Lodge's Thread

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread I must admit tomorrows racing is rather uninspiring, i do have one selection however: 4.00 - Huntingdon - Mission To Mars 1pt @ 10/1 Bet365 I thought Mission To Mars showed enough in his 2 most recent runs to warrant respect off an opening mark of 108. The 5yo ran in a warm novice hurdle on his penultimate start and although he was ultimately well beaten in 8th the form is very strong. The winner was Wilde Blue Yonder who is fancied by some for the Supreme, and in behind him were useful novices like Seedling, Tiqris and Sign Of Victory so its no wonder he didn't get close to them. Nto he ran to a similar level, getting within 9L of the mid 130's rated chaser Anay Turge and the only other runner to beat him was the 122 rated Vivacchio of Venetia Williams. As i've mentioned he's been allotted a mark of 108, which on the basis of his 2 most recent runs probably looks fair. He's open to improvement and the extra furlong tomorrow will only probably play to his strenghs i feel. It'll be interesting to see how he's ridden, he's made the running in his starts so far and he could certainly make it a test if he did so tomorrow. He'll handle the ground and at 10/1 he looks the value in the field to me.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

I must admit tomorrows racing is rather uninspiring, i do have one selection however: 4.00 - Huntingdon - Mission To Mars 1pt @ 10/1 Bet365 I thought Mission To Mars showed enough in his 2 most recent runs to warrant respect off an opening mark of 108. The 5yo ran in a warm novice hurdle on his penultimate start and although he was ultimately well beaten in 8th the form is very strong. The winner was Wilde Blue Yonder who is fancied by some for the Supreme, and in behind him were useful novices like Seedling, Tiqris and Sign Of Victory so its no wonder he didn't get close to them. Nto he ran to a similar level, getting within 9L of the mid 130's rated chaser Anay Turge and the only other runner to beat him was the 122 rated Vivacchio of Venetia Williams. As i've mentioned he's been allotted a mark of 108, which on the basis of his 2 most recent runs probably looks fair. He's open to improvement and the extra furlong tomorrow will only probably play to his strenghs i feel. It'll be interesting to see how he's ridden, he's made the running in his starts so far and he could certainly make it a test if he did so tomorrow. He'll handle the ground and at 10/1 he looks the value in the field to me.

Credible run from Mission To Mars. He had no chance with the runaway winner who has defied an 11lb hike in the weights in farcical fashion. He was only a neck behind the 2nd placed horse and they were well clear of the rest. Considering he went from the front and set a strong gallop he probably deserves more credit than the bare result. Staked: 130pts Returned: 236.72ts P/L: +106.72pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 4.05 - Southwell - Weather Babe 1pt @ 13/2 Coral I wasn’t sure whether to back this one or not. On the basis of her penultimate run in a listed race she really should be capable of winning a handicap of 120, but the fact she is 14lb above her winning mark from November does put me off slightly. Her penultimate run in listed company resulted in a 1L 2nd to Highland Retreat, who subsequently won a grade 2 hurdle against some really top mares and is now rated 144. She also had Ma Filleule in behind that day who is also a 140+ rated mare. She was only rated 110 when running in that event so her mark suffered as a result and she was raised 12lbs. She then ran in a competitive handicap where she was fairly well beaten, but probably deserves more credit than her bare result. I’m not sure she liked the very testing going (all of her runs to date have been on good/soft ground) so i’m willing to give her another chance on a sounder surface. She’s been dropped 2lb in the handicap which allows her into a 0-120 race which will be an easier task than her last couple of runs on paper. David Pipe has started 2014 in cracking form and Tom Scudamore rides.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 2.40 - Kempton - Darnathean 1pt @ 12/1 Paddypower Interesting little race, i’ve gone for Darnathean who in my opinion has been running over slightly insufficient trips of late. He ran his best race for a while over 10f at this course a few outings ago but has been racing back over 6/7f since. He was an eye-catcher in a messy race last time at Lingfield, where he was caught way too far back going into the final couple of furlongs like most of the field. Despite being taken wide he made up tons of ground in the final furlong or so to finish a 2L 4th (recorded quickest final furlong time). He steps back up to 1m tomorrow and that should be a more suitable trip in my opinion, he has won over the distance before and Kempton is the only AW track he has won at. He looks rather well handicapped on the best of his 2013 form too. Having won off a 4lb higher mark in June and also finishing a neck 2nd off an 11lb higher mark the following month. This looks to be marginally weaker than some of the races he has been competing and i expect this to help his chances too. Jockey booking can be seen as a positive also. Sean Levey rides and he’s had 2 winner from his 5 rides for this yard in the past year. at a double figure price he looks worthy of a bet in my opinion. The main danger will probably be Spirit Of Gondree who was 2nd over C&D on Weds, he would have gone even closer with a clear run so must be respected. On a side note i did also consider Gabrials Wawa who is also looking attractively handicapped. I felt he showed signs of potential comeback on his first start for his new yard last time, and didn’t looks to be given the hardest of times by his jockey. He’s back over a C&D where his record is 1/1 and is 13lb below his last winning mark (less than 1 year ago), he looks like a horse that will be gambled on very soon imo.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

