snooker arb?

[Bruise Pristene]

mods can i have a bit in here for the traffic please, then move to other sports? cheers on betfair at mo, there is a bet "new champion?" and the yes odds are 2.06. Ronnie o sullivan is 2.36 I think i may have misunderstood this, is this a guarenteed profit if you back both of these? any opinions welcome

[Norfolk Enchance]

Re: snooker arb? Just checked the rules Bruise Will this years Embassy World Championship be won by a player who has previously never won this competition before? Ronnie's not the only player to have won it before

[Bruise Pristene]

Re: snooker arb? ah right, i see, thought that "new champion" meant someone other than ronnie, thought it was too good to be true

[Norfolk Enchance]

Re: snooker arb? Yeah I thought you were on to something there when I first read your post

[davidcampbell]

Re: snooker arb? aye unlucky bruise. that would have been a good one :(

[Bruise Pristene]

Re: snooker arb? nevermind guys, to use this thread for something constructive now, is that what an arb is (if it had turned out to be one). I've often looked around betfair, and because they have loads of markets, thought I'd been close to one of these before one thing I think I might be able to find if I had a quick enough net connection and the time, is discrepancies in score odds. for example on any big match, they offer markets like "total goals", "correct score", "under/over". only thought this as I have just seen with man u/newcastle "0-0" correct score at 12.5, and under "first scorer", the "no goal" at 11.5, arent these just the same bet?

[davidcampbell]

Re: snooker arb? not quite mate given the own goal factor. if you back no scorer and there is an own goal (which is the only goal) then you will still win backing 0-0 in this case, would obviously lose. to answer your first question, im no expert but what you found on the snooker would be an arb, if my understanding is correct. DC

[spreadman]

Re: snooker arb? Just as a point of interest , and having a spare moment, I thought I'd mention that, on the subject of 'arbs', they occur throughout all in running spread bets, if you bet, or 'trade' in the right direction. In tonight's Birmingham v Portsmouth match if you had bet on uder 2.5 goals with a 'sell' trade, after 80 minutes you could have had a 'buy' bet at less than one goal - a clear profit, in a no lose situation, of 1.5 points. If a goal was scored in the last 10 minutes your buy bet would win more than your sell bet would lose. If 50 goals were scored, or no more, the profit would still be safely built in. Good luck with your Arb hunting. Spreadman.:ok

[davidcampbell]

Re: snooker arb? ?? sell the unders at 80mins then buy them back? or if you mean sell the unders earlier then buy back at 80 minutes, thats not an arb. thats a trade. (isnt it?)

[spreadman]

Re: snooker arb? Quite correct David. I was merely providing Bruise with an option he may wish to consider in the future. The best time to sell total goals is normally before or at the start of a match, the longer it goes on goalless, the lower the spread, the better the profit. Obviously, the skill lies in trading before a goal is scored. Even then you can trade 'in' and 'out' as the game progresses for a running profit. Taking the literal meaning of 'arb', then , yes, I am describing a trade, not an arb, but I think it is of general interest to all PL'ers and specifically to Bruise to point out any potential source of profit, whether it is taken up or not, regardless of semantics and the strict definition of betting terms. I believe that assisting fellow punters is one of the important 'prime directives' of the Punter's Lounge, as well as constructive 'argument' and, dare I say it, criticism... That's just my humble opinion, feel free to differ! Good Luck, Spreadman.:ok

[kompressaur]

Re: snooker arb? Cheers Spreadman that was a good read :ok

[spreadman]

Re: snooker arb? Thanks Kompressaur, you can have first go in my 'A' Class Mercedes, (see- 'A' Class thread), if the world hasn't run out of petrol by the time my betting bank reaches £15595!:cry

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: snooker arb?

