The Progressives

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Going to run this thread alongside my 'Maidens' thread. I personally move horses to another list once they've won their maidens and try to determine their class and likely progression. There won't be as many bets in this thread but its interesting to see how horses develop with their racing etc. Ive had 4 qualifiers this season so far but only bet 3 of them as one was odds on: Don't 9/4(unplaced) Grasped 1/3 (won) Western Hymn 11/8(won, took 7/4) Kingman 15/8(won) There's a few entered up this week and are as follows Be Ready (Newmarket 16th 3.30. Newmarket 17th 4.05) Folk Melody (Newmarket 16th 4.05) Pelerin (Newmarket 16th 4.05) Obliterator (Newmarket 16th 4.40) Sudden Wonder (Newmarket 17th 2.55) Seagull Star (Newmarket 17th 2.55) Cloudscape (Newmarket 17th 5.40) Warrior Of Light (Newmarket 17th 5.40)

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Re: The Progressives of the 4 that have ran this season I'll be removing Don't from the list. Comments Don't- never saw the horses pre race and may have changed my mind backing it if I had, looked like it hadn't grown over the winter and didn't show in the race at all even though the maiden it won was over same CD. removed. Grasped- Again quite green and looked in trouble before swooping late on to just get up. Needs a step up in trip now and won't back over a mile again. Should progress to I feel high 80's at least judged on time for final 2f of debut run. At least the handicapper can't raise mark much with narrow win. Western Hymn- fulfilled the promise of his debut performance when again coming from off slow fractions to win going away. Next stop Dante for him and no surprise if he were to win that en route to Derby tilt. Kingman- almost Frankelish the way he quickened away from that good field and worthy favourite now for the Gunieas now. Haven't seen anything that could touch him yet.

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Re: The Progressives I'm adding todays Windsor maiden Arod to my list. He bolted up today in what admittedly could be an average maiden. nonetheless he was still quite impressive as he ran with the choke out and had to be rushed up to take up the running. When he was asked to quicken he did just that and if he learns to settle he could be useful. I'd be surprised if he is a Derby horse and is probably better than a handicapper.

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Re: The Progressives 4.05 Newmarket 16th Folk Melody, showed a good turn of foot to win a 7f(G/F) maiden on the July course last season, likely to need further in time. Pelerin, good debut run at Kempton to quicken off slow fractions to win going away. 4.40 Newmarket Obliterator, won well on debut at the Curragh(8f good) staying on well in the final furlong to assert. Likely to need at least 10f as a 3yo. Going to watch Obliterator as he's taking on some nice horses here and in truth needs to step up a good deal and at 7/2 looks a bit short. Pelerin looked good on a/w but the form hasn't worked out. the time she recorded for the last 3f suggest she is classy though and @ 14/1 is worth a small bet. Folk Melody is worth a bet too in Pelerins race as she looked good in her maiden win, goes on the ground and has spent the winter in UK(didn't go to Dubai at all). 1pt e/w on Folk Melody @ 8/1(BOG) .5pt e/w on Pelerin @ 16/1(BOG)

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Re: The Progressives Folk Melody ran ok considering the jump in class and finished a few lengths behind the principals after being trapped wide throughout and suffering a bit scrimmaging. Pelerin didn't feature in the finish at all and gain was trapped wide, ultimately a step too far. I'll keep both on my list however. Dont think we saw a Guineas winner in that field as Sandiva won as she was entitled to do given her smart 2yo form. There was a fair but trouble in running and I'll watch the race a few more times to see what happened and to who. Obliterator ran with great credit but was readily brushed aside in the final furlong by Godolphins True Story who absolutely blew them away. This could be a serious Derby horse given the distance and manner he disposed of rivals rated 112,110 etc by some 13 lengths. Trues Story is added to the list. -3 points on day Bank 97 Ive added impressive Newmarket winner Mind Of Madness to my list. Looks like a Royal Ascot contender already.

