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Aidymac

NFL > 2014-2015 Matches

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Re: NFL > 2014-2015 Matches Agree with the above. Seems quite a small line to me. Chiefs -7 Evens PP Kansas city chiefs are on fire and the Raiders are terrible. The crucial thing for me is that the Raiders have really struggled to stop the run all year. Averaging 129 yards against on the run all year, the Chiefs should be able to exploit that with Jamaal Charles starting to look like the Charles of last year. The chiefs don't have a great Run D either but Oakland have no weapons to really exploit that. Jamaal Charles over 100.5 yards 10/11 Ladbrokes For the reasons above. Expect him to have a big day. And an early one that jumps out for the weekend: Bengals +2.5 vs Texans 23/20 PP The bengals are very unpredictable but at thier core are quite a good team with a decent (ish) QB, some great options at WR and a RB who is coming of a high after a good last week. I like to watch the Texans but only because of JJ WATT who may well get a sack or 2, but fortunately for Bengals, no matter how elite JJ is he can't cover up the several other problems they have. I expect it to be a tight game with the Texans D keeping them in it, but the Bengals with points seems like a profitable play.

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Re: NFL > 2014-2015 Matches Will add Chiefs/Chiefs 4/6 B365 Another one to add that carries the same theme as above. I expect the Chiefs to get ahead early and like most of the prime time games this year for it not to be a close encounter.

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Re: NFL > 2014-2015 Matches I have taken the following (controversially) 5 pts Jamaal Charles rushing yards - Under 105.5 yards 1.95 Stan James Jamaal Charles exceeded 100 rushing yards in a game for the first time this season last week, the Raiders defense is 7th in rushing yards allowed on the year, but has allowed lots due to teams running out the clock at the end of games against the winless Oakland franchise, it would be no surprise to see the perfectly capable Knile Davis get his share of clock burning duties in the 4th quarter. The actual yards allowed per attempt by the unit is not all that bad at 3.8. Charles will probably have over 100 yards combined as the Raiders lack the sideline to sideline speed to defend against passes thrown to receivers in the back field but I think the line is a touch high on the rushing yards alone in this one.

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Re: NFL > 2014-2015 Matches I knew Darren mcfadden was bad... But that other guy they have got is pretty good. But hey. At least it should make the game close and good to watch. Also this is some of the worst play calling i have ever seen.

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Re: NFL > 2014-2015 Matches

I have taken the following (controversially) 5 pts Jamaal Charles rushing yards - Under 105.5 yards 1.95 Stan James :)
44-57-1 Total staked 475 pts Total returns 452.81 pts Profit -22.19 pts

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Re: NFL > 2014-2015 Matches Sunday TV previews: 4pts New England vs Detroit - Under 48pts 10/11 Betfred The Lions defence is real so I don’t expect New England to run away with this match but I’m not sure the Lions offense has been going well enough to automatically say they will stay within a score of the Patriots here. For me the better bet is for there to be under 48pts in the match. You have to go back to the opening week of the season for the last time a Lions match had this many points in it and I don’t see this one going over. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/detroit-lions--new-england-patriots-betting-points-may-be-at-a-premium-at-gillette-stadium 4pts Denver vs Miami - Under 48pts 10/11 Bet365 I think this is a match where the defences can stay on top. Denver’s defence won’t have liked their loss last week so I expect them to raise it here especially with doubts over key offensive personnel while Miami have nothing to lose so I expect their defence to go on the attack as well. Usually Denver matches are high scoring but I’m not sure this one will be and a points total of 48 could be a few too high. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/miami-dolphins--denver-broncos-betting-defences-can-stay-on-top-in-denver 4pts Dallas (-3) to beat New York Giants 4/5 Skybet The Giants look a right shambles at the minute and I expect a refreshed and rejuvenated Cowboys team to feast on them in this match. Dallas can run all over the Giants and they should be able to dominate them through the air too. There appears to be no confidence at all on this Giants offense apart from the exciting Odell Beckham Jr but he can’t win matches on his own so I’m with Dallas by more than a field goal in this one. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/dallas-cowboys--new-york-giants-betting-sunday-could-be-another-long-night-for-big-blue

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Re: NFL > 2014-2015 Matches Monday night preview: 4pts New Orleans (-3) to beat Baltimore 10/11 Bet365 Losing two at home on the trot is unheard of for New Orleans but a third one is almost impossible to think about. I don’t think they will lose here. Primetime games seem to bring out the best in Drew Brees and his side and I expect them to get the job done here against a Baltimore side who often flatter to deceive on the road. I think the Saints can win and cover a field goal. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/baltimore-ravens--new-orleans-saints-betting-saints-can-return-to-winning-ways-on-monday-night