4.05 - Southwell - Weather Babe 1pt @ 13/2 Coral I wasn’t sure whether to back this one or not. On the basis of her penultimate run in a listed race she really should be capable of winning a handicap of 120, but the fact she is 14lb above her winning mark from November does put me off slightly. Her penultimate run in listed company resulted in a 1L 2nd to Highland Retreat, who subsequently won a grade 2 hurdle against some really top mares and is now rated 144. She also had Ma Filleule in behind that day who is also a 140+ rated mare. She was only rated 110 when running in that event so her mark suffered as a result and she was raised 12lbs. She then ran in a competitive handicap where she was fairly well beaten, but probably deserves more credit than her bare result. I’m not sure she liked the very testing going (all of her runs to date have been on good/soft ground) so i’m willing to give her another chance on a sounder surface. She’s been dropped 2lb in the handicap which allows her into a 0-120 race which will be an easier task than her last couple of runs on paper. David Pipe has started 2014 in cracking form and Tom Scudamore rides.

Weather Babe is a non runner on account of going. Declared Soft, heavy in places at Southwell today. Still got Darnathean at Kempton, may be back with another bet

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

2.40 - Kempton - Darnathean 1pt @ 12/1 Paddypower Interesting little race, i’ve gone for Darnathean who in my opinion has been running over slightly insufficient trips of late. He ran his best race for a while over 10f at this course a few outings ago but has been racing back over 6/7f since. He was an eye-catcher in a messy race last time at Lingfield, where he was caught way too far back going into the final couple of furlongs like most of the field. Despite being taken wide he made up tons of ground in the final furlong or so to finish a 2L 4th (recorded quickest final furlong time). He steps back up to 1m tomorrow and that should be a more suitable trip in my opinion, he has won over the distance before and Kempton is the only AW track he has won at. He looks rather well handicapped on the best of his 2013 form too. Having won off a 4lb higher mark in June and also finishing a neck 2nd off an 11lb higher mark the following month. This looks to be marginally weaker than some of the races he has been competing and i expect this to help his chances too. Jockey booking can be seen as a positive also. Sean Levey rides and he’s had 2 winner from his 5 rides for this yard in the past year. at a double figure price he looks worthy of a bet in my opinion. The main danger will probably be Spirit Of Gondree who was 2nd over C&D on Weds, he would have gone even closer with a clear run so must be respected. On a side note i did also consider Gabrials Wawa who is also looking attractively handicapped. I felt he showed signs of potential comeback on his first start for his new yard last time, and didn’t looks to be given the hardest of times by his jockey. He’s back over a C&D where his record is 1/1 and is 13lb below his last winning mark (less than 1 year ago), he looks like a horse that will be gambled on very soon imo.