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Re: The Progressives Newmarket 17th April 2.55 Sudden Wonder, progressed with racing as a 2yo. twice ran with promise behind stablemates before quickening away in a Class 2 small field on his final start. Trip and ground should be ideal tomorrow. 4.05 Be Ready, started of career in a class 1 event before staying on strongly over 7f on 2nd start to make no mistake. Long been regarded as one of Godolphins best prospects and although rated 11 below odds on fav Toormore he should be suited by race conditions and is open to yet more progress. 5.40 Cloudscape, Derby entry who impressed on his Kempton debut win on the same card as stablemate Western Hymn. Overall his time wasn't as good as Western Hymn but he did well to quicken into a quickening pace and still overhaul the leaders. Really do think he is of at least Listed/Group 3 potential so his mark of 85 looks very generous. 1pt win Sudden Wonder @ 7/2 1pt win Be Ready @2/1 1pt win Cloudscape @7/2

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Re: The Progressives 2 nice winners today in Sudden Wonder @7/1(thankyou BOG) and Cloudscape 7/2 with a rule 4 however. Both should continue to progress and remain on the list. Be Ready bombed out and looked as if something was amiss to run that poor. 3 pts staked 14.15 pts returned bank 108.15

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Re: The Progressives Only one bet on this thread today: 2.20 Lingfield Interception, most progressive last season and looks like the step up to 7f will suit well. A negative today is stall 14, as she's been held up the last twice I don't think that we'll see Ted Durcan racing 3 or 4 wide round the bends or at least I hope not. Stable runners usually lack nothing for fitness so I hope she'll be ready. With the draw concern I'll back her e/w just in case she gets held up in traffic. .5pt e/w @ 5/1(BOG)

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Re: The Progressives Hadaatha, Postponed, Basem, Windshear, Spirit of Xian, Aeolus, Lily Rules, Lamar, Mind Of Madness, True Story and Observational have all been added to this notebook from Newmarket this week

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Re: The Progressives Interception beaten by the draw which I feared, last coming into home straight a finished really well into a never nearer 5th. -1pt 107.15

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Re: The Progressives One tomorrow 2.55 Kempton Zibelina, progressive last season after winning her maiden as she went on to win a listed race then a Group 3 before finishing 4th in another Group 3. Her 4th place in her final start was behind Integral who was very progressive herself and finished her season with a 2nd to Sky Lantern in a Group 1. Dansili stock do ok at Kempton so the surface should hold no fears and her stable are going well too. 1pt win @ 7/4(BOG)

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Re: The Progressives Zibelina was a non runner. Im going to add Godolphins Nottingham winner Zaaemah to this list. She's entered up well, took on colts last night and showed good speed and resolution to win off what was a dawdling pace. Im sure given a truly run race it will see her in an even better light.

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Re: The Progressives 2.50 Epsom Moontime, already gelded so won't be running in the Derby itself but looks the type to progress this season. Won a soft ground maiden on debut last year at Newmarket after being keen enough. Hopefully he wont be too fresh today and can at least make the frame. .5pt e/w @ 5/1(BOG)

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Re: The Progressives Moontime ran really poor, can't have been ground as it won maiden on similar. Jury out on this one. Friday 24th Got a few running tomorrow with the 4.55 Sandown having four in same race. Elite Army, Mannaro, Hooded and Windshear. I was most impressed with Elite Army on debut last back end so will side with him. Western Hymn goes in the Derby trial and while his odds are too short for me tomorrow I hope he wins in good style as I've an Ante Post bet on him for Epsom. In the first at Sandown I have three runners in Sacred Act, First Flight and End of Line. Again I'm going to side with the Godolphin runner First Flight at the prices. He won his maiden before being beaten 4 length in a Group 3. The other two both won their maidens impressively and will no doubt prove better than their opening handicap marks. 1.40 Sandown, First Flight .5pt e/w @ 6/1(BOG) 4.55 Sandown, Elite Army .5pt e/w @ 5/1(BOG)