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Re: NFL > 2014-2015 Matches 5 pts Detroit @ New England Under 48 pts 1.91 William Hill 3 pts Total Yards (Rushing and Receiving) Shane Vereen - Over 60.5 1.91 Ladbrokes Am completely with kev on this one, the Detroit Lions have had their struggles offensively even with the return of Calvin Johnson, who is likely to be covered by Darrelle Revis and taken out the game in this one, but they do have the best defensive unit in the league that should slow the Patriots unit down somewhat, they matchup well across the board apart from with Rob Gronkowski as there isnt a linebacker in the league can match up with that tight end causing an imbalance when they have to double team a tight end and it could also be a decent game for Shane Vereen as contrary to last week where Jonas Grey was a matchup nightmare for the Colts, the running back getting outside the tackles and also a receiving back is where the Lions defense can have some problems. 5 pts Seattle Seahawks (-7) to beat Arizona Cardinals 1.91 Stan James This is a statement game for the champs and I fully expect them to play their best game of this underwhelming season, lets face it defeat here at home would be enough for them to be done for the year so with the season on the line against the division rival with the best record in the NFL look for an elevated level of play from this still talented defensive unit and the 13th man getting involved causing problems for the Cardinals offense. This is a spot play rather than a numbers play but it is hard for me to see this Seahawks team rolling over at home, the second game in Arizona in a few weeks could be a belter too. 9 pts San Diego Chargers (-5) to beat St Louis Rams 1.91 Skybet The Chargers started the season red hot , looking like one of the NFLs best teams and with Phillip Rivers playing at an elite, MVP level. Then the injuries struck and hit them hard in the trenches on both sides of the ball and the secondary, but, bar players such as the promising rookie Verrett who has been placed on the season ending IR, they are returning to health and I expect there to be an upturn in their form again now, especially with the lifeline that Oakland have given them on Thursday back into this playoff race. St Louis have picked up some excellent results lately including beating Denver last weekend, but I just get the sense that this team is nowhere near as strong on the road - particularly on grass as they will encounter at Qualcomm, as they are at home in the dome on an artificial surface where their front seven can use their speed to maximum effect, think this line should be around a touchdown so like the play getting a couple of free points

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Re: NFL > 2014-2015 Matches Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts - 1 pts Daniel Herron to score 3 or more touchdowns 26.00 bet365 This looks a game where the Colts could score an awful lot of points, and while I am hesitant to take a big two touchdown handicap at a short price, with the injury to Ahmad Bradshaw, there has been lots of talk of the Colts getting work to Daniel Herron, which could be particularly potent in a short yardage situation as Trent Richardson is difficult to trust as an alternative and all you need for this bet is a little bit of talent and a lot of opportunity. A far more worthwhile and entertaining punt than the -14 line.

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Re: NFL > 2014-2015 Matches Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants 6 pts Demarco Murray rushing yards Over 110.5 1.83 Paddy Power Murray leads the league in rushing yards and the Cowboys are riding him into the ground with reckless abandon as his contract is up at seasons end when they will undoubtedly cast him aside. New York has the highest rushing yards allowed per attempt in the league, this is an awful run defense and despite the high line it is fairly conceivable that Murray should achieve this.

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Re: NFL > 2014-2015 Matches

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants 6 pts Demarco Murray rushing yards Over 110.5 1.83 Paddy Power:)
5 pts Detroit @ New England Under 48 pts 1.91 William Hill:) 3 pts Total Yards (Rushing and Receiving) Shane Vereen - Over 60.5 1.91 Ladbrokes:( 60 yards :wall:puke 5 pts Seattle Seahawks (-7) to beat Arizona Cardinals 1.91 Stan James:) 9 pts San Diego Chargers (-5) to beat St Louis Rams 1.91 Skybet:( Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts - 1 pts Daniel Herron to score 3 or more touchdowns 26.00 >bet365:(
47-59-1 Total staked 504 pts Total returns 482.91 pts Profit -21.09 pts

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Re: NFL > 2014-2015 Matches 5 pts Baltimore Ravens (+3) to beat New Orleans Saints 1.91 Stan James I find it impossible to have any confidence in the Saints at the moment, their defense has been horrible and Drew Brees has not performed close to the levels you would expect from him on his past seasons performance. Baltimore looks to me to be one of the most undervalued and underrated teams in the NFL, they have viable receiving threats with Steve Smith and Torrey Smith, Joe Flacco on a good day is up there with the best at QB, but does lack consistency and the defense is young and appears hungry and talented, getting points I am happy to take the Ravens to inflict more pain on the struggling Saints.

