keep it tight but eventually the Swiss should come out with the W. Romania plays pretty defensively as well and Albania has a decent chance of frustrating the Romanians with their reactive approach. I expect a lot of tight matches, deep defending and overall pretty ugly football. Albania could be good enough for a point or even two but I cannot see them winning a match as their quality in offense is simply too low to compete. My bet of choice was Albania to finish the group last and Ladbrokes gives a solid 1,75 on that. Even in a supposedly defensive group, anything over 1,6 looks good enough.

 

Picks

 

Albania to finish bottom – 1 Unit@1,73 (Bet365)

 

Switzerland

 

The team

 

The Swiss have a solid, if not spectacular squad. They beat who they had to beat in qualifications and lost who they should lose to. Seven out of eight matches against opponents not named England were won and secured a comfortable second place. The squad boasts some strong names in Xhaka (playing at Arsenal from next season), Shaqiri (Stoke, their topscorer in qualis), Rodriguez (Wolfsburg), Lichtsteiner (Juventus) and others. Their style of play is based on a solid defence and playing constructively out of the back but then accelerating play quickly to get into the final third. However, they tend to be a bit unstructured in their offensive play and it shows in their matches. Switzerland have led only once at halftime if the opponent was not San Marino and were winning only 27.3% of their match time. That is barely better than tiny Albania. It seems that their vertical approach works better in the latter stages of the match when the opponent tires and the match becomes more stretched, something to keep in mind for their group stage matches.

 

Their group stage matches

 

Switzerland opens against Albania and will have to pick up full points there to make life easy on itself. Since they can struggle with breaking down opponents early, waiting for higher odds on them in play seems like a feasible option if you want to bet on Switzerland. Personally, I like the Switzerland & Under 2,5 option for 3,25 at Bet365. The Swiss play Romania second and if things go according to plan the matchup should be decent for them. Romania will be the team that is looking to pick up points and Switzerland should be happy to play patient football and wait for its chances. I would expect odds to come down a bit if both favorites win their first match on Matchday one in this group. Given their patient approach and Romania’s defensive tactics, another low-scoring match looks likely. Waiting for better odds in play looks like a viable option there too. The final match versus France is a replay of the 2014 World Cup fixture and the Swiss will look to avenge the heavy 2-5 defeat they suffered in Brazil.

 

The outlook

 

Switzerland is the designated “second team” in this group behind the French. Anything but progress to the round of 16 would be a disappointment. If they make the second place, the Swiss would likely play Poland or Ukraine in the next round, which is a realistic but tricky opponent to beat either way. Especially a matchup versus Poland would be interesting to see since the Poles play a more attacking style compared to the patient Swiss approach. Finishing third would probably mean elimination, as Germany and England are too strong for them. England in fact beat them 2-0 twice during qualifications. 2,375 at Bet365 for Switzerland to be eliminated in the round of 16 looks like a decent bet and is the correct favorite in that market.

 

Picks

 

Switzerland to win 1-0/2-0 – 0,75Units@3,25 (Bet365)