Grex Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 160 bets +17% yield Grex;1843790 Discipline paid dividends today, with Milan only managing a 4-4 draw. Fiorentina came back from 0-2, with 3 goals in the last 20 minutes ... amazing :clap [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] No. Date LGE H Team A Team Bet Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield Bookie 100.00 157 05/01/2011 EP Bolton 11 Wigan H 1.75 10.00 L -10.00 351.80 16% Interwetten 158 06/01/2011 IA Roma 42 Catania H 1.50 10.00 W 5.00 356.80 16% Bet365 159 06/01/2011 IA Udinese 20 Chievo H 1.80 10.00 W 8.00 364.80 17% William Hill 160 06/01/2011 IA Inter 31 Napoli H 1.86 10.00 W 8.60 373.40 17% Canbet 161 09/01/2011 IA Fiorentina 32 Brescia H 1.56 10.00 W 5.60 379.00 17% Canbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 160 bets +17% yield [quote=Grex;1844925]Discipline paid dividends today, with Milan only managing a 4-4 draw. :clap:clap:clap No.DateLGEH TeamA TeamBetOddsStakeW/LReturnBankYieldBookie100.0015705/01/2011EPBolton11WiganH1.7510.00L-10.00351.8016%Interwetten15806/01/2011IARoma42CataniaH1.5010.00W5.00356.8016%Bet36515906/01/2011IAUdinese20ChievoH1.8010.00W8.00364.8017%William Hill16006/01/2011IAInter31NapoliH1.8610.00W8.60373.4017%Canbet16109/01/2011IAFiorentina32BresciaH1.5610.00W5.60379.0017%Canbet[/quote] Scary time with FIORENTINA today , thought it was curtains but they didn't half turn it around . ps, remember to vote for this system in the Oscars guys . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield Wanna be my public relations manager, JTW ?? ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield I have a graph in Excel that demonstrates the consistentcy of this system over the past season-and-a-half. How do I import, or copy-and-paste into a PL post???.... can anyone help??... thanks :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield Grex;1845254 A simple copy>paste should work but you must use Internet Explorer! Keep up the good work with the system and :hope for the PL Oscars. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rebel Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield Grex;1845254 one way i can think of is if you take a screen shot of it and post it 2nd post explain how to do it http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f2/testing-new-way-upload-screen-shots-72224/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield Thanks, David and Rebel.... despite the excellent instructions, it still took me about 30 minutes to fathom out the¨"imageshack" method :eyes Well, as you can see, the system has been reasonably consistent over the entire 161 bets. Having said that, it has recently gone through probably its worst spell (from Bet 147 to 157). It is now on the upturn again, so hopefully this will turn out to be a positive future trend :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield Looking at the early Bet365 odds for next weekend, it looks as though there will be only one possible qualifier (Lazio - Sampdoria), and that is currently right on the limit at 1.80 :cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris 10b Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield Grex;1845405 Just a quick one Grex, if the 365 odds are 1.80 but another bookie is offering 1.82 does the bet still qualify for the system. Great system keep up the good work, hope you win the Oscar:cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield Hi, Chris.... the system was developed based on historical Bet365 odds. The cut-off odds are 1.45 and 1.80, as published by Bet365. If a home team from the Premiership or Serie A falls within this range, then it becomes a selection. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] To increase the value of the bet, then obviously you should go for the highest available odds..... so the answer to your question is YES :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dumyat Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield I am trying to understand this system. B365 who are very experienced compilers price up something at 1.8 and instead of a strike rate of say 53% with an edge to them it performs at say 58%. Similarly for all odds in the system range. Why should that be? The sample size and yield is so high that it is difficult to argue otherwise but at the moment I cant see why this should continue to work. With all the normal caveats of respect for anyone who posts systems, it's always easier to pick holes than build something up etc - but having read all the posts I still cant understand why it works. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield I lie awake at night asking myself exactly the same questions..... and still no answers ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield [quote=Grex;1845383]Thanks, David and Rebel.... despite the excellent instructions, it still took me about 30 minutes to fathom out the¨"imageshack" method :eyes Well, as you can see, the system has been reasonably consistent over the entire 161 bets. Having said that, it has recently gone through probably its worst spell (from Bet 147 to 157). It is now on the upturn again, so hopefully this will turn out to be a positive future trend :hope [/quote] Wow, the rise of the system is much better than the price of gold. :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dominator Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield [quote=Dumyat;1845688]I am trying to understand this system. B365 who are very experienced compilers price up something at 1.8 and instead of a strike rate of say 53% with an edge to them it performs at say 58%. Similarly for all odds in the system range. Why should that be? The sample size and yield is so high that it is difficult to argue otherwise but at the moment I cant see why this should continue to work. With all the normal caveats of respect for anyone who posts systems, it's always easier to pick holes than build something up etc - but having read all the posts I still cant understand why it works.[/quote] 2 things.. First, Bet365 does not price up anything - they just follow the market odds blindly. If market says a match is 1.45 homewin, then they will also be around that odds. 98% of all bookies just follow the market odds blindly. So it really will make no difference if you use Bet365 or another bookmaker with same odds margin for this project. 2nd, a sample of 150-175 bets is very small when it comes to statistics. I belive myself and another person earlier in this thread also tested this system over a much bigger data block, and got a much worse result. With that said.. I still find it interesting to follow these "systems".. