Cycling 2014.

[antogz]

Paris-Roubaix on today. It has hard to look past Cancellera the form he is in, he looks unbeatable at the moment, but I still think he is too short at 15/8. Vanmarcke has been very consistent and will be close. He looks a great e/w bet at 6/1. Vandenbergh at 66/1 is way too big, done well at the Tour of Flanders and with doubts over Boonen quick step might work for him. I also done Van Avermet at 20/1

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2014. The Dauphine starts today and on paper it looks a 2 horse between Froome and Contador and I think it will be too. Nibali and Porte look like the main dangers, but Porte will be riding for Froome and Nibali has shown nothing this year yet. I think it will be very close between Froome and Contador, Contador has put Froome in his place a couple of times this year already, but to be honest that counts for nothing now. We know Froome wasn't in form earlier this year and all Contador got out of that was a confidence boost. I don't think Contador will go all out here as he doesn't want to show his hand, while Froome would like to defend his crown. Going by the teams that looks the case too. I couldn't have a bet on either and I can't see much e/w value either maybe Kwiatkowski at 50/1 who could go well. I think Froome is great e/w value at 16/1 with Boyles for today's stage. I wouldn't have much between the top 4 so at that price he is worth a bet. Overall 1pt e/w Kwiatkowski 50/1 generally Stage 1 2pt e/w Froome 16/1 Boyles.

[robertob]

Re: Cycling 2014. Really look forward to the Dauphine which will give us some fascinating insight into what might happen a couple of weeks later when it really matters. I don't find the overall classification too interesting betting wise, but todays Time Trial should be exciting and I hope isn't as clear cut as it seems on the way the stage is priced up. Yes Kwiatkowski should be hard to beat but can't have him for such a short price as there is some good opposition today. First of all, I agree with antogz about Froome. Big value in the price. Froome might not be ideally suited to the distance but he is a good ITT and the climb will suit him. He will surly not want to lose any time today and if he might not win, he will not be far away I presume and for that is a good each-way bet in my mind. I assume that Sylvain Chavanel has targeted this stage and will put everything in he has to offer. His form is good this year, and he is strong in this discipline. He must have any chance to go close. Betfair gives prices of around 2pts higher than all other bookies, for that reason I have him small for win. Targeting some outsiders for big prices and small money as I feel they could spring a surprise: - Damien Howsom: Still a young and developing rider, finished third at the beginning of the year in the Australian ITT Championship (won it in 2013). Won last year the U23 ITT World Championship, good results in prologues as in longer Time Trials. The course should suit. - Alexis Gougeard: Young French rider with potential. Won earlier this month the Boucles de l'Aulne. Showed strong form in ITT's last year, won the prologue of the Tour de l'Avenir and finished 3rd in the French ITT Championships. - Anton Vorobyev: Russian ITT champion and former U23 TT World Champion. had a light campaign this season so far, and a largely disappointing one, but showed clear improvement when 3rd in the TT at the Bayern Rundfahrt, only five seconds beaten by Geraint Thomas and should improve from that. Chris Froome @ 16/1 Betfred - 1.5pt e/w Sylvain Chavanel @ 8/1 Betfair - 1pt win Anton Vorobyev @ 33/1 PP - 0.5pts e/w Damien Howsom @ 100/1 Betfred - 0.5pts e/w Alexis Gougeard @ 200/1 PP - 0.5pts e/w

[robertob]

Re: Cycling 2014. Booom, Chris Froome! He smashed Contador's time! What a monster he is! How could they offer 16/1? sick. Anyways, nice win. Chavanel also did quite well, the others... not quite sure where they ended up, surly not in the top ten.

[robertob]

Re: Cycling 2014. Second stage of the Dauphine, and I'm sure all major GC contenders will go all out to win the stage. Contador and Nibali will surly attack on the last climb, I also would expect Froome do be ready to show us more of his class. Of course he is the man everything evolves around. However I've identified three interesting long-shots, who could go really well in this stage tomorrow, and at the Dauphine in general. - Leopold König: The Czech rider from the German NetApp team demonstrated that he is in good nick after some injury problems earlier, when he finished a fine 4th in the Bayern Rundfahrt general classification, and finished a strong third, not far beaten, in the only real Mountain stage. He did lose only 17 seconds at the Time Trial today, which shows he has some form for sure and should improve further with any day of racing. The mountains are his terrain, he is an excellent climber, won a tough stage at the Vuelta last year as well as at the Tour of California. He is NetApp's GC contender, the team will work for him, and I would expect him to be right there when the final climb will be approached tomorrow. - Romain Bardet: One of the big French hopes. Very talented young rider, good climber with loads of potential and a good kick. Has had not too many races under his belt this season, but showed fine form nonetheless and had a good preparation thanks to a fine performance in the Bayern Rundfahrt. Won earlier this year the Valence Drôme Classic in fine style and proved his talent with a strong 2nd place in a tough mountain stage at the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya when only beaten by a tight margin by Van Garderen. He wants to prove himself as a real GC contender in the Dauphine, so tomorrow is a good chance to do so. - Tejay van Garderen: Impressed me with a good performance in the TT today, which proves he is in decent shape after a difficult season so far, interrupted by injuries. He'll be BMC's GC contender and he wants to show that they are right in doing so. He still generally young, but extremely talented and certainly a good climber. He won a big mountain stage at the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya when he beat Bardet, and was second in the stage to Alp d'Huez last year at the Tour. To ride a good Dauphine is vital for him and for that reason I'd be surprised to see him dropped tomorrow. If he is in contention when they reach the last climb he should have a good chance to go very close. Leopold König @ 66/1 PP - 0.5pts e/w Romain Bardet @ 33/1 PP - 0.5pts e/w Tejay van Garderen @ 40/1 PP - 0.5pts e/w