Well i mentioned 3 horses in my write up, got the 1-2 but the one i backed was 6th :lol Didn't run too badly, travelled wide and was ridden quite prominently, i was hoping he'd get a more patient ride from his wide draw. Staked: 131pts Returned: 236.72ts P/L: +105.72pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread I'm not happy about backing this one at such a short price but it'll still probably prove value imo. Was hoping for 16's which is what he opened up at but was out and missed the price :wall 5.10 - Southwell - Masai Moon 1pt @ 9/1 Bet365 The days of Masai Moon running off marks in the 90’s are long gone but i feel the 10yo still probably has a weak race of this kind in him. He’s had 3 runs off the back of a long break and although never really looking like winning he hasn’t been totally disgraced. He still looked to hold plenty of ability last winter and despite not winning ran consistently well off marks in the mid 70’s. Infact he was a neck 2nd over C&D off a 14lb higher mark only a year ago. As mentioned his 3 runs in recent months haven’t been quite to that level although you can attribute a couple of excuses to these showings (In need of run, decent class 5 race/wide draw and wrong trip last time). This has at least brought him down to an attractive mark, of 59 (lowest ever mark) and with Pat Milman taking a further 7lbs off he certainly looks well weighted. He also takes a drop in grade to a 0-60 for the first time and is now back at a more suitable trip of 6f (never won beyond 7f and ran over 1m last time). He’s bred to act on the fibresand and he is twice a course winner, infact he hasn’t won at any of the other AW courses. His course and distance record reads: 5-1-2, with the win off a mark of 79.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 4.10 - Southwell - Shamiana 1pt @ 8/1 Coral I’m also going to back Shamiana today who has drifted out to a fair price this morning. The 4yo has flattered to deceive abit of late travelling well on her 2 most recent starts (including at this course) before failing to find much off the bridle. I’m hoping the step back to 7f will suit and expect her to build on her last run. She appeared to take to the fibresand well on her only previous start here. Travelling the best coming into the straight before losing 2 places in the final furlong and finishing 3rd. She was well beat by the winner but you’d expect a Sir Mark Prescott runner to have too much for a 51 rated rival like Shamiana. She built on that run back at Wolverhampton, again travelling well but finding the in form Huzzah too much and finishing a 4L 3rd. She looks very one paced to me and i feel the return to the fibresand may well just play into her favour. She has traded fairly low in running on her last 2 starts considering her double figure SP’s and if the drop back to 7f works (has form over 6/7f earlier in her career) i expect her to go close off a mark of 51. Yard form must be a concern with no winner for a while now but Richard Kingscote is riding plenty of winners at the moment (21.3% strike rate in 2014) and he is onboard.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 7.00 Kempton - Alnoomaas 2pts @ 10/1 Bet365 I was interested in Alnoomaas last time out when midfield in a 7f handicap here but think he looks an even better proposition back over 6f tomorrow. His C&D record reads 1-1-1-2 with the most recent 2nd off a mark of 74. Therefore running from a mark of 65 and from a better draw than last time out he looks a very solid bet at around 10/1 in my opinion. He also drops in grade to a class 6 race (albeit a strong one) so considering he has been performing with credit of late in marginally better company I expect a big run. Also worth noting he was very well backed in his penultimate run so I can see him cashing in off this mark before long. He can blow his chances by pulling hard and doesn't look the easiest of rides but if anyone is going to get a decent tune out of him Luke Morris will. Blinkers applied for the first time hopefully that will help him settle better too. 2pt bet as i was only expecting 7/8's

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 8.00 Kempton - Triple Chocolate 1pt @ 10/1 Bet365 I'm in two minds here about High Time Too and Triple Choclate, both horses I have followed/backed in recent months. From a form perspective I think Triple Chocolate is a more solid prospect back in trip as High Time Too has been abit disappointing the last twice, however with Ryan Moore in the saddle and with her creeping back down to her last winning mark she certainly warrants respect. She was only beaten by a neck on her last run over C&D and that was off a higher mark so a return to that kind of form would see her very competitive. Triple Chocolate was 5th over 10f here last time, perhaps finding the trip abit far at this stage of his career (faded and lost places final furlong), he drops back to 1m tomorrow and I expect him to go close off a fair mark. He won his maiden at this course in good style and after only 3 career runs surely has more to offer. Ultimately my bet comes down to price and Triple Chocolate appears much better value than High Time Too probably down to the Ryan Moore factor.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

