Royal Ascot 2014 ~ Day 5 Saturday 21st

[BillyHills]

In Here:ok [TABLE=class: table, width: 635]

[TR=class: abandoned] [TD]2:30[/TD] [TD]Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) 7f -[/TD] [TD=class: ch, align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: abandoned alt] [TD=bgcolor: #F5F5F5]3:05[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F5F5F5]Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) 1m4f -[/TD] [TD=class: ch, bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3:45[/TD] [TD]Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) 1m4f[/TD] [TD=class: ch, align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: alt] [TD=bgcolor: #F5F5F5]4:25[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F5F5F5]Diamond Jubilee Stakes (British Champions Series & Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) 6f[/TD] [TD=class: ch, bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]5:00[/TD] [TD]Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) 6f[/TD] [TD=class: ch, align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: abandoned alt] [TD=bgcolor: #F5F5F5]5:35[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F5F5F5]Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) 2m5f159y -[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Royal Ascot 2014 ~ Day 5 Saturday 21st Diamond Jubilee stakes is my main even over the 5 days of racing, and the selection has always been a Fav horse of mine. The race was won last year by Lethal Force under Sir Adam Kirby and that jockey lines up again along with last years trainer Mr Clive Cox, however that Combo and the rest of the field really will have to be on their A' Game if they want to challenge the selection. Trainer Mr Roger Varian has never hid how he feels about this 5yr old chestnut horse and even though he's only won the 3 times from 11 starts there is no getting away he is a touch special, he's only had the one start in 2014 that being at HQ where he came home a very powerful 3rd, i backed him that day and yes was a bit disappointed that jockey Paul Hanagan never got him going just a little bit sooner, nothing worse than a horse that's catching catching catching BUT just cant get there ''ON TIME'' That was then and this is now and I'm pretty sure that Paul Hanagan would have been disappointed in ''himself'' for not sealing that race but will have learned from it. The horse in question has a FANTASTIC real athletic rear on him and one of the strongest necks i've ever seen, the ground should be absolutely perfect for him and if given just the right amount of cover and if Hanagan can get the timing spot on they must be involved at the finish. Roger Varian ''so far this year'' has yet to bag a winner but this is by far his best chance of a winner, i feel the prep race back at HQ would have him spot on and the yard have been a little hush hush about the selections chances, but from that last 3rd place effort at Newmarket ''17th April'' on unfavoured ground all that's came is steady cash. I can see him going off about 7/2 or maybe even 3/1 and they prices in my eyes are VERY generous, but some of us have been backing him anti post and the only thing that gets them beat is TRAFFIC, he'll come late, he'' come fast, he'll ?WIN. Ascot 4:25 - ALJAMAAHEER To Win Lets Ave it Paul, LETS Ave It!

[BillyHills]

Re: Royal Ascot 2014 ~ Day 5 Saturday 21st Copied from my QIPCO thread Race 15: Diamond Jubilee Stakes Aljamaaheer (R.Varian) Was a miler last year and ran in some top class races including when second in the Queen Anne Stakes and third in the Lockinge. Won a Group 2 here last July but yet to win at this level. Started this year at 6f and was third to Hamza in the Palace House after blowing the start. He will love this ground and i'm sure he will make up into a top class sprinter and just might be able to upset the favourite Slade Power here on this occasion as he likes it softer than this. Selection 10pts Aljamaaheer 9/2 Stan James

[BillyHills]

Re: Royal Ascot 2014 ~ Day 5 Saturday 21st 3.45 Ascot: Hardwicke Stakes Sir Michael Stoute holds the key here, his record in the race is superb and has won it four times since 2006 and saddles both Hillstar and Telescope. You would have to fancy Telescope on jockey bookings but he has to come back to his best form to win this. Last time he did look better and the trainer may have just lined this up to a tee. Dandino is an obvious danger and the O’Brien horse Eye Of The Storm will be better back at 12f after trying a spell at two miles. Selection: Telescope 5/2 >Paddy Power http://www.ascotbetting.net/royal-ascot-betting-stoute-holds-the-key-to-the-hardwicke

[BillyHills]

