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Aidymac

Giro D'Italia Cycling 2014 > May 9th - June 1st

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Re: Giro D'Italia Cycling 2014 > May 9th - June 1st Have taken the 1.90 at Paddypower for Marcel Kittel to win the second stage. Their offer of money back if any Italian wins, basically means you're betting on Kittel to beat Matthews and Bouhani, or possibly Swift. Looks like being wet and a bit windy, and there's bound to be crashes all over the shop. But difficult to see it being anything other than a bunch sprint, and if Kittel is there, he's shown he can beat anyone

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Re: Giro D'Italia Cycling 2014 > May 9th - June 1st Done this on another site Giro d'Italia 2014

It is only two days away from it's start in Belfast. I was hoping to get to Belfast but it didn't work out, Dublin on Sunday will have to do, which I'm very much looking forward to. We don't have the big boys here unfortunately, Froome, Contador and to a lesser extent Valverde are waiting for the Tour. Richie Porte is a big loss as well,as he would be well in the mix to win this. The layers have it set up as a two horse race and unfortunately it looks that way, unless someone else has a brilliant week. It is my favourite of the grand tours because of the course. It always has way more mountains than the Tour which makes for great viewing in my eyes anyway. We have 3 climbs in it this year that get the legendary status acknowledgement, Passo Gavio, Stelvio on stage 17 and Mounte Zoncolan on stage 20. Zoncolan is widely regarded as being in the top 2 hardest climbs ever and this year they are climbing it from the hardest side.
Contenders
Unfortunately it looks like a 2 horse race with
Nairo Quintana
(10/11)the big favourite. He finished 2nd in the Tour last year and got stronger as it went into the 3rd week. He has the full backing of his team here, (he didn't in the Tour). The higher the mountain the better he gets and there are a lot of high mountains in this years edition. He is a steady TT and his team will be very good in the TTT. The only place I can see him lose time, is in the short punchy climbs. His form has been steady this year but not spectacular, but he really has been gearing for this. He is a worthy favourite but the 10/11 is very short. His only realistic challenger is
Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez
3/1( In my top 3 favourite cyclists.) The bridesmaid of Grand Tours. He should have won this in 2012 but for a disastrous last day TT. His TT have lost him 2 Grand Tours, he has improved in this department and the TT this year will suit him as one is a mountain TT and the other is a rolling TT. He showed good form at the start of the year but a crash in Amstel Gold set him back a bit. Still he should be ready for this, if he can stay with Quintana in the long gradual climbs he has a great chance. If he was 4/1 he would be an e/w bet to nothing as he will finish on the podium. In fact I'll be shocked if Quintana and Rodriguez don't finish 1st and 2nd.
Cadel Evans
12/1 is 3rd favourite. He has had a good year doing well in the Tour Down Under and Giro Del Trentino. He finished 3rd in this last year, but I think the boat has sailed.He is 37 and this route won't suit him and I can't see him finishing in the top 3. He would be a very good lay for me. Next in the betting is
Rigoberto Uran 16/1,
he finished 2nd in this last year, his form this year hasn't been great, poor results in Tirreno-Adriatico, Catalunya, and Romandie, as Typhoon said he did have a 4th in a ITT, so he has a small bit of form. It has to be said he had no form going into last years Giro and finished 2nd so he is one to keep on your side. He might be worth waiting till the 2nd week to back him, just to see how he goes. Domenico Pozzovivo 28/1 is next, I really like him for a bet. He has been in great form this year with a string of top 10 finishes, he was 10th in this last year and 6th in the Veulta, he has also got better at TT which is a huge boost. The route will suit him as well and he looks a great bet at 28/1 to podium. Dan Martin is next at 33/1. Dan is shown good form at the moment in the one day classics, 2nd in Fleche Wallon and he surely would have retained his Liege crown only for falling at the last corner. One day classics are not grand tours and I don't think he will be in the mix for a top 5. His ITT is still not good enough and he is also prone to a bad day in the mountains. I think he will win a stage somewhere so I will be holding out for that. He should be close to a top 10.
Michele Scarponi33/1.
Finished 4th in this last year,and his form has been okay this year, personally I think he is gone passit and there is better value at bigger prices.
Rafal Majka 66/1.
I like him, he finished 7th in this last year,his form is good this year with a 4th inthe Crieterium and 13th in Romandie after a fall .He will love the steep climbs. It's his ITT that let's him down,but he has shown improvement in this. If he has improved again 66/1 is a huge price.
Niemic 66/1.
6th in this last year and he has shown good form this year,he will love the climbs and could offer great value at 66/1. I don't think Basso, Sanchez or Hesjedal will do much. Nicholas Roche 100/1,has to get a mention. His preperation for this race hasn't been great with his knee injury,still he finished 19th in Romandie which is not bad. He finished 5th in the Veulta last year with a stage win, so he should go well here. I think he will make the top 10 so the 9/4 on him doing it is tasty. If you are looking for a few serious outsiders to give you a run for your money,you could do worse than
Durate 150/1, Cunego 200/1, Kiserlovski 200/1, Arredondo 250/1.
They will all be getting a euro e/w from me. Overall it looks a fight between Rodriguez and Quintana,but don't be surprised to see Majka, Niemic, Uran and Pozzovivo getting in the mix too
.
1pt e/w Pozzovivo win 28/1 generally. 0.5pts e/w Majka 66/1 0.5pts e/w Niemic 66/1 generally.
King of the Mountains
Quintana and Rodriguez are at the top of the market more by default than anything else as they are the 2 strongest climbers. Pirazzi is next as he won this last year,he has said that he will concentrate on GC this year so his price looks short. It is near impossible to pick someone from the start in this, but the price will be gone if you wait for the mountains. My hunch says Pierre Rolland 25/1, Sella 40/1, Rosa 50/1 and Ullisi 80/1. Actually Rosa at 50 is good odds.
1pt e/w Rolland 25/1 Lad 0.75pts e/w Sella 40/1 various 0.5pts e/w Ullisi 80/1
>bet365
1pt e/w Rosa 50/1
>Boyles
.
Points Jersey.
Viviani at 9/4 is favourite for this and rightly so .He should stay the 3 weeks and he is the 2nd best sprinter after Kittel. I have a feeling his price might drift a bit with Kittel winning the first 2 stages, so i'll wait till after then. Bouhanni could be a big danger at 9/1but there is doubts he will finish. I like Matthews at 11/1. He is in good form,will finish it and he can climb a bit which will help him get points win others can't. Luca Mezgec is in the same boat and he is a crazy 33/1. I'll be having some of that.
1pt e/w Mathews 10/1 generally 1pt e/w Mezgac 33/1 generally. Bets on Viviani and Bouhanni likely in running. Other bets
2pts Movistar top team 2/1 2pts Roche top 10 9/4 2pts Durate top 10 5/2 1pt Arredondo top 10 7/1

