Total goals think tank

[Rob]

With the football season coming to an end I thought I'd open up a discussion thread. Not sure this is in the right place but it seems as good a place as any. Now this thread might die on it's arse for a number of reasons: 1) People might not have any views on the subject, but I know Christianu follows this market so I want at least one reply! 2) People might feel that they lose thier competative edge by giving away 'secrets' on a public forum. 3) People may prefer a statistical approach to systems which may not lend itself to this kind of discussion. but what I'm after is peoples opinions on what factors affect the number of goals in a football match. I'll kick things off with what I call a 'Desperation Fixture'. Towards the end of the season you get games between 2 sides at the bottom of the league which are absolutely must win games for both sides. This may not mean that the teams play any better or worse, but if one team goes behind then the other will switch to a very attacking style as they now need to score 2. This seems to be more apparent in the premier league where the concequences of relegation are massive. I perfect example of this was the 4-3 between Norwich and Southampton last weekend. It also helps if both defences are crap (S'ton and Norwich again). discuss

[kiko1983]

Re: Total goals think tank One i have found is similar to yours but i find it more in general no matter of the teams position. i find that when the away team score the first goal and very early on. This then leads to the home fans getting on home teams back and forcing them into all out attack which then leads to holes for the away team to exploit and hit on the counter attack! Not sure if this is the kind of idea you mean? There are many others, i will have a think about it.

[brookes]

Re: Total goals think tank Good idea emerson , WIGWAFC had a system which lasted about a month in January , from which I made some money . I would have made more if I had stuck to singles! It was based on statistics , Stoke at the time wre a very low scoring side . I am a follower of recent form last 4 home/away games and the whether both teams are recent over 2.5 scorers [This info is available in the H2H stats site]. I totally agree with you on the poor defensive record , but a side like Everton may be happy to win 2-0 against a relatively poor side and not conceed any goals. I need more time to get my thought together , I hope this thread will continue.

[Rob]

Re: Total goals think tank Agree 100% on the recent form Brookes, I too look at the last 4 on the H2H site! but I also note whether the team is home or away. It's a very simple idea, but sometimes they're the best. Could have cleaned up on Burnley and Stoke this season, also Blackburn since Sparky took over

[mr onemore]

Re: Total goals think tank I have collected a few stats on this market. Kiko - you are right that when the away side is ahead, the combined ability for both sides to score another increases, compared to when scores are level. The problem from a betting point of view is predicting that the away team is likely to score first - because if the home team go ahead, the combined scoring rate often goes down! Potentially some in-running prospects, but not really shedding light on what makes a high scoring game when you are looking at the match before it has started. I think there are two scenarios that potentially contribute to an above average number of goals. I think they're fairly obvious... a) Both teams are weak in defence so both teams likely to concede goals at any stage. b) Home team strong attack, away team weak defence - possible one sided thrashing. Less obvious is that when two teams noted for attacking play meet, this does not necessarily increase the goal chances. I believe teams weak defence is the dominant factor over teams attack strength in finding high scoring games. I'm interested if anyone's got a fairly novel way of tackling this market - the above factors are hardly difficult to come up with after all... And in any case, these factors are still small, and beating the overround in the over/under market is very difficult. It seems to be a fairly random market...I've tried a few things based on the above and not been able to beat the odds in that way...yet...:(

[muppet77]

Re: Total goals think tank i'm sure i read somewhere that the number of 2-2 s and 3-3 s increases significantly at this stage of the season, due to the reasons outlined above.

[spreadman]

Re: Total goals think tank You are right, muppet 77, the goal averages per match graph for goals scored goes up in May, acccording to Racing Post, after a low in April. However, in my humble opinion, (and most of you will know often I get it wrong!), it's 'easier' to make a profit from lower score bets than high score ones due to frequency of occurence. This is not the point of the thread, so to get back to the subject, the points mentioned already are very valid, but I would add that more goals are scored in particular leagues e.g. league 1, conference, though this fact cannot be strictly applied to one individual match in those leagues. 0-0 results still happen, but at a lower rate. Hope this small contribution helps. Spreadman.:ok

[Rob]

