Lodge's Thread

[salmonman]

Re: Lodge's Thread Good luck, your due a winner.

[Steven6177]

Re: Lodge's Thread Honeyballs gf rides at Taunton, the big positive is it ran well when the stable had a virus and the horses weren't being asked a lot,with regal encore running Keen but well and after today's winner,really fancy ur selection,good luck :)

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Thanks guys, having a few hitting the crossbar at the minute. Don't mind if it means i find a few winners at Cheltenham! Interestingly Honeyball has a 24% strike rate at Plumpton which isn't a bad stat either, hopefully i'll get a decent run for my money tomorrow.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Cheltenham is nearly here :nana Surprisingly there is nothing that sticks out apart from this one. 5.15 - Cheltenham - Buthelezi 1pt @ 20/1 Boylesports Buthelezi's chase form is quite hard to analyse simply because he has ran in some very small fields, but i feel he could well be ahead of his mark. The 6yo gelding was a useful flat performer at his best running in the St. Ledger for John Gosden. I wasn't convinced by his hurdling last season but he looks to be a useful chaser in the making. His chase debut came in November at Warwick where he was a slightly disappointing 4th in a race won by Balder Succes. He certainly learned from the experience though, giving the useful Valco De Touzaine a very good race at Leicester next time out. He matched that form in a 3 runner handicap next time in what was effectively a match between him and Une Artiste, getting the better of the Nicky Henderson odds-on favourite by half a length but with a bit in hand. His jumping has been quite impressive in his most recent 2 starts something which bodes well for the testing fences at Cheltenham and tomorrows trip looks about spot on he won over 2m 4f last time out and ran over further when hurdling. He hasn't been seen since that Plumpton win, meaning he comes into this off a 99 day break. I wouldn't be too worried by that though, he's won off a 200+ day break twice before and its likely he has been waiting for some decent ground. Also its worth noting he is eligible for a £60,000 bonus if winning this race so John Ferguson could just have been protecting his handicap mark of 134 which looks fairly lenient to me. I placed the bet with Boylesports as their refunding bets if your horse finishes 2nd to a McCoy winner, in this race he rides Pendra and although i dont fancy him he is the current favourite.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

1 bet for Cheltenham eve: 5.00 - Plumpton - Jaja De Jau 1pt @ 13/2 Paddypower Jaja De Jau probably looks value to overturn the form with Conusker from last time out. The 5yo mare was beaten by 15L back in 3rd but does have a 21lb swing in the weights tomorrow. It was her seasonal re-appearance and she travelled eye catchingly well under a patient ride from her conditional jockey. Turning for home she looked a big danger to the eventual winner trading at 2.6 in running however she failed to quicken and flattened out down the straight finishing 3rd. Considering it was her first run in 189 days and the ground was extremely testing it looked a fair effort though, and i certainly feel she'll improve for the better ground she encounters tomorrow. She was campaigned throughout last summer and ran some decent races including a close 2nd off this mark so this would also suggests she's prefer a sound surface. She's still a relatively unexposed 5yo so has some scope for improvement and is on a career low mark. The yard form would probably be the main worry. Although Anthony Honeyball did manage his first winner of the year today and it was ridden by tomorrows jockey Choc Thornton who replaces claimer Rachel Green, Choc's won on 3 of his last 4 rides so is in the winners at the moment himself.

What a load of rubbish :lol still better than Si Bien who was backed off the boards. Staked: 142pts Returned: 246.72ts P/L: +104.72pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 4.00 - Cheltenham - Highland Retreat 1pt @ 16/1 BetFred (Money back as Free bet if Quevega wins) Maybe i'm silly taking on Quevega, but i think this race is filled with potential improvers that could run her very close. I've gone with Highland Retreat who really impressed me last time out. The 7yo is unbeaten this season and while the form of her first 2 wins this season wouldn't strike me as the type of form needed to win a race of this kind, theres no knocking her most recent win. She travelled ever so strongly over 3m at Ascot getting some really top horses in trouble a long way home. She was pushed very hard down the straight by Carole's Spirit though and battled very gamely to win by 2L and was well on top at the finish. In behind that day were Mickie, Prima Porta and Utopie Des Bordes who are all very useful performers in their own right and wouldn't look out of place in this field at all. In fact Prima Porta got very close to the Cockey Sparrow earlier this season. She drops back in trip slightly tomorrow and fact she stays further is definately a positive in my opinion, you clearly need stamina to win this race, which puts me off Cockney Sparrow slightly. I like the fact she's had a short break since, her race last time would have taken quite abit out of her so the fact she comes in fresh is a big positive. Noel Fehily rides and i'm a massive fan of his, hopefully he has a good week.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Cracking run from Ma Filleule there, slight form boost for Highland Retreat who beat her over hurdles earlier this season.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

