Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm

[Aidymac]

:ok

[DanielDares]

Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm Sprinter Sacre at 11/4 with NRNB freds/totes looks a nice bet to me

[Toast]

Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm Hinterland...40/1 ew. Firstly, except for Sprinter Sacre, the 2 mile division has been quite weak for a few years. Injury to him meant Sire De Grugy took his mantle. Both have had their problems over the last 12 months, thus, both have something to prove at Cheltenham. In their absence, Dodging Bullets has been the best seen this season winning both the Tingle Creek and Victor Chandler. But, IMO, Nicholls has another very viable candidate in Hinterland. Courses like Aintree, Kempton and Wolverhampton are simply no good to him. What he needs is a fast pace and steep uphill finish, like Sandown and Cheltenham and a lengthy break between races. He ran in this race, as a novice last season, and was going very well until being brought down 4 out. Maybe, he should have gone the Arkle route. Why do trainers insist on running novices in open grade 1 races? Im not saying he's in the same class as Sprinter Sacre, but if Hendersons previous record with chasers is anything to go by, then he is finished and will go backwards. Sire De Grugy is yet to race this season and his trainers comments are very downbeat, leaving Dodging Bullets as the likely winner. But, providing Nicholls misses the Game Spirit, then Hinterland will go into the race under his ideal conditions. This is the only Cheltenham entry he has, there is no alternative at Aintree, so it's systems go for the QM and Celebration chase at Sandown on Whitbread day.

[beaker1]

Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm 2015 Queen Mother Champion Chase Trends 17 of the last 18 winners had run no more than 4 times that season 32 of the last 33 winners started 11/1 or shorter 12 of the last 13 winners had won a Grade 1 11 of the last 12 defending champions that ran were beaten 10 of the last 14 winners contested the Tingle Creek Chase 19 of the last 30 winners had won at the Cheltenham Festival before The last 12 winners ran during the same calendar year 5 of the last 12 winners were Irish trained Only 1 winner aged older than 10 since 1977

[Toast]

Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm

Hinterland...40/1 ew. Firstly, except for Sprinter Sacre, the 2 mile division has been quite weak for a few years. Injury to him meant Sire De Grugy took his mantle. Both have had their problems over the last 12 months, thus, both have something to prove at Cheltenham. In their absence, Dodging Bullets has been the best seen this season winning both the Tingle Creek and Victor Chandler. But, IMO, Nicholls has another very viable candidate in Hinterland. Courses like Aintree, Kempton and Wolverhampton are simply no good to him. What he needs is a fast pace and steep uphill finish, like Sandown and Cheltenham and a lengthy break between races. He ran in this race, as a novice last season, and was going very well until being brought down 4 out. Maybe, he should have gone the Arkle route. Why do trainers insist on running novices in open grade 1 races? Im not saying he's in the same class as Sprinter Sacre, but if Hendersons previous record with chasers is anything to go by, then he is finished and will go backwards. Sire De Grugy is yet to race this season and his trainers comments are very downbeat, leaving Dodging Bullets as the likely winner. But, providing Nicholls misses the Game Spirit, then Hinterland will go into the race under his ideal conditions. This is the only Cheltenham entry he has, there is no alternative at Aintree, so it's systems go for the QM and Celebration chase at Sandown on Whitbread day.

No game spirit entry..:nana

[danj2202]

Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm 1 pt e/w Mr Mole 25/1 Skybet NRNB This is a horse that is clearly highly regarded and has been backed heavily on more than one occasion, including at the Festival. We will find out a lot when the horse takes on the reigning champ Sire de Grugy today. Its a punt in a race that looks open on a horse that you sense has never quite fulfilled the potential that its believed to have. If SDG and Sprinter Sacre dont fire as they continue their return from injury this one could be a decent price.

[Aidymac]

Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm

1 pt e/w Mr Mole 25/1 Skybet NRNB This is a horse that is clearly highly regarded and has been backed heavily on more than one occasion, including at the Festival. We will find out a lot when the horse takes on the reigning champ Sire de Grugy today. Its a punt in a race that looks open on a horse that you sense has never quite fulfilled the potential that its believed to have. If SDG and Sprinter Sacre dont fire as they continue their return from injury this one could be a decent price.

Good shout mate, getting some value now!

