DanV89 Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 3.45 - Qipco 2000 Guineas - Elm Park - 12/1 Looks a wide open renewal and just interested to see what people think about Elm Park's chances as all the talk seems to have been about the likes of Gleneagles/Estidhkaar at the head of the market. Elm Park is one of only 2 C&D winners in the field and is the joint highest rated horse in the field along with Ivawood who was disappointing on his return last weekend over 7f and has further stamina to prove, whereas Elm Park is proven over the trip. I've read and heard that ideally he would like softer ground but he did win here back in September in the Juddmonte on good to firm. Just think 12/1 is a good price for a horse that seems to have a lot going for it and interested in others thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 Re: 2000 Guineas - Saturday 2nd May Is Elm Park more of a Derby horse ? The Racing Post Trophy that he won last season is usually a pointer to a horse being a stayer rather than a miler Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 Re: 2000 Guineas - Saturday 2nd May just finished final ratings estdkaar 101.43 intilaaq 100.43 Gleneagles 100.43 you have to respect Gleneagles for o brien but zero value in him now especially against these top two who have posted fast times and have perfect conditions and fitness advantage so no point in opposing them today .....estidkaar should win easily on paper but this race isn't so cut and dry ..especially if the horse has improved as hannon states he will then he could already be home and hosed .....intilaaq is an interesting horse in that hes lightly raced and improving fast .....the fact that have supplemented him at huge cost is enough for me to take the hint ......already got big ew bet on estikkar at 14/1 so ill have a saver on intillaaq ew and hope the fav bums out on the day already backed esitidkaar ew 14/1 5pts ew saver intilaaq 10/1 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 Re: 2000 Guineas - Saturday 2nd May 3.45 Newmarket: QIPCO 2000 Guineas (Group 1) (1m) (C4) 19 runners line up for the first Classic race of the season, the 2000 Guineas. Richard Hannon Jnr won this last year with 40/1 outsider Night Of Thunder and he is 4-handed this time round. His best chance looks to be with Estidhkaar who was a good second in the Greenham Stakes on his reappearance. Stablemate Ivawood was back in third the mount of Richard Hughes. The favourite is Gleneagles trained by Aidan O’Brien but he hasn’t been seen since his disqualification at Longchamp last October. He has drawn stall 16 which may not be ideal either. Estidhkaar might have most to fear from the French challenger Territories who won last month on his seasonal debut and represents Andre Fabre and Godolphin. Selection: Estidhkaar 8/1 Betfred Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 Re: 2000 Guineas - Saturday 2nd May I obviously didn't follow the top 2yo races last season because I'm looking down the field and none of the names mean much to me...........:unsure some general thoughts.... I wonder if the fact that both Hannon and O'Brien are going in mob handed indicates that they have no outstanding horse in the yard so they're chucking numbers at it. Having said that they both regularly run more than one Also........wouldn't Joseph be on the yard's number one ?........Ol Man River is twice the odds of Gleneagles Hannon usually leaves a lot to work with after the trials.........think of Sky Lantern, Night of Thunder. Both improved hand over fist from to trial to Guineas........so I wouldn't rule out Ivawood or Moheet Any horse can lose a race but I'm sceptical of horses that have lost 2 or more races being potential winners (Cockney Rebel had lost 2 but most of the winners have only lost 1 or are unbeaten). If you discount horses who have lost two or more times from this years field you're not left with very many Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 Re: 2000 Guineas - Saturday 2nd May Catch up Trotter, Ryan Moore is the number one at Ballydoyle Joseph had problems with his weight, cant ride half the horses anymore, will go jump racing eventually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 Re: 2000 Guineas - Saturday 2nd May Must admit that I did assume that Joseph would still have the choice whilst he was still riding on the flat.......... Given his weight problems I think it's a good sign for Ol Man River that he's starved himself to get on it........would he bother to do that in order to ride the stable second or third string ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 Re: 2000 Guineas - Saturday 2nd May I noticed another one of O'Brien's young kids had a ride the other day, thats three of them coming up fast behind Joseph. Anne-Marie, Donnacha & Sarah. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 Re: 2000 Guineas - Saturday 2nd May ive always seen ivawood as a 6f sprinter ......don't think he wants a mile .....may prove me wrong but I think that's why he was so far behind in trial ...just beyond him hes a speedster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 Re: 2000 Guineas - Saturday 2nd May Just looking at the horses that are unbeaten or have only lost once...... Elm Park - Derby type, wants soft ground?, might be outpaced here and stay on late into 4th. Gleneagles - tremendous 2yo campaign, didn't like the way he wandered in the finish in France. Too short now, there's just something about him I'm not keen on. Maybe because he's already run 6 times and I'd prefer more lightly raced types for the Guineas. Intilaaq - impressive winner a couple of weeks ago but step up from maiden company to a Classic. Celestial Path - quite like this one as an EW shot at a big price. Finished 3rd behind Elm Park in the Racing Post Trophy but looks more a miler than that one and might reverse placings now that some time has passed and on better ground Ol Man River - O'Brien, unbeaten, only 2 runs, won a group 2 easily on his 2nd start. Cost nearly 3 million euros. Bred for the Derby but trainer not sure he'll get 12 furlongs. Apparently the sire, Montjeu, has a poor record with 3yos over a mile, they tend to be stayers, but this one has a dual 1000 gns winner as his dam so he might get mile class from her Moheet - I like this one as an EW shot. Won his maiden by 7L last year and ran 3rd in the Craven (went off favourite) as his trial. Hannon's top 3yo often get beaten in the trials then come on a ton. That trial was slowly run and he was caught out the back when they quickened up. Should get a good pace tomorrow and I reckon he can run into a place at least Going for 3 against the field, all at EW prices Ol Man River, EW 8/1 wm hill Moheet - EW 20/1 bet365 Celestial Path - EW 20/1 wm hill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
