Supreme Novices' Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 1:30pm

[Aidymac]

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[beaker1]

Re: Supreme Novices' Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 1:30pm 2015 Supreme Novices Hurdle Trends 16 of the last 18 winners won last time out 17 of the last 20 winners ran in the previous 45 days 17 of the last 19 win and place positions were filled by ex-bumper horses 13 of the last 23 runnings were won by Irish trained horses 4 of the last 12 winners finished in the first 5 in last season’s Champion Bumper Only 2 of the last 11 horses to start 2/1 or shorter have won Only 3 of the last 18 winners were given noticeable hold-up rides Only 1 of the last 20 winners had not run in the previous 68 days

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Supreme Novices' Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 1:30pm I havent really got any strong theories about this race but on my ratings L'ami Serge is a clear pick and I see no reason why he wont go close in this race. Henderson has a strong record in the contest and his runner has been the clear domestic pick having won nicely on each of his three starts this year. I imagine he will probably be even better for the better ground as well and I think it will take a very good one to beat him. My other selection in the race will be Shaneshill. Dropping back to 2 miles up the hill will suit him down to the ground and so will the drying surface. He has ran well on the last two occasions and whilst the winner of his last start has disappointed I know the stable and jockey hold him in high regard and he is likely to be better than he showed. The way Shaneshill jumped into the lead in that contest showed his class before he was ultimately outstayed over 20f so as I mentioned the drop back in trip is a bonus. He will be the Mullins second string but the price is more than fair for a horse of his quality who showed his liking for Cheltenham last year, only just succumbing to Silver Concorde in the Champion Bumper. There are pretty of specials around for this so make sure you fill your boots!

[richard-westwood]

Re: Supreme Novices' Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 1:30pm I like to have a good bash at chelt but I want some value so as impressive douvan has been ...his price is too short for me so ive got to take him on ............lami serge looks good value at 7/2 ....very quick horse and will be be hard to hold back .....perfect for this type of race and twice the price of the fav ...................I also like the look of qewy ...who ran a decent race lto ..winning by wide margin easily and I think bookies have underrated that performance at 14/1looks very good value ...........and also ...some plan at 40/1 also has a squeak at a huge price....destroyed the grey tailor lto and that looks pretty decent form so no 40/1 shot should be less than half that ......ill take the tag team lami serge 4 pts win 7/2 lads qewy 2pts win 14/1 lads some plan 1pt win 40/1 boyles 5 ew double on qewy and three kingdoms later .....im goin for j ferguson fest !!!

[PeterX]

Re: Supreme Novices' Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 1:30pm Douvan is a huge hype horse and if the hype is right it will hose up. That said a lot of fancied favourites have failed here at Cheltenham and in this race. I can't back a 7/4 fav that's got concerns over the ground. L'ami Serge looks a real player and could get Henderson off to a flyer. However I think the value in the race lies with John Fergusons Qewy, an ex flat horse from Ireland and an impressive winner last time out with the form of the second franked. Slight concerns over the drying ground but at the prices I'm siding with Qewy at 14/1.

[Aidymac]

Re: Supreme Novices' Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 1:30pm Cheltenham 1:30 - Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle(Grade 1) (1) 2m 110yds Willie Mullins is heavy handed once more in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, a race he has won the last two years running with Champagne Fever and Vautour, but QEWY is the horse I am backing @ 14/1 with Ladbrokes. John Ferguson is a very shrewd operator, and gets the best out of his ex-flat horses, and this horse looks highly under-estimated by the bookmakers. The 5 year old gelding out of Street Cry won't lack pace, a fair performer on the flat, and he demolished the Nicky Henderson trained Cardinal Walter at Newbury last month, eased down at the finish. Cardinal Walter then went on to Doncaster and won by 15 lengths, so that form has received an enormous boost to say the least. Qewy was formerly trained by John Oxx, and his highest mark was 107 after a Listed success at Leopardstown in April of last year. Tony McCoy rode him last time out, and the way he cruised into the race and quickened away was very impressive, and with the ground forecast good to soft, the little bit of cut in the ground will suit so I think he has solid claims. >>>>> Qewy - 1 Point each-way @ 14/1 Ladbrokes https://www.punterslounge.com/cheltenham-festival/

[BillyHills]