4.00 - Cheltenham - Highland Retreat 1pt @ 16/1 BetFred (Money back as Free bet if Quevega wins) Maybe i'm silly taking on Quevega, but i think this race is filled with potential improvers that could run her very close. I've gone with Highland Retreat who really impressed me last time out. The 7yo is unbeaten this season and while the form of her first 2 wins this season wouldn't strike me as the type of form needed to win a race of this kind, theres no knocking her most recent win. She travelled ever so strongly over 3m at Ascot getting some really top horses in trouble a long way home. She was pushed very hard down the straight by Carole's Spirit though and battled very gamely to win by 2L and was well on top at the finish. In behind that day were Mickie, Prima Porta and Utopie Des Bordes who are all very useful performers in their own right and wouldn't look out of place in this field at all. In fact Prima Porta got very close to the Cockey Sparrow earlier this season. She drops back in trip slightly tomorrow and fact she stays further is definately a positive in my opinion, you clearly need stamina to win this race, which puts me off Cockney Sparrow slightly. I like the fact she's had a short break since, her race last time would have taken quite abit out of her so the fact she comes in fresh is a big positive. Noel Fehily rides and i'm a massive fan of his, hopefully he has a good week.

Cheltenham is nearly here :nana Surprisingly there is nothing that sticks out apart from this one. 5.15 - Cheltenham - Buthelezi 1pt @ 20/1 Boylesports Buthelezi's chase form is quite hard to analyse simply because he has ran in some very small fields, but i feel he could well be ahead of his mark. The 6yo gelding was a useful flat performer at his best running in the St. Ledger for John Gosden. I wasn't convinced by his hurdling last season but he looks to be a useful chaser in the making. His chase debut came in November at Warwick where he was a slightly disappointing 4th in a race won by Balder Succes. He certainly learned from the experience though, giving the useful Valco De Touzaine a very good race at Leicester next time out. He matched that form in a 3 runner handicap next time in what was effectively a match between him and Une Artiste, getting the better of the Nicky Henderson odds-on favourite by half a length but with a bit in hand. His jumping has been quite impressive in his most recent 2 starts something which bodes well for the testing fences at Cheltenham and tomorrows trip looks about spot on he won over 2m 4f last time out and ran over further when hurdling. He hasn't been seen since that Plumpton win, meaning he comes into this off a 99 day break. I wouldn't be too worried by that though, he's won off a 200+ day break twice before and its likely he has been waiting for some decent ground. Also its worth noting he is eligible for a £60,000 bonus if winning this race so John Ferguson could just have been protecting his handicap mark of 134 which looks fairly lenient to me. I placed the bet with Boylesports as their refunding bets if your horse finishes 2nd to a McCoy winner, in this race he rides Pendra and although i dont fancy him he is the current favourite.