[Smarty72]

Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm Latest Press Release with updated runners and non runners.... http://cheltenham.thejockeyclub.co.u...t-the-festival

[Toast]

Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm Hinterland is entered and still available at 50/1:ok

[ELCAKER]

Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm CHAMPAGNE FEVER is a stonking ew bet in this race. He is a brilliant horse whose course form is pretty spectacular, WIN,WIN, 2nd over the last 3 Festivals. He is trained by the best, will be ridden by the best and the likely faster ground conditions will suit him. The 6s available with either Ladbrokes or Hills should be snaffled up. Sprinter is the best lay of the meeting. He is priced up on his previous brilliance. He now has major health concerns. He bled after Ascot, despite not being put under any real pressure by Geraghty, and he is unlikely to be able to win this race on the bridle. This race has real depth and he will be found out. Place lay on the day, hopefully at odds-on. Dodging Bullets has improved this season, but he was behind CF in last year's Arkle, no real reason to think he can turn around the form. If it came up genuinely soft on the day he'd be a saver. Sire De Grugy is difficult to weigh up. Connections would have us believe his ailments weren't that severe. A friend, who has close ties to the stable is adamant the horse is fine and having backed him ahead of his comeback run, has weighed in again at the 7s now on offer. This looks a pretty fair price on his efforts last year, but is jumping in The Game Spirit has to be a concern to his supporters. If he is 100% fit then he is a very real contender as there is nothing to say he wouldn't have run Mr Mole close in the Newbury race. The latter is being touted by some as a real contender, but i don't buy it. He has won one Graded Race and I don't think he's good enough. He and Hidden Cyclone can at best run a place. Fever to give me fever....6s is MASSIVE.

[BillyHills]

Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm .....................A race where the Irish challengers are not that obvious, we have Champagne Fever and Hidden Cyclone in the markets top ten but that’s about it really. The latter came back to form at Punchestown last time but that was his first win since 2013, not great credentials for a future Champion Chase winner. Champagne Fever on the other hand is a double-Cheltenham Festival winner plus a close second in the Arkle last year. He loves it around here and if he turned up on a going day he would be a danger to all. I think Ruby will make plenty of use on him as none of the other main challengers will want to set the pace or go too quick early on. His best chance is to get one or two of them unsettled and the 6/1 with >William Hill is a fair price. Full Preview; http://www.horse-racing.org/cheltenham-preview-queen-mother

[Smarty72]

Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm

Hinterland is entered and still available at 50/1:ok

Hinterland out according to Paul Nicholls..... https://twitter.com/PFNicholls

[Toast]

Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm :puke:puke:puke Thats twice now that he's bled this season. Being aimed at Sandown in april

[bennyblue]

Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm

:puke:puke:puke Thats twice now that he's bled this season. Being aimed at Sandown in april

Probably worth a punt if he runs again this season

[Aidymac]

Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm Cheltenham 3:20 - Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase(Grade 1) (1) 2m CHAMPAGNE FEVER is going to take a lot of beating in this years' renewal of the Queen Mother, that is my own personal opinion. He has not been a model of consistency, but there is no denying his love for Cheltenham, a track where he blossoms each spring. He won the Champion Bumper, won the Supreme Novices Hurdle and last year ran a gallant race when a close 2nd in The Arkle. He has always been thought of as a stayer in time, but he certainly has the speed for 2 miles and he will love that Cheltenham hill. Things didn't go according to plan for him as he didn't stay the three miles in the King George, so they have changed plans. He was upsides Don Cossack when he fell at the last fence two runs back at Thurles, and he made amends in the Red Mills Chase next time at Gowran with a great front running performance. He has a great 2 mile record here at Cheltenham, 2 wins from 2, and he should take a bit of beating if he jumps soundly. Take the 6/1 with Boylesports. >>>>> Champagne Fever - 2 Points WIN @ 6/1 Boylesports https://www.punterslounge.com/cheltenham-festival/

[BillyHills]

Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm 3.20 Cheltenham: Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (2m) The big race on day two of the Festival is the Queen Mother, the contest has really gathered momentum in the last month since its been known that both past winners Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy will be able to line up after injury scares. Both trainers are adamant they have their stable stars back on track and it should be a cracking renewal. Six of the best; Sprinter Sacre – Won this like a true champion in 2013 and many thought he would go on to win multiple titles. He’s a 9yo now so although he still has time to bag another one or two his heart problem has had serious repercussions on his career. Beaten on his comeback at Ascot by Dodging Bullets and now needs to prove he’s back on the biggest stage possible. He was so superior to his rivals in his hey-day that anything near that level of form could see him home. Sire De Grugy – In the absence of Sprinter Sacre this horse mopped up all of the two mile chases last season including this race, which he won comfortably. Suffered a small injury himself at the beginning of this season and its been a race against time to get him right. Was beaten at Newbury when falling two out so went to Chepstow to brush up his jumping and looked to back to near his best, hopefully that hasn’t took the edge off him for this. Dodging Bullets – Has stepped into the breach so to speak with both of the big favourites on the sidelines and has took advantage in some style by winning the Tingle Creek and the Clarence House Chase. Loked much improved from the horse we saw last season who could only manage fourth in the Arkle. Has Cheltenham form and is one horse who wouldn’t mind it if it’s a bit soft underfoot. Champagne Fever – Great record at the Festival, he won the Bumper in 2012, Supreme in 2013 and then was beaten a head in the Arkle last year. He definitely has two ways of running and can be very frustrating but when he’s on song he is a very difficult horse to pass when he gets into his rhythm. Has tried 3 miles this year and was a gallant fourth in the King George and this quick two miles might just be on the sharp side nowadays. Mr Mole – We didn’t expect to be talking about Mr Mole when looking at the Champion Chase? Well I didn’t anyway, he has always had the ability but wasn’t that interested in using it. Was well beaten when falling in the Grand Annual last year off 147, four victories later and he’s a 165 horse and AP McCoy’s mount in the Champion Chase. It will be amazing if he can pull this off for his boss JP McManus. Special Tiara – Has run well here before and has a decent record when coming over from Ireland. Won last time out at Kempton beating Balder Succes and has won a Grade 1 race at Aintree in his time. Still only an 8yo and trainer Henry de Bromhead reckons he’s in good nick to do himself justice once more. Lively outsider at a big price. Verdict: Really looking forward to this years renewal with so many if and buts about the race. I love Sprinter Sacre but cant back him after his illness despite his strong claims. I think Champagne Fever will go close once again at the Festival but just think Sire De Grugy will a gear too many up the hill. 2pts Sire De Grugy 7/2 bet365

[Toast]

Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm A big interest in the race for me is not running ( Hinterland ), and to be honest, I could rip apart every runner in the race. One that instantly goes is Sire De Grugy. I've been doing some research over the past month, of the winners of group 1 races on the flat, and how they are prepped. I should imagine that grade 1 NH races produce similar results. At the moment, my results would suggest, that at the highest grade, a horse should have a proper prep. Namely 1or 2 races within 4 weeks, then a break of 5 weeks. This will be SDG 3rd race in a month. Looked beaten when falling behind Mr Mole, then easily winning a 4 runner handicap at Chepstow, which told us nothing. Sprinter Sacre can do 1 aswell, just on Hendersons record with chasers. He just cannot keep them right like he can with his hurdlers. Special Tiara is the ew play, but her win to run ratio is poor. Much safer to stick with the inform Dodging Bullets who's competed and won the correct prep races.

[Smarty72]

Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm Same again one Uk and one Irish runner.... Sprinter Sacre - Win @ 7\2 PP Good return run behind Dodging Bullets and likely to come on for that run. Have a real soft spot for this horse who was pure class and is one of the great 2m chasers. Just hope he can prove that he is the best again! Champagne Fever - Win @ 5\1 Coral Won the 2m Supreme Novice in 2013, head 2nd on the Arkle last year. All runs this year have been over further but a return to 2m will suit. Loves Cheltenham but so do most of the runners!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm 3.20 Cheltenham - 2pts win Sprinter Sacre @ 7/2 (Hills) Difficult to have any real confidence about a lot of the field but I do think Sprinter Sacre is worth chancing at 7/2. Barry Geraghty has been very positive about the horse suggesting that he has improved for his reappearance and if he truly is in the same form at home as before 2013, as stated by the jockey, then 7/2 could look silly. It's hard to believe it's 100% the case but hopefully the spark will be back today that was slightly missing at Ascot and can win again.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm So this race is a minefield of horses with doubts and my first selection is one that doesnt have any. Champagne Fever was nabbed last year after an interupted campaign but he is better this season and he is back down to his best trip IMO having won the Champion Bumper, Supreme and then a going a whisker away in the Arkle. That record is incredible and we know that Mullins will have him spot on for today. He will jump slickly, he will travel kindly and he will stay up the hill. I watched last years Arkle back and he takes about 5 lengths out of Dodging Bullets up the run in up the hill. I see no reason for that form to be reversed today. With that in mind, I originally struck DB off my list, Sprinter Sacre was off my list due to his problems, Sire De Grugy the same, Mr Mole wont be good enough, Special Tara neither, Simply Ned might pick up the pieces, and both Sizing Europe and Somersby are too long in the tooth now. However when I looked at the race again, I came up with a theory, a theory about the greatest racehorse I have probably seen in Sprinter Sacre and hopefully my theory may just see him back to his glory days.... This may be a bit of a nostalgic bet so skip to the next thread if you dont want to read talking shit for a paragraph! My theory is based on RPR ratings as in his pomp, SS had run to around 178/179 on his 3 starts on heavy/soft on the year of his Champion Chase win. When he returned to good ground at Cheltenham and Aintree he recorded RPR's of 190 each time. On his return at Ascot SS recorded an RPR of 171 on soft & testing ground. Now I dont care what Barry "everyhorse I ride has a great chance" Gerraghty has to say and I dont really care too much on what Henderson says either (albeit he has said this isnt the Sprinter of old but he is as good as we can get him) but I do have an inclination to know what Nico De Boinville has to say and by all accounts from the quotes I have read, he is pretty happy with where SS is compared to how he was in his wonder years and also in his darkest days. He is frightfully posh but he is an excellent horse man and given his comments were away from the limelight that Barry and Henderson face I will take them with a bit more value. So based on Hendersons comments about this being a new SS, I will treat him as a new horse aside from the fact that the one thing we know is that he will be better on good ground. Previously he was 11-12lb better on RPR but I would say that he only needs to find 8-9lb improvement on his last run to win fairly well. Looking at that one piece of form logically I would dictate that DB is likely to be up to 5lb worse for the hill, SS will be at least 5lb better for the ground and maybe even a few lb better in himself generally. Therefore even if Sprinter is not the force of old, which I doubt he is, then there is still a very good chance that he could run to an RPR of around 180 which would be enough to see off this field. Champagne Fever 11/2 Paddy Power - 1 point Sprinter Sacre 9/2 Corals - 0.5 points - MBF

[Aidymac]

Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm Cheltenham 3:20 - Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase(Grade 1) (1) 2m I tipped up Champagne Fever as a bet, but WIllie Mullins has pulled the grey out of the race at the very last minute. The horse that should be able to take full advantage now is SIRE DE GRUGY who is 3/1 with Sky Bet. The 9 year old has had an interrupted campaign and all was not well at Newbury in February where he unseated rider in a race where Mr Mole went on to bolt up. With now huge question marks over whether he would be able to take part in the Queen Mother after that shocker, connections decided to run him at Chepstow a couple of weeks later. This was a different Sire De Grugy, the horse we all know well, the one that won the Queen Mother Champion Chase last year. He jumped brilliantly, always looked in control and comes here in great heart. I think there are question marks over Sprinter Sacre, I don't buy into the hype myself and I hope the Moore's have another amazing day at Cheltenham. >>>>> Sire De Grugy - 4 Points WIN @ 3/1 Sky Bet https://www.punterslounge.com/cheltenham-festival/

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm Time for a rethink now CF is out. Looking at the race again, Im not keen on Sire De Grugy back from 2 quick runs where he hasnt proved a great deal, Dodging Bullets doesnt find anything in the last 200 yards and Mr Mole is a nut case and won a race that fell apart. Special Tiara could be a pace angle because I cant see many will want to go off as quick as her however I think Simply Ned now has a chance of winning, or at the very least placing. Firstly he has already beaten Dodging Bullets around here on soft before running a big race in Ireland on heavy where the form has worked out well. He is better on good ground and ran a blinder at Aintree behind Balder Succes staying on late. This race is likely to be ran at quite a brisk pace, and I can see Sprinter and Sire De Grugy eyeballing each other most of the way round to see who cracks first. If they do crack, and DB stops on the run in then I can see Simply Ned bounding up behind them to nab them on the line. Simply Ned 14/1 Paddy Power - 0.5 points EW - MB if second to Sprinter.

