raylin Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 Hi GuysI came across a system on Punters Lounge about 10 years ago which involved backing correct scores instead of the home team win market. For instance if you backed Arsenal last Tuesday £10 at 1.25 your return would be £12.50, 3-0 would have paid out 1.76 By backing1-0,2-0,3-0,2-1,3-1 in the correct score you can more than double or even treble the odds My strategy is to find home teams whose odds are between 1.25 and 1.5. The betfair marketmust be live and plenty of liquidity in the correct score market Teams like Liverpool will be not considered as they score goals for fun and also leak goalsBets will be placed on Betfair using£2 and possible a £2 bet on the over 4.5 market in play. This bet will be place as keep bet in play at 6.0 so if no goals are scored in the first 15 -20 minutes the bet should be taken and that will give a break even bet if the home team wins and score is anything over 4.5 goals so 3-2 will be covered but not 4-0If the bet wins then I will use the winnings for the second leg of the double, possibly later the same day or the following dayArsenal fit the criteria for the first bet I have placed bets in the market already some of thebets haven't been matched hoping that these will be taken by SundayCorrect score all bets £2 1-0 11.0 2-0 8.0 2-1 11.0 3-0 9.6 3-1 12.0 A keep bet as been place in the over 4.5 market for £2 at 6.0 odds at the moment are 4.2 which should be taken if no goals are scored in the first 10 15 minutes The average odds are 1.95 so the double will pay on average 3.50 or a maximum of 4.9 minimum of 2.4 if you take the maximum stake of £12 into consideration Although the end of the season is upon us this strategy might useful for the world cup Starting bank of 200 will be used and not more than 12 points will be placed on the 1st leg of the double ie £10 for the correct score market and maybe £2 in running in the over 4.5 market Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted May 3, 2014 Author Share Posted May 3, 2014 Re: Time delay correct score double system Ok I found a bet this morning that fits the criteria so Arsenal will have the stakes adjusted if the 1st selection is a winner Leicester v Doncaster £2 on 1-0 10.0 £2.5 2-0 9.6 £2.5 2-1 9.6 £2 3-0 14.0 £2 3-1 13.5 Odds range are from 1.7 to 2.5 The only rules in this method are 1. Odds must be between 1.25 and 1.5 2. The average profit should be above 2.0 in the correct score market 3 The over 4.5 inplay keep bet is used as a cover in case there a goal festival in the second half and only used at my discretion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 3, 2014 Share Posted May 3, 2014 Re: Time delay correct score double system Yes I remember this strategy, good luck with your version! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted May 3, 2014 Author Share Posted May 3, 2014 Re: Time delay correct score double system Please note post edited before Arsenal game Ok Leicester won 1-0 winnings £13.30 stake was £11 so odds of 2.2 as opposed to 1.5 Will have to adjust stake of Arsenal game £24.30 total stake divide by 5 =£4.86 I haven't worked out the odds of the double but I would say it will be at least 3.0 instead of just under evens if the match odds double had been taken Sorry guys have edited post. No value if over 4.5 goals is covered at 5.0. Cover over 4.5 with £2 at an inplay keep bet at 11.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted May 4, 2014 Author Share Posted May 4, 2014 Re: Time delay correct score double system Leicester Arsenal double successful . I only managed to get odds of 10.5 on the 1-0 scoreline so profit on the correct score was £23.08 minus £2 on the 4.5 market at 11.0 . gives us £21.08 profit double which is roughly odds of 2.9 If my back bet in the over 4.5 market had been taken before the scoring of the 1st goal I would have layed Arsenal for £12 at 1.17 liability just under £2 Starting bank was £200 bank now £221 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted May 4, 2014 Author Share Posted May 4, 2014 Re: Time delay correct score double system Not part of the system but thought I would try a correct score single with Real Madrid 1-0 20.0 £1 2-0 10.5 £2 3-0 8.6 £3 2-1 15.0 £2 3-1 12.5 £2 Keep bet any unquoted at 3.0 £5 If keep bet is taken I might lay Madrid Price at the moment 1.14 Will be keeping an eye on the game so might lay certain scores if the opportunity arises Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted May 4, 2014 Share Posted May 4, 2014 Re: Time delay correct score double system Please note post edited before Arsenal game Hello, Raylin. Can I ask you, please, not to edit posts that contain selections! If there is anything you need to add, please make a new post, rather than edit the old one. That's one of the Rules for posting betting systems, and its purpose is to protect yourself from odd questions. ;) Good luck with your system! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted May 4, 2014 Author Share Posted May 4, 2014 Re: Time delay correct score double system Real Madrid V Valencia game keep bet in correct score market at 3.0 taken £5 Layed Real Madrid £13 at 1.17 and then when opposition scored backed Real Madrid at 2.0 for £2 Real Madrid equalised. Layed Real Madrid at 1.47 for £5 Final result 2-2 Correct score Lost £15 Trading on match odds won £15.50 Profit approx £0.