Disappointing day really. Highland Retreat ran okay probably did abit too much up front, what a performance from Quevega though, no-one was beating her. Got a free bet for tomorrow atleast too... Buthelezi was given a strange ride from O'Regan, bounced out in front, set a blistering pace and was knackered after a lap. Don't see the point in even entering a horse if your going to do that? Thankfully i managed to find Midnight Prayer which made my money back! Hoping tomorrows selections run abit better, will post write ups shortly... Staked: 144pts Returned: 246.72ts P/L: +102.72pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 1.30 - Cheltenham - Lieutenant Colonel 1pt @ 14/1 Coral I was quietly pleased with the impressive performance of Vatour and the creditable run of Wicklow Brave today as there form ties in closely with Lieutenant Colonel who i fancy for the Neptune. The 5yo has clearly been taking on some of the best novices over 2m so his form behind the 2 mentioned above reads very well. He steps up to 2m 4f which appears as if it may suit, as he doesn’t quite have the turn of foot to be a top 2 miler but keeps on really well. I don’t think he’s a ground dependant horse and at around 14/1 he looks quite a big price in my opinion. The main danger in my mind is Faugheen and the way the Mullins horses ran today it would not surprise me if he hoses up, i'm just tempted to take him on at the prices though. 5.15 - Cheltenham - Our Kaempfer 1pt @ 33/1 BetVictor I’m quite keen on one of the outsiders in the bumper and that is Our Kaempfer. He could only manage to finish 3rd in his last start, which came over C&D but when you take into account that one of the horses that beat him was Red Sherlock he deserves more respect than his price probably gives him. He was only beaten 1L or so and the other horse just ahead was Carningli who won his first 2 bumpers and is also pretty useful, the trio were clear of the rest. To me that is really smart form, Red Sherlock is unbeaten in 6 starts and goes off 2nd fav in the Neptune tomorrow. The way he stayed on up the hill was quite impressive in my opinion and its certainly a positive to know he will cope with the course which is an unknown for most. I feel the better ground tomorrow will be absolutely perfect for him (won his first bumper on good/firm ground) and at 33/1 looks very big despite him not fitting many of the trends. Charlie Longsdon’s 5yo hasn’t been seen for quite a while, he was entered in a listed bumper last month but didn’t run on account of the ground i believe. For what its worth Longsdon is also quoted as saying 'he’ll improve a stone from the November run’ and he seems fairly sweet on his chances. Noel Fehily rides which is also a big plus and i feel this one could surprise a few.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

1.30 - Cheltenham - Lieutenant Colonel 1pt @ 14/1 Coral I was quietly pleased with the impressive performance of Vatour and the creditable run of Wicklow Brave today as there form ties in closely with Lieutenant Colonel who i fancy for the Neptune. The 5yo has clearly been taking on some of the best novices over 2m so his form behind the 2 mentioned above reads very well. He steps up to 2m 4f which appears as if it may suit, as he doesn’t quite have the turn of foot to be a top 2 miler but keeps on really well. I don’t think he’s a ground dependant horse and at around 14/1 he looks quite a big price in my opinion. The main danger in my mind is Faugheen and the way the Mullins horses ran today it would not surprise me if he hoses up, i'm just tempted to take him on at the prices though. 5.15 - Cheltenham - Our Kaempfer 1pt @ 33/1 BetVictor I’m quite keen on one of the outsiders in the bumper and that is Our Kaempfer. He could only manage to finish 3rd in his last start, which came over C&D but when you take into account that one of the horses that beat him was Red Sherlock he deserves more respect than his price probably gives him. He was only beaten 1L or so and the other horse just ahead was Carningli who won his first 2 bumpers and is also pretty useful, the trio were clear of the rest. To me that is really smart form, Red Sherlock is unbeaten in 6 starts and goes off 2nd fav in the Neptune tomorrow. The way he stayed on up the hill was quite impressive in my opinion and its certainly a positive to know he will cope with the course which is an unknown for most. I feel the better ground tomorrow will be absolutely perfect for him (won his first bumper on good/firm ground) and at 33/1 looks very big despite him not fitting many of the trends. Charlie Longsdon’s 5yo hasn’t been seen for quite a while, he was entered in a listed bumper last month but didn’t run on account of the ground i believe. For what its worth Longsdon is also quoted as saying 'he’ll improve a stone from the November run’ and he seems fairly sweet on his chances. Noel Fehily rides which is also a big plus and i feel this one could surprise a few.