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Re: NFL > 2014-2015 Matches Thanksgiving Day previews: 4pts Chicago (+7) to beat Detroit 10/11 Stan James Detroit’s defence was torn apart by New England at the weekend and Chicago have the receivers to do something similar in this match. The key to the Bears hopes will be how their defence performs but with Detroit really starting to struggle on offense that defence might not be tested as much as we may have expected. I would imagine Detroit will have enough to edge this but not by more than a touchdown. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/chicago-bears--detroit-lions-betting-chicago-can-stay-within-a-score-of-detroit 4pts Philadelphia to beat Dallas 7/5 William Hill I’m really looking forward to this match. This one will go a long way to deciding the NFC East so it is going to be competitive. Both offenses make big plays while both have defences capable of getting to the quarterback so we should see plenty of eye catching plays in this match. For me Philadelphia have looked good in every department this season and I fancy them to edge this one. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/philadelphia-eagles--dallas-cowboys-betting-eagles-can-take-a-giant-leap-to-division-title 4pts San Francisco vs Seattle - Under 40pts 10/11 William Hill This will be a battle of two top quality defences and I don’t expect a huge amount of points in this match. Neither offense are firing as we would expect them to which is likely to keep the point scoring to even more of a minimum and when you factor in how hard it will be for the losers to make the playoffs then we’re likely to see both sides putting it all on the line. That should keep the points below 40. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/seattle-seahawks--san-francisco-49ers-betting-point-scoring-can-be-hard-in-san-fran

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Re: NFL > 2014-2015 Matches

Thursday 27 November 2014 Home Away BPP
maximize.gif Detroit Lions v Chicago Bears (17:30 GMT) 1.35 3.75 100.74 %
maximize.gif Dallas Cowboys v Philadelphia Eagles (21:30 GMT) 1.65 2.56 99.67 %
Friday 28 November 2014 Home Away BPP
maximize.gif San Francisco 49ers v Seattle Seahawks (01:30 GMT) 1.93 2.04 100.83 %
Sunday 30 November 2014 Home Away BPP
maximize.gif Baltimore Ravens v San Diego Chargers (18:00 GMT) 1.38 3.15 104.21 %
maximize.gif Buffalo Bills v Cleveland Browns (18:00 GMT) 1.71 2.25 102.92 %
maximize.gif Houston Texans v Tennessee Titans (18:00 GMT) 1.38 3.4 101.88 %
maximize.gif Indianapolis Colts v Washington Redskins (18:00 GMT) 1.21 5.2 101.88 %
maximize.gif Jacksonville Jaguars v New York Giants (18:00 GMT) 2.26 1.76 101.07 %
maximize.gif Minnesota Vikings v Carolina Panthers (18:00 GMT) 1.72 2.28 102.00 %
maximize.gif Pittsburgh Steelers v New Orleans Saints (18:00 GMT) 1.6 2.53 102.03 %
maximize.gif St. Louis Rams v Oakland Raiders (18:00 GMT) 1.33 3.75 101.69 %
maximize.gif Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Cincinnati Bengals (18:00 GMT) 2.8 1.53 101.07 %
maximize.gif Atlanta Falcons v Arizona Cardinals (21:05 GMT) 2.22 1.76 101.57 %
maximize.gif Green Bay Packers v New England Patriots (21:25 GMT) 1.64 2.55 100.19 %
Monday 1 December 2014 Home Away BPP
maximize.gif Kansas City Chiefs v Denver Broncos (01:30 GMT) 2.06 1.89 101.45 %
Tuesday 2 December 2014 Home Away BPP
maximize.gif New York Jets v Miami Dolphins (01:30 GMT) 3.05 1.4 104.22 %

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Re: NFL > 2014-2015 Matches Seahawks to win 21/20 Bet365 I fancy the seahawks here. Despite them being nowhere near as dominant as last year especially on the defensive side, but the 49ers have struggled in their last 2 games and are not looking good right now. Eli Manning threw 5 picks vs the 49ers and they were only just able to scrape the victory. This was followed up by them narrowly beating the terrible Redskins last week. I think that the seahawks will be able to move the ball well with a beast mode and thanks to Russel Wilsons elite scrambling ability, and even though the seahawks defence isn't what it was it should be able to pressure Kap into doing more of what he has been doing all season which hasn't been great. Lynch to score and Seahawks to win 11/4 WH Similar to the above. Lynch is an enormous part of the seahawks offence and i would be surprised to not see him score a TD in this game. Eagles to beat the cowboys 6/4 B365 Taking Mark Sanchez to beat a good team... This is probably crazy, but the Cowboys haven't hit the heights that they were at in the first half of the season and although had a decent comeback victory against the struggling Giants may find the Eagles to be a lot tougher. If the eagles can stop demarco Murray then they can take away the main focal point of that offense. I am expecting a fairly highscoring game but the Eagles have thier own offensive weapons and can cause the Cowboys D big problems.