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield Grex;1845698 Stupid comment..... it's not going to win many votes on the Oscars "best system" poll :lol relf;1845722 Interesting thought...... perhaps I should put the system on the "futures" market :tongue2 [quote=Dominator;1845772]2 things.. 2nd, a sample of 150-175 bets is very small when it comes to statistics. I belive myself and another person earlier in this thread also tested this system over a much bigger data block, and got a much worse result. With that said.. I still find it interesting to follow these "systems"..[/quote] I think you are referring to Mglanfield's post (#491). In fact, he was using average odds from Betbrain, not Bet365...... also his back-testing was over a shorter period than mine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dominator Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield [FONT=Comic Sans MS][QUOTE] I think you are referring to Mglanfield's post (#491). In fact, he was using average odds from Betbrain, not >Bet365...... also his back-testing was over a shorter period than mine. [/QUOTE] hell Grex, now you made me have to look over all the pages to find it :) Anyway, it was the post from myself and Kumquat Tree on page 10 and 11 I meant. I do not know what data you got or how you tested it, but when I backtest this system using exactly what you write. Bet365 odds between 1.45 and 1.80, and test all the way back to the 2000/2001 season I only get a very tiny profit for Premier League, and an overall loss for Italy. The samples I test is over 700 matches, so alot more than the 160-175 matches we currently got going here.. So I would still expect this to go down over time... BUT, it also may not.. Since what also can be seen in my database, is that it is the last 3-4 seasons thats been the best by far, so for some reason, the bookies/market does not seem to have adjusted in to having too high odds in this exact area.. If they continue not to do so, this system could ofcause continue to be a success ;) [/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield Thanks, Dominator, for finding the previous comments on pages 10 and 11 (to be honest, I had forgotten all about them).... and for your constructive analysis. As I have mentioned a few times, I had a catastrophe with my old laptop and lost all files on the hard disk. I am in the process of re-creating the back-testing on this system, but it will take a day or so. One thing that perhaps you have not taken into account, is that the system ignores the first and last 6 rounds of matches in each league. I remember that this significantly improved the yield during back-testing. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Anyway, thanks again.... I will come back to you on this when I have finished the number-crunching :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dominator Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield [FONT=Comic Sans MS][QUOTE] One thing that perhaps you have not taken into account, is that the system ignores the first and last 6 rounds of matches in each league. I remember that this significantly improved the yield during back-testing. [/QUOTE] Ah right.. Yes, I didn't know about that, and haven't tested it with such an option. But its an interesting system for sure, and I'll keep an eye on you ;)[/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield Dominator;1846566 I will be looking over my shoulder :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield Three for the weekend..... all near the upper limit of 1.80 on Bet365 :unsure [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] No. Date LGE H Team A Team Bet Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield Bookie 100.00 161 09/01/2011 IA Fiorentina 32 Brescia H 1.56 10.00 W 5.60 379.00 17% Canbet 162 15/01/2011 EP West Brom Blackpool H 1.85 10.00 Interwetten 163 15/01/2011 IA Napoli Fiorentina H 1.74 10.00 Canbet 164 16/01/2011 IA Lazio Sampdoria H 1.85 10.00 Paddy Power Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield VOTE NOW !!!! We're only 3 votes off the joint leaders in the PL Best System Oscars :eek C'mon guys ...you know it makes sense :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield Thanks, JTW..... your cheque is in the post ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tram-BOOK-ismoi Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield Great job Grex, but i consider why you do not include Arsenal (1.53) and Milan(1.53) in your selections? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield tram-BOOK-ismoi;1849908 That's because they are away teams. As the title suggests, the system selects Home Favourites. On a side note, would it be profitable to lay away teams in 1.45-1.80, considering they often fall prey to upsets. Hehe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield tram-BOOK-ismoi;1849908 As the thread title suggests, we are looking at HOME favourites..... Arsenal and Milan are playing AWAY ;) [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] EDIT.... sorry Relf, we posted at the same time !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield [quote=jtw1;1849557]VOTE NOW !!!! We're only 3 votes off the joint leaders in the PL Best System Oscars :eek C'mon guys ...you know it makes sense :D[/quote] WOW :loon..... your "persuasion" seems to be working..... now only 1 vote behind the two horse-racing systems :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tram-BOOK-ismoi Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield Thanks guys, Grex good luck with the Oscar it is a real 'fight' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield Grex;1849936 Now joint 2nd , only 1 vote behind !!! C'mon guys lets give those four-legged mug-punters a run for their money , especially after todays double comes in :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield [quote=Grex;1849929]As the thread title suggests, we are looking at HOME favourites..... Arsenal and Milan are playing AWAY ;) EDIT.... sorry Relf, we posted at the same time !![/quote] No worries! [quote=jtw1;1849942]Now joint 2nd , only 1 vote behind !!! C'mon guys lets give those four-legged mug-punters a run for their money , especially after todays double comes in :loon[/quote] Haha, if only we could vote more than ONCE. Will be cheering you on till 20th. Good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield WBA certainly made it an interesting afternoon :loon :hope for NAPOLI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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