Chala's Lays

[chala]

I've been paper trading with some lays for about 2 months now. It started off well, but like all laying systems has started to hit a bad patch, but is still in profit, so I thought I'd start posting my selections (to get my post count up abit:D ). The only real rule, is that I will try not to lay at a higher price than 6 (the average price I have been laying at is about 4.3). However if I feel the lay is strong, I may take 6.2 or 6.4, but generally 6 will be the maximum price I will lay at. I will also lay the horses to place. I will generally try to lay the horse to place at the true e/w bet odds. e.g. if the place odds are 1/5 and I lay at 6, I will be hoping to lay to place at 2, however depending on the number of runners in the race the place odds can be abit erratic, so quite often I may advise to leave an unmatched lay to place and see if it gets matched. Due to me working long hours, I will post my selections early most mornings. This is not great for the place markets which are often not liquid at this point, however I will just leave an unmatched bet if this is the case. I can assure you I will update honestly (I'm not trying to sell a service, so theres no point in lying about whether a lay get's matched or not. I'm only doing this for a bit of fun, although I am laying for a small stake myself). If anyone wants I'll try to post a betfair p&l picture to show that the bet was either matched or unmatched (but someone will have to explain to me how to do it). Down to the nitty gritty, each lay will be to win 5 pts (4.75 after commission). The lay to place price will be in brackets, and if there is a question mark after a price that means the bet was unmatched before I left for work. Here's hoping I can emulate WFTE's lay the racing post system :cheers

[chala]

Re: Chala's Lays OK, here goes, just one lay for today. Muss: 15:50 - Strensall 6.4 (2.04)

[Aykay1]

Re: Chala's Lays Good luck Chala - i wouldnt disagree with your choice there, i think Fallons presence has a lot to do with the short price of the horse.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Chala's Lays Good luck Chala and thanks for the kind mention. Different methods of laying horses is something Im always looking at and certain profit can be made this way. One other method I like to use is to lay any clear favourites in handicaps, works rather well. Again, good luck.

[chala]

Re: Chala's Lays Cheers AK & WFTE, a nice start to get off the mark. Muss: 15:50 - Strensall 6.4 (2.04) - 5th/17 @ 6.5 :clap Win Lays: 1/1 +4.75pts Place Lays: 1/1 +4.75

[chala]

Re: Chala's Lays Newmarket - 15:45 - African Sahara 5.9 (n/a) Fontwell - 16:40 - Slyphide 5.4 (1.88?)

[spreadman]

Re: Chala's Lays Good luck, Chala, only just noticed your new thread.:ok I have only recently considered laying horses - the concept is alien to me, being a 'senior punter', (old s*d), used to backing horses to win, but as the soccer season is almost over, finding another potential source of income is necessary. On paper, whatever system I test seems to start well, but one loss can wipe out 4 or 5 previous wins, epecially if you lay long odds horses that have a habit of suddenly finding form when you back them. I'm probably teaching my grandmother to suck eggs here, but it's just an observation. The over 45's thread might interest you, Chala, there's not many of us left, all literary contributions appreciated. Time for my morning nap(!) :zzz

[chala]

Re: Chala's Lays Newmarket - 15:45 - African Sahara 5.24 (n/a) - 4th/6 @ 3.75:clap Fontwell - 16:40 - Slyphide 5.4 (1.88?) - 5th/8 @ 6.5:clap A bit of a scare today. After Laying African Sahara at 5.9 early doors, cashbar became a non runner. Despite Betfair adjusting the odds down to 5.24, he was then readily layable at 4.5 and got backed even further on course down to 11/4. Fortunately though, he was well beaten. Good result with Slyphide too, however unfortunately the lay to place bet finished unmatched, so we lost a potential winner there. Win Lays: 3/3 +14.25pts Place Lays: 1/1 +4.75pts Spreadman, I too was mainly a football gambler for a while, but have been taking more of an interest in the horses recently. Laying can be very frustrating when a couple of wins knocks out all your hard earned profit, but I'm gonna try and stick with it for a couple of months to see how I get on. Can't seem to find the over 45's thread, can you direct me? Not sure how old you think I am though? I'm only 23! Must talk like a man wise beyond my years :D .