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Re: Giro D'Italia Cycling 2014 > May 9th - June 1st

Have taken the 1.90 at Paddypower for Marcel Kittel to win the second stage. Their offer of money back if any Italian wins' date=' basically means you're betting on Kittel to beat Matthews and Bouhani, or possibly Swift. Looks like being wet and a bit windy, and there's bound to be crashes all over the shop. But difficult to see it being anything other than a bunch sprint, and if Kittel is there, he's shown he can beat anyone[/quote'] Don't forget his biggest danger Viviani who is an Italian, so that makes it all the better, you will get your money back anyway.

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Re: Giro D'Italia Cycling 2014 > May 9th - June 1st I have backed Kittel to win the 2nd and 3rd stages with Paddy's. It is a great offer and if Kittel wins stage 2 his price will shorten for stage 3.

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Re: Giro D'Italia Cycling 2014 > May 9th - June 1st I think the Bookies have got stage one spot on unfortunately. Greenedge were priced up at 4/6 at one stage but I never got on. I think their price is about fair now. Same goes for BMC who should go well. I think there is a bit of value in Movistar at 8/1 with Malori and Castroviejo in their squad. They always seem to perform better than normal and could finish above BMC. Can anyone else win it no, Belkin, Giant and Cannondale will put good performances but won' t win it. Most bookmakers are win only with a few first 2, so no value can be got. I do like a couple of match bets though. Sky should get the better of OPQS, OPQS have none of their big guns here and sky really should be beating them. Same goes for Garmin and I expect Giant Shimano to beat them, they look on paper to have a better team. 1pt e/w Movistar 8/1 Lad 1/3 odds 2pts Giant Shimano to beat Garmin 10/11 bet 365 3pts Sky to beat OPQS evens >PP 1.5 pts Astana to beat Katusha 11/10 bet 365.

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Re: Giro D'Italia Cycling 2014 > May 9th - June 1st "Don't forget his biggest danger Viviani who is an Italian, so that makes it all the better, you will get your money back anyway." Yes. That was the reasoning behind the bet :) Really rate Mezgec, but won't he be pulling for Kittel in the first week or so, and so probably won't get too many points of his own? Great call on the points jersey in-running, hadn't thought about that. Viviani and Matthew's odds will hopefully drift during the first week and could be great bets later on. Also took Niemec e/w for the overall. Though they've just crossed the line with a poorish TTT. Might have been better waiting until after that for better odds, pfft