Re: Total goals think tank It's interesting to get different views on this. I'm a big believer that psychology and tactics play a big part in this maket (and many others too). This is probably one area where I differ with you mr onemore as your strategies seem to be very statistics based, wheras mine are more qualitative than quantitative. I think people frequently underestimate how hard it is for any team to score against a side who know they are inferior, and therefore put 10 men behind the ball. This is usually combined with complacency from the superior team and leads to a low scoring game. e.g. England vs. Azerbejan (both games). With this in mind I fancy under 2.5 for Chelsea vs. Charlton this weekend. It might not get the Emerson doller though, as I'm not sure that Curbishly knows how crap they are, and he might try to take them on

[spreadman]

Re: Total goals think tank You are right to exercise caution, Mr. E, in the chelsea match - bear in mind that they have just been 'sorted' by liverpool and could react to this. They are in front of their home fans, and the cup will no doubt be prominently paraded around. Charlton don't have a great deal to inspire them and recent form is questionable. I am not suggesting there will be a goal fest, but to me it's a 'no bet'. Good luck, whatever you decide. Spreadman.:ok

[Rob]

Re: Total goals think tank Spreadman, Do you find that there's more profit in selling goals on the spreads than going under 2.5 on the fixed odds? Your user name suggests that's your prefered method, but I just wondered why? I heard an argument that the spread on the total goals market is generally too high for 2 reasons - 1. your man in the street preferes to buy goals as it is the more exciting, 'entertaining' option. 2. People shit themselves at the prospect of unlimited liability of selling total goals, so take the safer option of buying. do you buy into this theory?

[spreadman]

Re: Total goals think tank Emersonthome, I have not tested the two methods side by side, but my gut reaction is that spreadbetting on total goal sells is more profitable than the 'fixed' odds under 2.5 goals bet. You can also, on some matches, sell on more than 2.5,..... 2.8, 3 or more...some Scottish Prem games for example. Your two assumptions are correct - punters do like to buy, especially if it is a televised match, so the spread companies adjust the spread slightly higher than it should be and the punters, as opposed to the 'pro's' still pile in and buy. I suppose the one advantage of the over or under 2.5 goals bet is that if the spread is 2.4 to 2.6, the former fixed odds bet is one 'tick', or a tenth of a point better for the punter, so potentially more profitable. The bowel loosening to which you refer is no doubt a determining factor in punters prefering 'buys' to 'sells', and whilst the fixed odds bet has limited liability, so to can the 'selling' spread bet, as you can choose to bail out ('close the trade'), as the goals go in, or 'bet the other way', by buying goals for a higher points stake per goal, if you feel sure more goals will be scored, and your sell bet has gone a*s over tit. I would disagree with your description of buying being 'safer', it could lose you more money in the short term, but as the spreads are set slightly in favour of sellers, and total goal averages, depending on the team and team's league, are usually below 2.5, over the long term you will stand a better chance of winning. Maybe I am biased toward spread betting - at least 90% of my bets are spread betting trades, around 60% of those are total goal bets, and apprx 80% of tg bets are sells. I treat my betting as a serious business as it is now my main source of income, and experience and learning from other pro's has taught me to learn self discipline and control, to be unemotional in my choice of trades and not take the inevitable losses to heart- to take the long term view. But, despite my good intentions, the spreadman laundry basket is always full of soiled underwear. (Apologies for that unpleasant image). Interested to hear your thoughts, or any other pl'ers, spread bettors or otherwise on this subject. Spreadman.:ok

[ian3012]

Re: Total goals think tank

Emerson...."...but what I'm after is peoples opinions on what factors affect the number of goals in a football match." well you won't make a system out out of this... but it might stop some of you emulating the mug that is me:o valencia v barca on sunday nite..... anyone see it? i've posted here before that i favour laying the draw in 'hard to call' games... so i layed.... and result! barca go 2-nil up and are flying.... i don't even think about closing the bet out.... no need... the only question is.."how many more will they score?" it's 0-2 at h/time and i lay 0-2 in the 'correct scores' market.... big time:eyes there has to be at least another goal, minimum, and the best of it was, i didn't care who scored it....:dude barca come out 2nd half.... it's all a bit of a blur now.... but i remember them missing 2 sitters almost straightaway.....:@ and then.... result again!.... valencia down to 10 men.... they must score a hatful now!:hope but they didn't..... they seemed to stop trying.... 2-0 up against 10 men.... they didn't try simply because....well,because they didn't need to.:spank which is fine for barca.... but an absolute nightmare for anyone like me, or anyone who went over 2.5 goals etc... so i suppose the point is..... even though a team may be trying at the kick-off..... there may come a time in the game(or season) when they're not trying.... and thats not good for any total goals system:\ laying that 2-0 score lost me 3 times as much as i won on laying the draw... barca?... spineless cnuts:lol