Re: Royal Ascot 2014 ~ Day 5 Saturday 21st 5.00 Wokingham Stakes A bit of a pin job as per usual but I will go for one on each side of the course hoping at least one of them will give me some sort of run for my money. Of those drawn high I must go for Seeking Magic, he looked unlucky last time to me and will need to come through traffic but trainer Clive Cox is a dab hand at lining these handicappers up at the right time. He goes up 2lbs after this so is technically well in here. The low numbers are harder to choose from but Glen Moss could be the one as he has obviously improved since the last time he ran over this trip, he’s plenty high enough to be fair but the yard are in good form and will be staying on at the finish over this stiff 6f. Selections: Seeking Magic EW 12/1 Ladbrokes Glen Moss EW 25/1 Skybet http://www.ascotbetting.net/royal-ascot-betting-the-wokingham-can-go-to-seeking-magic

[Aidymac]

Re: Royal Ascot 2014 ~ Day 5 Saturday 21st Royal Ascot 4:25 - Diamond Jubilee Stakes(Group 1) (1) 6f At the prices and after watching over a few videos, I am after having a bet on the French raider American Devil here who looks far too big at 22/1 in my own opinion. The horse has only been with French trainer Libaud a short space of time but he won his two races for him already, the most recent being a Group 3 success at Longchamp. That was over 7 furlongs but he has a high cruising speed and I certainly think he has enough ability to get involved here. Interestingly, Libaud has only ever had one runner at Ascot in the past and that horse, Vision D'Etat, won the Group 1 Prince of Wales Stakes so he clearly knows how to win a Group 1. American Devil - 1 Point each-way @ 22/1 Stan James! Read Full Preview @ http://www.punterslounge.com/diamond-jubilee-stakes-betting-american-devil-can-run-a-big-race-for-the-french

[Aidymac]

Re: Royal Ascot 2014 ~ Day 5 Saturday 21st Royal Ascot 5:00 - Wokingham Stakes(HERITAGE HANDICAP) (2) 6f In what looks a complete lottery, I have had a small each-way bet on the David Marnane trained Nocturnal Affair who looks far too big a price at 33/1. He runs off a mark of 103 here and when you consider his last handicap win was off a mark of 105, he is well in here if he is back near his best. He went off the 5/2 second favourite when 4th behind Scream Blue Murder at Cork last time out and I am certain he is capable of much better than that. He finished 3rd behind Guerre and Maarek in a Listed race at Naas not too long ago and Maarek went on to win a Group 2 at York soon after that so the form looks solid. He is certainly worth an each-way bet at that price. Nocturnal Affair - 1 Point each-way @ 33/1 Bet Victor! Read Full Preview @ http://www.punterslounge.com/wokingham-stakes-betting-nocturnal-affair-can-take-another-big-scalp-for-the-irish

[calculus]

Re: Royal Ascot 2014 ~ Day 5 Saturday 21st 4:25 Ascot - Astaire (10/1 Coral) 1pt Win Landed on this one by a simple process of elimination. This does not look to be a vintage renewal of the Diamond Jubilee and most of these are some way off being Group 1 class. The only ones that are definitively top class are Gordon Lord Byron, Slade Power and Aljamaaheer, and I think there are significant doubts over all of that trio. Gordon Lord Byron has been globe trotting of late and is a class act but he may need a bit further to be seen at his best these days and soft ground would be preferable. I think the ground is a major concern for Slade Power and cannot justify backing him at 4/1 with that question mark hanging over him. Aljamaaheer looks to be the sort of horse that you could follow off several cliffs and while there is no doubting his raw ability I am not sure he will be able to make up the requisite ground here if they get away from him up front, maybe sprinting will be the making of him but I am still skeptical. Astaire ran as well as could be expected behind Maarek last time out and while all the talk has been about Kevin Ryan's other 3yo sprinter I think this fellow could develop into an equally smart individual. Faster ground will do his chances no harm and his high cruising speed should serve him well here, I think he looks sure to be involved and is the value call in a relatively weak renewal.