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Re: The Progressives could of been better but could of been worse. I don't think that both the Godolphin runners handled the soft ground and won't be backing either of them again on soft ground especially First Flight. He plugged on the one pace when the ground was at its best today. he'll remain on the list as I do think he'll win races when conditions are right. Elite Army was well supported throughout the day, a bit fresh early he was pushed up by SDS with Windshear and made a fight of it until the final half furlong when events caught up with him. He may have needed the run and he should come on for it but maybe the now very soft ground was to blame also. He does have quite a knee action so maybe he'll handle a bit of cut. staked 2pts returned 2.25pts bank 106.40 +6.40

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Re: The Progressives Sandown performances today: What About Carlo was in my maiden list last year but I didn't think he had much scope to improve of 85 so I left him off this list, I was well wrong here. His time today compares very well to the Group 2 time won by Tullius(who backed in the Lincoln but left alone today!!), What about Carlo carried 9.2 in 1m 48.42 and Tullius 9.1 in 1m 48.1 Tullius was rated 110 but ran to somewhere round 117 today. Whatever the handicapper gives What About Carlo suggests that it wont stop him going in again under similar conditions. End of Line can be marked up a bit when runner up to What about Carlo as he was given far too much to do and met a bit traffic, he was also trying to give the winner 4lb so It could be argued that he ran to near a mark of 100. He can win soon as he wont go up too much I'd imagine. First Flight tired late on and will also be winning soon back on a firmer surface. Western Hymn(104) took the trial despite the ground which blunted his turn of foot I feel. Connections were happy with him and he goes to the Dante next. His time was 2m 19.53 carrying 9.1 whilst Windshear won the concluding 3yo handicap in 2m 21.16 carrying 8.12 off a mark of 80. Windshear than therefore be marked up a fair bit as he raced on the days worst ground. To me he's ran to somewhere near 95 so a 6lb rise is likely to be generous. This again boosts Cloudscape who beat Windshear comfortably giving him 6lb. Cloudscape has been rated 95 after that victory, it looks like he's going to be a group horse before long and would be of major interest again next run. The 2nd in the Windshear race was Collaboration who stayed on well and again is another progressive type who's improving with distance and looks ahead off his mark.

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Re: The Progressives just the one Saturday 2.00 Leicester Argot, Rated 73 after winning his maiden on debut at Nottingham(good) in the style of a decent sort, Tucked away off the pace he made his move to switch round the field to the outside and win going away. 73 looks workable from a stable who know the time of day. .5pt e/w @7/1(BOG)

[santos_]

Re: The Progressives Younger horses are an area I tend not to get too involved with as I find it harder to evaluate horses on only a few runs compared to more seasoned horses with form in the book so it's interesting to read someone focusing on them. Best of luck with this.

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Re: The Progressives

Younger horses are an area I tend not to get too involved with as I find it harder to evaluate horses on only a few runs compared to more seasoned horses with form in the book so it's interesting to read someone focusing on them. Best of luck with this.

Thanks Santos

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Re: The Progressives will have to check Argot has still got 4 legs. out to 17s on Betfair, not a good sign as stable runners usually well backed when fancied.

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Re: The Progressives Argot ran third @8/1. was unlucky in some ways as when he came with his run out wide he had nothing to race with as two came stands side. He made the same move of pulling wide then quickening before just flattening off. He may get a mile on pedigree and racing style. 1pt staked 1.5pts returned. 106.90 +6.90