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Re: NFL > 2014-2015 Matches Happy Thanksgiving Day. been to a funeral today and lacking time so will have to be brief folks Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions 7 pts Under 47.5 pts 1.91 William Hill 5 pts Detroit (-7) to beat Chicago 1.95 Betway The Detroit Lions have one of the leagues best defensive units and Chicago, winners of two straight have been awful and completely out of sorts against anything resembling a competent defensive unit this season, they were abcolutely gifted the last two games against Tampa and Minnesota despite trying to give those games away. Detroit have been struggling offensively and while the Chicago defense is a mess, I still dont think they are clicking as a unit and Matthew Stafford remains an overrated QB in the league. Despite all this I find it difficult to imagine anything other than a Detroit win in a low scoring game in what is likely to be the worst of three games to start us off 5 pts Dallas Cowboys (-3) to beat Philadelphia Eagles 1.85 BetVictor I struggle to find the words to describe the Cowboys, this is the team I was most wrong about pre season, the offense has played well and the defense defies all logic and while it has moved towards the direction it should be residing in, it is still far from the atrocity I imagined before we began with the games this season. Philadelphia continue to be fraudulent and flattered by defensive touchdowns, the team has had offensive line troubles all season due to various injuries and suspensions and the run game has never got going and now we have Mark Sanchez at QB, If Romo takes care of the football then I cannot see the Eagles going into Jerrys House and winning today, wouldnt be comfortable taking more than 3 points but at this line Dallas are the play I want to play Seattle, but the brutality of that game with Arizona on Sunday concerns me as with short rest and a road trip it could take its toll, I may come back later with a play on it

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Re: NFL > 2014-2015 Matches Sunday TV previews: 4pts L.Bell Over 85.5 rushing yards 10/11 Ladbrokes Running backs have enjoyed life against this Saints defence in recent times and Le’Veon Bell went into this round of matches as the second best running back in the league this season in terms of yards on the ground so I would expect him to feast on the banquet here too. Bell makes good cuts and can run through the middle and out wide so 86 yards should be well within his range. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/new-orleans-saints--pittsburgh-steelers-betting-le-veon-bell-can-run-all-over-the-saints 4pts E.Lacy Over 65.5 rushing yards 10/11 Skybet New England have been in fine form recently but they’ve not been able to stop a running back all season so I like the look of Eddie Lacy’s rushing yards total here. Lacy is a big running back who is very hard to bring down and gets a lot of yards after impact so I would expect him to be a large part of the Packers offense in this game and I believe he can smash through a 65.5 yard line. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/new-england-patriots--green-bay-packers-betting-eddie-lacy-can-produce-good-yardage 4pts Kansas City vs Denver - Under 49.5pts 10/11 Stan James The Chiefs are the sort of side that the Broncos can struggle against. They have a defence which can slow down this juggernaut offense and they have the running game to keep the Denver offense off the field, much like San Diego had last year when they turned the Broncos over. I’m not completely convinced the Chiefs will hold it together to win but given that they played in the Thursday night they should be fresh enough to be competitive so I’ll take under 49.5pts in this match. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/denver-broncos--kansas-city-chiefs-betting-point-scoring-may-be-harder-than-usual-at-arrowhead