And thats why i don't get too involved with Cheltenham :lol Both ran very well for a long way then faded out of it, not had any bets for tomorrow yet, considering my options... Staked: 146pts Returned: 246.72ts P/L: +100.72pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Looking further a field from Cheltenham tomorrow: 5.35 - Towcester - Fidelor - 1pt @ 5/1 Bet365 I thought Fidelor might run abit better than he did last time at Towcester. He's shown bits and pieces of ability for Alex Hales this season and i though the application of blinkers and drop back to 2m might suit him but it wasn't the case. Tomorrows he is back up in trip and pitched into an ever weaker race and i reckon he has a decent chance. He could also be of more interest because he's back on a sounder surface, his only win came of gd/soft and one of his only other placed runs was also on good ground. His handicap mark is now down below 90 and for him that is a career low, having been placed off marks as high as 105 in the past. He wears a first time tongue tie and that could also aid him as his only win came wearing first time cheekpieces. The 2 Anthony Middleton runners look rather short to me but it does atleast mean that Fidelor is a fair price at 5/1.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Not had a bet at Cheltenham today, only one that nearly tempted me was Third Intention in the Byrne Group Plate. Gonna leave today though and just enjoy watching it!

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

Looking further a field from Cheltenham tomorrow: 5.35 - Towcester - Fidelor - 1pt @ 5/1 Bet365 I thought Fidelor might run abit better than he did last time at Towcester. He's shown bits and pieces of ability for Alex Hales this season and i though the application of blinkers and drop back to 2m might suit him but it wasn't the case. Tomorrows he is back up in trip and pitched into an ever weaker race and i reckon he has a decent chance. He could also be of more interest because he's back on a sounder surface, his only win came of gd/soft and one of his only other placed runs was also on good ground. His handicap mark is now down below 90 and for him that is a career low, having been placed off marks as high as 105 in the past. He wears a first time tongue tie and that could also aid him as his only win came wearing first time cheekpieces. The 2 Anthony Middleton runners look rather short to me but it does atleast mean that Fidelor is a fair price at 5/1.

What a cracking ride from Killiam Moore there! looked beat but never gave up... Fidelor gets up by a very small margin :ok wasn't overly confident though as he was weak in the market today. Staked: 147pts Returned: 252.72ts P/L: +105.72pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 4.00 - Cheltenham - Berties Dream 1pt @ 16/1 Bet365 What a puzzle this is to solve! I think its a really open race and it may pay to look outside the first 3 in the betting. Berties Dream looks an interesting contender and has been abit of a festival regular over the past few years. The 11yo has been a top class hurdler in years gone by and won on the Friday of the festival back in 2010 when taking the Albert Bartlett. He was back the following year to take on the likes of Big Bucks in the world hurdle and was a creditable 6th. He was back yet again last year and outran his odds in the Pertemps when 5th to Holywell. Cheltenham form is obviously a big plus, so thats definitely one thing in his favour albeit over hurdles. He hasn’t quite proved as good over fences, but comes into this off the back of 2 easy point wins. He’ll like the ground, and has plenty of stamina for the trip. Gina Andrews has been booked to ride, having a good jockey in this race is extremely important and i’ve been impressed with what i have seen of her. Overall i think he’s a live outsider and at 16/1 i’ll have a little play.

[petrache]

Re: Lodge's Thread many things to learn from this thread,i,m following this with big interest.

[Steven6177]

Re: Lodge's Thread Great winner lodge,keep them coming,had best cheltham ever,lead king of tipsters sportinglife by 300 points so hopefully pick up the free £100 bet of sky,already picked £20 up and had over 10 winners with western warhorse my best,only bet small but up a grand,but follow ur thead as a given :)

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

Great winner lodge' date='keep them coming,had best cheltham ever,lead king of tipsters sportinglife by 300 points so hopefully pick up the free £100 bet of sky,already picked £20 up and had over 10 winners with western warhorse my best,only bet small but up a grand,but follow ur thead as a given :)[/quote'] Good to hear mate. Any tips for tomorrow? :lol Glad i've not got too involved with Cheltenham this week, i find it abit tougher than the AW lol

[salmonman]

Re: Lodge's Thread Thanks for the winner Lodge.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

