stewartd14 Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 [TABLE=class: odds allOdds] [TR] [TH][TABLE=class: SortLinks] [TR] [TD=class: sortLinkRight][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: AO0] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor] Miss France[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]10.5[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]8[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]8[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]8[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]10[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]10[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]8[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B U]11[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]8[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]6[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]9[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B U]11[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]8[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]8[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]9[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O X]11[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B X]12.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: AO1] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor] My Titania[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]8.4[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]9[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]9[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]9[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]9[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]10[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]8[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]9[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]9[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B D]11[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]9[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]10[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]9[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]9[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]9[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O X]8.8[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O X]9.4[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: AO0] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor] Rizeena[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]4.2[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]5[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]5[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]5[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]5.5[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B D]11[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]5[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]6.5[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O X]4.4[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O X]4.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: AO1] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor] Ihtimal[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]10[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]11[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]9[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]10[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]11[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]10[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]9[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]9[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]10[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B D]13[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]11[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]11[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]9[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]9[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]9[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O X]10.5[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O X]12[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: AO0] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor] Tapestry[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B D]14.5[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]7[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]7[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]6.5[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]8[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]8[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]9[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]7[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]8[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]8[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]8[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]11[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]6[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]7[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]9[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O X]15.5[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B X]17.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: AO1] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor] Lucky Kristale[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]9[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]10[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]11[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]10[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]9[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]10[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]11[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]11[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]10[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B]15[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]9[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]10[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]10[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]11[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]9[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O X]9.4[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O X]11[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: AO0] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor] Amazing Maria[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]14[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]15[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]15[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]15[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]13[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B]17[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]15[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]15[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]15[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]15[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]15[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]13[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]15[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]15[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]15[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O X]15[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B X]17[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: AO1] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor] Kiyoshi[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B D]18[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]17[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]17[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]17[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]17[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]15[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]17[/TD] 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ChartFormButtons][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor] Night Song[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B]26[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: AO0] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor] Sandiva[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]20[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B]26[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B U]26[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B U]26[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]21[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]21[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]21[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]21[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]15[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]21[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B]26[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B]26[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B]26[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B U]26[/TD] 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U]21[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]21[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]21[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]21[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]26[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]21[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]21[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]26[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O X]37[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B X]40[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: AO1] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor] Hiking[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B]34[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: AO0] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor] Joyeuse[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]21[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]21[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]26[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]21[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]21[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]26[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]17[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]26[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]26[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B U]34[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]21[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]26[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]21[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]26[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]21[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O X]23[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O X]28[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: AO1] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor] Mabre Rose[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B]34[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: AO0] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor] Lightning Thunder[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B D]39[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]26[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]34[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]34[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]26[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]26[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]26[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]34[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]34[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]26[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]34[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]34[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]34[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]34[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O