[robertob]

Re: Cycling 2014. Froome did it. He looks increasingly like super human. Bit disappointed with all my three selections that none of them was there when it mattered. They all faded away when Froome attacked. Third stage tomorrow, pretty much the only chance for the sprinters to get their pick of the pie I suppose, even though stage 6 might provide the sole other opportunity. There will be breakaways and they might have a chance to come home, if they are able to get a substantial advantage in the first difficult part of the race. However the final 30km are completely flat. The sprinter teams will do as hard as they can to make sure this will be a finish where speed matters. If it comes to do this, then there are many chances in this field, taken out the red hot favourite Demare who is super strong in the finish obviously, but anything can happen here and I really like the chance of Leigh Howard who is clearly overpriced. Didn't show too much in recent weeks but proved he can take on the best when finishing twice runner-up behind excellent opposition at the Tour of Qatar. Also his 2nd behind Mezgec at the opening stage of the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya is noteworthy. Leigh Howard @ 25/1 PP - 0.5pts e/w

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2014. Froome done the business and he also won today's stage. Himself and Contador had an epic battle. It really is hotting up nicely. Stage 3 tomorrow and we should see a bunch sprint. Demare is the 5/4 favourite and barring an accident he should be winning this. Nizzolo is his only real rival but I think he is faster than him. Demare will have a full lead out train while Nizzolo will be living off scraps. Demare looked very good in Dunkirk and Pacardie his acceleration was phenomonal in the sprints that he won and I can't see anyone coming near him here. I had him priced up at 4/6 myself so the 5/4 is a great price. Nizzolo should take 2nd, Meersman is only coming back from injury so can't have him. Howard, Arndt, Hushovd and Martinez all have similar chances. I'm going to have a small bet on Martinez at 28/1, he has been quiet this year but if he can get back to his form of 2013 he must have a good chance here 4pt win Demare 5/4 bet 365 0.5pts e/w Martinez 28/1 bet 365.

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2014. Demare left us down today, he couldn't get on his lead out wheel and lost position, he didn't even sprint for the finish finishing 8th. Our other pick Martinez finished 4th in a photo really unlucky with that one. Tomorrow we have a couple of climbs with a technical decent down to the finish. The bookies have a mixture of GC, breakaway and decent climbers who can sprint at the top of the market. I think a breakaway have a very good chance to stay away tomorrow if there is no GC guys in it. I expect guys like Taaramae, Stybar, Spilak, Velits, Caruso, Voigts, De Weert, Jungels, Pineau, Moinard and Visconti to try and get into the break. I don't think the GC guys will go for it maybe on the decent. I think a breakaway doesn't make it and the GC guys don't attack, you can't look beyond Gerrans or Gallopin for the win. In this scenario Gallopin looks very good value at 25/1. Of the breakaways I like Spilak 100/1, he was one of the favourites for the race but the heat got to him in stage 2. Stybar 100/1 and Taaramae 125/1 are my other 2 at big odds. Both are far back on GC and this profile should suit. 1.5 pts e/w Gallopin 25/1 betfred 0.75pts e/w Spilak 100/1 betfred 0.5pts e/w Stybar 100/1 PP 0.3 pts e/w Taarame 125/1 PP

[robertob]

Re: Cycling 2014. Think there is a big chance for a breakaway to make it today and I identified two candidates who have excellent chances to go really close if all goes well. - Jan Bakelants: Winner of the prestigious Prix de Wallonie last year, can climb well enough in terrain like today, and is smart if it comes to tactics. He will try his luck today, I'm pretty sure. - Giovanni Visconti: This stage is made for him. He has a good finish, he climbs well, he will in a break today. Won two stages at the Giro last year and while not shown results this season so far, this could be his day I feel. Giovanni Viscont @ 33/1 Sportingbet - 0.5pts e/w Jan Bakelants @ 40/1 Betred - 0.5pts e/w

