ldtips Posted May 11, 2015 Author Share Posted May 11, 2015 Re: Long term profits selections. You are backing Newcastle to be relegated, But are also backing them to beat QPR. You do know that if they beat QPR, they will be safe? How can they be safe? If Hull wins at Tottenham they are still two points behind only with superior goal difference. I assume Tottenham, Newcaste and Sunderland wins next round and even if Newcaste will get a draw with West Ham (Allardyce no way letting Newcastle win) they are down if Hull beats MU (no worries about it). Especially game Tottenham-Hull is crucial. Hull knows it. The same case - do or die for Hull Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldtips Posted May 11, 2015 Author Share Posted May 11, 2015 Re: Long term profits selections. * another misspell I assume Hull, Newcastle and Sunderland wins next round. They will win because in the era of new TV contract fight will be tenser as usual Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldtips Posted May 11, 2015 Author Share Posted May 11, 2015 Re: Long term profits selections. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jake_Livermore http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Huddlestone http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Dawson_(footballer) 1/3 of Hull is on loan from Tottenham, especially key player Huddlestone. Relations are rather friendly with these moves and Tottehnam should be no obstacle. Hull is favourite to go down because of points and teams to play. Newcastle is my favourites because of worst quality of football, goal difference and Sam Allardyce. Disastrous night from NHL, loser is on 29/16 run but NHL as I said no my picks, just fading, NBA I sit down and assess myself and almost every pick is good. I am surprised it is so predictable game, maybe I am newbie there but so far it works. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldtips Posted May 11, 2015 Author Share Posted May 11, 2015 Re: Long term profits selections. Hull are not going to get 6 points from White Hart Lane and Manchester United. The question remains: Why back a team to be relegated and then back them to win at the weekend? It makes no sense whatsoever. I was on Newcastle last weekend and they failed to win, they can always fail on Saturday. In that case they are doomed. I will not wait until weekend for bigger odds, if Newcastle fail to win at QPR odds will be surely no better! Although I strongly believe Newcastle will get points from QPR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Especially game Tottenham-Hull is crucial. Hull knows it. The same case - do or die for Hull So the match with Burnley was crucial, too, yet they managed to screw it up. Oh, yes, I forgot, sorry - they are probably not in friendly relationships, bookies set up another trap, and match took place in Saturday, so they lost. :sad Anyhow, I came here as I'm quite curious to see your update of the bank after elections and yesterday's picks, when can we expect it? I can't wait to see how goes this "one of the most successfull threads here"! :) And ONE OF MY MOST IMPORTANT SENTENCES. NOTHING HAPPENS TWICE. Aston Villa last week at home against unmotivated oppolent and they won' date=' thank you I was on their side. Now the same case: Aston Villa at home against unmotivated opponen, everyone's logic is obvious home win. I fell int trap of such thinking and lost spectacularly this is potential trap.[/quote'] And I'll tell you the secret: don't forget to oppose Aston Villa next time they play "at home against unmotivated opponen" - NOTHING HAPPENS THREE TIMES IN A ROW! :p In my opinion, the only difference between Martingale and your system in last several days is that you don't increase the stakes (although it may be a matter of time, too, given your stake of 20/10 on one of the earlier bets, the one with Cameron, I think) - logic is absolutely the same, you bet on something not because of analysis, but because you believe the luck will turn around, and event that is considered as unlikely by both bookmakers and general betting public will occur... :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldtips Posted May 11, 2015 Author Share Posted May 11, 2015 Re: Long term profits selections. No worries. Yes Cameron was a setback for me but bear in mind I won big in first week of the thread and could afford to risk bravely and it did not succeed. It is part of life. It could be very big win, it was not but still I do not regret and I will take risky bets as there is no other way ahead to be profitable long term. Picks might look crazy, but you must take longshots to win in long term. Long term is months in a row while my situation is winning big in first week, then throw much