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Re: NFL > 2014-2015 Matches A lot i like this week, which is a worry. I am going to start by breaking NFL betting rule 1.1 Never bet a short road favourite. I am going to do it twice. 9 pts New York Giants (-2.5) to beat Jacksonville Jaguars 1.83 Coral This season has been a massive disappointment for the Giants, but there is no way I think they have sunk so far aa to be favoured less than a field goal against the Jags. Rashad Jennings is healthy again giving them a viable running threat and Odell Beckham Jr continues to emerge with "the catch" just bring him wider public attention and despite his flaws Eli Manning is a 2 time Superbowl champion. Jacksonville continue to build and while I think Blake Bortles has a decent future in the league, I am yet to be convinced by Denard Robinson and this matchup will likely come down to the QB that makes the least mistakes. I am (possibly stupidly) willing to bet that is Eli Manning rather than the rookie Bortles. 12 pts Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) to beat Atlanta Falcons 1.95 BetVictor I wonder aloud what this line would have been had the Seahawls not been blown out by Seattle last week? That was a game that Seattle had to have, Arizona not so much and a couple of plags end fractionally different and its close at half time rather than the blowout it was and maybe a different result? Either way this Cardinals team has more talent than the Falcons on offense at all positions except maybe QB,though the Falcons lack of protection of Ryan should negate that advantage, the Cardinals are a better defense and have a vastly superior coach. Even with the advantage of their home field it is hard to see Atlanta winning, after all they play in the worst division in football in the NFC South and all 4 of their wins have been against divisional opponents, this team is a bottom feeder and the Cards look value. 4 pts Oakland Raiders (+7) to beat St Louis Rams 1.83 BetFred The Rams have recorded some nice wins against good teams this year and that has driven this line to a place that I think is crazy. I couldnt have this Rams team favoured by 7 points against anybody, they are just too inconsistent. Oakland have played hard despite their record and shown an ability in lots of games to hang around with their opponenta and I will take the points here with the assumption they will do so again. 5 pts Washington Indigenous persons(+10) to beat Indianapolis Colts 1.83 Coral 8 pts Alfred Morris over 85.5 rushing yards 1.91 Skybet I dont think that the Colts can stop Alfred Morris, he is a hard runner similar to Jonas Gray who caused them all sorts of headaches when they faced New England two weeks ago. If Washington feed the rock to Morris and dont ask Colt McCoy to do too much then the defense will have problems getting off the field which will open the door for Washington to certainly cover the line and potentially take advantage of a tired defense in the 4th quarter and win the game outright. I am not willing to play the money line because Andrew Luck is the comeback king, there is likely points in this game and I think 10 is too much, take the points. 6 pts New England Patriots (+3) to beat Green Bay Packers 2.00 BetVictor The Patriots are the best team in the NFL, they lead the Packers marginally in almost every offensive and defensive category, they have had a harder schedule and stronger wins than the Packers. Green Bay are the best team in the NFC, but New England with a 3 pt start is a gift that usually delivers and I will systematically take the Pats with the points without a second thought. 5 pts Kansas City Chiefs to beat Denver Broncos 2.00 bet365 Awful spot for the Broncos here. The Chiefs got caught in the absolute textbook trap game sandwiched between two huge matchuos when they lost to the Raiders just over a week ago. That has given them extra time to both stew, but also to plan for a Broncos team that is banged up at both the offensive line and the receiving positions. We all saw what the Chiefs did at home to the Patriots in primetime earlier this season and Arrowhead for a night game is a fearsome spectacle for any team and I think the Broncos will lose here and the division is up for grabs then. Will have a look at a few more props and make a final decision on the browns and bills game so may be back later

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Re: NFL > 2014-2015 Matches 10 pts Jamaal Charles Over 80.5 rushing yards 1.95 Stan James Pretty much following on from the prediction of the Chiefs beating the Broncos the plan has to be to hand the ball to Charles early and often to sustain long and time consuming drives to keep Manning off the field. He averages around 5 yards per carry and 16 carries is not a workload that its difficult to foresee here and Jammal Charles is capable of breaking a big run at any moment.

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Re: NFL > 2014-2015 Matches Monday preview: 4pts Miami (-6.5) to beat New York Jets 10/11 Ladbrokes With all the problems the Jets have at quarterback it is hard to see how Miami don’t get back to winning ways here. They should really be able to get after Geno Smith and it would be no surprise if he ends up getting benched at some point. The Miami offense has really started delivering the goods recently and I think they can deliver their side to a win by at least a touchdown. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/miami-dolphins--new-york-jets-betting-dolphins-can-feed-on-weak-jets-offense

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Re: NFL > 2014-2015 Matches

Breaking what rules? I don't think I've ever taken an anti-tip before but I went with the Broncos and it worked so thanks - if that's the right word. What did you mean at the start of your post when you said the fact you fancied a lot of bets was 'a worry?' I think where we have an advantage over bookmakers is they choose to offer odds on every game whereas we can be more selective and only have to play the markets where we think there is value. If you're getting involved in loads of games you're simply pushing the advantage back in their favour. Perhaps be much more selective in future and look for that one great bet instead of lots of little ones?
You clearly havent read the original post then and just looked at the tips so if you dont read what people have written you dont really have a position from which to criticise so i am not going to defend my position further to you (not that i actually need to in the first place)

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