slapdash Posted September 14, 2005 Author Share Posted September 14, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 5.35 Yarmouth: Tipsy Lillie (40/1 Sporting Bet) 1 point EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 14, 2005 Author Share Posted September 14, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 5.35 Yarmouth: Miss Porcia (33/1 Sporting Bet) 1 point EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 14, 2005 Author Share Posted September 14, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system Sand Fairy just got a place, so I'm safe from going into the red today. Or I would have been, if I hadn't posted two more picks in the 5.35 ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 14, 2005 Author Share Posted September 14, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system Only Sand Fairy placed, for a loss of 10.75 points on the day, which puts me in the red. Starting bank: 100 Staked: 406 P/L: -1.00 (win -95.40, place +94.40) Current bank: 99.00 Yield: -0.25% Bets: 203 Win: 6 Place: 41 Lose: 156 However ... That makes my century. 100 consecutive selections without a winner!!! Now I've got that out of the way, maybe I'll go back to picking an occasional winner. Or shall I go for the double century? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 14, 2005 Author Share Posted September 14, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system I've been giving this some thought, and I think that this seems an appropriate time to put this system to rest ... in its present form ... at least for the time being. To sum up, after 203 bets the system has given a positive yield of about +46.5% on the place halves of the EW bets, but a negative yield of about -47% on the win halves, so roughly breaking even overall. I still feel it's surprising that EW bets with that high a positive yield on the places had such a large negative yield on the wins, and I would not be at all surprised if the win bets so far turned out to be just an unlucky spell if I continued. But maybe that's just the optimist's way of looking at it, and I should be thinking that the place returns must have been lucky given the win returns. (The figure for the place yield is statistically more reliable, though, because of the lower odds on the place half of the bets.) So I'm going to stop posting these selections here and on sports-punter.com, although I'll keep posting the selections of my other system (which has continued to be more consistently successful so far) on sports-punter.com, and I'm going to try to exploit the high place returns of these bets in a different way. Look out for a new thread in this forum shortly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
profar Posted October 30, 2005 Share Posted October 30, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system If you layed the win price at betfair im sure your system would be a lot more stable . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 30, 2005 Author Share Posted October 30, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system Hi, profar. Yes, I've considered that (and even done it occasionally, when I can lay at Betfair for a much shorter price). But there are some practical difficulties, especially for the longer priced horses: Often there's only a fairly small amount to lay on Betfair at reasonable prices. I'd need to keep quite a lot of cash in my Betfair account to cover the possibility of a win at long odds if I did lay for a reasonable amount. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peejaytwo Posted December 13, 2005 Share Posted December 13, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system hi slapdash, congrats on your great results. it has just struck me that there may possibly be another "edge" to your large handicap system. have you filtered your results taking into account races with 16 or more runners,i.e paying 1/4 odds for 4 places?i thought that the double whammy of getting 1/4 odds and 4 payout spots may improve your stats. sorry if this has been covered before,but i didnt read all the pages of your seletions.:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted December 13, 2005 Share Posted December 13, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system :clap As usual, the day I don't check your sportspunter tips...... :spank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted December 13, 2005 Author Share Posted December 13, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system Hi peejaytwo, Actually I do stick to handicaps with 16+ runners, although occasonally non-runners bring them under 16 runners after I've bet. I looked at applying the same system to smaller fields as well, but it's very rare to get any horses that qualify. I have a related system that applies to races with a short-priced favourite (or sometimes a race with two fairly short-priced horses where my selection is clear third favourite) which has actually been a lot more successful, but these races are rarely handicaps. Have you been following my selections on sports-punter.com? I make a distinction there between "large handicap system" and "system bet". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted December 13, 2005 Author Share Posted December 13, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system :clap As usual, the day I don't check your sportspunter tips...... :spank Could you warn me in advance when you're not going to check my tips? This could be the genesis of a very successful system! ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peejaytwo Posted December 14, 2005 Share Posted December 14, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system sorry slapdash,i hadnt realised that "large handicap" meant 16 runners or above.:\ id have thought that this would be more of a guide to value bets than the "system" of horses trading shorter in the place market in maidens/novice hurdles.shows how much i know! looked in at your bets for a little while now with just the odd dabble,shame i havnt been disciplined enough to bet level stakes eh? getting used to the forum a bit now,to be honest when i joined it looked too busy for me,i didnt know where to look cos theres so many headings/topics etc. best of luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted December 14, 2005 Share Posted December 14, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system Could you warn me in advance when you're not going to check my tips? This could be the genesis of a very successful system! ;) :lol or perhaps I should let you know when I back your tips, and you can lay them??!!! :spank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted December 14, 2005 Author Share Posted December 14, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system id have thought that this would be more of a guide to value bets than the "system" of horses trading shorter in the place market in maidens/novice hurdles.shows how much i know! I guess the point is that if there's a short-priced favourite, then the place odds on the other horses are almost always going to be much better value than the win odds. For example, in an 8-runner race with a hot favourite who will win 2 times out of three and seven other equal runners who will each win one time out of 21, the fair win odds will be 1/2 on the favourite and 20/1 on each of the others. But at one-fifth the odds, you get 4/1 on each of those seven runners to place, but since two of them will be placed (and maybe three), they will each have more than a 2 in 7 chance of getting a place, so the fair place odds would be less than 5/2, making the 4/1 look very good value. Of course, in practice the bookies won't offer fair win odds, but taking this as a starting point and finding a good way of being selective, it does seem possible to make this profitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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