slapdash Posted September 6, 2005 Author Share Posted September 6, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 2.40 Leicester: Saxon Star (20/1 Sporting Bet) 1 point EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 6, 2005 Author Share Posted September 6, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 3.10 Leicester: Torquemada (14/1 Paddy Power) 1 point EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 6, 2005 Author Share Posted September 6, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system Torquemada was placed and the other two lost. Starting bank: 100 Staked: 352 P/L: +23.03 (win -68.4, place +91.43) Current bank: 123.03 Yield: +6.54% Bets: 176 Win: 6 Place: 37 Lose: 133 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 7, 2005 Author Share Posted September 7, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 7/9/05 1.15 Doncaster: Zafantage (12/1 William Hill) 1 point EW. (I also had Dasheena at 50/1 with Coral or Bet365 in the same race, but won't count that here as they both cut the price between my posting on sports-punter.com and posting here.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 7, 2005 Author Share Posted September 7, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 2.25 Doncaster: Paradise Isle (33/1 William Hill) Woodcote (33/1 Bet Direct) 1 point EW on each. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 7, 2005 Author Share Posted September 7, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 2.25 Doncaster: Bond City (100/1 Sporting Bet) 1 point EW. Some other bookies have this as low as 25/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 7, 2005 Author Share Posted September 7, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system Four losers. Starting bank: 100 Staked: 360 P/L: +15.03 (win -72.4, place +87.43) Current bank: 115.03 Yield: +4.17% Bets: 180 Win: 6 Place: 37 Lose: 137 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 9, 2005 Author Share Posted September 9, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 9/9/05 4.30 Doncaster: Absent Friends (40/1 Coral) 1 point EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 9, 2005 Author Share Posted September 9, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 9/9/05 4.30 Doncaster: Absent Friends (40/1 Coral) 1 point EW. Lost. Starting bank: 100 Staked: 362 P/L: +13.03 (win -73.4, place +86.43) Current bank: 113.03 Yield: +3.60% Bets: 181 Win: 6 Place: 37 Lose: 138 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 10, 2005 Author Share Posted September 10, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 10/9/05 4.50 Chester: El Chaparral (12/1 Victor Chandler) Silverhay (16/1 UK Betting) 1 point EW on each. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 10, 2005 Author Share Posted September 10, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 3.40 Goodwood: Humble Opinion (25/1 Stan James) Red Spell (25/1 Stan James) 1 point EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 10, 2005 Author Share Posted September 10, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system Red Spell was placed, and the other three lost. Starting bank: 100 Staked: 370 P/L: +11.28 (win -77.4, place +89.68) Current bank: 111.28 Yield: +3.05% Bets: 185 Win: 6 Place: 38 Lose: 141 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 11, 2005 Author Share Posted September 11, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 11/9/05 3.20 Carlisle: Briery Lane (22/1 William Hill) 1 point EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 11, 2005 Author Share Posted September 11, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 5.00 Carlisle: Lady Misha (16/1 UKBetting) Lankawi (25/1 William Hill) 1 point EW on each. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 11, 2005 Author Share Posted September 11, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 5.25 Goodwood: Charlie Bear (33/1 William Hill) 1 point EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 11, 2005 Author Share Posted September 11, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system It won't have escaped the notice of anybody who's been following this thread that the profit figure has been in freefall for the last few weeks. Although at least I am still in profit. I've been looking at the figures to try to see what's up, and I've convinced myself that there is a promising silver lining. This will probably seem like I'm making excuses, but that's not my intention. I'm still betting on these myself, so it's not in my own financial interest to kid myself that it's worth betting if that's not the case. The last winner was way back on the 16th of July. Before that day, there were 98 selections, with 5 winners and 18 more horses placed. On the place half of the bets, there was a profit of 46.72 points, or a yield of +47.67%. On the win half, there was a loss of 7.4 points, or a negative yield of -7.55%. Since 16th July there have been 82 selections, of which 19 were placed. On the place half of the bets, there was a profit of 38.96 points, or a yield of +47.51%. Of course, the win half has made a loss of 82 points for a yield of -100%. So the place half of the bets have been doing just about as well during this fallow spell as they did before. Now why won't these pesky bookmakers take place-only bets? (You don't have to answer that!) So it looks as though the long-term profitability (or otherwise) of this system is down to how large the loss on the win half of the bets is. And unfortunately, it's going to take more than a couple of hundred bets to be confident about that, since, at the big prices that are typical, a winner or two more or less will make a big difference. I honestly don't have any idea whether this will show a profit in the long term. Certainly no winners in 82 bets is unlucky, but maybe the 5 winners in 98 bets before that were very lucky. Since the early prices I'm taking are almost always better than SP (and often considerably better), I'm optimistic that the big loss I've made on the win bets may turn out to have been unlucky, but who knows? Anyway, if anybody is betting on these, good luck but it's at your own risk. There are some ideas that may be more profitable. I could try laying the win on Betfair, but it's not so easy to lay a decent amount at big prices, since the amount available on BF to lay at a reasonable price is typically quite small on these horses, and in any case I'd need to keep quite a large balance in my BF account to cover