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2014. None of my riders got in the money, but some of the riders I mentioned did get in the breakaway and it stayed away with Trofimov winning. I think similar riders like I mentioned above will try and get into the break and I wouldn't rule out any of my picks from yesterday. One I like at big odds is Huzarski 100/1 PP, his team missed out on the break today and they tried to pull the break back I can't see them missing out tomorrow and he looks like the likely rider to get into it. Julien Simon 80/1 is another that interests me. Cofidis will want someone in the break and he looks the most likely option as he is down on GC. He is a good climber and the profile should suit tomorrow. Peraud or Cherel will try and get into the break for AG2R as well, so I will go with Peraud 100/1 PP, again this profile should suit perfectly. My last rider is Rybakov for Katusha,they done it yesterday and will be out to stage hunt and he has proven a strong rider so far. 1pt e/w Huzarski 100/1 PP 0.5pts e/w Simon 80/1 bet 365 0.5pts e/w Peraud 100/1 PP 0.3 pts e/w Rybakov 250/1 betfair

[robertob]

Re: Cycling 2014. Had Bakelants in the right group yesterday, though he was only able to finish 7th in the end, which was a bit disappointing. I expect Visconti to attack today though. This stage is perfectly tailored for him and what he showed so far at the Dauphine is truly not his real ability. I expect a big performance from Simon Gerrans today as well. It seemed he took it easy until now, but this stage should suit him well. Not easy, but not too difficult, but demanding overall. Rein Taaramäe is another interesting contender today. He is much better than what he showed in the two mountain stages at the Dauphine and I wouldn't be surprised to see him having a go today too. What all three riders have in common: They climb well but are so far off the GC contenders in the overall standings, that it is likely they could get the go ahead from the field if they would be in a breakaway. Rein Taaramäe @ 50/1 Boylesports - 0.5pts e/w Giovanni Viscont @ 28/1 Coral - 0.5pts e/w Simon Gerrans @ 25/1 Boylesports - 0.5pts e/w

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2014. The winner yesterday was one of picks from the previous day so a bit annoyed over that. Today we have another lumpy profile. I think the break have a 50-50 chance of staying away with the sprinters looking to get involved today. One rider that jumps out at me is Demare at the prices. I backed him at 25/1 last night he can still be got at 16/1. I'd have him a 10/1 shot at best. The bookies by the prices think he won't get over the hills near the finish, i think he will and he has proven already this year he can do it by winning the 2nd stage in Dunkirk. He missed out on the sprint in stage 3 so will be gunning for this stage. He is the fastest in the race by far so if it comes to a sprint he should win. I like Roelandts 50/1 as well. The profile should suit and he could be a man for the breakaway, Lotto have been very active and I can see him trying something. Gauthier 150/1 is my other pick today, his team will try and get in a break and with Voeckler not in great shape he looks the next bet for a stage win. bets 2pts e/w Demare 16/1 PP 1pt e/w Roelandts 50/1 Boyles 0.5pts e/w Gauthier 150/1 PP 0.5pts e/w Kangert 150/1 PP

[SteveD53]

Re: Cycling 2014. Been busy and no time to bet on The Dauphine. What a race though! Thanks antzog for all the great posts! Froome's possible injury has him as second favourite for tomorrow's stage. There is a 'wall' with a gradient of 27% apparently, which should also favour Contador. But Froome is just too classy for me to resist at 3.50. Tiny fanboy bet also on Adam Yates, 34.00 e/w

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2014. Clasica San Sebastian This is on Saturday, one day race with a very strong field. It should all come down to the final climb about 8k out, which is short but a wall in places. It is 2.9km at over 9%, it is over 20% in 2 places. Sagan is favourite for this which is insane in my opinion, he won't get over that last climb in a good position. I'll be laying him all day along with a few others. I'd have Valverde, Rodriguez and Dan Martin the big favourites if fit, but there is serious question marks over the last 2 and there price suggests this, while Valverde was very tired at the end of the Tour. I'm willing to take a chance on Martin@ 50/1 with PP. At least he will be fresh and finished 15th overall in the Tour of Austria recently which shows he has some form. He will love this final climb and this classic is similar enough to Liege Bastogne Liege, where he won in 2013 and was going to when this year when he slipped at the last corner. He would have the best sprint of the climbers too and I include Valverde in that. He is way over-priced just on the fact that he has seen very little action lately and mightn't be fit enough. We have the good climbers who are very good sprinters at the top of the market, Sagan, Gerrans, Albasini, Meersman, Gallopin etc. I think if any of Martin, Valverde, Rodriguez and Moreno put the hammer down on the last climb, none of these will be anywhere to be seen. I have done Mollema at 40/1 with PP as well.