X]45[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B X D]48[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: AO1] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor] Bracelet[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]12[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]13[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]13[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]10[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]11[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]12[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]9[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]15[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B]41[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]13[/TD] 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cellOdd O]41[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]41[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]41[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]51[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]41[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]41[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]41[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]51[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]41[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]41[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O X D]56[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B X]110[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: AO1] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor] Palace[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B U]56[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]34[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]34[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]21[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]34[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]34[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]41[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]34[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]34[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]26[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]41[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]34[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]41[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O X U]66[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B X]80[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: AO0] [TD=class: 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[TD=class: cellOdd O]51[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]51[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]51[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]51[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O D]41[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]51[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O X U]335[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B X U]650[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: AO1] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor] Wonderfully[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B U]265[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]51[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]51[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]51[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]34[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]41[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]41[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]51[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd][/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]51[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]51[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]51[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]41[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O U]51[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O]41[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd O X U]335[/TD] [TD=class: cellOdd B X]510[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: place] [TD=class: text, colspan: 2]Place terms (Highlight E/W)[/TD] [TD=class: terms][/TD] [TD=class: terms]3 1/4[/TD] [TD=class: terms]3 1/4[/TD] [TD=class: terms]3 1/4[/TD] [TD=class: terms][/TD] [TD=class: terms]3 1/4[/TD] [TD=class: terms]3 1/4[/TD] [TD=class: terms][/TD] [TD=class: terms]3 1/4[/TD] [TD=class: terms]3 1/4[/TD] [TD=class: terms][/TD] [TD=class: terms][/TD] [TD=class: terms][/TD] [TD=class: terms]3 1/4[/TD] [TD=class: terms][/TD] [TD=class: terms][/TD] [TD=class: terms][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted April 14, 2014 Author Share Posted April 14, 2014 Re: 1000 & 2000 Guineas 2014 1000 Guineas Preview In the fillies version of the classic, the market certainly suggests the race is going to be a very closely fought affair with most bookmakers going 6/1 the field. To find the value bets here, our first port of call is to identify the best 2 year old speed figures recorded by the filles of last year. [TABLE=width: 596] [TR] [TD]Date [/TD] [TD]Distance (f) [/TD] [TD]Horse [/TD] [TD]Speed Rating [/TD] [TD]Sire AWD (f) [/TD] [TD]Dam AWD (f) [/TD] [TD]Average [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]01-Sep-2013 [/TD] [TD]7 [/TD] [TD]Rizeena [/TD] [TD]112 [/TD] [TD]8.00 [/TD] [TD]7.20 [/TD] [TD]7.6 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]19-Jun-2013 [/TD] [TD]5 [/TD] [TD]Rizeena [/TD] [TD]111 [/TD] [TD]8.00 [/TD] [TD]7.20 [/TD] [TD]7.6 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]01-Sep-2013 [/TD] [TD]7 [/TD] [TD]Tapestry [/TD] [TD]111 [/TD] [TD]11.20 [/TD] [TD]9.20 [/TD] [TD]10.2 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]27-Sep-2013 [/TD] [TD]7 [/TD] [TD]Miss France [/TD] [TD]111 [/TD] [TD]9.30 [/TD] [TD]8.60 [/TD] [TD]8.95 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]27-Sep-2013 [/TD] [TD]7 [/TD] [TD]Lightning Thunder [/TD] [TD]111 [/TD] [TD]7.00 [/TD] [TD]12.90 [/TD] [TD]9.95 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]20-Jun-2013 [/TD] [TD]5 [/TD] [TD]Wind Fire [/TD] [TD]110 [/TD] [TD]8.70 [/TD] [TD]10.60 [/TD] [TD]9.65 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]01-Sep-2013 [/TD] [TD]7 [/TD] [TD]Kiyoshi [/TD] [TD]108 [/TD] [TD]9.20 [/TD] [TD]10.00 [/TD] [TD]9.6 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]19-Jun-2013 [/TD] [TD]5 [/TD] [TD]Sweet Emma Rose [/TD] [TD]107 [/TD] [TD]8.50 [/TD] [TD]9.30 [/TD] [TD]8.9 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]18-Jul-2013 [/TD] [TD]7 [/TD] [TD]Wonderfully [/TD] [TD]107 [/TD] [TD]11.20 [/TD] [TD]8.00 [/TD] [TD]9.6 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]18-Jul-2013 [/TD] [TD]7 [/TD] [TD]Perhaps [/TD] [TD]106 [/TD] [TD]11.20 [/TD] [TD]9.00 [/TD] [TD]10.1 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Stamina Index To assess the stamina required to win this race, I have taken the last 10 winners of the race and considered the average winning distance of both the sire and the dam’s offspring. Historically, the lowest average to take the prize was 6.8f last year, although this was very much an exception to the rule (the next lowest being 7.8f). The average over the last 10 years, incidentally, is 8.8f, suggesting you need to stay the mile well to come out on top. Looking at that stat, it makes you worry whether Rizeena really takes the best chance into the race. It looks as if 1 mile might be her limit, and I don’t think she quite got home over the mile in her final run of last season. Likely Winner’s Taking the leading contender’s one by one: Tapestry looks more than capable of reversing the form with Rizeena over the mile given they were only separated by ¾ length at The Curragh, and Tapestry looks certain to improve for the step up in trip. However, I do feel that Tapestry will be even better over further, and the mile in the Guineas might just be a touch on the sharp side. Only one horse has won the race in the last 10 years with a stamina average of over 10f, and that was Blue Bunting back in 2011 who certainly took me by surprise last year. Miss France really took the eye when she beat Lightning Thunder at Newmarket and would be my main pick for this race. She hasn’t quite done it in France, but she seemed to love the firm ground when she came across for her one run in England and she travelled like a dream. She showed a bit of greenness in the closing stages to give Lightning Thunder a bump but won that a shade cosily and was probably value for a little bit more than her winning distance suggests. Her breeding is perfect for this, and she would have to be a strong fancy to give the French their first win in this since Special Duty back in 2010. Lightning Thunder has to also be considered if Miss France is chosen as the main bet. Although beaten a shade cosily by the Andre Fabre trained winner, she hung all the way across the track and looked extremely green. This is a horse who will improve even more than Miss France for the step up in trip (stamina avg of 9.95f) and if she manages to get first run she might be difficult to peg back. The big worry is that, like Tapestry, her stamina average is very high and would be one of the highest to take this race in recent years. The main appeal behind this runner is her price tag of 33/1 which looks massive next to the tag of 6/1 on Miss France. I have confidence that Olly Stevens can get this filly ready for the race, and if he can, she can give us a live run for our money at a very big price. Wind Fire put in a very good run at Royal Ascot back in June behind No Nay Never and Coach House. She ran best of the horses who were held up that day and it looked a very promising run. However, I’m always very dubious about large speed figures achieved at Ascot and the fact Wind Fire went on to struggle afterwards suggests the figure wasn’t wholly accurate of her ability. There is an argument, however, that she was feeling the effects of a long 2 year old season and she would have to be looked at again if she lined up at 66/1 on the day. As it stands, however, she looks to have a tricky task on her hands. Kiyoshi is another filly who looked a star last year. Having struggled on debut, she quickly picked up a nice Maiden win at Goodwood and followed that up with a win at Ascot, beating Joyeuse (result yesterday). She then ran a good third behind Rizeena and Tapestry and wasn’t beaten far in a muddling race. Like Tapestry, you fancy Kiyoshi to improve for the step up in trip more than Rizeena and she may be a bet to reverse the form. Getting beat by Vorda certainly wasn’t a bad run on her final race at Newmarket, but I just feel she lacks the X Factor to go and take the prize here. Sweet Emma Rose and Perhaps won’t be running in the Guineas. So that leaves us with Wonderfully for Aiden O Brien. This certainly isn’t his first string for the race, but I don’t think you can discount this horse. She started off her career with a decent performance on debut getting up in the final strides over 6f. She then never got into the race at Ascot, and looked a horse with ability but not the pace to compete over the 6f trip. She then stepped up to 7f, and couldn’t be caught as Joseph O Brien had her on the lead from wire to wire. She then went to the Curragh and was desperately unlucky behind Rizeena, Tapestry and Kiyoshi. She was beaten when hampered that day but would certainly have finished closer, and has preferential breeding to both Rizeena and Tapestry when it comes to winning the Guineas. Her need for a longer trip was then re-inforced when she stepped up to a mile at Newmarket on her final run. There was no real gallop on and Wonderfully was outpaced as they sprinted to the line. She did well to eventually stay on for 4th. While I do think this horse will be better over slightly further, they should go a decent pace in the Guineas which should suit unlike the crawl they went at Newmarket (suiting Rizeena and Chriselliam who are both bred more for speed than stamina). If she can find herself running on late, I am confident she should be there or thereabouts and the current price of 430.0 on Betfair is very generous if she goes for the race. Advice 2 PTS WIN MISS FRANCE @ 10/1 Paddy Power .5 PT E/W LIGHTNING THUNDER @ 33/1 Ladbrokes 0.25 PT E/W WONDERFULLY @ 50/1 Bet 365 0.25 PT WIN WONDERFULLY @ 430.0 Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted April 14, 2014 Author Share Posted April 14, 2014 Re: 1000 & 2000 Guineas 2014 Erm, apologies - could a mod try and sort the odds posting in the opening post (and perhaps remind me why it hasn't worked too ?!) Thanks :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