santos_ Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Re: 2000 Guineas - Saturday 2nd May It's pretty tough to split some at the top of the market and now a few fancied horses haven't shone it does make it a bit easier to narrow down the list. I did like Elm Park but not on this ground so unless there is rain he's up against it I think. Gleneagles sets a good standard and probably deserves favouritism but I'm actually backing the other O'Brien horse in Ol Man River. Really liekd his two runs last year and I think he might be the one to offer more this season as a 3 year old. Ol Man River - 1pts win, 7/1 BetVictor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Re: 2000 Guineas - Saturday 2nd May Did anyone see the 'Virtual 2000 Gns' on The Morning Line? They had Brigadier Gerard beating El Gran Senor with Frankel and Dancing Brave 3rd and 4th I think if they ran that race four times you'd have four different winners ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanV89 Posted May 2, 2015 Author Share Posted May 2, 2015 Re: 2000 Guineas - Saturday 2nd May Elm Park now a confirmed non-runner. Going to go with a but of an outsider instead in Celestial Path at 22/1 (BetVic). The draw is a bit of a concern but should relish the ground and 22/1 looks a good price and should have ew claims. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tipsterix Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Re: 2000 Guineas - Saturday 2nd May I think Territories is the one they all have to beat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tipsterix Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Re: 2000 Guineas - Saturday 2nd May I was impressed by his blistering turn of foot when he landed the Group 3 Prix de Fontainebleau over a mile on good ground at Longchamp last month and I trust André Fabre wouldn't travel him across The Channel without justified ambitions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arsenalfh Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Re: 2000 Guineas - Saturday 2nd May Although Territories is by Invincible Spirit I didn't think he was speedy enough as a 2 year old and there's a bit of stamina on the dams side as she raced up to 1m 5f so I think he might be a French Derby horse. However he was very impressive upped to a mile in the Fontainbleu quickening clear off a slow pace so maybe he's improved significantly from 2 to 3. His original target was the French Guineas and I'm guessing Godolphin supplemented him in the English version after Belardo disappointed in the Dewhurst. He'll probably get a stronger gallop here than in France so that's another plus but I just wasn't attracted by prices of 6/1 and 5/1. I would love to see him over 1m 2f in the French Derby which could be his ideal trip. It's interesting that Aidan says Ol' Man River is a lot more like Camelot than his other Montjeus so perhaps he's taken more from his dam Finsceal Beo. They say he's very quick and may not get the Derby trip as well which again supports the view that he's more like his dam. As others have mentioned, it has to be significant that Joseph is getting down to 9 stone to take the ride as he knows the horses inside out. With many firms paying 4 places he looks a good each way bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterX Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Re: 2000 Guineas - Saturday 2nd May An open looking race as always and a hard puzzle to solve. Gleneagles is the worthy favourite and has shown enough already especially when impressively winning at Longchamp (albeit later demoted, Territories second). But he's easy to back and considering he was 2/1 acouple weeks ago, expected to be 6/4 fav he's now as big as 9/2 fav in some places. Neither Gleneagles or Ol Man River have had a run this year but I'm not concerned about that. Of the Ballydoyle pair, I like Ol Man River, classy looking winner of his first two races, I'm sure they will have him bang on for this. Out of Montjeu he's the type of horse that could be a short price for the Derby. At 8/1 for this he's a big player & I'm happy to back him with Joseph O'Brien onboard who comes in for alot of flack, I personally think he's a top jock. Estidkhaar ran a blinder in second in the Greenham, that was a very fast run race, very fast ground and a strong tailwind would've helped. He wasn't stopping and the extra furlong won't be a problem. I make him a serious contender. Hannons other horse, Ivawood is a very good horse & I think it would be foolish to completed rule him out although his form is in sprints & he's got a lot to do to reverse form with stablemate Estidkhaar. It's hard to rule anything out. Some at the other end of the betting like Capella Sannsevero are interesting, who changed hands for a big sum last year is a big price at 80/1. My bets: Estidkhaar Ol Man River both around the 8/1 mark Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Re: 2000 Guineas - Saturday 2nd May He's called SIR Ryan Moore for a reason. Pass the Gravy boat please......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arsenalfh Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Re: 2000 Guineas - Saturday 2nd May Knew Estidhkaar was in trouble when Hanagan was at him out of the stalls and he never really travelled. Ground too quick for Ol Man River apparently. 14th and 18th for my picks.:rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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