Tuesday Racing

[BillyHills]

Market Rasen is a poor card with 2 4-runner races and a possibility of more NR's.

Sedgefield is a bit better so is the choice for the Placepot.

I like a couple at Sedgefield, the first is See The Legend in the second race, he's back in this lower grade and often runs well in this type of company, he hasn't been out for a while so will watch with interest, a decent each way bet at 8/1.

The nap is later on;

400 Sedgefield: Roxyfet 13/8 Coral (now 15/8 at Hills)

Micky Hammond's 6yo won here on Boxing Day and looks to have found another opportunity off his revised mark. Was beaten last time at Catterick but he didn't run so well at that track before so going to give him the benefit of the doubt now back at a course where he has won twice and been placed twice. Market rival Rupert Bear is very one paced and has not won since 2012.

Placepot

 

 

 

[richard-westwood]

id like to try something diff today .......call it a lesson in hcapping ....ive had a few ideas for a while and would like to share them on here and you can 

criticise and pick holes to your hearts content but im hoping in doing so maybe we can come up with a handicapping formula that can be used to win us a few quid ....

ill start the ball rolling and lets see how it progresses .....

firstly you want to work out what the horse is currently doing ......every horse has a current "number " over it which varies but each horse has a current ability number and i like to establish this as follows ......lets take a race today 245 southwell and pick it apart 

horse 1    indira    off rated 70 has finished 3 lengths down both last 2 races so  ill rate him as  current abilty    64 

horse 2   with hindsight  also  finished 3 lengths down off 70 so lets give him  also  64 

horse 3  dark diamond  won well off 60 was raised to 68 finished no where so ill rate him as good at 60

horse 4   weald of kent  won easily off 64   raised to 70  based on that last run youd have to say his ability is around 70

horse 5  thimaar   6 lengths down off 72  rate him around the 60

horses 6 and 7 are very poor so for todays test we will omit them .....

now we have an ability rough rating ...................now we want to know what the horse might be capable of under todays conditions ....there are numerous methods for this but lets for arguments and ease sake combine the rp and speed ratings .......lots of work has gone into them so may as well use 

horse 1     64   137     201

horse 2  64    147   211

horse 3   60   137   197

horse 4  70   125      195 

horse 5   60   130     190

 

so weve ruled out horses 6 and 7 .....looking at thr ratings it seems logical to rule out horse 5 as hes done nothing off this mark and isnt well weighted that leaves 4 

weald of kent is fav and showed vastly superior form over cd last time but before that had shown nothing off this mark ......could be that penny has finally dropped and good course form a def plus but time for that race lto was poor suggesting it was nothing special so im going to take him on today 

horse 3 dark diamond  won well off 61 but ran appalling off 68 suggesting the hcapper nailed him so off 67 today he looks very weak from a betting view 

so overall the two to focus on look to be the top two horses number 1 and number two 

number 2 with hindsight has the highest figure on 211 overall probably due to fact he has course form too ......looks a few lbs high but against weak opposition and with course form he looks dangerous .......number 1 indira has been running pretty consistently of late running a 64 lto but has been as high as 69 off this mark ...crucially is ridden by a 5lb claimer today so offically runs of 65 today and thats a big advantage but no course form only kempton and wolv 

quick look at betting has horse 4 as 5/2 fav .....if you believe that last run then yes he looks fairly strong today ......but weak time and poor form in past suggest lots more needed today 

horses 1 and 2 are avilable at 4/1 and 10/1 !!!.........so lets roll the dice and see what happens 

indira  2 pts win  10/1  stj

with hindsight  2 pts win 4/1 paddyp

 

Edited February 9, 2016 by richard-westwood