puncho Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Re: 1000 & 2000 Guineas 2014 not even a mention for LUCKY KRISTAL who beat RIZEENA on merit at Newmarket prior to a comfortable LOWTHER win giving away the 3lb GP.2 penalty? Moreover she is reported in tip top shape by her handler. Admittedly there is a question mark concerning her ability to get a mile Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toast Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Re: 1000 & 2000 Guineas 2014 Will proberley wait until the day for my bet, but, ATM, Miss France stands out by a mile. Beautifully bred by 2 group 1 winners, will be proberley make a better 3yo like her parents did. Would have to disagree with the OP on breeding side, as the dam line screams stamina to me. Wouldnt worry too much about her debut this season, as Fabre very rarely has 1 fully tuned 1st time out, so a massive improvement is on the cards, just as it was from her 2yo debut. Fabre treats trial races as it says on the tin. Remember Zafonic losing the Djebel, before routing a decent guineas field a few weeks later. Looking long term, not many bookies are quoting her for the oaks, so possibly the French equivalent is favoured, followed by possibly Vermeilles then Arc for which she is 25/1. A very exciting filly to follow this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertob Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Re: 1000 & 2000 Guineas 2014 Looking forward to Guineas weekend. Have two Ante-Post bets on War Command and Miss France. Latter one was pretty disappointing on her seasonal reappearance and not sure what to make of it. Think the 1.000 Guineas looks rather weak, so I still have hope that she improves enough from this outing to show the brilliance she showed last year. Happy to see War Command confirmed for the Guineas. He is the far better prospect for this race than Australia in my mind. I look a bit stupid with my Ante-post bet now since you can get much bigger at the moment than the 8/1 I got month ago. But still think that is too big. He has all the right form in the book, he looked nice at the Curragh in March too and I expect a big performance. For me he is still the horse to beat - despite Kingman's impressive recent performance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toast Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Re: 1000 & 2000 Guineas 2014 Charm Spirit 25/1 ew.....2000 guineas. French horses are always worth a 2nd look when travelling across the channel, especially those from a top stable with a top jockey on board. More so those that won the most important French guineas trial, Le Prix Djebel. The most interesting thing for me is the trainer selecting the Newmarket version which suggests 1 of 2 things. There is at least 1 better miler in France or the trainer knows that the front 3 in the market are beatable. Hes ran 4 times upto now, winning twice over 7f and a 2l beating in the Jean Luc Lagardare ( French Dewhurst) and 2nd on his debut over a mile. Looking at his breeding, he did well to win the Djebel, with 10f looking his ideal distance, so the step back up in trip is advantageous. Looking at past Djebel results, it's quite a poor guide for the French 2000, whereas, Newmarket fares an awful lot better. From 1970, Djebel winners going to hq have finished,34421123015012. 9/14 have finished in the 1st 3, 72%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 Re: 1000 & 2000 Guineas 2014 sorry haven't been able to post much .............started new job and workin all hours godsend cos my partners out of work temporarily ay the mo ...........but rated the guineas and going to have a good bash ........... 2000 guineas the grey Gatsby 99.63 charm spirit 99.33 kingman 98.88 very interesting race with Australia and kingman unknown quantitys and could be anything on the day but at the prices im far more interested in charm spirit and the grey Gatsby charm spirit had a nice run in france recently ....first time out that was a tough race and horse battled well to get head in front .....stays 8f and time was very quick so at 25/1 looks very good value against these short price favs .....especially e.w /............. same andb better can be said about the grey Gatsby .who probably needed the run first time up but ran an absoloute cracker against toormore considering and in defeat ran a very fast time on a par with recent guineas winner and toormoor is rated 122!!!.............so no shame there !!!.............what price bookies offering ?.................66/1 !!!!!...(150/1 quotes on betfair ) .