4.00 - Cheltenham - Berties Dream 1pt @ 16/1 Bet365 What a puzzle this is to solve! I think its a really open race and it may pay to look outside the first 3 in the betting. Berties Dream looks an interesting contender and has been abit of a festival regular over the past few years. The 11yo has been a top class hurdler in years gone by and won on the Friday of the festival back in 2010 when taking the Albert Bartlett. He was back the following year to take on the likes of Big Bucks in the world hurdle and was a creditable 6th. He was back yet again last year and outran his odds in the Pertemps when 5th to Holywell. Cheltenham form is obviously a big plus, so thats definitely one thing in his favour albeit over hurdles. He hasn’t quite proved as good over fences, but comes into this off the back of 2 easy point wins. He’ll like the ground, and has plenty of stamina for the trip. Gina Andrews has been booked to ride, having a good jockey in this race is extremely important and i’ve been impressed with what i have seen of her. Overall i think he’s a live outsider and at 16/1 i’ll have a little play.

Never really got into it i'm afraid and was beaten a long way out. As much as i love watching Cheltenham its not my idea of a punters paradise lol Back to the AW tomorrow i think... Staked: 148pts Returned: 252.72ts P/L: +104.72pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 3.50 - Uttoxeter - Goulanes 1pt @ 8/1 Stan James David Pipe has won the last 3 renewals of this race and its probably no coincidence that the 2 i liked in this were trained by him. I felt that Junior was interesting, purely for the fact its the first time in ages he hasn't had to lug a huge weight around in a race like this. However i have sided for Goulanes who does have his risks attached, but looks very well handicapped on the best of his form. He won a Grade 2 novice race on his chasing debut just over a year ago and then backed that up with a fair 6th in the RSA and a 2nd in a good novice race towards the end of the season. This year hasn't been quite as good, you can forgive him his re-appearance when down the field in a competitive Cheltenham handicap, but he was then pulled up in the Welsh national which was his next race. He hasn't been seen since but you can probably view that as a positive, as he comes into tough race like this fresh and he has won off the back of a break before. He's also been given a chance by the handicapper being dropped 8lb since the start of the season, meaning he gets into this race off a feather light weight of 10-3. He wears blinkers and tongue tie and hopefully they'll bring about an improvement of some sort. Richard Johnson rides which is a massive positive, he had a good week riding a winner in these colours in the Arkle.

[Steven6177]

Re: Lodge's Thread Won the comp,finished on £110 free bets,went up today and had nicholls at 12/1,really fancied on his own,and was gutted at finish,was in best mate stand losing my voice,won a trip to gasks yard tomor up warminister with coral club so wil keep u informed with any they like,really fancy pipes tomor good luck

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Well done. Unlucky with On His Own, felt abit sorry for David Casey in the stewards room, what an amazing race though. Enjoy tomorrow, i'll be sat watching C4 for the 5th day running :lol

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

3.50 - Uttoxeter - Goulanes 1pt @ 8/1 Stan James David Pipe has won the last 3 renewals of this race and its probably no coincidence that the 2 i liked in this were trained by him. I felt that Junior was interesting, purely for the fact its the first time in ages he hasn't had to lug a huge weight around in a race like this. However i have sided for Goulanes who does have his risks attached, but looks very well handicapped on the best of his form. He won a Grade 2 novice race on his chasing debut just over a year ago and then backed that up with a fair 6th in the RSA and a 2nd in a good novice race towards the end of the season. This year hasn't been quite as good, you can forgive him his re-appearance when down the field in a competitive Cheltenham handicap, but he was then pulled up in the Welsh national which was his next race. He hasn't been seen since but you can probably view that as a positive, as he comes into tough race like this fresh and he has won off the back of a break before. He's also been given a chance by the handicapper being dropped 8lb since the start of the season, meaning he gets into this race off a feather light weight of 10-3. He wears blinkers and tongue tie and hopefully they'll bring about an improvement of some sort. Richard Johnson rides which is a massive positive, he had a good week riding a winner in these colours in the Arkle.