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2014. Adding Rodgers at 120's as well. I actually didn't see his name in the betting. He should be fairly fresh after the Tour, this finish should suit as well. If he can get over the climb anywhere near the favourites, his descending and his ability to attack on short flat sections should give him a great chance here. He won a stage in the Tour with a similar profile to tomorrow albeit on a bigger scale. He has to have a chance with the form he is in.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2014. This is what I hate about post Tour cycling - no liquidity or books offering prices (not allowed a Paddy account). Martin at 50/1 looks great shopping but every winner of this since 2008 has ridden the tour and with the price on the Irishman gone I think that's my angle for this week. Keen for some of the longer odds as Sagan can't be had but am hoping his presence could mean that, like so often in le tour, the lone attack is allowed to go because nobody wants to chase with Sagan around. Alessandro De Marchi @ 400 Betfair Given it's a One Day race Cannondale would be smart to try from multiple angles and to have De Marchi attack is the best one they have. We saw in the tour have active he is and he's quite a handy climber over these shortish climbs. Best way to protect Sagan is to have a team-mate alone at the front and force Movistar to chase. Michael Albasini @ 67 Bet365 Profile for me looks Fleche Wallone like and Albasini has done well in that race. That it ends on a bit of flat after the climb only enhances his chances IMO as he doesn't have the climbing sprint of Valverde but on flatter finish would have a much better chance. Will have a look at a few more tomorrow in the hope some liquidity arrives.

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2014. CP, Fleche Wallone finishes on the Mur de Huy, there is no descent, maybe you were thinking of another classic finish. The finish of this race has changed this year as well compared to previous years. That last climb is a lot harder this year and Gallopin who won it last year would have a lesser chance this year. I see the price on Martin is gone hard to find value now.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2014. Sorry I didn't mean the entire profile just that this final climb doesn't look too dissimilar to me to the penultimate climb of Fleche Wallone. My point is though that given Albasini has finished so well in Fleche I think the descent/flat finish here actually favours him rather than disadvantages him.

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2014. PP showing Peraud and TJVG no respect both 200/1. Do they realise how hard the last climb is. While the climb might not suit them, they can climb and both are very good TT which could come in handy at the finish, not to mention both are in very good form worth a few euro anyway.

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2014.

Sorry I didn't mean the entire profile just that this final climb doesn't look too dissimilar to me to the penultimate climb of Fleche Wallone. My point is though that given Albasini has finished so well in Fleche I think the descent/flat finish here actually favours him rather than disadvantages him.

I was thinking you meant that just pointing it out for you in case you didn't, fair point on Albasini. Value seems to be gone on a lot of the others.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2014. Yeah value has gone on a lot of riders. I actually love that there is a descent finish here because it's going to make it harder for a Valverde type to win because if they go on the climb and fail then that's there race run. I think this opens things up a bit and makes for good betting. Agree on TJVG in particular. 200s not available to me with any books but trying to get matched on Betfair. With GVA and Gilbert there as well I can definitely see him going on the attack. Probably won't succeed but at 200/1 the odds are more than in your favour. Another I like the look of is Arnold Jeannesson. He was so impressive to me in the final week of the tour and often times when only the GC riders remained it would be just Jeannesson as the sole remaining domestique in the entire group. No way can I see Fedrigo winning so I expect it that Jeannesson will be their plan A today and I really am impressed with the form he is taking into this. Also have to question I think how fresh Valverde is going to be. He sucked in the ITT because he raced the tour so hard and there was a lot of climbing in the final week. Is one week really enough to recover and be in winning condition? Hard to say but I think there were riders in the tour who left with better form and condition, Peraud and TJVG chief among them. Surely the real hero here though is Peter Sagan. His participation is giving us better odds on a lot of riders.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2014. Adding one more, Tom Jelte Slagter @ 55. He's won a couple of stages in Paris Nice which had a climb before the end but finished on a bit of flat after the descent. I don't expect Sagan to be there but I think if it does come down to a reduced sprint I think Slagter has a chance against the likes of Valverde and Gerrans and am happy to be on here. Full List Tom Jelte Slagter @ 55 Michael Albasini @ 67 Arnold Jeannesson @ 120 Alessandro De Marchi @ 400 Managed to get 200s on Betfair for TJVG and Peraud too.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2014. I like the look of Pete Kennaugh in the Men's Road Race at the Commonwealth Games tomorrow. We have seen one rider wanting to make a statement win gold this week and Kennaugh is the same and he has been in great form since not being picked for the Tour. I think Cav would have been a good thing if fit, but I can see the Isle of Man winning gold anyway. David Millar is sure to want to do well, but I am just not sure he is in good enough form to win.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2014. He should have sat up and waited once no one went with him. He clearly had good legs as well but my money was done very soon after the start.