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted May 5, 2014 Author Share Posted May 5, 2014 Re: Time delay correct score double system 2nd double 1st SelectionReal Sosiedad v Granada Match odds 1.5 Reason for selection Real Sosiedad have won at home 3 out of their last 4 games Granada have lost 8 out of nine games away from home and drawn the other although this is about the odds rather than the form its nice to know why the odds fit into the criteria 1-0 9.6 £2.65 2-0 8.6 £2.65 2-1 9.6 £2.7 3-0 13.5 £2 3-1 13.5 £2 Total stake £12 Average odds 1.9 These bets haven't been taken yet but hope liquidity picks up later on in the day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted May 5, 2014 Author Share Posted May 5, 2014 Re: Time delay correct score double system All correct score bets taken in Sosiedad v Granada game Match odds increased to 1.58 but correct score odds giving over 2.0 except for 2-0 which is 1.85 Will place in play keep bet with correct score unquoted £1 at 11.0 insurance cover This will bring the odds of the 2-0 down to just below 1.8 if bet is taken and all other score lines taken just above evens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted May 6, 2014 Author Share Posted May 6, 2014 Re: Time delay correct score double system Sosiedad v Granada 1-1 so 1st part of the double down loss £13 Certainly the silly part of the season at the moment 2 red cards equaliser in the 90th minute Bank stands at £208 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted May 6, 2014 Author Share Posted May 6, 2014 Re: Time delay correct score double system 3rd double 1st leg Napoli v Cagliara 1-0 9.0 £2.5 2-0 8.8 £2.6 3-0 13.0 £2 2-1 9.6 £2.5 3-1 14.5 £2 Unquoted score in running bet keep at 11.0 £1 Odds paid at 1.9 and above If we can hit a strike rate of 50% with our doubles we will definitely make a profit Note A double at 1.9 should pay out at 3.6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted May 6, 2014 Author Share Posted May 6, 2014 Re: Time delay correct score double system Napoli won 3-0 profit 12.7 from a stake of 13.6 odds 1.92 £26.3 going on 2nd leg of double Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greety Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 Re: Time delay correct score double system Not much you can do I suppose, if the dog goes in front. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted May 7, 2014 Author Share Posted May 7, 2014 Re: Time delay correct score double system Hi greety I find there is more value in using the correct score doubles Would you rather back 2 teams both 1.35 giving double of 1.8 Or would you rather back a correct score double paying out between 3.0 and 4.0 My insurance cover can be a problem if there is an early goal in the 1st half but that is a risk I take I wasnt able to place a second part of the double tonight. My selection process uses a Greek site that gives probability for home Away and draws. I then compare this data with livescore.com to ensure that the previous games are not high scoring As I said previously we are at the silly part of the season so I don't expect fantastic results Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paparainbow Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Re: Time delay correct score double system you do understand that winning home equals to all correct scores where x>y... you take into account only 3-4 out of 10+ possible correct scores.. in the long run you will loose because cs has a significantly larger overound with respect to winner 1x2. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted May 10, 2014 Author Share Posted May 10, 2014 Re: Time delay correct score double system Hi paparainbow First point I want to make.I am covering 5 correct scores (not 3 or 4) and there is an insurance bet that normally triggers after 15 minutes in the game if no goals are scored. to cover any unquoted I know all about overroundiing but the Betfair market is very efficient with the correct score market book of 102% I always ask for a price and therefore I reckon in most cases my book value is 100% minus commission of course Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted May 11, 2014 Author Share Posted May 11, 2014 Re: Time delay correct score double system Looked at 4 games today to finish off the double Celtic,Man city,CSKA Moscow and Tottenham Decided to go for Tottenham match odds 1.53 on Betfair at the moment Just outside my betting range of 1.5 I have asked for prices 1-0 10.5 2-0 9.6 2-1 9.6 3-0 14.0 3-1 12.5 £26 going on 2nd leg So each correct score bet will be 26/5= £5.2 Depending on the score after 20 minutes I will place an insurance bet If Tottenham score no insurance If Aston Villa score back 3-2 for £2 If no score back any unquoted £2 at the going price which should be above 11.0 or back any unquoted any time in the match if price goes above 11.0 providing Tottenham are winning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted May 11, 2014 Author Share Posted May 11, 2014 Re: Time delay correct score double system Well that was close shave Tottenham scored 3 goals in the