[Binchy]

Re: Royal Ascot 2014 ~ Day 5 Saturday 21st Anyone else think Groor stands a decent chance of a place in the Chesham? There is not a lot in the race besides the favourite who I think could run away with it. Groor was a close seventh at Sandown LTO getting no run whatsoever and will surely have improved since then. Worth a shout for a place at 80/1 I think.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Royal Ascot 2014 ~ Day 5 Saturday 21st 2.30 Ascot - 3pts win Dick Whittington @ 3/1 (Bet365) I see this as an ideal opportunity to get ahead for the day straight away as I don't think this is the strongest renewal you'll see and I've liked what I've seen of this horse to date. He was a huge eyecatcher behind the high class Cappella Sansevero on debut so we know that form is strong and although beaten next time he was given a very confident ride and I think Joseph O'Brien was expecting him to pick up a bit quicker. However, it was testing ground and he couldn't reel in the winner. His turn of foot was much more potent when routing a decent field recently to land his maiden and the step up to 7f will suit. The quick ground is clearly of no concern and it won't be blunting his change of gear today and I really think it'll take something very good to beat him. 3.05 Ascot - 1pt win Havana Cooler @ 18/1 (Bet365) I liked this horse last season and always got a run for my money. Has form tied in with the smart Pether's Moon and possibly would have beaten that one twice from two starts with a stronger pace at Goodwood. He really wants a testing 1m4f and that's what he ought to get today on ground that will be fine. He ran over 1m6f at York when last seen and that was by no means a bad effort when not beaten far in third. However, possibly just got outstayed at the death and the step back in trip can suit. Still plenty of progress possible and although returning from a break I'm hopeful Luca Cumani wouldn't be running him if he didn't have him fit enough to do himself justice. That's factored into the price, however, as he wouldn't be 18/1 with a solid reappearance run under his belt and is worth chancing given the odds. 3.45 Ascot - 2pts win Dandino @ 10/1 (Bet365) I'm really quite sweet on the now Marco Botti-trained Dandino here. I do like Telescope and respect him but he's not a 9/4 shot in my eyes and the value looks with this globetrotting type. He hasn't been seen finishing 5th in the Melbourne Cup and usually gives his running over any sort of trip. A strongly-run 1m4f wouldn't be far off his optimum you'd think and he relishes fast ground. He's every bit a Group 2 horse and was only beaten a length in this race last year behind the ill-fated Thomas Chippendale. Although he hasn't been seen for a while he has a strong record when fresh - twice winning on his seasonal reappearance and only beaten a neck behind the smart Universal who had the run of the race on his first run last season. Conditions seem spot on and I do think 10/1 is huge if things pan out for him. 5.00 Ascot - 1pt e/w Rivellino @ 33/1 (BetVictor) Bit of a cavalry charge but at the prices I think Karl Burke's horse could go well here at a price. He's been impressive and progressive on the all-weather over the winter and he needs to be better to defy this mark back on turf but he seems a better horse now than when running respectably on turf last season. He ran okay in big handicaps like this but has gone up 14lbs in the ratings on the all-weather since and was in fine form when last seen in April. Had a little break to sharpen him up for this and a strong gallop over 6f seems like it'll be perfect for him. Has to prove his progression on the turf but if he's just generally a better horse he's a thriving individual who should enjoy conditions and at a tasty price I hope he gets the splits under William Buick who's a good jockey booking and for a yard in tremendous form of late. 5.35 Ascot - 2pts win Pique Sous @ 9/2 (BetVictor) A classy type over hurdles and in bumpers, he has to prove he'll stay this marathon trip but has finished his races off well over 2m in championship races at Cheltenham so despite holding plenty of speed he should see this out better than most. Although an excellent type on soft ground he was impressive when winning over 1m6f off 88 in September and his recent 5th of 12 in a decent handicap will have put him bang on for this. He's a really classy type which will get him a long way in a race with quite a few average horses trying their luck at a marathon distance and surely he'll be in the mix. Ryan Moore is booked for Willie Mullins so it's a formidable partnership who hold a 50% strike rate when teaming up and I don't think the trip should be too much of an issue with the ground as it is. Tiger Cliff is the obvious threat but I am pretty sweet on the unexposed Pique Sous and I think he'll take the beating.