Re: Supreme Novices' Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 1:30pm 1.30 Cheltenham: Sky Bet Supreme Novices Hurdle (2m110y) Douvan has been well backed to open the account for the Irish raiders and to complete a treble in the race for trainer Willie Mullins and jockey Ruby Walsh after Champagne Fever and Vautour. We shouldn’t forget that it’s been ten years now since a clear favourite has obliged in the Supreme although fancied runners do seem to go well. Six of the best; Douvan – Ran twice over hurdles since being bought from France and couldn’t have impressed anymore than he has. Won the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer hurdle last time in emphatic style and the leading contender from a powerful yard and the one to beat. L’Ami Serge – Trained by Nicky Henderson and the yards only Grade 1 winner this season when winning the Tolworth at Sandown. Also won at Newbury and Ascot but was beaten six times in France on heavy ground so maybe he will improve for a better surface and there’s more to come from this one. Big danger to the favourite. Jollyallan – Harry Fry’s number one contender, won his first three races over hurdles in good style and that followed a decent 6^th in the Punchestown Champion bumper. Stepped up to Listed company last time at Sandown and was second to Garde La Victoire who had previously won the Greatwood Hurdle. Qewy – John Ferguson saddles this 5yo who was formerly with John Oxx on the flat. Finished second on his hurdles debut at Haydock in a Grade 2 contest and then showed improved form to win a very competitive Newbury race by 6 lengths from Cardinal Walter who has won since. Every chance he can improve again and will prefer the better ground. Alvisio Ville – Owned by JP McManus and the second string of trainer Willie Mullins. Won his debut race over hurdles easily at Leopardstown and then went back there to run in the Grade 1 Deloitte Hurdle where he could only finish third to stable mate Nichols Canyon. Will need to bounce back to have any chance here. Tell Us More – Willie Mullins has four runners and this one is the Gigginstown Stud entry. Won a point and a bumper before completing the set with a smooth win at Gowran Park over hurdles. Stepped up in class last time and beaten by McKinley at Naas. Well regarded and an each way shout if at his best. Verdict: Both Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson think they have a star on their hands with Douvan and L’Ami Serge and I’d be surprised if something else in the line up is better than these pair. Douvan is very short in the betting so the value has to be with the Henderson horse who did win the Tolworth and the stables only Grade 1 winner. L’Ami Serge 2pts 7/2 Betfred

[scotty657]

Re: Supreme Novices' Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 1:30pm If Douvan lives upto the hype then he'll hose up here but is probably to short for me and there's two I marked up shorter than the prices on offer. BENTELIMAR is a proven type and has shown stamina in some of his runs including a handicap win at Leopardstown over 20f. He's been seen more often than most of these rivals but can't assume he's exposed and can still come on again. Scored pretty easily at Punchestown last time and is big at the 25/1 on offer. SEEDLING for Warren Greatrex is another at a price of 20/1 that can outrun the odds. He sees his races out really well and this test could irk out even more improvement. Admittedly his recent form has been in modest company but can't be discounted on that for me.

[Smarty72]

Re: Supreme Novices' Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 1:30pm Going to have 2 shots on every race this year, one from the UK and 1 from Ireland. L'Ami Serge - Win @ 7\2 Bet365 3 from 3 in this country with a Grade 1 win in the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown in his latest run. Sets the standard for the UK entries. Shaneshill - Win @ 12\1 Bet365 2nd in the Champion bumper last year and then followed up at Punchestown in Irish champion bumper. Think will be suited by drop back to 2m and Paul Townend might be the man to upset Ruby Day while keeping the Mullins juggernaut on the road.

[beaker1]