at political scenario and then unsuccessful weekend of football picks. We know 66% increase of bankroll is impossible to keep week by week. I said before it will be a lot of missed picks, the most important is balance at the end, not really see the point to sit on the neck because of specific pick, with average odds I take no way every theory will work always. People will sometimes win at bookies (short term) but people lose in the long run. Look at Kalloni they settled for a draw and bookies like bet365 have 2,20 opening odds for a draw. I guess they lost big, next time they will react. Since I went for work last week I had horrible run here, must continue unemployment, waiting for two large withdrawals and try not to work this week again. Every pick is different and you are as good as your last pick. I'm afraid priority will be picks today but I should have time this evening to update everything with authorised NBA picks which are almost 90% correct and I like the most. Throughout the day hard work as picks to be 'fried' O. Berdych to win ATP Madrid odds 23. I watched a lot of tennis games last two weeks, this does not make me an expert but know much more about current for of players. Djokovic is a favourite but life would be too easy if everytime favourite won. I think Djokovic goes full steam for winning French Open and I don't think he will fight till death here. OK maybe he wins but priority is clear. French Open. And he will win in France this year. Curious how he performs here but this is not priority. From his half he will have to play Federer and Nadal. Both are ageing and will definitely not have power to win both French Open and Rome. Most dangerous Djokovic and Nishikori and even Murray are on the second part of the draw. In general I don't believe players like Nadal, Federer, Murray for different reasons (health, tactic,tiredness) max in this tournamet. While Djokovic is a main favourite he can stumble, odds are maximum low 1,87 at him due to performances this year but... ok we will see. I need a shot to cancel Cameron losses and I am taking it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldtips Posted May 11, 2015 Author Share Posted May 11, 2015 Re: Long term profits selections. Rome. What a mis spell again. Of course Rome. If some one things my picks are brain damaging not visiting place is the simplest of solution. I can discuss single picks while general remarks like 'nonsence' are not constructive. Especially from people which have not contributing (I wish to see their successful winning big thread but google tells me 'no result found'). I do not think putting own thoughts in own thread is the most damaging thing in the wrld and if someone thinks I am loser solution is one - play reverse get rich. You will have to have a lot of luck. Good day. I will be back at evening unless something interesting occur Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Re: Long term profits selections. Haha' date=' I'm glad Idtips has so many people on their case for writing so much nonsense. I agree, an updated bankroll is long overdue. Idtips was very quick to tell us the bankroll when things were going well after all. I'm sure they will find some way to wriggle out of it given that they have stopped numbering the bets in the original format they will probably claim only numbered bets count towards the bankroll.[/quote'] Well, to be honest, I believe my posts in these thread were not not very polite, and I very rarely criticize performance of other punters – no gambler is safe from losing. Though, I was irritated by his sentence in his very first post, „This will be one of the most successful threads here“, and his attitude, he acted like we are all children and betting-ignorant here, and only waited for him to show us how to bet, so I decided I would give him a run for his money! :) As you say, he was very quick to update any progress of the bank, so why cannot be quick to update the bank when it plumets – how can you place bets today, when we don't have a clue if you have any money in the bank at all?! Except, as Skittle would say, in case it is Monopolly money... :lol Yes, I also thought he would try to avoid these losing bets, to say „you see, they were not numbered, so they don't count, but he promised: so let's see if he will keep up to his word! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skittle Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Re: Long term profits selections. Thanks, mentioned in dispatches. :ok :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldtips Posted May 11, 2015 Author Share Posted May 11, 2015 Re: Long term profits selections. Time to back to football. I don't know really how someone can put so much energy at sitting on someone's neck instead of beating bookies alone. The answer is you can not show me your examples as what you say is right at the first sight, someone still after month, years, finish in minus miraculously. Already two NBA picks fried which is the best answer for any doubter, those are my own picks and I can't really do much if an NHL guy has 28-15 run. Could be 130 units down in two weeks but I guess I am much less from hockey. Back to football For today: Atvidaberg - Djurgarden away win 2,15 many bookies Hammarby - Sundsvall home win 1,65 5dimes Siauliai - Zalgiris away win 1,36 Doxxbet Astra - Otelul away win 15 pinnacle Skonto Riga win (1,25)+ Dinamo Minsk win (1,75) 2,19 betway Inter Turku - Jaro home win 1,67 SJK win (2) + HJK win (1,22) 2,44 William Hill This are afternoon picks, most probably will be evening football and definitely NBA own assessed on the card. A lot of favourite's win make good for me this time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldtips Posted May 11, 2015 Author Share Posted May 11, 2015 Re: Long term profits selections. NHL Tampa Bay - Montreal Montreal ML 2,4 bet365 NBA Washington - Atlanta Washington win 2,7 NBA Memphis - Golden State away win 1,59 NBA Memphis - Golden State over 197,5 2,17 5dimes Atlanta is utter rubbish, Washington can easily beat them again, absolutely no reason Atlanta to be favourite again. Throughout the playoffs Atlanta Hawks very little reminds superteam of the regular season. Unconvincing win over no name team New Jersey Nets with many games down to the wire, big trouble in this series from the start. They only won Game 2 when Washington was a bit more relaxet. Game 3 Washington without John Wall, everyone expected easy Atlanta comeback, somehow they got beaten again. Final score (buzzer beater by Paul Pierce) is not representative at all as Atlanta was losing by something like 20 points and they came back to draw. This is not going to happen again, Washington will be more careful and they have veterans able to win again today. Atlanta is wobbling and hard to believe they are NBA Finals contender. Washington if play carefully have a great chance to win again and they should do it. Home win. Biggest problem of Washington are vulnerability for mistakes like attaacking foul or turnover in key moments, when they eliminate it they win very clearly. It is not 'value on Memphis'. It must be a reason for such low odds despite they lost Game 2 (almost no one expected) and Game 3 (majority did not expect). I think majority follows the tend in general and we see odds still lower on Golden State. If someone expect Golden State to recover it was Game 3. Now 'logic' is rather home win to win. And this is why Warriors will be a winner today for me. Memphis wins are combination of Conley heroic (will not be fully fit) and Golden State awful 3pt percentage (this is going to improve). Golden State win 1,52. Over 196,5 2,03. Golden State must and will improve their threepointers. No tragedy also for Memphis if they lose while very hard position for Warriors if they will Golden State will win today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldtips Posted May 12, 2015 Author Share Posted May 12, 2015 Re: Long term profits selections. ATP Rome Cilic to beat Garcia Lopez 1,78 Marathonbet, 1,76 in big limit bookies. Back in a few hours things to do in Walsall ;) When I will come back Cilic's win will determine my day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Re: Long term profits selections. The answer is you can not show me your examples as what you say is right at the first sight' date=' someone still after month, years, finish in minus miraculously.[/quote'] Of course I cannot, I'm not anywhere near as good as you are! :) But I also have never bragged about my betting performance, so I have nothing to prove. To be honest, it's difficult to remember anyone who bragged as bombastic as you... :lol Hope we'll get bank update after you get back from Walsall?! :) I have another question now, although I doubt you'll answer, just like with my previous questions. You stated yesterday that "you must take longshots to win in long term", the statement I challenged. But majority of your picks after that were so-called "banker bets", like Zalgiris at 1.36, or odds of 1.25 and 1.22 in accas, lol. And you earned some profit yesterday just because of those bets, as your longshots miserably failed again. Your only NBA win yesterday was also at odds-on. So what did happen, why did you suddenly change your mind and settled down for shots that cannot provide long term profit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldtips Posted May 12, 2015 Author Share Posted May 12, 2015 Re: Long term profits selections. OK soon calculation but Troicki