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Re: Giro D'Italia Cycling 2014 > May 9th - June 1st What dramatic's on day one, Ireland's big hope Dan Martin gone with a broken collarbone, really hard luck on him and Greenedge avoiding the rain to take the stage win. I'm a loss of roughly 1.4pts from yesterday with OPQS pulling a savage performance to ruin my day. Onto today I really expect Kittel 11/10 to win this, the bad weather is putting me off a small bit as at that last turn he won't be at full power with the rain and could get caught by a smaller rider. Still he is the best sprinter in the world right now with the best lead out train and he should win this. His biggest danger is Viviani 6/1 who just beat Cavendish twice in Turkey recently so his form is rock solid. Kittel is a better sprinter than Cavendish at the moment so Viviani will have toraise his game again. Bouhanni 6/1 is next in line another very good sprinter, but the races he has won this year haven't been against top opposition so will reserve judgment on him just yet. I think Matthews 16/1 will just want to finish as top Greenedge rider thus giving him the leaders jersey, that puts me off having a bet on him. I'm going to take a chance on Nizzolo 18/1 he looks to be finding form and this finish should suit him and his price is very big. If your looking for a bigger outsider Appollonio 80/1 could give you a run for your money, he is always thereabouts and if he got on the right wheel he could go close. I'm also going backing Kittel to win stage 3 now as his price will be gone tomorrow if he wins today like I think he will. Prediction 1 Kittel, 2 Viviani, 3 Nizzolo, 4 Bouhanni, 5 Mathews. 5pt win Kittel 11/10 >Boyles 1pt e/w Nizzola 18/1 >PP 0.25 pts e/w Appollonio 80/1 >PP Stage 3 3pt win Kittel 5/6 >PP

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Re: Giro D'Italia Cycling 2014 > May 9th - June 1st

That was easy and glad I am already on him for tomorrow as his price will be a fair bit shorter now after that.
Two clear bike lengths :) Have him for tomorrow as well. Shame you can't do stage bet multipliers on PP After that will will be looking at the points jersey in-running, and a couple of fanboy bets on Ben Swift next week Not sure yet about Quintana at 1.80 for the overall?

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Re: Giro D'Italia Cycling 2014 > May 9th - June 1st Good day yesterday with a 1st and 3rd and a profit of just over 8pts.Kittel powered home with ease and he looks untouchable again today. He is best priced 8/13 which is still value in my eyes, I taught he would be 1/2 or worse. He looked untouchable yesterday coming from a long way back and winning very easily. I think his biggest danger today will be Viviani, he got into a terrible position yesterday and left himself too much to do, his team didn't help him either by going on the front too early. The finish should suit him better today as it will be faster and the 9/1 available is definitely an over-reaction. I'd still have him 2nd favourite. . Bouhanni done well yesterday, but I think his price is short at 6/1. This finish wouldn't be ideal for him as I don't think he has the top speed to match Kittel or Viviani. Nizzola 12/1 did a super ride yesterday latching onto Kittel's wheel and getting 2nd, he should be very close again today and 12/1 is value. For an outside bet Ferrari 40/1 and Belletti at 80/1 look overpriced, they were living of scraps yesterday with no team as such to help them out and did well to get 5th and 6th. My bets advised yesterday 3pts Kittel 5/6 >PP 1.5 pts e/w Viviani 9/1 >PP 0.25 pts e/w Belletti 80/1 Lad

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Re: Giro D'Italia Cycling 2014 > May 9th - June 1st That was a superb effort from Kittel as he was way too far back, but he proved yet again he is better than the rest. I just wonder if Kittel might keep going and try and win the Red Jersey just like Cav did last year.

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Re: Giro D'Italia Cycling 2014 > May 9th - June 1st Up nearly 4pts from yesterday. I was about 300m from the finishing line yesterday so saw Kittel's speed at 1st hand, he was unreal, I said when he was passing me, he can't win from where he was and then he takes off like a rocket, he is so far ahead of the rest at the moment. Kittel is best priced 4/7 tomorrow, it should be a formality unless he gets into a worse position than he was in Dublin, I can't see that happening again. His team have done him no favours yet, but this short stage tomorrow should help his cause and I expect his lead out train to be better. Bouhanni 8/1is 2nd favourite, he was very disappointing yesterday as he just was in the wrong position. Viviani 9/1 finished 3rd yesterday, he picked the right wheel in Swift but couldn't pass Swift which is a worry. I like Swift 15/1 for tomorrow, Boasson Hagen gave him the perfect lead out and he had the rest in his pocket only for Kittel to come out of no where. I think we will see something similar tomorrow. There is a turn with about 400 to go tomorrow and then a drag of about 2% to the line, this should suit Swift again. Appollonio finished 4th yesterday and his odds look huge at 66/1 with PP. He got himself in a good position and more than held his own in getting 4th. One match bet I like tomorrow is Belletti to beat Farrar. Belletti crashed yesterday and I wouldn't read too much into his finishing position, onstage 2 he finished 6th with Farrar in 10th and I think he can get the better of him tomorrow. Bets 5pts Kittel 4/7 >Boyles 1pt e/w Swift 15/1 bet 365 0.25 pts e/w Appollonio 66/1 >PP 1.5pts Belletti to beat Farrar >PP