the possibility of the horse winning. Another idea, that I'm fairly sure would be profitable in the (very) long term is to back these horses in EW doubles (or trebles). If the 47% yield on the place half holds up, then that's enough to make a small profit on EW doubles even if the win double never came in. The problem is that you'd need two or more selections on the same day where the same bookie has the best early price (this does happen, but it would cut down the number of bets considerably). Also I don't know how big a bet you could get on: I have been placing EW doubles and trebles with Sporting Bet/Sporting Odds on these selections and the selections of my original sports-punter.com system, mainly because they limit me to silly amounts on singles, and I can typically get £10 EW on at Sporting Bet and £5 EW at Sporting Odds. And finally, you'd have to wait for a win double to come in to win a meaningful amount, and since I've been waiting nearly two months to get just one winner, that could be a very long wait. Anyway, I have four selections running this afternoon, so let's hope this is the day things turn around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 11, 2005 Author Share Posted September 11, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system Briery Lane was placed and the other three lost. I think there should be a 5p Rule 4 deduction on Briery Lane, but I placed that bet in a WH shop, so I won't be sure of the amount until I pick up the winnings. If I'm wrong I'll update the figures later. So a 2.225 point profit (55.625% yield) on the place bets, but still waiting for that elusive winner, so an overall loss of 1.775 points on the day. Starting bank: 100 Staked: 378 P/L: +9.50 (win -81.40, place +91.90) Current bank: 109.50 Yield: +2.51% Bets: 189 Win: 6 Place: 39 Lose: 144 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 13, 2005 Author Share Posted September 13, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 13/9/05 5.00 Thirsk: Peace Lily (20/1 Stan James) Beverley Beau (33/1 Stan James) 1 point EW on each. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 13, 2005 Author Share Posted September 13, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system And a late one in the same race: 5.00 Thirsk: Grandos (40/1 Stan James) 1 point EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 13, 2005 Author Share Posted September 13, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system And another: 5.00 Thirsk: Blushing Russian (50/1 Stan James) 1 point EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 13, 2005 Author Share Posted September 13, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system Last one, I promise ... 5.00 Thirsk: Straffan (40/1 Stan James) 1 point EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted September 13, 2005 Share Posted September 13, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system Now why won't these pesky bookmakers take place-only bets? (You don't have to answer that!) Two ways round this. Most bookies will take place bets in-shop over the tote but the problem being you dont know what price you're getting until after the race. The other option is backing the place on Betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 13, 2005 Author Share Posted September 13, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system It wasn't a serious question! Since this system specifically looks for horses where the Betfair place price is very low compared to the place half of an EW bet at best early price, backing on Betfair is likely to eliminate most if not all of the profit. And I did look at Tote place returns once, but they were even worse. Actually, there is one conventional bookmaker (Centrebet) which takes fixed odds place-only bets. But their place prices are often less than the usual EW terms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 13, 2005 Author Share Posted September 13, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system Since this system specifically looks for horses where the Betfair place price is very low compared to the place half of an EW bet at best early price, backing on Betfair is likely to eliminate most if not all of the profit. E.g., the place prices I'm getting on my five runners in the Thirsk 5.00 are 6.00, 9.25, 11.00, 13.50 and 11.00. In comparison, the place prices currently available on Betfair are 4.50, 7.20, 7.40, 7.80 and 6.60. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 13, 2005 Author Share Posted September 13, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system Beverley Beau came 4th, making a profit of 4.25 points on the place bets and a 5 point loss on the win bets for an overall loss of 0.75 points. And that brings my run to 91 without a winner ... I'm looking for the century here! I noticed that there was a discrepancy in my last P/L figures P/L: +9.50 (win -81.40, place +91.90) I tracked the mistake back to 10/9/05. The win and place figures are correct (I hope), but the overall profit should have been +10.50. After today: Starting bank: 100 Staked: 388 P/L: +9.75 (win -86.40, place +96.15) Current bank: 109.75 Yield: +2.51% Bets: 194 Win: 6 Place: 40 Lose: 148 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 14, 2005 Author Share Posted September 14, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 14/9/05 4.55 Beverley: Unlimited (25/1 Stan James) Blythe Spirit (33/1 Stan James) Melandre (33/1 Stan James) 1 point EW on each. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 14, 2005 Author Share Posted September 14, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 4.10 Sandown: Sand Fairy (25/1 Ladbrokes) 1 point EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 14, 2005 Author Share Posted September 14, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 4.10 Sandown: Seasons Estate (33/1 Blue Square) 1 point EW. I'm going into the red if all today's selections lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 14, 2005 Author Share Posted September 14, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 5.35 Yarmouth: Phi Phi (33/1 Stan James) 1 point EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 14, 2005 Author Share Posted September 14, 2005 Re: Large handicap early price system 5.35 Yarmouth: Flame Queen (40/1 Sporting Bet) 1 point EW. Sand Fairy just got a place, so I'm safe from going into the red today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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