to beat Cilic is another bet 1,85. Will renumerate and since then no discussion about philosophy as winnings at bookie is my aim and hopefully your. I do not make personal remarks I expect the same. I am the host here on this thread and I should have more influence on how it looks as some discussion does not really help but I appeal discussion about specific picks or no discussion. We are adult, you will not change my opinion, I will not change your, respect and continue. Calculation in about 30 mins plus analysis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldtips Posted May 12, 2015 Author Share Posted May 12, 2015 Re: Long term profits selections. Last bank update 442,1 Since then 72. -10 Newcastle failed to win (relegation shot is natural consequence) 73. + 7,5 Newcastle under 74. -10 Aston Villa beat West Ham. OK what can I say bookies paid a lot on it, as they paid on Barcelona win 75. -10 Juventus - Cagliari - Juve should save themselves, played with total reserves, this was vulture shot they will pay for CL performance while have championship secured. They miraculaously scored and Cagliari only equalised (should have won) still 'banker' failed 76. -10 Rosenborg shot - missed this time, I will try again in future 77. -10 Barcelona shot - I will hunt on Barcelona loss, Moyes is a jerk but sometimes he strikes out of the blue, they have beaten Barcelona in first game, Barcelona in a middle of CL clash could fail 78. -10 Balikesirspor what a wild game. They have opposition on plate having penalty and red card from first minute, failing to score penalty, conceding penalty few minutes later. Got red card themselves, still equalised and while on being on a comeback lost in 95th minute. Balikesirspor win is a natural shot for today. 79. -4 I treat is a four 5 units bet which three have lost (die QPR) and still blowout of those jokers cashed in at odds 3,2 as some kind of consolation. QPR had to win, they lost something like 100-200 millions thanks to their politics, not only this game. Go to Conference then, for weekend they should give points to Newcastle. 80. + 8,8 Liverpool not to lose was a winning bet, simple 81. -10 Podbeskidzie coming from behind into 2-1 loss of concentration and conceded equaliser, amateurish polish league, what to say 82. -10 Greek accumulator based on Kalloni draw and Levadiakos win (these results were known before game but I gave all matches into one pot as Greeks are not more than 10 Units trustable). And missed only by one goal - PAOK failed to concede 83. -10 Veria totally gave up season, did not make surprise, this club is Greeks QPR will be dissolved and rebuilt, certain relegation for fixing games on the way as court proceedings are on its way 84. -10 Molde big win, unsuccessful shot for away win 85. -10 Viking drew so mass pick in 86. -10 Hockey loser on the run 87. -10 Hockey loser on the run 88. -10 Hockey loser on the run 89. + 8,6 Cleveland blowout of Chicago after losing first game 90. + 11,5 Djurgarden win 91. -10 Hammarby lost 92. + 3,6 Zalgiris win 93. -10 Otelul lost 94. + 11,9 Skonto + Dunamo Minsk win 95. + 6,7 Inter Turku win 96. + 14,4 SJK + HJK wins 97. -10 Washington lost 98. + 5,9 Golden State won 99. -10 Golden Satte improved greatly on threepointers but over not delivered (80 points in second half, game was killed too early) -85,1 Units which makes bank 357 Units As far as recent bad run is concerned I can see main reason was work distraction in the last week, unsuccessful shots on teams like Barcelona, Juventus, Rosenborg, Astra, what made big profits in first week failed this time (it could). Anyway this is a long time thread , staying away from work secured and it is a good moment to jump into bandwagon (or the cliff if you think) as there is no excuses from now on, another week on the way up. Some picks like Bayern or Balikesirspor still needs to clear bills for me and pick 102. Bayern - Barcelona Bayern - 1,5 5,20 Marathonbet 103. Bayern - Barcelona over 2,5 1,65 104. Kasimpasa - Balikesirspor away win 6,98 105. Basaksehir - Sivasspor away win 7 Guardiola is not going to be sacked. He will also not go for City. He said 200 000 001 times he will stay at leadt one more year with Bayern. And both sides will have to eat this sour grapes and suffer another yer under Guardiola (Bayern) and suffer another year in Bayern (Guardiola) If Bayern will fail today to go throu whose fault it is? Guardiola or not? I would blame 85-90% Guardiola as he is manager responsible for managing the team and all the injuries are somehow puzzling. There are just too many of them Partially reason is fragile players like Robben. Defeat with Augsburg is meaningless here. Even if all the players played they made a circus and did not take this game