[beaker1]

Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase This year’s renewal is not unlike an episode of Casualty with Sprinter Sacre recovering from a heart fibrillation, Sire De Grugy missed the bulk of the season so far down to muscle problems, Dodging Bullets has been transformed partly by a wind operation and Mr Mole’s improvement from the psychiatric ward has been nothing short of dramatic. Sprinter Sacre will be attempting to become the third horse to regain his crown after losing it but, surprisingly, the record of the defending Champion Chaser of late has been very poor with just one winning from the last 12 to try and ten of those started favourite or second-favourite, so that is a statistic that Sire De Grugy has to overcome. The best guide by a country mile has been the Tingle Creek in which Dodging Bullets beat Somersby. Ten of the last 14 winners ran in the Tingle Creek. Dodging Bullets then won the Clarence House Chase that has been contested by the last three Champion Chase winners with two winning so he has certainly been running in the right races this season. Maybe this is just a small point but it is worth mentioning that the last five winners to be aged seven or younger were all French-breds which is not an ideal statistic for the British-bred Dodging Bullets. At the other end of the age scale, given that it took an all-time two-mile chasing great in Moscow Flyer to become the only winner aged over ten since 1977 it is hard to make a case for the former winner and dual runner-up Sizing Europe (13) or last season’s second Somersby (11). Dodging Bullets has improved plenty since finishing fourth in last year’s Arkle which has been a cracking guide. For example, the last 14 Arkle winners to run here all placed. Last year’s winner is on the sidelines but the narrow runner-up Champagne Fever has a great record when he is dropped back to 2m and has a Cheltenham Festival pedigree second to none at this year’s meeting having also won the Bumper and Supreme. Nineteen of the last 30 winners have won at the Festival so he meets that criterion as do Sprinter Sacre, Sire De Grugy, Sizing Europe and Savello. The Irish have won five of the last 12 runnings and Champagne Fever is the chief hope ahead of Special Tiara, Sizing Europe and Savello. With 32 of the last 33 winners sent off at a SP of no bigger than 11/1 (and 13 of the last 15 could be found at no bigger than 5/1), this is not the race to go in search of that elusive big-priced winner so last year’s Grand Annual winner Savello is likely to struggle though that handicap hasn’t been a bad guide at all with Pearlyman, Katabatic and Edredon Bleu having won it before winning a Champion Chase and Fota Island finishing second. His fellow Irish raider, Special Tiara, is also likely to fall outside of the price bracket but he did win the Desert Orchid Chase like three of the last eight winners. Only sixth last year after early mistakes, the faster the ground the better or this front runner. Clarcam is a likely non runner. Of the leading fancies Mr Mole is the only non Grade 1 winner and only one of the last 13 winners had failed to win at the highest level. Simply Ned and Savello have also yet to win at the highest level. Simply Ned is also likely to fall outside of this SP bracket and has it to do on placed efforts in last season’s Maghull (which has been a good guide), the Sholer Chase (where he had Dodging Bullets one place back before his improvement) and the Grade 1 in Ireland over Christmas. Mr Mole did win a graded chase last time out like 9 of the last 12 winners when winning a very strange Game Spirit Chase last time out so Sprinter Sacre also fails on this stat. So does Sire De Grugy who won a handicap instead but at least he won so hard to call that a negative in his case. Short List Champagne Fever Dodging Bullets (Sire De Grugy) Conclusion CHAMPAGNE FEVER has a lot in his favour being an Irish-trained horse with Festival form figures of 112 who excels when he drops back down to 2m. Two Arkle runner-ups have won the following season so it’s not all about the winner of last season’s novice championship in that respect and four horses since 1989 who failed to stay in the King George then successfully dropped back in trip to win the Champion Chase from not all that many to try. The only slight negative for DODGING BULLETS is that when a seven-year-old has won, it has tended to be a French-bred of late but, other than that, he has won the best two guides of the current season and his trainer has a strong win-and-place record in the race. Not having won a Grade 1 race is the major sticking point for his stable mate, Mr Mole, and Sprinter Sacre did not win last time out so he can’t make a trends-based short list. The record of defending title holder is not good of late but SIRE DE GRUGY completes the short list having won last time out (albeit not in a graded race) and being assured of starting at no bigger than 11/1 which is a big stat that rules out everything else in the race.

[scotty657]

Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm This is a fiesty affair but I make SIRE DE GRUGY the pick at the odds of 3/1. He recovered easily from that fall at Newbury. He's proved it all and it's quite hard to pick holes in any of the form. SIZING EUROPE was an impressive winner of the Punchestown Champions Chase in April and represents some EW value at 33/1. The old fellas has done it all before and appears in good spirits while not dealing with the heavy ground at Clonmel last time.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm Gutting to see Sprinter go out like that. Found nothing at all. Crap Champion Chase though, Dodging Bullets came through to win it but the 2 other placed horses should have been nowhere near him. Can't help but think Champagne Fever would have smashed the lot.

[danj2202]

Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm completely agree. I dont believe in a proper champion chase that any of the first 3 home has any business winning one.