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mrnice

Tour de France 2015

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With Froome publicly strongly hinting that he will not ride the TDF in 2015, now is probably the time to grab a good price on any of the other big 3, Contador, Nibali or Quintana. That is if long-term, almost "fixed term deposit account" betting is your cup of tea.

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Re: Tour de France 2015

Froome has now changed his mind! He is now targetting the TDF. Great value at 888 @ 11/4.
Sorry it's awful value this far out from the tour especially as the route suites others better than him. He's also got to get there in one piece. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum

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I'll summarize the potential key stages for General Classification betting. This website has all the stage profiles handily listed on 1 page: http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/racin...te-2015-140386 I've probably missed some potential crosswinds etc., but hopefully it's a useful overview. Let me know if any of the facts are wrong. Here's hoping for another masterclass this year from Crouch Potato and the other experts on this forum. :) July 4th (Saturday) - 13.8km Time Trial Completely flat. Tour winners have tended to show very well in prologues, and this is not the shortest. Time gaps will be modest, but contenders will be going all out, so it might provide some information. July 6th (Monday) - Cat 3 finish Only a classics stage, but late hilly sections can produce fast, intense racing in the first week of the tour. I can see things getting pretty serious. Keep an eye out for any big names struggling on the final Mur de Hey. July 7th (Tuesday) - Cobbles Always an injury risk, so might be worth postponing GC bets until after. Expect some GC contenders to lose significant time. July 11th (Saturday) - Cat 3 finish When the fourth stage of the 2011 tour also finished on Mur-de-Bretagne, only nine elite riders finished with the same time; Cadel Evans took the stage on his way to winning the tour. There won't be big time gaps, but it might show who's weak. July 12th (Sunday) - 28km Team Time Trial Always important. Unusual to have a TTT so far in to the tour - could be a real problem for teams who lose riders in the opening week. July 14th (Tuesday) - HC finish Critical for punters, as the first mountaintop finish often tells you who's going to win. Comes after a rest day, and there are no other mountains to soften up the field before La Pierre-Saint-Martin, but I expect a devastating tempo as they near the climb. July 15th (Wednesday) - Mountains, Cat 3 finish Interesting stage profile. The Col d'Aspin and its descent are immediately followed by the Tourmalet, which they crest 40km from the finish. Then, a huge descent leading straight to the modest final climb (Cote de Cauterets). I wonder whether the GC contenders will really go to war or not. July 16th (Thursday) - Mountains, Cat 1 finish A third consecutive hard day in the Pyrenees, but with the mountains slightly spread out. There's an easy 35km prior to the final climb. Still, the Plateau de Beille will sort out the field. July 18th (Saturday) - Medium mountains, Cat 2 finish Finishes with the short, steep Cote de la Croix Neuve, following directly on from a Category 4 climb and descent. There's also 1km of flat at the end. Gaps will be modest, but expect an intense finish. July 20th (Monday) - Medium mountains, Descent finish Doesn't really look like a GC-type stage, but with the rest day coming up, someone could attack up and down the Category 2 Col de Manse. Descending rarely decides tours, but a downhill attack is doable on this stage. July 22nd, (Wednesday) - Mountains, Cat 2 finish The day's final alp, Pra Loup, comes straight after the climb then steep descent of the Category 1 Col d'Allos. Pra Loup is only a 6km climb, so a descent attack is again a possibility. July 23rd (Thursday) - Mountains, Flat finish Up and down the Col du Glandon, then a fairly flat 10km. Next, a short, sharp kick up Lacets de Montvernier, followed by an easy 10km to the finish. Probably just a quiet stage for GC, but tough enough to mention in case someone spots a rival having a bad day. July 24th (Friday) - Mountains, Cat 1 finish Consecutive mountains and descents, then a long, grinding climb up La Toussuire. July 25th (Saturday) - Mountains, HC finish Will we get a spectacular finish? A short stage culminates with the legendary climb through the wild crowds of Alpe d'Huez.

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I guess this year's GC is all about the big four: Froome (2/1), Quintana (5/2), Contador (5/1) & Nibali (5/1). Contador's trying to complete the rare & difficult Giro-Tour double; Nibali's preparations seem to have been hampered by injury; Froome looked good in the Dauphine; the course should favour Quintana's climbing expertise. However, the bet that interests me is Rafal Majka @9/2 (Paddy Power) to finish in the top 10. He'll be riding for Contador, not the polka-dot jersey, and maybe he's targeting the Vuelta. However, if he's in the elite climbing groups, he can rise up the classification. Modest form so far this season, but he seems to endure well over the really long battles. I can see him giving up time in the first week though, plus there's always the danger of early crashes, so I'm wondering whether to hold off a bit... The 25/1 to finish in the top 3 might be worth considering too.

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