seriously. Augburg is their regional friend, they helped them to get Europe, cities are maybe 45-50 km apart, and also helped them last year to avoid relegation. No reason to panic Bayern lost with full squad to no namers. Yesterday Arsenal put the best team and lost at home, put a lot of effort but lost and Bayern lost without effort. Everything can happen. Three scenarios for this game: - Bayern win and going through - Bayern win, fight bravely till the end but winning like 2-0 3-1 and still eliminated with heads up - Bayern humiliation at home and losing game. Losing three goals in 15 minutes is a big shame for Bayern and Guardiola, whatever you can say about Messi etc Bayern are no gherkins. Last week public favourite Barcelona won game, bookies paid a lot, this time Bracelona is public favourite again, but they have cushion, even if they lose 1-4 they are through. BTS is a good bet, Barcelona score and are through, over and Bayern handicap win are good bet, cause both sides will be happy (Bayern slightly less) Bayern through seems impossible but many impossible things have happened before. Bayern -1,5 5,20 Over 2,5 1,65 For me. I believe in Bayern win as it could do for Barca, save partially Guardiola and Bayern supporters will be cooled. However even for me it's hard to believe Bayern will overturn such a huge loss and will get eliminated. Losing today will put big ice bucket mass challenge gangbang on a head of Guardiola. It is his personal responsibility to get a result today and no excuses. Bayern win If Bayern fails to win it is Guardiola's responsibility as simple as that. We will see if public will win twice in a row. Much 'smart money' went for Basaksehir last time, and I guess it's going again. Let's see and be ready for bookies to strike back and cancel my recent losses Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldtips Posted May 12, 2015 Author Share Posted May 12, 2015 Re: Long term profits selections. Of course I cannot, I'm not anywhere near as good as you are! :) But I also have never bragged about my betting performance, so I have nothing to prove. To be honest, it's difficult to remember anyone who bragged as bombastic as you... :lol Hope we'll get bank update after you get back from Walsall?! :) I have another question now, although I doubt you'll answer, just like with my previous questions. You stated yesterday that "you must take longshots to win in long term", the statement I challenged. But majority of your picks after that were so-called "banker bets", like Zalgiris at 1.36, or odds of 1.25 and 1.22 in accas, lol. And you earned some profit yesterday just because of those bets, as your longshots miserably failed again. Your only NBA win yesterday was also at odds-on. So what did happen, why did you suddenly change your mind and settled down for shots that cannot provide long term profit? Answering this. The odds I will play is my decision, I go for a winner, no matter odds, but odds more then 2 needs reasoning in my opinion so when it is bigger I try to write a reason as odds over 9/10 using English odds format have less than 50% to cash in theoretically. As for Zalgiris I will not write a reason why even 1,36 was worth to go in a single bet as you may not believe or reject . Relax, chill out, season not even started, clay tennis is my worst area of punting, still on profit, grass season is lovely (Wimbledon, Hertogenbosch, Halle, Queens, England grass season in general) and judge after weeks, months, etc. My problem is I made huge winnings in the first week, we know it is impossible to keep in the long run, stay calm and let's make consitent profits. Not much time to answering all the questions I will surely come back to this in free time. Now focus firm on picks as teams like Basaksehir, Bayern etc disappointed me (and bookies) and I expect payback. Simple. I went away from home Cilic disappointed me and while I am back and have time to doping my player no way will give a game away. Already Troicki one set up, should win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldtips Posted May 12, 2015 Author Share Posted May 12, 2015 Re: Long term profits selections. Everything will be settled, probably today evening as I will be busy until end of Barca game, still things like shopping etc Troicki won battle, game could go either way of course but it was battle. Cilic lost without balling and forget about him Turkish game was strange HT2/FT1 Balikesirspor should be much better score for away side 106. Mjondalen - Rosenborg home win 8 Coral. Time to give me some joy Rosenborg. No reason for home win is a reason to bet for me in this case. No tragedy if Rosenborg have a rest today. Rosenborg have a bills to clear with me and away is easier than at home 107. Karabukspor - Eskisehirspor home win 1,78 SBOBET - win or die Karabukspor. But rather win ;) 108. Domzale - Koper away win 7,9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldtips Posted May 12, 2015 Author Share Posted May 12, 2015 Re: Long term profits selections. Any questions now? :clap I would gladly answer. I guess people from thread have no idea what happened today so you can bring them to get a lesson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldtips Posted May 12, 2015 Author Share Posted May 12, 2015 Re: Long term profits selections. I think very big kick in teeth to all the doubters today but I guess it will be no congratulations for a day what has been. No worries I know this is current world works. Really put a lot of effort into finding successful big odds pick and warned today could be the beginning of a long way up as reason (work in last week) for distraction is over and believe me discussing in general result brilliant odds opportunity can be missed. Take a look at last Balikesirspor's game http://www.livescore.com/soccer/turkey/super-lig/balikesirspor-vs-istanbul-basaksehir/1-1763227/ and tell me everything was clean. Ok it could be but if it was Balikesirspor lost very unlucky. I told much 'smart money' went for Balikesirspor to lose this game, probably most of these people went against them today. And bang. Thing is I watched this game as it was in my centre of interest and I can say Balikesirspor fought both games, they just had hot head last game with game on plate. Did not score penalty vs 10 men Basaksehir and then things went worse. Rosenborg - No reason for home win is a reason to bet for me in this case. I messed something up with bank update, there is definitely NHL game on the card today and from NBA will be 109. NHL Tampa Bay - Montreal Montreal ML 2,4 >bet365 waiting for the famous NHL loser to strike back again 110. NBA Cleveland - Chicago home win 1,45 5dimes 111. NBA - Houston- Clippers home win 2,35 5dimes Well considering team potentials and LeBron vs Derrick Rose duel I have no doubt who should sweep the other one. Wondering how Chicago stole game away at Cleveland but LeBron James is a class above. After losing Game 1 Cleveland swept Chicago wit a margin even I did not expect, then two buzzer beater game. Things are getting serious and time for LeBron to accelerate in decisive moments and for god's sake less ignorance and arrogance as they could be 1-3 with his complacence. He is a great player but he has a zig zag games: one game he is hero, another one zero. Even when he got buzzer beater he was bad overall and I expect from him to turn the fifth gear today as stronger team should make a step ahead. As for Houston game I have hesitation. Watching all the games and Quote 'If you have watched one game of this series, you would never consider betting on the Rockets. Clippers are on a mission and the Rockets won't stop them.' I fully agree. But they lead 3-1 and have a lot of air. Just like Barcelona today, they can afford to lose, no tragedy, they still keep home court match and if they want they will beat Houston convincingly. No chance if it was one game - winner goes through for Houston. But they are losing 1-3 and it is air to not put 100% effort, but I reserve right to say tomorrow if Clippers really want to win this game, they will win it. Up to them, I am not sitting in their mind, I can assume they will step back as Rosenborg today. Away it is easier.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldtips Posted May 12, 2015 Author Share Posted May 12, 2015 Re: Long term profits selections. So the match with Burnley was crucial, too, yet they managed to screw it up. Oh, yes, I forgot, sorry - they are probably not in friendly relationships, bookies set up another trap, and match took place in Saturday, so they lost. :sad Hull - Burnley game was both teams fight like dogs. Burnley did not know they will go down even if they win in that moment. Tottenham - Hull game is only one side motivated = Tottenham is on holiday for ages if you see their result. Harry Kane is resting ahead of Euro 21 and elimination games as they can sell him more expensive if promote him correctly at international stage. Tottenham had zero chances for top 4 wit United, Arsenal, Liverpool playing like this and City and Chelsea so far away so they drop season early. Hull win for the weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldtips Posted May 12, 2015 Author Share Posted May 12, 2015 Re: Long term profits selections. 