Should have had more on that one, the wonder of hindsight eh?! Staked: 149pts Returned: 261.72ts P/L: +112.72pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Bet for tomorrow: 3.50 - Ffos Las - Hold Court 1pt @ 9/1 Bet365 Hold Court certainly isn't a horse to hold the most confidence in but on a going day he is very capable and his trainer has held him in fairly high regard in the past. He's slipped down to a lowly mark of 115 (was rated 132 this time last year) and while he has put in a series of tame efforts this season i reckon he could be worth chancing. He didn't run too bad when beaten 11L on his penultimate start and after being well backed last time he was a well held 4th. Its worth noting the form of that race has worked out exceptionally well though, with Baltimore Rock going on to win the Imperial Cup and the other 2 horses ahead of him also running well (Canadian Diamond a neck 2nd next time and Whispering Harry scoring at Newbery). He steps back up in trip to 2m 4f and i feel that should be his ideal distance, his last win came over this sort of trip. One thing which could be significant to his chances is the dryer ground. All 4 career wins have come on good/good-sft ground therefore you can give him a slight excuse for some of his recent efforts. I nearly backed him last time at around the 10/1 mark, by the time of the off he was a 9/4 shot suggesting to me someone in the know thinks he's well in. Paul Moloney rides so considering Evan Williams has 3 in this is its fair to assume he is the yards best opportunity of a winner. A very competitive race on paper but if Hold Court can get back to anywhere near the level of his novice form he'd win this no problem

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Think that'll be the only selection for tomorrow, bit of an all or nothing one!

[Steven6177]

Re: Lodge's Thread Went up today lodge,and he's installed a high attitude tread mill,like runners going to Kenya etc.b interesting to c what the results r like only spent 5 mins in there and head span,says only one in England but 4 in Europe,nice little set up and saw my fav,street power in field retired,needs a new home if u have the space:)did watch and saw a unnamed 2yo filly that they think could b very good, nice winner today:) had a little on myself,well done

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

Bet for tomorrow: 3.50 - Ffos Las - Hold Court 1pt @ 9/1 Bet365 Hold Court certainly isn't a horse to hold the most confidence in but on a going day he is very capable and his trainer has held him in fairly high regard in the past. He's slipped down to a lowly mark of 115 (was rated 132 this time last year) and while he has put in a series of tame efforts this season i reckon he could be worth chancing. He didn't run too bad when beaten 11L on his penultimate start and after being well backed last time he was a well held 4th. Its worth noting the form of that race has worked out exceptionally well though, with Baltimore Rock going on to win the Imperial Cup and the other 2 horses ahead of him also running well (Canadian Diamond a neck 2nd next time and Whispering Harry scoring at Newbery). He steps back up in trip to 2m 4f and i feel that should be his ideal distance, his last win came over this sort of trip. One thing which could be significant to his chances is the dryer ground. All 4 career wins have come on good/good-sft ground therefore you can give him a slight excuse for some of his recent efforts. I nearly backed him last time at around the 10/1 mark, by the time of the off he was a 9/4 shot suggesting to me someone in the know thinks he's well in. Paul Moloney rides so considering Evan Williams has 3 in this is its fair to assume he is the yards best opportunity of a winner. A very competitive race on paper but if Hold Court can get back to anywhere near the level of his novice form he'd win this no problem

Non Runner - Self Cert (Tempurature) I'll keep an eye out for him in the next few weeks

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread For abit of interest in todays racing i'll chance my arm with another selection: 3.05 - Carlisle - Most Honourable 1pt @ 14/1 Skybet There are questions over plenty of the runners in this field so i feel it may just be worth taking a chance on one of the outsiders Most Honourable. The 4yo has shown bits and pieces of form to date that would give him a chance on his handicap debut. He won a juvenile hurdle back in December at Catterick, out-battling Morning With Ivan up the run in who has subsequently scored twice. His 2 runs since haven't really been as good. Particularly the first when he was a disappointing favourite upped in trip, the fact he was beaten so far suggests something wasn't right though, an obvious excuse would be the ground. He then ran in the Scottish Triumph hurdle trial won by Broughton, to be beaten 24L was certainly no disgrace as he wasn't given a hard time. As you'd expect the form of that race is pretty solid, Broughton went off 3rd fav in the Triumph and the 2nd horse Clarcam was running a corker in the Fred Winter until falling late on. He's been allotted and opening mark of 116, its hard to make a case for that being an overly lenient opening mark but at the same time i don't think any of the horses in this field are that well handicapped. One thing that is certainly in his favour is the ground, interestingly his win came on good ground, and his 2 subsequent runs have been on the bottomless ground we've experienced most of this winter. He steps up to 2m 4f, its hard to say whether it will improve him, the way he won his race back in December certainly suggested he would get further. Its also worth noting he gets into this race off a nice low weight with Adam Nichol claiming 5lb (17.31% strike rate) and a hefty weight for age allowance. All in all, not a bet to put your mortgage on but i'd hope he'd outrun odds of 14/1 if he gets the trip.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

