UEFA Europa League > Thursday April 23rd

[Aidymac]

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[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Thursday 23 April 2015[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk v Club Brugge (20:05 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.43 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Fiorentina v Dynamo Kyiv (20:05 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.65[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.51 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Napoli v VfL Wolfsburg (20:05 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.2[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.69 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Zenit Saint-Petersburg v Sevilla (20:05 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.75[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]98.72 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[footballeye]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday April 23rd Zenit - Sevilla (first leg 1-2) Zenit will be without suspended central defender Garay and midfielder Ryazantsev. Garay is a very significant missing, suffice it to say that he's the best CD that has ever played for this club. The pair of central defenders Neto-Lombaets is less reliable, particularly Luis Neto is error-prone especially when Garay isn't there to back him up. Star players Hulk and Danny return from suspensions and so in attack Zenit will be at full strength. Even at full strength, Zenit did not convince me in the latest home fixture in this tournament despite winning 2-0 against 10-man Torino. Sevilla is probably stronger than the Italians, and it won't be easy for Zenit to break them. With the individual skill of its players I think the hosts will manage to score a goal, but will they be able to do it more than once? I have doubts. I consider individually skilled Danny and especially Hulk the destroyers of Zenit team play, and what they create with their moments of individual brilliance does not compensate for all the attacks they botch. As a result Zenit scores less than they could have with a more balanced team play. (A characteristic example was the last league game at Kuban where the team didn't score despite the presence of both stars, while away at Sevilla Zenit did score playing without them.) There's always a chance that something clicks and Zenit produces very inspiring football like they did against PSV earlier this year (3-0) but this is unlikely given that the team is tired due to the dense schedule and lack of depth in the squad. And Sevilla is way better than PSV anyway. The visitors need at least a draw to progress to the semifinals (or they can lose with some unusual score like 3-2, 4-3, etc.). Sevilla didn't start with thier strongest lineup in the first Ieg, but is Emeri going to take a more serious approach here and field the strongest 11? Maybe yes, because their next fixture is at home to Rayo and can be considered a relatively easy one. They have no important missings, only Carrico is injured. Looking at Sevilla's previous results I can see they aren't shy in their away games and score almost always, even against the likes of Real and Barca. I think they have enough attacking power to find the net in St.Petersburg as well, especially taking into account the important missing in Zenit's center of defense. If Zenit scores first, Sevilla will have to go forward looking for the equalizer and I think they have enough quality to score one, especially if Zenit players get tired towards the end of the game, as they did in Sevilla and last Sunday in Krasnodar. My expectaion of this match is Sevilla to go through and both teams to score. I'll also take a draw myself.

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday April 23rd According to my shots on target stats for recent Europa League games, Club Brugge (4.07), Dynamo Kiev (5.5), Napoli (2.32) and Zenit (2.4) could be good value bets

[Carloski23]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday April 23rd I like the analysis, really impressive so I will be taking a punt on this! :)

[malabgd]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday April 23rd Fiorentina v Dynamo Kiev Fiorentina: Badelj (15/0 m, doubtful), Babacar (20/7 f, top scorer), Rossi (0/0 f) Dynamo Kiev: Mbokani (7/3 f), Makarenko (7/0 d), Miguel Veloso (9/1 m), Burda (4/1 d), Dragovic (18/0 d) Information from more then 50 football leagues and competitions at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[AF13]

[theo13]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday April 23rd Napoli - Wolfsburg I think qualifying for wolfsburg is practically impossible after the result of the first leg but at first I was thinking backing them tonight as i'm sure they would like to play for their prestige and leave this competition the best way they can after what happenend in Germany. But now that 3 important players are missing (Schurrle, De Bruyne, Vierinha) and considering the great shape that Napoli is in, as in the last week they succeeded 3 victories with scores 3-0, 1-4, 0-3 and that they will play to have fun and to please the fans in "San Paolo", i've changed my mind and I find value in home win. Also Benitez won't rest regular players as it was expected (maybe he has a fear about Germans afte what happened in Porto!!), so that's one more reason for me. Napoli @ 2.23 Marathonbet

[clubgowi]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday April 23rd Europa League Dnepr - Club Brugge In terms of league/playoff action in the interim, Club Brugge have greatly increased their chances of qualifying for the CL domestically and will want to hold on to first place in the Championship Playoffs which will ensure they go straight into the group stage next season, to that end, they face their closest challenger Gent, on the road on Sunday and that is bound to be a distraction for their long trip East to Kiev to meet Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk. We have spoken previously about the huge motivation that the Eastern European teams have for this competion and the fitness advantage they hold once past the first knockout stage round , when the benefit of a lengthy winter break starts to kick in and all that will go double with the CL incentive factored in. Dnipro have replaced Metalist as the third big power in Ukranian football and are looking to make inroads into Shakhtar and Dynamo , they are very tight defensively and have not conceded in seven home starts in 2015, or at all in 437 minutes and only twice in 11 home and away starts, keeping a cleansheet in the first leg and in defeating both Ajax and Olympiakos here in Kiev, where they are forced to play home Europa League ties. The hosts have collected a bit of a reputation for the physical side of their game this season, having collected ten yellow cards more than any other team in the competition, but it was their football which caught the eye in the first leg and they were unfortunate not to have come away with a win, after dominated long periods and running Brugge a little ragged through the closing stages. Squad wise, the hosts feel they are in their best shape of the season, having had a lot of injuries to deal with previously and they are now looking to kick on both here and domestically. CB are a little short handed defensively and have been for some time, when they have opted to rotate from their best available four at the back, it has not worked out well and they can ill afford any injuries and they have a tough choice between today and Sunday. I take Dnipro to edge this, but it is not in their nature to go gung ho from the start and I would like to hold out for a better quote, they have scored four goals in winning their last three "home " EL games without conceding and all came between the 31st-67th minute, three after the break. Brugge have not conceded an away goal in five EL first half starts, so for me, 1.25 units Dnipro -0.5 ball as soon as the asian quote hits 2.25, as long as they are not already leading and we are playing 11 v 11.

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday April 23rd

Why are you obsessed with shots on target? I'm not having a go' date=' just asking what relevance you think there is in that particular statistic? Thanks.[/quote'] Hopefully I'm not TOO obsessed - but I do think they can sometimes point up value :D. (I check shots on target FOR and AGAINST to balance things out).

[TEG45]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday April 23rd Zenit vs Sevilla – Win for Sevilla @ 3.20 Marathonbet Zenit claimed the Europa League trophy back in the 2007/2008 season and will be dreaming of repeating that historical run. That was their first-ever triumph in Europe and they have assembled a squad capable of repeating that feat this season. However, the defending champions of the cup were not to be denied at home, as the second half saw them invigorated, and Zenit eventually succumbed to the pressure and fell, 1:2. But that away goal could prove crucial to their advancement, as the hosts are very strong at home as evidenced by their 8-match unbeaten run with 7 wins over this stretch. Furthermore, they are unbeaten in their last 14 Europa League home matches in which 13 of those ended in victory. Sevilla travel to Russia as the underdogs despite being the reigning champions of the cup. While the travel distance is long and the home crowd is likely to be rowdy, i don’t see Sevilla being eliminated here.

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday April 23rd

Hopefully I'm not TOO obsessed - but I do think they can sometimes point up value :D. (I check shots on target FOR and AGAINST to balance things out).

I guess I should add shots on target FOR are a key ingredient for scoring goals and shots on targets AGAINST for conceding them.