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Re: Giro D'Italia Cycling 2014 > May 9th - June 1st

That was a superb effort from Kittel as he was way too far back' date=' but he proved yet again he is better than the rest. I just wonder if Kittel might keep going and try and win the Red Jersey just like Cav did last year.[/quote'] I doubt it very much, there is not much left for him after tomorrow and he will want to be in top shape for his showdown with Cavendish in the Tour. He won't jepordise that as he is a level above Cavendish at the moment.

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Re: Giro D'Italia Cycling 2014 > May 9th - June 1st

Kittel has pulled out due to illness and glad I didn't have a bet today on him.
He pulled out before the race, money back.

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Re: Giro D'Italia Cycling 2014 > May 9th - June 1st Surely then you would get a Rule 4 on your other bets just like horse racing? Can't see a bookmaker wanting to pay out at the prices the others were when such a short price fav hasn't started.

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Re: Giro D'Italia Cycling 2014 > May 9th - June 1st

Surely then you would get a Rule 4 on your other bets just like horse racing? Can't see a bookmaker wanting to pay out at the prices the others were when such a short price fav hasn't started.
A rule 4 of course, same as horse racing.

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Re: Giro D'Italia Cycling 2014 > May 9th - June 1st What a farce that was, as I said earlier glad I left well alone got to think they shouldn't have even been racing the last lap in the end.

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Re: Giro D'Italia Cycling 2014 > May 9th - June 1st Unbettable stage for me tomorrow. Could be a GC contender, puncheur, Matthews or Swift. Should be a cracker though! More long term, have gone for Quintana to win the Giro/Froome to win Tour De France double. Not particularly imaginative and not great odds at 2/1ish. But will pay out, barring disasters Can't belive the odds for Kittel to win the first stage of the Tour De France, 3.00 at Paddypower ! Will be a long time before we see odds like that for him again in a sprint stage

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Re: Giro D'Italia Cycling 2014 > May 9th - June 1st

I reckon Cav might well beat him in Harrogate.
Unless Cavendish can find another level not a hope. Kittel will eat him alive, if it is the Cavendish we saw in the 1st stage of California that turns up.

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Re: Giro D'Italia Cycling 2014 > May 9th - June 1st Farce of a stage yesterday with crashes everywhere, both my picks crashed Swift and Appollonio and Kittel was a non runner (rider) so money back, the match bet came in so got out for a tiny loss of 0.25pts. Today we have our first uphill finish at it is where the real racing starts. It is not a hard finish,but we should get some excitement at least. It is hard to predict what kind of rider is going to win today, will it be the sprinter that can climb e.g Mathews, Swift, EBH, Gatto or the real climbers that can sprint e.g Rodriguez, Uran, [/b]Evans, Arredondo or the puncher classic type riders e.g Ullisi, Moreno, Battaglin and Felline.. We have a mixture of all those at the top of the betting. I think if Katusha and BMC ride hard coming into the last climb they will burn off the sprinters. The finish might be a bit too easy for Rodriguez today but he needs to get time back, I can see Katusha riding hard. He was put up at 22/1 with PP yesterday evening so grabed as much of that as I could, he was 9/1 with them a few minutes later, the bookies are a funny auld crowd. There is mixed views whether Mathews 10/1 can stay at the front for the final sprint, if he is there he wins, but I'm of the view he won't be there. Of the sprinters I'd much rather take a chance on Boasson Hagen 25/1 at twice the odds. He showed good form in Dublin and if he can get back to anywhere to his old form he will go very close. Ulissi is a worthy favourite on previous form but the price is too short in my eyes, I'd much rather back a similar type rider with the same chance at way bigger odds. I like Battaglin 20/1 here, his odds should be way shorter here, he won a similar type stage in this last year and his team will be going all out to have him on the front. I'd be shocked if he is not near the front at the finish. If you are looking for a winner at huge odds, Mezgac 100/1, he is a sprinter who can climb and he would give Mathews a run for his money at the finish. Majka at 200/1 would be my other. Prediction,1 Rodriguez,2 EBH, 3 Battaglin, 4 Ulissi 5 Felline. For my own bets I have to put up Rodriguez at 22/1 but I wouldn't put anyone off backing him at 12/1 2 pts e/w Rodriguez 22/1 >PP 1pt e/w Boasson Hagen25/1 BV 1 pt e/w Battaglin 20/1 >PP 0.25 pts e/w Mezgec 100/1 generally.

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