first half and the insurance bet only came in in the 88 minute Anyway a wins a win 2nd half of the double paid out at odds of 2.52 £26 at 2.52= £65.52 Bank now stands at £208+ £65.5=£273.5 Just want to point out my double would have won if I had chosen any of the 4 selections on short list Man city 2-0 Celtic 3-1 and CSK Moscow 2-0 Stats 2 winning doubles One losing double Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted May 12, 2014 Author Share Posted May 12, 2014 Re: Time delay correct score double system Strike rate 66% Yield 245% Strike rate = 66% Yield 73.5/30= 2.45*100 = 245% Will have to cover all stake with insurance bet otherwise strike rate will not be correct Next bet will be Arsenal v Hull at the weekend waiting for market to form Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greety Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Re: Time delay correct score double system Hi greety I find there is more value in using the correct score doubles Would you rather back 2 teams both 1.35 giving double of 1.8 Or would you rather back a correct score double paying out between 3.0 and 4.0 My insurance cover can be a problem if there is an early goal in the 1st half but that is a risk I take I wasnt able to place a second part of the double tonight. My selection process uses a Greek site that gives probability for home Away and draws. I then compare this data with livescore.com to ensure that the previous games are not high scoring As I said previously we are at the silly part of the season so I don't expect fantastic results Looking forward to giving this a try next season Raylin. Thanks for sharing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted May 12, 2014 Author Share Posted May 12, 2014 Re: Time delay correct score double system 3 bets stririke rate 66% yield 188% Hi Greety I will be using the system till the end of the world cup as long as there is enough liquidity My calculation for the yield is incorrect as my total stake for the 3 bets was £38.9 total winnings £73.5 so yield =188% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted May 12, 2014 Author Share Posted May 12, 2014 Re: Time delay correct score double system 3 bets stririke rate 66% yield 245% 4th double 1st leg Germany v Poland match odds 1.35 1-0 11.5 £2 not taken yet 2-0 8.0 £2.5 not taken yet 2-1 10.0 £2 taken 3-0 9.8 £2 taken 3-1 11.0 £2 taken In running keep bet at 6.0 £2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted May 13, 2014 Author Share Posted May 13, 2014 Re: Time delay correct score double system 3 bets stririke rate 66% yield 188% Germany v Poland All bets taken. Think this will be a low scoring game so decided to cancel in running keep bet on the any unquoted scoreline Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted May 13, 2014 Author Share Posted May 13, 2014 Re: Time delay correct score double system 3 bets stririke rate 66% yield 188% Germany v Poland score 0-0 1st leg of 4th double down strike rate 50% Yield 130% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted May 17, 2014 Author Share Posted May 17, 2014 Re: Time delay correct score double system 4 bets stririke rate 50% yield 130% 1st leg 5th double Arsenal v Hull bookie odds 1.45 1-0 6.5 £4 Ladbrokes 2-0 7.0 £3.5 888 3-0 12 £2 Bet Victor 2-1 9.5 £3 Bet Victor 3-1 15.0 £2 Coral Lowest odds 1.8 highest odds 2.1 Apparently only 7 goals in the last 5 cup finals so looks like a good bet Bank £261.0 - £14.5= £246.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted August 17, 2014 Author Share Posted August 17, 2014 Re: Time delay correct score double system 4 bets stririke rate 50% yield 130% New season new bank .Slightly different rules .wider spread on match odds and away teams also selected occasionally 100 points bank 1st selection Liverpool v Southampton Betfair match odds 1.43 Correct score odds between 1.68 and 2.5 Back 1-0 at 9.2 2-0 at 8.6 2-1 at 9.6 3-0 at 11.0 3-1 at 13.0 Stake 2 points on each selection If this selection is successful will look at Man city game for 2nd leg of double Man city match odds. 1.7 correct score odds between 2.0 and 3.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Re: Time delay correct score double system 4 bets stririke rate 50% yield 130% Will watch this with interest. Got a good system of selecting home winners within your selected odds range, so if this system could enhance that by effectively "improving" my odds then that'd be great. Cheers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted August 17, 2014 Author Share Posted August 17, 2014 Re: Time delay correct score double system 4 bets stririke rate 50% yield 130% Liverpool game ended 2-1 so profit just over 8 units Saint Ettiene v Reims Match odds 1.5 1-0 7.4 2-0 7.0 2-1 10.5 3-0 11.5 3-1 15.0 18 /5=3.6 units per bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted August 17, 2014 Author Share Posted August 17, 2014 Re: Time delay correct score double system 4 bets stririke rate 50% yield 130% Saint Ettiene won 3-1 so first double paid out 34.20 units after betfair commission Bank stands at 134.20 So taking correct score odds double at 3.42 as opposed to 1.43*1.5 = 2.145 match odds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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