Quite correct David. I was merely providing Bruise with an option he may wish to consider in the future. The best time to sell total goals is normally before or at the start of a match, the longer it goes on goalless, the lower the spread, the better the profit. Obviously, the skill lies in trading before a goal is scored. Even then you can trade 'in' and 'out' as the game progresses for a running profit. Taking the literal meaning of 'arb', then , yes, I am describing a trade, not an arb, but I think it is of general interest to all PL'ers and specifically to Bruise to point out any potential source of profit, whether it is taken up or not, regardless of semantics and the strict definition of betting terms. I believe that assisting fellow punters is one of the important 'prime directives' of the Punter's Lounge, as well as constructive 'argument' and, dare I say it, criticism... That's just my humble opinion, feel free to differ! Good Luck, Spreadman.:ok

Summed up PL perfectly spreadman. :)

[Markpl1]

Re: snooker arb? I don't normally talk about this kind of thing on here firstly I am paranoid (typical of my profession) and secondly you lot spend valuable time trying to seek good bets where as i couldn't give a stuff wether it is a good bet or not. Yes I am professional arbritrage bettor. I have been arbing for about 4 years on and off started off when I was student for a few extra quid. I recently quit my job cos I couldn't stand it ( I was a Maths teacher) now im putting my time into arbing. I have resting balance of around 5k in my account. Which I arb with I clear roughly a grand a month doing this (make a bit playing poker as well). It is not as easy game as it was earlier in the decade when 5% arbs could be find without too much trouble. I know grind out on 1-2% arbs. Best sports are tennis, football and the current snooker champs are good. Betfair is an absolute goldmine if a bookie is out of line you just get down to betfair and lay it off. I would be dead in the water without betfair (god bless em). Anyone has any technical question about arbing im happy to answer them. Tho i won't give all my secrets away as it is genuinely a skill which takes a while to perfect

[Markpl1]

Re: snooker arb? The arb on the snooker at the top would have been if the rules were right. It would have been about 10%. Putting 500 quid on you would have been guarenteed £549.95 New champion put £266.97 on at 2.06 Ronnie £233.03 on at 2.36 Hey presto 50 notes no risk

[Pobby]

Re: snooker arb? Just to pick up on Spreadman's example of the Birmingham game, the profit to which he refers i.e 1.5 points (approx) after 80 minutes relies on the unlikely event of amatch being 0 - 0 after 80 minutes. (I'm no statastician, but I think the % of games at 0 - 0 after 80 would be quite low). To apply the analogy for the Man U v Newcastle match yesterday if you were under 2.5 at the start, at 80 mins with the score at 4 - 1 you would probbaly have had to buy back about 6 ish giving aloss of 3.5. In fact after the 1st goal in 19 minutes at no stage would you have been able to buy back to lock in a profit. Of course the opposite is true with the United's game if you had bought goals at 2.8. You could have locked in your profit by selling at various stages through the game.

[spreadman]

Re: snooker arb? Have just read the posts here - quite correct Pobby, you would find it difficult to make any profit once the first goal has been scored and the spread goes up, probably by as much as one goal. I recently had a similar dilemma with a bookings 'sell' - for those unfamiliar with this bet, if you sell bookings you want a clean, low fouls match. For each booking that the ref makes you lose 10 points,(yellow card), and a red card costs you 25 points. The maximum loss per player is 35 points. If you start off with a 30 points sell, you begin to lose cash after 3 bookings have been made, at 10 points per name going into the ref's notebook. This scenario happened when early on in a match, ( quite a few matches have no bookings in the first half), a booking occurred. This automatically causes the spread to go up, just as in the Man U total goals analogy. However if a few bookings occur in rapid succession, this can artificially inflate the spread, say up to 59-61.This means that if I closed the trade by buying back at 61 points,I would lose 31 points, even at £1 a point, not a happy prospect, ( 61-30=31). So to try to turn the potential loss around, I 'sold' bookings again,but this time at 59,for £2 per point. So, with the current bookings standing at 40, I had a current loss of £10, but, if no further bookings were made, I would also win £38 - because 59-40=19 points, and 19 points x£2 = £38. Taking my loss of £10 away from my gain of £38 left an overall match profit of £28 - not a fortune, but turning a loss in to a win. The point of this is to show that even when your back is against the wall spreadbetting can allow you to turn a potential loss in to a win. Fortunately, in this example, no further bookings were made. If the bookings total had gone above 60, (6 bookings), I would lose at the rate of £30 per booking! In the above situation, if you really feel that the game is turning into a brawl, then you do have the option to 'buy' yourself out of the potential loss - by buying at 61, at £5 per point. A 70 point match total, (or 'make up'), would mean a loss of £40, (70-30), but a win of £45, (70-61=9x£5=£45.), a profit of £5. So, Pobby is correct in his observation, but there is a potential loss saver in this seemingly 'no win' situation....at least, in spreadbetting. In response to Markpl1's posts - I admire your bravery- I have heard some horror stories with regards to 'arbs' losses. I suppose that once you become experienced in your chosen field of 'sporting event prediction speculation', (BETTING!), you develop a routine, and particularly with arb betting, the outcome is usually predictable and profit predetermined.Unlike spreadbetting which can 'involve high risk', and frequent changes of underwear. I once, stupidly, asked for a free trial of arbs e-mails and my inbox creaked under the strain of hundreds of daily arbs - most with a 2% or less return, o.k., it was profit guaranteed, but 'risk' or tie up £500+ for a £5 profit? Not for me, although I have made the rare arb on spreadbetting, before the match has been played. Still, good luck to you, Mark, always good to have a variety of input and opinions. Why not start a new thread with arb advice or even tips - you wouldn't have to give away any 'trade secrets'! Anyways, Good luck to one and all! Spreadman..:ok