112. Palmeiras - Sampaio Correa away win 9,50 (10/10) bet365, 2 units draw 5,2 Marathonbet Palmeiras denied me very big win (equalising in 94th minute on Saturday) in a game they should clearly lose. People betting on this club apart from being crazy see only a name. Club is rotten, last season barely escaped relegation, thanks to only Vitoria failing to win. Things do not going too good this season, they lost Paulista championship in the final and were no better in away fixture in the cup. Nowhere near even semifinal, also in a good years (long gone) for Palmeiras no even smell of semifinal of Copa do Brasil. 2 units on draw @ 5,2 Marathonbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldtips Posted May 13, 2015 Author Share Posted May 13, 2015 Re: Long term profits selections. Another strange game in Brazil 0-1 HT and blowout after, another successfully own fried NBA picks, another wrong NHL (what a run by loser) ATP Card 113. Dolgopolov to beat Garcia Lopez 2,23 Marathonbet 114. Chardy to beat Murray 6 bwin 115. Isner to beat Mayer 1,53 Ladbrokes 116. Dimitrov to beat Fognini 1,58 Marathonbet This might be not everything from tennis, there will be football picks, and probably US Sports later today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldtips Posted May 13, 2015 Author Share Posted May 13, 2015 Re: Long term profits selections. 117. Xinjian Tienshan - Guanzhou Evergrande home win 7,5 bet365 next picks about 5 pm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Re: Long term profits selections. Any questions now? :clap I think very big kick in teeth to all the doubters today but I guess it will be no congratulations for a day what has been. No worries I know this is current world works. Oh, boy, I can imagine your joy, and already see the exhilaration we will receive after this chinese pick won! :D Though, on the contrary, I don't see it as a kick in teeth; just as several picks that you lost earlier raised doubts about your skill, these two wins give wind to your sails, but it's still long way to conclusion; I'll tell you why. Mjondalen won at odds of 8, but it varied between bookmakers, so let’s say it belongs to type of matches where underdog is priced between 6 and 10. I went quickly through your picks, and I found 4 winning picks at those odds out of some 15 picks, if I counted well (including this chinese pick today, and assuming your numbering was correct, of course I didn’t check the results myself). Odds of 6 means that bookmaker estimates probability of an event to occur at 16.7%, while odds of 10 imply probability of 10%. So, average probability, as estimated by bookmakers, of events priced in this odds range is 13.3%, i.e., underdogs are expected to win 13.3% of matches in the long run. I took dataset available at football-data.co.uk for season 2014/2015 so far, and checked matches where underdog at Bet365 was priced between 6 and 10, in top 4 tiers in England, top 2 tiers in Italy, Spain, France, Germany and Scotland, and top tier in Netherlands, Portugal, Belgium, Greece and Turkey. And you guess what? Underdogs won exactly 13.3% of those matches. That was a pure coincidence, to match the figure at decimal place, so I went two seasons back, and results are quite similar: As you can see, results over range of 20.000 matches show that bookmakers’ estimation in this odds range perfectly aligns with actual results. Now, you see that actual strike rate between leagues varies from 5 to 30%, with outliers on both sides, due to small sample size per league; hence, it’s difficult to say if your current strike rate of 26% in this odds range is result of your skills or just luck, and Mjondalen case still proves nothing! It just proves that you brag about each win and stay silent about losses, and you might remember that it was my main reason to argue with you in this thread. :) When you get to a figure of, say, 1000 matches at odds between 6 and 10, and you keep your strike rate above these 13-14%, then you can indeed say there’s something more than luck. The same applies to any other odds range, just go and check yourself. Hull - Burnley game was both teams fight like dogs. Burnley did not know they will go down even if they win in that moment. Tottenham - Hull game is only one side motivated = Tottenham is on holiday for ages if you see their result OK, I agree, makes sense, and I stand corrected; although motivation is also disputable factor - what if Tottenham fields reserves who are eager to prove their skills, or players give their best just because they have nothing to play for, so there’s no pressure on them, while Hull have their legs made of lead, as they know the match is do or die? I believe that’s already incorporated in the odds: I see Hull is priced about 4.50 in this match, but in the mid season would have been, say, 6 or so; so the question is are they still worth backing at 4.50? Still waiting for your update on political bets, though?! :) Really put a lot of effort into finding successful big odds pick and warned today could be the beginning of a long way up as reason (work in last week) for distraction is over and believe me discussing in general result brilliant odds opportunity can be missed. Good luck! :ok I do not make personal remarks I expect the same. I am the host here on this thread and I should have more influence on how it looks as some discussion does not really help but I appeal discussion about specific picks or no discussion. We are adult' date=' you will not change my opinion, I will not change your, respect and continue.