[robertob]

Re: Royal Ascot 2014 ~ Day 5 Saturday 21st 14.30 Ascot: Dick Whittington @ 5/2 >William Hill I do really like this O'Brien horse as he impressed in two of his three career starts immensely and there is plenty of improvement to come from this lightly raced Rip Van Winkle son. On debut he was incredibly unlucky. He took a strong hold, yet travelled best of all in rear o the small field. He got short of room from 2 out, and was hampered when trying to squeeze through a gap 1 out, yet he finished strongly when finally in the clear. That day he finished a very close 2nd behind Capella Sansevero, who had the run of the race, and won subsequently a Listed race as well as finished strong 2nd in the Coventry Stakes earlier this week. He was a massive disappointment on his subsequent start at the Curragh when he finished only 2nd long odds-on. But he redeemed himself with a big performance at Naas last week when he appeared still to be green, he seemed to stumble around 2 out but made impressive headway and produced a lovely turn of foot to win easily in the end, despite hanging quite badly towards the rail in the closing stages. I believe this horse is more talented than Capella Sansevero and the step up to 7 should very much suit tomorrow. Only question is if he can handle the fast ground, as he never raced on quicker than good, but I don't see too many reasons why he shouldn't be as effective. 15.05 Ascot: Squire Osbaldeston E/W @ 25/1 Coral Squire Osbaldeston is a lovely progressive type, with not too many miles under the belt and some strong form to his name. I believe todays ground will be very much suit, much more than last time out at Chester. That day he settled in rear, which is always a difficult position to come from at Chester. Yet he travelled strongest, appearing on the bridle coming around the home turn, but got stuck in traffic and just found late a gap but couldn't produce a strong finish on the soft ground. The better ground will really help today and all his three forms this year are noteworthy. Main question evolves around the trip though. Will he stay? There is an awful lot of speed on his sire side, even though Mr Greeley daughter Laughing Lashes finished only one lengths beaten in the Irish Oaks three years ago. There is also plenty of stamina on the dam side, which means there is a good chance that he can get the trip. Usually he travelles strongly towards the end of the field, which probably should suit in this race where a fast pace is expected. He is capable of producing a nice turn of foot coming off a strong pace, so I think he has a fine chance to improve further and be bang there when it matters today. 15.45 Ascot: Dandino E/W @ 10/1 VC I think Hillstar has excellent chances to win this with conditions in favour, however I feel Dandino is a better bet given the odds. Dandino is an ultra consistent Group performer, who usually runs his race and also goes well fresh. I he is quite quick enough to win this is another questions, but I believe there is no real outstanding horse here in this field, and Dandino finished 2nd in this last season. It's hard to see him out of the top 3 if all is well with him, given the fact that he has his quick ground conditions and that over course and distance he had two starts, resulting in one win and the mentioned 2nd place last year. I believe in this field he has a better chance of winning than his price suggests and a near 80% chance toe be placed at least. 16.25 Ascot: Darwin E/W @ 16/1 Betfred Since Darwin moved to Ireland after starting his career in the US, he was rather disappointing, in terms of that he was thought to be a potential superstar. However I feel he didn't quite have things going to well over in rainy Ireland. He did well on his first two starts over 7f and a mile, both on quick ground, when beating Gordon Lord Byron quite easily in the Group 3 Minstrel Stakes back in July. He didn't follow up subsequently in another G3 over 1m, however that day the ground was against him. The official ground describtion is wrong in my mind, as I was there that day when it was raining allot the night before and the ground turned rather to something like good to yielding. That didn't suit over a trip that also seems to stretch him and he finished only 3rd. He returned to action last month over 6f, beaten a long way by Slade Power, but on soft to heavy! He gets his fast ground today, and I believe he can be competitive over the stiff Ascot 6f as he has loads of early speed and won over this trip in the US. I wouldn't be surprised to see him bouncing back today. 17.35 Ascot: Royal Irish Hussar E/W @ 16/1 VC I do like this former Aiden O'Brien runner since he won a maiden at Killarney in quite impressive fashion. Now with Nicky Henderson, he did quite well over hurdles as well, winning a Grade 2 during the winter. Back on the flat, over the extreme distance, there is enough stamina in his pedigree to believe that he will get the trip, particularly since the ground is the way he wants it. He needs quick ground to be seen at his best, on the flat at least, and for that reason he should go well.