[Pobby]

Re: snooker arb? Another take on the bookings spreads is booking supremacy i.e one teams booking points over another, the scoring is as Spreadman has described it 10/yellow 25/red. Generally the away team will be "favourite" e.g Arsenal are 6 - 10 over Chelsea this evening. This market is updated at half time. A particularly annoying one personally was the Lazio Chelsea game last season. Mihajlovic had spat in Mutus face in the 1st half and Chelsea were one nil up at halft time. I got with the Lazio booking sup (Can't remember the quote) at HT as it looked like Lazio had lost the plot and it wasn't factored into the spreads. Sure enough Mihajlovic got sent off 2nfd half and Chelsea cruise into a 4 - 0 lead - job done or so it seemed. In one of the most brainless episodes I have ever seen on a pitch Glen F**cking Johnson gets booked and sent off in the last ten minutes with his team 4 - 0 up to cost me 35 points. Interestingly after all the talk the Blackburn Arsenal booking supremacy only made up +10 to Blackburn on Saturday.

[Markpl1]

Re: snooker arb? Cheers Spreadman I think i will put a thread somewhere for people to ask questions. I find that after alot of experience you avoid the pitfalls and maybe i have been just lucky but for the occasional bad arb loss it has always balanced up by a ruling that has gone your way.

[davidcampbell]

Re: snooker arb?

yes, I am describing a trade, not an arb, but I think it is of general interest to all PL'ers and specifically to Bruise to point out any potential source of profit, whether it is taken up or not, regardless of semantics and the strict definition of betting terms. I believe that assisting fellow punters is one of the important 'prime directives' of the Punter's Lounge, as well as constructive 'argument' and, dare I say it, criticism... That's just my humble opinion, feel free to differ! Good Luck, Spreadman.:ok

absolutely agree. wasnt criticising, just checking my understanding of an arb as against a trade. :)

[spreadman]

Re: snooker arb? Don't talk to me about 'brainless episodes', Pobby, - last night the CHELSEA V ARSENAL match sounded good for a bookings buy at 46,for a quid, per point, (in running), but at half time, with no bookings and a ref with short arms and invisible cards, I decided to cut my losses by making a sell trade at 33, for £3 per point, rather than £1 per point, which would have mean't taking a £13 loss, so a potential profit of between £99 and £6 was possible, provided no more than 3 bookings were made. All was fine up until around the 89th minute, just one booking so far for a theatrical dive from one of the divas, and then 3 bookings in less minutes kyboshed any profit, so not only did I lose on my buy trade,( -£6), but also on my sell trade - £21. Not a fortune, but a lesson in getting out before extra time is played and closing your trades. 'Nuff said! Spreadman, £28 lighter.:(

[winbet]

Re: snooker arb? I used to be able to spot many arbs a few years back ranging from 3% to as high as 15%. It is getting harder and harder now with the bookies prices seemingly in line with each other, or they are very quick now to spot if they are out of line.. I don't bother with arbs under 3%. Have to look now more towards trading for which the rise of Betfair and other exchanges has helped. If you have knowledge of which why the market is going, you can sometimes even make a trade even before a match starts. For instance Davis V Holt in the snooker - There was money available to back Davis at 2.16, but I am confident Davis will be favourite by the time the match starts. Can either hedge back then or wait until a frame or two or more is played. It depends how much of a risk taker you are..

[Markpl1]

Re: snooker arb? Davis vs Holt is actually one of the arbs up on betbrain at the mo winbet. Nice spot at 2.16, if you are with unibet they currently have holt at 2.02.