(faints ) ...........I don't care if he finishes last that's amazing value !!!!!!............id back that any day of the week charm spirit 2pt e.w 25/1 generally the grey Gatsby 1pt e.w 66/1 betvic ( im also going to try get 150/1 ...1pt win and place on betfair when market comes back ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 Re: 1000 & 2000 Guineas 2014 1000 guineas my titania 99.30 rizeena 99.20 tapestry 99.19 rizeena is a hot horse in the betting for this but 7/2 against the 8/1 available on the other two just seems poor value because really there is nothing between them on clock .........and given o briens record in big races it will be no surprise to see tapestry post a much better time now so looks good value and my titania looked a very very progressive horse last season improving rapidly on the clock and should stay 8f and if fit and ready would be no surprise to see a very good horse now tapestry 2pts e.w 8/1 generally my titania 2pts e.w 8/1 generally Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toast Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 Re: 1000 & 2000 Guineas 2014 My Titiana is a non runner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpiritOfLisbon Posted May 4, 2014 Share Posted May 4, 2014 Re: 1000 & 2000 Guineas 2014 1000 Guineas Preview In the fillies version of the classic, the market certainly suggests the race is going to be a very closely fought affair with most bookmakers going 6/1 the field. To find the value bets here, our first port of call is to identify the best 2 year old speed figures recorded by the filles of last year. [TABLE=width: 596] [TR] [TD]Date[/TD] [TD]Distance (f)[/TD] [TD]Horse[/TD] [TD]Speed Rating[/TD] [TD]Sire AWD (f)[/TD] [TD]Dam AWD (f)[/TD] [TD]Average[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]01-Sep-2013 [/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Rizeena[/TD] [TD]112[/TD] [TD]8.00[/TD] [TD]7.20[/TD] [TD]7.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]19-Jun-2013 [/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]Rizeena[/TD] [TD]111[/TD] [TD]8.00[/TD] [TD]7.20[/TD] [TD]7.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]01-Sep-2013 [/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Tapestry[/TD] [TD]111[/TD] [TD]11.20[/TD] [TD]9.20[/TD] [TD]10.2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]27-Sep-2013 [/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Miss France[/TD] [TD]111[/TD] [TD]9.30[/TD] [TD]8.60[/TD] [TD]8.95[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]27-Sep-2013 [/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Lightning Thunder[/TD] [TD]111[/TD] [TD]7.00[/TD] [TD]12.90[/TD] [TD]9.95[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]20-Jun-2013 [/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]Wind Fire[/TD] [TD]110[/TD] [TD]8.70[/TD] [TD]10.60[/TD] [TD]9.65[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]01-Sep-2013 [/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Kiyoshi[/TD] [TD]108[/TD] [TD]9.20[/TD] [TD]10.00[/TD] [TD]9.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]19-Jun-2013 [/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]Sweet Emma Rose[/TD] [TD]107[/TD] [TD]8.50[/TD] [TD]9.30[/TD] [TD]8.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]18-Jul-2013 [/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Wonderfully[/TD] [TD]107[/TD] [TD]11.20[/TD] [TD]8.00[/TD] [TD]9.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]18-Jul-2013 [/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Perhaps[/TD] [TD]106[/TD] [TD]11.20[/TD] [TD]9.00[/TD] [TD]10.1[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Stamina Index To assess the stamina required to win this race, I have taken the last 10 winners of the race and considered the average winning distance of both the sire and the dam’s offspring. Historically, the lowest average to take the prize was 6.8f last year, although this was very much an exception to the rule (the next lowest being 7.8f). The average over the last 10 years, incidentally, is 8.8f, suggesting you need to stay the mile well to come out on top. Looking at that stat, it makes you worry whether Rizeena really takes the best chance into the race. It looks as if 1 mile might be her limit, and I don’t think she quite got home over the mile in her final run of last season. Likely Winner’s Taking the leading contender’s one by one: Tapestry looks more than capable of reversing the form with Rizeena over the mile given they were only separated by ¾ length at The Curragh, and Tapestry looks certain to improve for the step up in trip. However, I do feel that Tapestry will be even better over further, and the mile in the Guineas might just be a touch on the sharp side. Only one horse has won the race in the last 10 years with a stamina average of over 10f, and that was Blue Bunting back in 2011 who certainly took me by surprise last year. Miss France really took the eye when she beat Lightning Thunder at Newmarket and would be my main pick for this race. She hasn’t quite done it in France, but she seemed to love the firm ground when she came across for her one run in England and she travelled like a dream. She showed a bit of greenness in the closing stages to give Lightning Thunder a bump but won that a shade cosily and was probably value for a little bit more than her winning distance suggests. Her breeding is perfect for this, and she would have to be a strong fancy to give the French their first win in this since Special Duty back in 2010. Lightning Thunder has to also be considered if Miss France is chosen as the main bet. Although beaten a shade cosily by the Andre Fabre trained winner, she hung all the way across the track and looked extremely green. This is a horse who will improve even more than Miss France for the step up in trip (stamina avg of 9.95f) and if she manages to get first run she might be difficult to peg back. The big worry is that, like Tapestry, her stamina average is very high and would be one of the highest to take this race in recent years. The main appeal behind this runner is her price tag of 33/1 which looks massive next to the tag of 6/1 on Miss France. I have confidence that Olly Stevens can get this filly ready for the race, and if he can, she can give us a live run for our money at a very big price. Wind Fire put in a very good run at Royal Ascot back in June behind No Nay Never and Coach House. She ran best of the horses who were held up that day and it looked a very promising run. However, I’m always very dubious about large speed figures achieved at Ascot and the fact Wind Fire went on to struggle afterwards suggests the figure wasn’t wholly accurate of her ability. There is an argument, however, that she was feeling the effects of a long 2 year old season