[spreadman]

Re: Chala's Lays Chala, well done with today's lays, I missed your 2nd tip, but I was on African Sahara, just a small lay bet. Your signature, (under your forum name) says 'senior punter', which normally means a description of age, rather than youthful experience, i.e. an old s*d, like me, (well) over 45. Speaking of which, you can find the thread I mentioned in the general chat forum, entitled 'old farts thread, min age 45', but I'm sure they'll let a keen young 'whippersnapper' in! (Please excuse the smell of old men, embrocation cream and pee.) .....Ah, to be 23 again..........:cry

[chala]

Re: Chala's Lays Leicester 4:00 Bon Nuit - 5 (1.76?) Sandown 8:20 Baddam - 4.4 (1.65?)

[chala]

Re: Chala's Lays Leicester - 4.00 - Bon Nuit 5.2 (1.76?) Sandown - 8:20 - Baddam 4.4 (1.65?)

[chala]

Re: Chala's Lays Leicester - 4.00 - Bon Nuit - 5.2 (1.76?) - 2nd/9 @ 6.5 Sandown 8.20 - Baddam - 4.4 (1.65?) - 2nd/8 @ 4 Maybe a tad fortunate today, both horses ran well and picked up 2nd place. However only 2pts of the 5pts available was matched on Baddam to place at 1.65. So despite making 9.5pts on the win markets, we lost 5.10pts on the place market. Win Lays: 5/5 +23.75pts Place Lays: 1/3 -0.35pts

[chala]

Re: Chala's Lays Yarmouth 5:20 - Kristinor - 6 (2.24?)

[spreadman]

Re: Chala's Lays Chala, (oh, no it's Spreadmoron again), - noticed a pattern developing?

[chala]

Re: Chala's Lays Yarmouth 5:20 - Kristinor - 6 (2.24?) - 5th/11 @ 7 :clap Good result yesterday lay well beaten, and the place bet got matched too. Spreadman, not sure what pattern your referring to? Is it that all laying systems start well only to get wiped out after a few winners? Win Lays: 6/6 +28.5pts Place Lays: 2/4 +4.4pts

[chala]

Re: Chala's Lays Haydock 3:20 - Firenze - 5 (1.83) Sandown 19:20 - Dubai Venture - 2.9 (1.3) Uttoxeter 18:30 - Boobee - 4 (1.5?)

[spreadman]

Re: Chala's Lays Well, it's not really a pattern, more of an observation.....6/6 lay wins,:ok but place lays...... Well done, anyway, Mr. C. :D

[chala]

Re: Chala's Lays Haydock 3:20 - Firenze - 4.38 (1.70) - 3rd/15 @ 7 Sandown 19:20 - Dubai Venture - 2.9 (1.3) - 2nd/9 @ 2.625 Uttoxeter 18:30 - Boobee - 4 (1.5?) - 2nd/9 @ 4.5 Managed to get the place lays matched today, but then they all went and got placed! Better luck on the wins though, all three selection failed to win, although Dubai Venture went very close. Firenze's odds were scaled down due to Morgan Lewis (11/2) being a non runner. Spreadman the place lays don't seem to be going very well at the moment but I'll stick with them, as their less high risk and are still showing a profit from my archive results. Although the win lays have started well, I'm sure to lay a couple of winners soon and wipe out much of the profit, whereas a couple of unplaced horses in a row, can start to build the lay place bank nicely, and winners don't hit it as hard. Win Lays: 9/9 +42.75pts Place Lays: 2/7 -3.1pts

[chala]

Re: Chala's Lays Epsom 5:25 - Ghurra - 5.3 (2.08) Goodwood 20:55 - Kingdom of Dreams 2.7 (n/a)

[chala]

