slapdash Posted May 19, 2005 Author Share Posted May 19, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system Two more losers. Oh, well, nothing that a 33/1 winner or two won't fix. :cry At the moment, this is looking like the world's worst system, but in a spirit of blind stubbornness, I'll carry on until I've had 50 runners and give up then if things aren't looking considerably better. Starting bank: 100 Staked: 48 P/L: -35.75 Current bank: 64.25 Yield: -74.48% Bets: 24 Win: 0 Place: 2 Lose: 22 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 20, 2005 Author Share Posted May 20, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 20/5/05 4.00 Newmarket: Juste Pour L'Amour (10/1 Stan James) 1 point EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 20, 2005 Author Share Posted May 20, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system Another loser. Starting bank: 100 Staked: 50 P/L: -37.75 Current bank: 62.25 Yield: -75.50% Bets: 25 Win: 0 Place: 2 Lose: 23 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted May 20, 2005 Share Posted May 20, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system Don't give up yet, Slap! Your performance graph follows the 'classic rise, fall, rise slightly higher, fall less and then rise more' pattern. Well, o.k, maybe I made that up. But my graph would be a fall followed by a fall, followed by a bigger fall. :( Keep going, tomorrow's another day, :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 20, 2005 Author Share Posted May 20, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system Thanks for the encouraging words, spreadman. The picks I'm trying here are in a rather different kind of race than most of the picks I've posted on Sports-Punter (surprisingly successfully, to me at least) since the beginning of the year, although the systems are related. I'm differentiating them on SP by labelling them "system bet" (the ones that have made money) and "large handicap system" (the ones I'm posting here). The only reason I've persisted with these handicap bets so long is that I tried the system for a few weeks before posting here, and despite the pathetic results I've had since posting them here, I'm still in profit overall (but it's getting close!). Since the horses I'm picking here are mostly big prices, long losing runs are to be expected. One big-priced winner could make a big difference. In my own mind, this system could go either way, so I'm not giving up just yet. I'm backing these horses myself to small stakes, but at present I wouldn't encourage anybody else to. I've posted 25 picks here so far, and as I said, I'll keep going for another 25 and see how it goes. I was surprised to see your post: I'd assumed everybody else had given up on this thread by now. :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted May 20, 2005 Share Posted May 20, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system This guy is so modest its untrue, he's taken apart the rest of the tipsters on Sports-Punter.com and has an unprecedented 400pt lead. :eek Currently the best tipster on the internet bar nobody, that is a fact and good to see you getting involved on PL too mate. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted May 20, 2005 Share Posted May 20, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system Yeah keep going slapdash.I back outsiders to win on the horses and bad runs can be long and very disheartening,but don't forget that every now and than things will be good and the profits will shoot up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted May 20, 2005 Share Posted May 20, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system I know how you feel, Slap, about no one following your thread. I am sure no one visits my Mercedes A Class thread, which is on hold until the start of the 2005-6 soccer season, after a horrific start. Paul R is telling it like it is - you have a good track record, and I have started to back your 'system' bets on the SP, with small stakes, expecting to have long losing runs. Just stick to your method and I am sure you'll hit a few winners. Punter's have a free choice as to whether they act upon your selections, or not, free will is just that. Free. Less philanthropic punters calling themselves 'experts' charge extortionate amounts of cash for tips that you can profit from only, if you lay them on the exchanges. A big up :ok to you! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 21, 2005 Author Share Posted May 21, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system This guy is so modest its untrue' date=' he's taken apart the rest of the tipsters on Sports-Punter.com and has an unprecedented 400pt lead.[/quote'] I wasn't being modest about the tips that earned me a 400pt lead on Sports-Punter. I was being modest about the system that from 25 picks has produced no winners and, um, two placed horses. :clap If you want me to be immodest, I could point out that my lead on Sports-Punter would be even bigger if I hadn't been posting these donkeys! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 21, 2005 Author Share Posted May 21, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 21/5/05 5.00 Catterick: Sion Hill (16/1 Sporting Odds) 1 point EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 21, 2005 Author Share Posted May 21, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 3.30 Haydock: Beaver Patrol (66/1 Betfred) 1 point EW. Would still qualify at the 50/1 available at UKBetting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 21, 2005 Author Share Posted May 21, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 4.10 Lingfield: Law Breaker (20/1 Paddy Power) 1 point EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 21, 2005 Author Share Posted May 21, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 3.20 Catterick: Sea Storm (33/1 Ladbrokes) 1 point EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 21, 2005 Author Share Posted May 21, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 3.20 Catterick: Kirkby's Treasure (18/1 Bet Direct) 1 point EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 21, 2005 Author Share Posted May 21, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 3.30 Haydock: Profit's Reality (25/1 Stanleybet) 1 point EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 21, 2005 Author Share Posted May 21, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 5.45 Stratford: Dominican Monk (25/1 Ladbrokes) 1 point EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 21, 2005 Author Share Posted May 21, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 5.45 Stratford: Conroy (33/1 William Hill) 1 point EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 21, 2005 Author Share Posted May 21, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system Looking up a bit so far today. Places at 33/1 and 20/1 out of the first five runners. And one of the losers was my 66/1 shot who started at 25/1 and was out of the places by a short head, 2 lengths clear of fifth, so I don't feel too bad about picking that. Three more to run today. I'll update later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 22, 2005 Author Share Posted May 22, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system Just the two placed. 0.75 point loss on the day. Starting bank: 100 Staked: 66 P/L: -38.50 Current bank: 63 Yield: -58.33% Bets: 33 Win: 0 Place: 4 Lose: 29 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 22, 2005 Author Share Posted May 22, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 22/5/05 4.20 Brighton: Absinther (25/1 William Hill) 1 point EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 22, 2005 Author Share Posted May 22, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 4.30 Southwell: Walsingham (20/1 Sporting Odds) 1 point EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 22, 2005 Author Share Posted May 22, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 5.20 Curragh: Athlumney Lad (14/1 Totesport) 1 point EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdog Posted May 22, 2005 Share Posted May 22, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system wahey! backed all three today £5 e/w - walsingham just won - got 19.0 on BF ! well done mate.:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 22, 2005 Author Share Posted May 22, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system wahey! backed all three today £5 e/w - walsingham just won - got 19.0 on BF ! well done mate.:clap Thanks, kdog. Nice to get the first wiiner. It was backed down to 8/1, as well, compared to the early price of 20/1. Looks like it may not be a good idea to back these at SP! Still not enough to put me in profit, but a move in the right direction. By the way, you say that you backed them e/w, and that you got 19.0 at BF. Does this means you backed the win and place separately? Just a warning that may not be the best way in the long run. The point of the system is to get early prices e/w where the price on the place half is a lot better than the place price available on Betfair. What price did you get for the place, if you don't mind me asking? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 22, 2005 Author Share Posted May 22, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system Two losers and a 20/1 winner. Good thing I got on Walsingham before a non-runner cut the race down to 15 runners and only three places, or I'd have left it out. :lol Starting bank: 100 Staked: 72 P/L: -17.50 Current bank: 82.50 (note: had this wrong in the last update) Yield: -24.31% Bets: 36 Win: 1 Place: 4 Lose: 31 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdog Posted May 22, 2005 Share Posted May 22, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system SelectionOdds Stake (£) Bid type Placed Profit/loss (£)Walsingham3.705.00Back22-May-05 15:54 13.50*Average odds: On Off Back subtotal:13.50Lay subtotal:0.00Market subtotal:13.50Commission @ 5.04%:0.68Net Market Total:12.82SelectionOdds Stake (£) Bid type Placed Profit/loss (£)Walsingham19.005.00Back22-May-05 15:54 90.00*Average odds: On Off Back subtotal:90.00Lay subtotal:0.00Market subtotal:90.00Commission @ 5%:4.50Net Market Total:85.50 19.0 on the win, 3.70 on the place... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 22, 2005 Author Share Posted May 22, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system So it's quite a difference. My 20/1 e/w bet at 1/4 the odds a place was the equivalent of 21.00 on the win half and 6.00 on the place half. It's really because you could only get around 3.70 for the place on Betfair that this was a selection. Though you'd have got paid if the horse had come 4th, which I wouldn't. ;) But anyway, glad you were on, and I hope you've managed to miss some of my many recent losers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billydilly Posted May 23, 2005 Share Posted May 23, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system This looks very much like Neil Smiths Value Horse Method. Is that correct?? billydilly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 23, 2005 Author Share Posted May 23, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system This looks very much like Neil Smiths Value Horse Method. Is that correct?? billydilly I don't know. I just tried searching for that with Google to find out what it is, but it seems I'd need to buy an ebook for £99 to find out. Can you give a brief description of it? My system is summarized in the first post in this thread, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if other people have had the same general idea before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 23, 2005 Author Share Posted May 23, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 23/5/05 4.50 Carlisle: Champain Sands (16/1 Ladbrokes) 1 point EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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