dave Posted May 2, 2005 Share Posted May 2, 2005 Kempton 5.25 While there are no out and out front runners in this race, I can see 8 that will take it up if in the mood, and therefore we have to be looking for something coming from behind. The middle draws should have a big advantage in this race, so we're concentrating on stalls 7-13. Of the horses drawn 7-13, 4 are likely to be held up. Mr Velocity is slowly dropping towards a decent mark, but the stable isn't in great form, and struggles at the top courses. Azreme is unproven at this trip, and his sire has a shocking record at Kempton. Taranaki looks like he needs to come down a few pounds before returning to winning ways. Goodbye Mr Bond showed that he is still well handicapped, finishing 3l back on ground that didn't suit on last outing of last season off 83. Down to 79 now and has won 4 out of 4 over 8f on good ground. Selection : Goodbye Mr Bond - f/c 16/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted May 2, 2005 Share Posted May 2, 2005 Re: Dave's Flat Bets Good Luck for the coming season Dave - its a competitive race you've started with there - i tried to work it out but could only narrow the field down to 4 so im going to give it a miss. I agree that GOODBYE MR BOND has a good chance under todays conditions. Also SAN ANTONIO looks a reformed character since blinkers were applied, winning his last 2 races. May need the ground softer though. BARATHEA DREAMS seems best in the spring and won last time out. He's still on a decent mark of 80 so could follow up. LITTLE JIMBOB's record over 1m is 3224321 so should go close. Career high mark today but he looks an improver. If i had to stick my neck out i'd favour LITTLE JIMBOB but like i say, im giving the race a miss so lets hope Goodbye Mr Bond comes in for you :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted May 2, 2005 Author Share Posted May 2, 2005 Re: Dave's Flat Bets Good Luck for the coming season Dave - its a competitive race you've started with there Thanks AK. Not my first race of the season though - have made the move from EBA to PL for racing. Was getting criticised for a 40pt profit (1pt stakes) in around 2 weeks, so I wasn't hanging around there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted May 2, 2005 Share Posted May 2, 2005 Re: Dave's Flat Bets Good Luck Dave :ok EBA's loss is definitely our gain :clap some very good comments / tips the last few weeks from yourself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted May 2, 2005 Share Posted May 2, 2005 Re: Dave's Flat Bets Just had a quick scan through the threads over there Dave. I'm not sure of the background but it seems a couple of the posters there have made a big mountain out of a little molehill to say the least. Im a big fan of using the draw to the punters advantage and use it quite heavily myself so ill be interested in your selections this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted May 2, 2005 Author Share Posted May 2, 2005 Re: Dave's Flat Bets It wasn't the fact that they thought the draw wasn't a useful selection criteria that bothered me - it was that as soon as I made one mistake on the draw they went straight in and attacked me for using it. As my record on that site this year shows the draw has clearly been a useful tool, helping me pick 11/2 and 13/2 winners on that particular day, along with a 20/1 and two 14/1s in the previous couple of weeks (all still over at EBA incase anyone is going to accuse me of aftertiming). I don't really think it's fair, if someone has spent hours analyzing a race and posting it on the website, to attack their methods, especially if they've been so successful. That place is going to end up as just a load of threads with lists of selections, which is a shame, as this time last year I probably spent more time on EBA than PL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted May 2, 2005 Author Share Posted May 2, 2005 Re: Dave's Flat Bets Anyway that's all in the past, hopefully I'll keep the good form going over at PL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted May 2, 2005 Share Posted May 2, 2005 Re: Dave's Flat Bets Hi Dave nice to see you here. The current price on betfair is 27 so that would be a huge increase on returnsif it comes in. Place bet is 5.00 @betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted May 2, 2005 Author Share Posted May 2, 2005 Re: Dave's Flat Bets Yeah, love betfair for horses in this kind of price range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted May 2, 2005 Author Share Posted May 2, 2005 Re: Dave's Flat Bets 5th Drawn 11 1l :'>Goodbye Mr Bond 5R Hughes 12-1 9 3E Alston Held up in rear, headway over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, nearest finish Opened 16/1 £5000-£300 each way Just outside the placings, but finished strongly as expected, after being backed strongly just before the race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master Joe Posted May 2, 2005 Share Posted May 2, 2005 Re: Dave's Flat Bets Hey Dave!! Joe from EBA here, some great work you doing mate. Regarding the people on EBA just listing their selections, It would be nice if they tell us how they approched their fancy. I have just started from yesterday listing comments about the horses I fancy as you can see in my placepoit threads and I will continues to do the same. I feel that EBA is quite dead, as most of the certain forums on there are non-contributional eg: The Chit-Chat section. And the Admin Mabbs is not on there alot and he is not really helping the forum as an Admin should. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted May 2, 2005 Author Share Posted May 2, 2005 Re: Dave's Flat Bets You're right about the site but wrong about Mabbs Joe, he's turned EBA from nothing into a quality site over the last couple of years, but the last month or 2 it's just gone downhill. Just some of the members don't like others being as succesful as them (its alway seems to be the good tipsters who cause the problems - crazy really). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted May 3, 2005 Author Share Posted May 3, 2005 Re: Dave's Flat Bets Leicester 3.00 A strong draw bias in big fields when the ground is soft over 7f at Leicester - the middle draws are the ones to be in - so here I'll be concentrating on 7-13. 8 of the first 11 in the forecast betting are drawn outside of these stalls, so it could be a very interesting result. Espada is a probable front runner, but they will be lining up behind him, and it looks very unlikely that this one can make all for a victory. Of the three that I think will be ready to pounce, Fulvio is unlikely to handle the ground, and Indian Edge's 5lb rise in the weights should be enough to stop him winning. Harry The Hoover makes his first appearance on the turf on the flat for almost 2 years, and looks absolutely huge at a forecast 33/1, with bigger bound to be available on betfair. On debut he ran a decent race, before follwing up with a maiden win on heavy ground, giving him a rating of 80. His final race on the turf (before switching to hurdles and then the a/w) was a 7 1/4l 9th, where he met trouble in running, the racing post comment "Harry The Hoover met trouble and is a bit better than the bare form." This is a horse that clearly hates the all weather, his record reading 9/11 12/12 12/13 5/12 12/13 2/11 9/13 His sire is also a lot better on turf, so this is no coincidence The only reason he managed to get the 2nd was because he has dropped all the way down to a rating of 49 (from that original 80). If he can improve that much by dropping in the weights on a surface he hates, imagine what is possible with so little weight on turf. Back on the surface that he much prefers, and 31lbs lower than that hampered 9th place, excellently drawn, this is a horse ready to win. Selection : Harry The Hoover - f/c 33/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted May 3, 2005 Share Posted May 3, 2005 Re: Dave's Flat Bets Certainly looks a big price Dave - good luck :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Odyssey Posted May 3, 2005 Share Posted May 3, 2005 Re: Dave's Flat Bets There is a horse in this race that has been backed heavily, Semper Paratus was 33's down to 16's at bet365 aswell as the other major firms around 14's and as low as 10's @ Sporting odds. Anyway i'm on Dave's at 33's:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted May 4, 2005 Author Share Posted May 4, 2005 Re: Dave's Flat Bets 13th Drawn 11 3l Harry The Hoover (IRE) 5S Hitchcott 33-1 9 4M Gingell Prominent over 4f Opened 25/1, touched 33/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted May 7, 2005 Share Posted May 7, 2005 Re: Dave's Flat Bets you playing the beverley draw bias today mate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted May 8, 2005 Author Share Posted May 8, 2005 Re: Dave's Flat Bets Hi AK. Was down in London yesterday so didn't get a chance to look at the racing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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