Re: Chala's Lays Epsom 5:25 - Ghurra - 5.3 (2.08) - 6th/14 @ 5.5 :clap Goodwood 20:55 - Kingdom of Dreams 2.44 (n/a) - 1st/7 @ 2.75 :@ The Good run came to an end Friday. The odds on Kingdom of Dreams were reduced from 2.7 to 2.44 due to 2 non runners. Unfortunately I had problems getting onto the site yesterday so couldn't get my selection up, and he finished 8th/15. Nevermind, onwards and upwards, should be back tommorrow. Win Lays: 10/11 +40.3pts Place Lays: 3/8 +1.65pts

[chala]

Re: Chala's Lays Redcar 16:30 - Esquire 2.5 (1.32)

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Chala's Lays Fantastic job! I was wondering what factors you look at most when making your selections. I mainly like handicap favs and the racing post rated. I also like to find trainers that are out of form.

[chala]

Re: Chala's Lays Redcar 16:30 - Esquire 2.5 (1.32) - 10th/10 @ 2.75 :clap If only all lays could be this good! WFTE, I mainly look at different ratings to decide on my selections. I try not to get too concerned with the Jockey or the Trainer as I believe that too often horses are hyped or priced far too short just because of the Jockey riding it, or the stable it's from. I'm not saying this doesn't have an impact, obviously it does, but I think it can have too much of an impact on the price making it a value lay. If I got too concerned with Jockey's, I would have never taken on a short priced Frankie horse today, and look how it turned out.:ok Win Lays: 11/12 +45.05 pts Place Lays: 4/9 +6.4 pts

[spreadman]

Re: Chala's Lays Well done, Chala, I saw the odds dropping... and it just goes to show that you shouldn't be swayed by where the money's going!To lay a fav. like that - inspired! :clap

[chala]

Re: Chala's Lays Beverley 14:50 - Celtic Shadow - 6.4 (2.34) Beverley 16:50

[chala]

Re: Chala's Lays 14:50 - Celtic Shadow 6.4 (2.34?) 16:50 - Brave Bear 4.8 (1.9) 18:20 - Pride of Kinloch 4.3 (2.24?)

[chala]

Re: Chala's Lays 14:50 - Celtic Shadow 6.4 (2.34?) - 14th/14 @ 4.5 :clap 16:50 - Brave Bear 4.8 (1.9) - 11th/15 @ 3.75 :clap 18:20 - Pride of Kinloch 4.3 (2.24?) - 10th/14 @ 6 :clap A great day, all lays well and truly beaten, none of them even close to making the frame. And the two unmatched lay place bets got matched as well. Win Lays: 14/15 +59.3 pts Place Lays: 7/12 +20.65 pts

[chala]

Re: Chala's Lays Uttoxeter 18:40 - In the Frame 4.1 (1.75?)

[rodlyons]

Re: Chala's Lays Chala - Oh Dear ! In the Frame wins, and worse than that is placed as well - obviously ! I think you've had a great run and whatever criteria you have for picking the horses to lay thats the important thing. You will always lay a winner, just as you may back a loser, but I think you should drop the place lays - thats almost like saying, i think this horse is going to get beat, even if by a short head, but also by up to 3 more horses as well. Treat the lay as a Boolean function and bet on it not winning at the price. after all laying more points for effectivley near even money will to a place will always eat into the profits. Mr Roy

[chala]

Re: Chala's Lays Uttoxeter 18:40 - In the Frame 4.1 (1.75?) - 1st/12 @ 5 :@ Win Lays: 14/16 +43.8 pts Place Lays: 7/13 +16.9 pts Mr Roy, I can see what you are saying, but as both methods are still in profit, I will continue to do both for a while longer. Infact, the place lays are slightly infront in my archived results going back before I started the thread. The main reason I do the place lays as well, is because it's less high risk. I've had a good run, but I expect a bad run is just around the corner. 3 winners in a row at 4.00, would wipe out my win lay profit, leaving the place lays infront. I expect the win lays to do better in the long run, particularly as you often have to place lay at inflated odds, but let's wait and see. Thanks for the interest anyway.