and she would have to be looked at again if she lined up at 66/1 on the day. As it stands, however, she looks to have a tricky task on her hands. Kiyoshi is another filly who looked a star last year. Having struggled on debut, she quickly picked up a nice Maiden win at Goodwood and followed that up with a win at Ascot, beating Joyeuse (result yesterday). She then ran a good third behind Rizeena and Tapestry and wasn’t beaten far in a muddling race. Like Tapestry, you fancy Kiyoshi to improve for the step up in trip more than Rizeena and she may be a bet to reverse the form. Getting beat by Vorda certainly wasn’t a bad run on her final race at Newmarket, but I just feel she lacks the X Factor to go and take the prize here. Sweet Emma Rose and Perhaps won’t be running in the Guineas. So that leaves us with Wonderfully for Aiden O Brien. This certainly isn’t his first string for the race, but I don’t think you can discount this horse. She started off her career with a decent performance on debut getting up in the final strides over 6f. She then never got into the race at Ascot, and looked a horse with ability but not the pace to compete over the 6f trip. She then stepped up to 7f, and couldn’t be caught as Joseph O Brien had her on the lead from wire to wire. She then went to the Curragh and was desperately unlucky behind Rizeena, Tapestry and Kiyoshi. She was beaten when hampered that day but would certainly have finished closer, and has preferential breeding to both Rizeena and Tapestry when it comes to winning the Guineas. Her need for a longer trip was then re-inforced when she stepped up to a mile at Newmarket on her final run. There was no real gallop on and Wonderfully was outpaced as they sprinted to the line. She did well to eventually stay on for 4th. While I do think this horse will be better over slightly further, they should go a decent pace in the Guineas which should suit unlike the crawl they went at Newmarket (suiting Rizeena and Chriselliam who are both bred more for speed than stamina). If she can find herself running on late, I am confident she should be there or thereabouts and the current price of 430.0 on Betfair is very generous if she goes for the race. Advice 2 PTS WIN MISS FRANCE @ 10/1 Paddy Power .5 PT E/W LIGHTNING THUNDER @ 33/1 Ladbrokes 0.25 PT E/W WONDERFULLY @ 50/1 Bet 365 0.25 PT WIN WONDERFULLY @ 430.0 Betfair Well done Stewart you called that well with the first two home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted May 5, 2014 Author Share Posted May 5, 2014 Re: 1000 & 2000 Guineas 2014 1000 Guineas Preview In the fillies version of the classic, the market certainly suggests the race is going to be a very closely fought affair with most bookmakers going 6/1 the field. To find the value bets here, our first port of call is to identify the best 2 year old speed figures recorded by the filles of last year. [TABLE=width: 596] [TR] [TD]Date[/TD] [TD]Distance (f)[/TD] [TD]Horse[/TD] [TD]Speed Rating[/TD] [TD]Sire AWD (f)[/TD] [TD]Dam AWD (f)[/TD] [TD]Average[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]01-Sep-2013 [/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Rizeena[/TD] [TD]112[/TD] [TD]8.00[/TD] [TD]7.20[/TD] [TD]7.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]19-Jun-2013 [/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]Rizeena[/TD] [TD]111[/TD] [TD]8.00[/TD] [TD]7.20[/TD] [TD]7.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]01-Sep-2013 [/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Tapestry[/TD] [TD]111[/TD] [TD]11.20[/TD] [TD]9.20[/TD] [TD]10.2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]27-Sep-2013 [/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Miss France[/TD] [TD]111[/TD] [TD]9.30[/TD] [TD]8.60[/TD] [TD]8.95[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]27-Sep-2013 [/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Lightning Thunder[/TD] [TD]111[/TD] [TD]7.00[/TD] [TD]12.90[/TD] [TD]9.95[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]20-Jun-2013 [/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]Wind Fire[/TD] [TD]110[/TD] [TD]8.70[/TD] [TD]10.60[/TD] [TD]9.65[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]01-Sep-2013 [/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Kiyoshi[/TD] [TD]108[/TD] [TD]9.20[/TD] [TD]10.00[/TD] [TD]9.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]19-Jun-2013 [/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]Sweet Emma Rose[/TD] [TD]107[/TD] [TD]8.50[/TD] [TD]9.30[/TD] [TD]8.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]18-Jul-2013 [/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Wonderfully[/TD] [TD]107[/TD] [TD]11.20[/TD] [TD]8.00[/TD] [TD]9.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]18-Jul-2013 [/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Perhaps[/TD] [TD]106[/TD] [TD]11.20[/TD] [TD]9.00[/TD] [TD]10.1[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Stamina Index To assess the stamina required to win this race, I have taken the last 10 winners of the race and considered the average winning distance of both the sire and the dam’s offspring. Historically, the lowest average to take the prize was 6.8f last year, although this was very much an exception to the rule (the next lowest being 7.8f). The average over the last 10 years, incidentally, is 8.8f, suggesting you need to stay the mile well to come out on top. Looking at that stat, it makes you worry whether Rizeena really takes the best chance into the race. It looks as if 1 mile might be her limit, and I don’t think she quite got home over the mile in her final run of last season. Likely Winner’s Taking the leading contender’s one by one: Tapestry looks more than capable of reversing the form with Rizeena over the mile given they were only separated by ¾ length at The Curragh, and Tapestry looks certain to improve for the step up in trip. However, I do feel that Tapestry will be even better over further, and the mile in the Guineas might just be a touch on the sharp side. Only