[/quote'] Well, I don't agree, sorry; you opened a thread in a public forum and sought the attention, so anyone has the right to comment. While my posts indeed were not quite polite, they were not abusive, either, so I don't see the issue; if you don't like them, well… respect and continue. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldtips Posted May 13, 2015 Author Share Posted May 13, 2015 Re: Long term profits selections. Of course anyone can comment. No problem. Another big win in chinese cup. Thing is I do not care about statistic, locations, value etc. Every match is different story. Does not really mean anything United can beat Hull in 19/20 cases if they come to this game seriously. If situation will be win for Hull guarantees them safety they will beat United even if they won previous 999 games with Hull. Looking into statistics really waste of tme for me at least. http://www.flashscore.com/match/EyETzJtl/#match-summary hmm normal game ;) Accidental? No accidents, only signs as my friend says Not really into numbers, probability etc, the art is to find a pick which will be won and I don't thing three picks odds around 7-10 in less than 24 hours are accidental. Last one was odds even growing into 11-13 into Xiangschicks or something. The same case as Rosenborg, clearing bills, no arguments to bet on home team but definitely arguments to bets against Guanzhou. Will not tell more ;0 Premiership is too serious business to risk. Everyone wants to be safe, Tottenham does not care, Hull will care much more. And Hull should win if they are professionals. Hull will beat Tottenham and United, Newcastle will beat QPR but fail to beat West Ham which means they are down if Sunderland beats Leicester and Leicester will beat QPR if they only need. But the last one may be not even necessary. If Newcastle fails to beat QPR they are dead. But they will get three points from Queens Park Shamblers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldtips Posted May 13, 2015 Author Share Posted May 13, 2015 Re: Long term profits selections. 118. Stabaek - Sandefjord away win 5 119. Stabaek - Sandefjord HT/FT 2/2 8,5 bwin 5 Units bet! 120. Stabaek - Sandefjord HT/FT 2/1 23 bwin 5 Units bet! 121. Asane - Follo away win 4,50 122. Lillestrom - Molde home win 5,75 bet365 123. Haugesund - Viking away win 2,80 Coral I like to strike this joke bookie! We will see what Stabaek will make today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldtips Posted May 13, 2015 Author Share Posted May 13, 2015 Re: Long term profits selections. LIVE 124. Fenerbahce - Erciyesspor Erciye + 2 3,5 bet365 125. Gaziantepspor - Rizespor away win 2,37 126. Siroki Brijeg - Olimpik away win 7 some odds will go down, some up, plenty of time as Bosnia during break fenerbahce will win by exactly one goal but cowards from bet365 do not put this bet as line should e 5-6. If you find somewhere, hit Fener to win by exactly one goal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldtips Posted May 13, 2015 Author Share Posted May 13, 2015 Re: Long term profits selections. 124. Odds 2,4 now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldtips Posted May 13, 2015 Author Share Posted May 13, 2015 Re: Long term profits selections. 125. Knapp to beat Kvitova WTA Rome 4,65 Marathonbet. Too many Federer huters to fade him. What a day in Norway. If Fenerbahce will not score for long time you can catch still higher and higher odds on home win. + 2 Kayseri quite strong position but it is just advice ;) Penalty and red card takeable. Yesterday two goals disalllowed for Karabukspor, this eekend Balikesirspor-Karabukspor relegatiion clash, like Sunderland -Leicester in UK, the difference at least one of the turkish teams will go down, while two english ones could be safe. 126. Syrianska - Mjallby Mlajjby + 0,5 1,7 5dimes 127. NHL Ny Rangers - Washington Washington ML 2,45 betway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldtips Posted May 13, 2015 Author Share Posted May 13, 2015 Re: Long term profits selections. 128. Real - Juventus Juventus DNB 4,25 Marathonbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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