For abit of interest in todays racing i'll chance my arm with another selection: 3.05 - Carlisle - Most Honourable 1pt @ 14/1 Skybet There are questions over plenty of the runners in this field so i feel it may just be worth taking a chance on one of the outsiders Most Honourable. The 4yo has shown bits and pieces of form to date that would give him a chance on his handicap debut. He won a juvenile hurdle back in December at Catterick, out-battling Morning With Ivan up the run in who has subsequently scored twice. His 2 runs since haven't really been as good. Particularly the first when he was a disappointing favourite upped in trip, the fact he was beaten so far suggests something wasn't right though, an obvious excuse would be the ground. He then ran in the Scottish Triumph hurdle trial won by Broughton, to be beaten 24L was certainly no disgrace as he wasn't given a hard time. As you'd expect the form of that race is pretty solid, Broughton went off 3rd fav in the Triumph and the 2nd horse Clarcam was running a corker in the Fred Winter until falling late on. He's been allotted and opening mark of 116, its hard to make a case for that being an overly lenient opening mark but at the same time i don't think any of the horses in this field are that well handicapped. One thing that is certainly in his favour is the ground, interestingly his win came on good ground, and his 2 subsequent runs have been on the bottomless ground we've experienced most of this winter. He steps up to 2m 4f, its hard to say whether it will improve him, the way he won his race back in December certainly suggested he would get further. Its also worth noting he gets into this race off a nice low weight with Adam Nichol claiming 5lb (17.31% strike rate) and a hefty weight for age allowance. All in all, not a bet to put your mortgage on but i'd hope he'd outrun odds of 14/1 if he gets the trip.

A shade disappointing, he ran okay just didn't really quicken, must have been beaten about 10L. Got a couple of AW cards to get stuck into for tomorrow now which is good though. Staked: 150pts Returned: 261.72ts P/L: +111.72pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread First 2 for tomorrow: 4.20 - Kempton - Yeeoow 1pt @ 5/1 Bet365 Yeeoow hardly looked a winner in waiting last time but i actually thought he showed enough to warrant a bet tomorrow. First of all it was his first run since October so he was probably abit rusty even though he has a good record fresh. He was drawn out wide at Lingfield, over a trip he’s never won at and in a much better race than this. He was caught out very wide throughout and made up as much ground as could be expected in the straight, finishing beaten 4L by Grey Mirage. Tomorrow he drops back to 6f (only distance he has won over), and also returns to Kempton, where he is 2 from 4 over C&D (2nd on both of the other starts). He has also dropped to his last winning of 90, which he won off last May and he has Martin Harley back in the saddle, who has been aboard for all of his 3 career wins. This class 3 race looks much less competitive that the 0-105 handicap he ran in last time and i expect him to run well with plenty in his favour. 5.00 - Wolverhampton - Delightful Sleep 1pt @ 4/1 Bet365 Delightful Sleep was a big eye-catcher for me last time under a weak ride from an in-experienced apprentice so if Eoin Walsh can get a better tune out of him i expect him to be hard to beat here. He finished 3rd only beaten by 2 in-form rivals, but also had a subsequent winner in behind and the form looks strong for this grade. Tomorrows race looks slightly easier and Delightful Sleep runs off his last winning mark of 57. I think the step up to the 9.5f at Wolverhampton will suit as he was slightly outpaced when Reggie Bond kicked for home last time but still appeared to be going well down the straight. His record over this exact C&D in handicaps is: 3-1-3. I’m not out to knock the young jockey that rode him last time (she’s only 16) but had he been ridden by a jockey who was abit stronger in the finish i reckon he’d have won in all honesty. Eoin Walsh takes over and he has 18% strike rate so far this year.