Re: Supreme Novices' Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 1:30pm Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Twelve horses have been declared, four of which representing Willie Mullins in search of his fifth Supreme winner and all four of his biggest owners have a runner; Douvan for Susannah and Rich Ricci, Shaneshill for Andrea and Graham Wylie, Alvisio Ville for J P McManus and Tell Us More for Gigginstown. In fact, the Irish outnumber the British by 7-5 with Bentelimar (Shay Barry), Sizing John (Henry De Bromhead) and Velvet Maker (Tony Martin) also declared as they bid to record a fourteenth success in the last 24 runnings, so this has comfortably been their best race at the Festival. Bentelimar has won his last two starts like 12 of the last 18 winners. Only Douvan, L’Ami Serge and Seedling have done likewise amongst his rivals and he could be a forgotten horse. Velvet Maker is a second-season hurdler who needed four starts to get off the mark over timber last time out. Bookmakers will want to take on Douvan and especially in the knowledge that short-priced favourites have a terrible record in the Supreme as only two of the last 11 horses to start at under 2/1 have won. It will be touch and go whether starts at under 2/1 given that the layers will want to get him and sentimental punters could also come for McCoy’s mount, Jollyallan, who he has chosen of Alvisio Ville who is ridden by David Casey. Alvisio Ville ran as if dropping back to 2m would suit him when he was third in the Deloitte but only two of the last 18 Supreme winners were beaten last time out which is also against Jollyallan, though he was beaten by a second-season hurdler in Garde La Victoire. Both are owned by J P McManus who has seen his colours twice carried to victory but he has also had as many as six runners-up, five ridden by McCoy, for whom this has not been his lucky race. Also beaten last time out was Shaneshill over 2m4f and last season’s Weatherbys Champion Bumper runner-up (4 of the last 12 winners ran well in that race 12 months earlier) has a second stat to defy as 17 of the last 20 winners ran in the last 45 days and that defeat was before Christmas which only Captain Cee Bee of recent winners has managed to overcome. Shaneshill was Neptune bound before Nichols Canyon in the same ownership won the Deloitte and needs to jump quicker. Tell Us More was also beaten last time out over 2m4f in a Grade 1 but shaped like a drop back to 2m would suit him having made most and jumped slickly until he was passed on the run-in by Mckinley. Sizing John has also not run this year since causing an upset in a weak Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas having previously been slammed 12l by Douvan and that’s a stat I don’t like. Similarly, Seedling has not run for 88 days which is also longer than ideal. Only one horse to have run on the Flat has finished in the first three in the last seven years which is against Qewy who won the same novice hurdle at Newbury that Shadow Leader and Al Ferof took before they won the Supreme. Seedling also won a race that has had a bearing on the Supreme when beating Some Plan under a double penalty at the December Meeting but he has not run since. Some Plan then franked the form with an easy win in the Scottish Supreme Trial and could be the front runner in a race where they have a good record. The main home hope, however, looks to be L’Ami Serge who despite being 0-6 in France, has seriously impressed with three wins for Nicky Henderson including the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle on softer ground than he enjoys for a horse who showed a good turn of foot to win at Ascot. Henderson may not have trained the winner since Flown in 1992 but he has had as many as nine top-four finishers in the last eight years alone so he has a strong each-way look about him even if he has been off the course since the first week in January. He is very experienced so his trainer didn’t feel the need to give him a prep race. Short List Bentelimar L’Ami Serge Douvan Conclusion It’s a tricky one with DOUVAN because if he starts under 2/1 the stats are against him but he has a heck of a lot in his favour otherwise and bookmakers will want to get him so he might start at 2/1 or bigger. Therefore he makes the short list as he is the only one of the Mullins quartet to have won last time out like all but two of the last 18 winners as he bids to give his trainer a fifth win in the race. Nicky Henderson’s place record suggests that we have to give L’AMI SERGE serious each-way consideration and, like Douvan, he is just one of four horses in the line up to have won his last two starts like 12 of the last 18 winners. Many will view him as an each-way steal at around 5/1. Another horse to win his last two starts is BENTELIMAR who looks the best overall each-way value of the race. He is as tough as they come and would be a much shorter price if trained by a more fashionable stable than that of Shay Barry. Tell Us More appeals most of the horses beaten last time out dropping back to 2m and the other each-way alternative to the big two.

[Binchy]

Re: Supreme Novices' Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 1:30pm Key Stats : 19 of the last 20 winners ran in the previous 68 days (Seedling, Shaneshill, Sizing John) 10 of 10 ran won at least half their hurdle starts (L'ami Serge, Velvet Maker) Small e/w bet on Benteliamr @ 33/1.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Supreme Novices' Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 1:30pm 1.30 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Seedling @ 22/1 (Bet365) Douvan will be tough to beat here and I realise my selection isn't as classy as that one or others in this field and his profile isn't particularly similar but has rock solid form in the book and has a high rating in this. The form has worked out very well from his wins this season and could be a quiet little outsider here. Should be suited by an end to end gallop here and I think he can work his way into the fold late on.

[the_stumpster]

Re: Supreme Novices' Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 1:30pm Morning chaps, I have been a fan of Douvan since he won his first race for Mr Mullins and this looked the obvious race for them to target. I managed to get my hands on the 3/1 ladbrokes offered this morning. Seedling looks a shrude each way punt. Best of luck for the week.