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Re: The Progressives Got a couple Monday and not the progressive type who could achieve the top, these are probably mid grade handicappers in the making who've caught my eye a few times in maidens who are now enetering handicaps off low marks. 2.10 Kempton Harry's Summer, was blinkered first time last run for handicap debut but missed the break! ran on to be a never nearer and should pick up a similar race or two. .5pt e/w @ 13/2 3.10 Kempton Rome, Ryan Moore in the saddle for the first time on handicap debut after running ok in 3 maidens. .5pt e/w @ 6/1 1.40 Kempton Musalaha, Ran in 3 maidens as 2yo over inadequate trips, improved form shown on handicap debut last run. Off 57 here and surely better than that. 1pt win @ 5/2 all prices BOG

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Re: The Progressives Musalaha and Harry's Summer were poor with no obvious excuses and will be removed from list. Rome ran well but was nailed on the line. 3pts staked 1.3pts returned loss 1.7pts 105.20 +5.20

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Re: The Progressives 3.55 Lingfield Bustopher, the form of his maiden win last time out could hardly have worked out better as the 2nd Heisman won well today and the 3rd Abseil hacked up last week. his opening mark of 88 looks fair enough and, although he doesn't exactly look chucked in, most of his rivals here have questions to answer themselves. 1pt win @2/1(BOG)

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Re: The Progressives Bustopher was only 3rd(would've been 2nd but got snatched up near line as winner came across) behind one beaten a distance last run! On to tomorrow 3rd May 3.50 Newmarket Kingman, ticks all the boxes and although unoriginal I can't see past him here, Toormore rates the danger. IF Australia is the beast the O'Briens think then good luck to them. 1pt win 7/4(BOG) 5.00 Newmarket Cloudscape, If he's the horse I think he is he should take this contest n route to better things. Only concern is he's back out again relatively quickly. 1pt win 7/4(BOG) 2.25 Thirsk Pelerin, couldn't cope with the class lift last run in the Nell Gwyn but could be chucked in here off 81 plus another 5lb off with jockey claim. Looked good and recorded good sectional times on debut. 1pt win 4/1(BOG)

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Re: The Progressives mixed day but still in profit. Kingman nailed by outsider, wounded!! Cloudscape, never ran a jot, disappointing and maybe the run did come too quick. Pelerin, scooted in @ 8/1. 3pts staked 9pts returned 110.20 +10.20pts

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Re: The Progressives sunday 4th 5.35 Newmarket Ganges, caught my eye every run in maidens over inadequate trips, steps up 3f for handicap debut. 1pt win @5/1(BOG) 2.05 Newmarket Mighty Yar, could still have a lot more to offer as a 4yo, a huge horse and has obviously been given time to develop, last run was in listed contest on his seasonal bow but probably soft ground rather than lack of stamina to blame for iffy show. Back on a firmer surface he should go well of 89. held fancy entries as a 3yo so must be held in some regard. .5pt e/w @6/1(BOG)

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Re: The Progressives Mighty Yar won well in the end and may even pick up another handicap if connections keep him to this level. Ganges ran well too but found a couple too good but lost nothing in defeat, another step up in trip looks likely to suit too. Miners Lamp ran really well to be 2nd in Ganges race and I'll put him in list although he may have to step up to listed races after this run. Taghrooda was mightily impressive and looks a good bet for the Oaks at 4/1 still. 2pts staked 4.75pts returned 112.95 +12.95

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Re: The Progressives Monday 3.15 Beverley Grasped, stepping up in trip by 2f is a good move as she's only just got up the final strides in her two wins over 8f. Drawn well in stall 1 if G.Lee gets out and will hopefully take all the beating off 74. 1pt win @2/1(BOG)

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Re: The Progressives Grasped nowhere today, didnt see race but will watch re run when i can. -1pt 111.95 +11.95 Tuesday 6th 2.40 Kempton Si Senor, up 4lb for latest course win but should go well once again. 1pt win @7/2(BOG) 3.40 Kempton Warrior Of Light, heavily supported when successful last course win. Expect more improvement as he gets older. 1pt win @11/4(BOG) 5.10 Kempton Billingsgate, polytrack winner who should be more suited by return to the surface than the soft ground last run. 1pt win @9/2(BOG)