one horse has won the race in the last 10 years with a stamina average of over 10f, and that was Blue Bunting back in 2011 who certainly took me by surprise last year. Miss France really took the eye when she beat Lightning Thunder at Newmarket and would be my main pick for this race. She hasn’t quite done it in France, but she seemed to love the firm ground when she came across for her one run in England and she travelled like a dream. She showed a bit of greenness in the closing stages to give Lightning Thunder a bump but won that a shade cosily and was probably value for a little bit more than her winning distance suggests. Her breeding is perfect for this, and she would have to be a strong fancy to give the French their first win in this since Special Duty back in 2010. Lightning Thunder has to also be considered if Miss France is chosen as the main bet. Although beaten a shade cosily by the Andre Fabre trained winner, she hung all the way across the track and looked extremely green. This is a horse who will improve even more than Miss France for the step up in trip (stamina avg of 9.95f) and if she manages to get first run she might be difficult to peg back. The big worry is that, like Tapestry, her stamina average is very high and would be one of the highest to take this race in recent years. The main appeal behind this runner is her price tag of 33/1 which looks massive next to the tag of 6/1 on Miss France. I have confidence that Olly Stevens can get this filly ready for the race, and if he can, she can give us a live run for our money at a very big price. Wind Fire put in a very good run at Royal Ascot back in June behind No Nay Never and Coach House. She ran best of the horses who were held up that day and it looked a very promising run. However, I’m always very dubious about large speed figures achieved at Ascot and the fact Wind Fire went on to struggle afterwards suggests the figure wasn’t wholly accurate of her ability. There is an argument, however, that she was feeling the effects of a long 2 year old season and she would have to be looked at again if she lined up at 66/1 on the day. As it stands, however, she looks to have a tricky task on her hands. Kiyoshi is another filly who looked a star last year. Having struggled on debut, she quickly picked up a nice Maiden win at Goodwood and followed that up with a win at Ascot, beating Joyeuse (result yesterday). She then ran a good third behind Rizeena and Tapestry and wasn’t beaten far in a muddling race. Like Tapestry, you fancy Kiyoshi to improve for the step up in trip more than Rizeena and she may be a bet to reverse the form. Getting beat by Vorda certainly wasn’t a bad run on her final race at Newmarket, but I just feel she lacks the X Factor to go and take the prize here. Sweet Emma Rose and Perhaps won’t be running in the Guineas. So that leaves us with Wonderfully for Aiden O Brien. This certainly isn’t his first string for the race, but I don’t think you can discount this horse. She started off her career with a decent performance on debut getting up in the final strides over 6f. She then never got into the race at Ascot, and looked a horse with ability but not the pace to compete over the 6f trip. She then stepped up to 7f, and couldn’t be caught as Joseph O Brien had her on the lead from wire to wire. She then went to the Curragh and was desperately unlucky behind Rizeena, Tapestry and Kiyoshi. She was beaten when hampered that day but would certainly have finished closer, and has preferential breeding to both Rizeena and Tapestry when it comes to winning the Guineas. Her need for a longer trip was then re-inforced when she stepped up to a mile at Newmarket on her final run. There was no real gallop on and Wonderfully was outpaced as they sprinted to the line. She did well to eventually stay on for 4th. While I do think this horse will be better over slightly further, they should go a decent pace in the Guineas which should suit unlike the crawl they went at Newmarket (suiting Rizeena and Chriselliam who are both bred more for speed than stamina). If she can find herself running on late, I am confident she should be there or thereabouts and the current price of 430.0 on Betfair is very generous if she goes for the race. Advice 2 PTS WIN MISS FRANCE @ 10/1 Paddy Power .5 PT E/W LIGHTNING THUNDER @ 33/1 Ladbrokes 0.25 PT E/W WONDERFULLY @ 50/1 Bet 365 0.25 PT WIN WONDERFULLY @ 430.0 Betfair 10/1 winner, 33/1 2nd and a 98/1 forecast. I'll take that !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted May 5, 2014 Share Posted May 5, 2014 Re: 1000 & 2000 Guineas 2014 Unreal stuff Stewy! :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertob Posted May 5, 2014 Share Posted May 5, 2014 Re: 1000 & 2000 Guineas 2014 Well done Stewart - amazing stuff! :clap As stated here before, had Miss France ante-post, so delighted with the result obviously, even though I have to say, after her poor seasonal reappearance I feared she might have not trained on. But boy, that was some performance, she did it the hard way yesterday! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toast Posted May 5, 2014 Share Posted May 5, 2014 Re: 1000 & 2000 Guineas 2014 Well done Stewart. Hopefully the stays in France for their Oaks, as she will be all over the place around Epsom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted May 5, 2014 Share Posted May 5, 2014 Re: 1000 & 2000 Guineas 2014 Quality stuff Stewart :clap How good is Andre Fabre... brings 2 horses over and takes the 2 group races on the card. Absolute master trainer IMO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncht Posted May 5, 2014 Share Posted May 5, 2014 Re: 1000 & 2000 Guineas 2014 Looks great! I'm new to punting. I'll try my best here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing Bailey Posted May 6, 2014 Share Posted May 6, 2014 Re: 1000 & 2000 Guineas 2014 Well done Stewartd, incredible stuff!!:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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