[spreadman]

Re: Total goals think tank Know what you mean, Ian. I expected the weekend match, Brighton v Ipswich, to be a goal fest when the score was 1-1 within a few mins after kick off.I didn't watch the match because Wigan v Reading , on which I had a bet, was on at the same time, but Sky were doing goal update flashes, and I was waiting for the next goal before piling in with a total goals buy. Unbelievably, it never came, and the Wigan game I was watching, ('low goal score expected', Racing Post), on which I had a total goals sell, finished 3-1. Still, I did back Wigan last August to be promoted at 10/1. Good luck! :ok

[Rob]

Re: Total goals think tank

It's good if you're selling total goals or backing under 2.5! Granted it's easy for me to say that now, but if you can indentify the 'spineless cnuts' of this world, it may be worth backing the under. I didn't see the game but this may be an example of what I was talking about earlier. Valencia get a man sent off, so the other 9 defend trying to avoid a hammering. Meanwhile Barca are 2-0 up against 10 men so get complacent and take it easy. The result? a stalemate and the game finishes 2-0. I my opinion a sending off when a team is losing is a godsend if you've backed under 2.5

[Rob]

Re: Total goals think tank Slightly off topic spreadman, but which firms do you use for selling total goals? the only spread account I have at the mo is cantor spreadfair. do you rate them?

[Kiwi_punter]

Re: Total goals think tank I've taken a big interest in this area too. I'll wait for next season to start a system or strategy on it but I'm interested in the under 2.5 goal market. I only know the premiership and the champions league teams quite well so I'll stick to these divisions. My strategy will involve selecting a bunch of teams that generally struggle to score goals or play a brand of football which is not too constructive but hard to break down also. Examples of these teams are Blackburn, Everton, Juventus, Chelsea, Stoke, Millwall, Burnley, Cardiff, etc. This pool of teams can change throughout the season if a team suddenly starts conceding a lot of goals or they discover the knack of scoring a lot of goals. Teams go through stages of development so I'll have to keep a check on how teams are going. Once I've identified these teams then the next step is to match them up in games that will produce a low scoring result. Things I take in to consideration is the strength or style of the opposition or whether the team I am taking is home or away or which teams style will influence the game more then the other. If two teams in the "pool" are playing each other then generally I'll take the under 2.5 goal option. If a slightly stronger team is playing a team in the pool away then I'll take the option as they tend to even each other out. When two low scoring teams play each other and the home team is quite dominant over the opposition then I'd avoid that game as a low scoring team can cut loose against a weaker opposition if they get the opportunity. It'll just take a lot of discipline and I'll have to follow the team's results closely. Just my two cents worth.

[SecondSight]

Re: Total goals think tank Geoff Harvey (successful football betting) says sunny, dry weather bringsgoals and wet weather limits goals. Wind adds to goals too. This may explain why the number of goals increase in games in the last few weeks of a typical season. I have done the statistics , but its been a pretty dry winter and I would expect their to have been more goals scored this season than say 2000-1 which was very wet. He says in wet conditions it is easier for defenders to control play. Stan James had over 19 goals at 2/1 for 7 prem games that were 3pm Sat kick offs on Saturday. It looked value to me based on good weather, but only 17 goals were scored which was mean average (2.6). Games were Boro, Blackburn, Portsmouth, Villa, Everton, Palace, Norwich. He also says look to go under in general as most punters as ET says like to go over, especially on the big televised games that attract amateur punters. Bookies adjust odds slightly for unders to balance their books.

[spreadman]

Re: Total goals think tank Very interesting and constructive inputs. Not much I can add or disagree with, but to answer your q. Mr. Emersonthome, I have accounts with cantor, I.G., Spreadex and Sporting, as well as the irish spread firm whose name escapes me. I use sporting 80% of the time, I.G. around 10%, the rest 10%. Spo. and ig have the narrowest spreads, and therefore over a period of time, you win more, (or lose less!), with these two. I don't use the exchanges as much as I should, but I have just purchased a couple of betting exchange books so will read up on the subject. What tickles me is the claims by cantor sprf. that their spreads are tighter/better than sport or ig. After deducting commission they're not! Well, off now to watch my total goals sell bet go down the pan, in the man u match. At least if things go a*se up I can close the trade. There's nothing like positive thinking.