4.10 - Southwell - Shamiana 1pt @ 8/1 Coral I’m also going to back Shamiana today who has drifted out to a fair price this morning. The 4yo has flattered to deceive abit of late travelling well on her 2 most recent starts (including at this course) before failing to find much off the bridle. I’m hoping the step back to 7f will suit and expect her to build on her last run. She appeared to take to the fibresand well on her only previous start here. Travelling the best coming into the straight before losing 2 places in the final furlong and finishing 3rd. She was well beat by the winner but you’d expect a Sir Mark Prescott runner to have too much for a 51 rated rival like Shamiana. She built on that run back at Wolverhampton, again travelling well but finding the in form Huzzah too much and finishing a 4L 3rd. She looks very one paced to me and i feel the return to the fibresand may well just play into her favour. She has traded fairly low in running on her last 2 starts considering her double figure SP’s and if the drop back to 7f works (has form over 6/7f earlier in her career) i expect her to go close off a mark of 51. Yard form must be a concern with no winner for a while now but Richard Kingscote is riding plenty of winners at the moment (21.3% strike rate in 2014) and he is onboard.

I'm not happy about backing this one at such a short price but it'll still probably prove value imo. Was hoping for 16's which is what he opened up at but was out and missed the price :wall 5.10 - Southwell - Masai Moon 1pt @ 9/1 Bet365 The days of Masai Moon running off marks in the 90’s are long gone but i feel the 10yo still probably has a weak race of this kind in him. He’s had 3 runs off the back of a long break and although never really looking like winning he hasn’t been totally disgraced. He still looked to hold plenty of ability last winter and despite not winning ran consistently well off marks in the mid 70’s. Infact he was a neck 2nd over C&D off a 14lb higher mark only a year ago. As mentioned his 3 runs in recent months haven’t been quite to that level although you can attribute a couple of excuses to these showings (In need of run, decent class 5 race/wide draw and wrong trip last time). This has at least brought him down to an attractive mark, of 59 (lowest ever mark) and with Pat Milman taking a further 7lbs off he certainly looks well weighted. He also takes a drop in grade to a 0-60 for the first time and is now back at a more suitable trip of 6f (never won beyond 7f and ran over 1m last time). He’s bred to act on the fibresand and he is twice a course winner, infact he hasn’t won at any of the other AW courses. His course and distance record reads: 5-1-2, with the win off a mark of 79.

Shamiana was 3rd. Again travelling nicely but finding nothing for pressure, the step back in trip didn't make a difference. One to avoid Masai Moon wins nicely though :nana still abit miffed i missed the 16's as that would have certainly been a 2pt bet for me. 9/1 still proved a good price though... 2 bets already up for tomorrow, that will probably be all... Staked: 133pts Returned: 246.72ts P/L: +113.72pts

[Steven6177]

Re: Lodge's Thread Nice winner :)

[salmonman]

Re: Lodge's Thread Alnoomaas is now 2/1!

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

Alnoomaas is now 2/1!

I know, Let's hope the money isn't misplaced! To be fair he was very well backed on his penultimate start...

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Can't believe Invigilator won! Something I posted after his last run:

I have been meaning to flag up some eye-cathers in this thread abit more often and i have abit of time this evening so thought i'd put one up from this evening racing at Kempton. I thought that Invigilator shaped with promise despite going off at big odds in the final race tonight. He was held up in last place of the 12 runner field and was left with a lot to do in the straight. He ran on in fairly eye-catching fashion finishing a never nearer 6th. He shaped similarly on his penultimate start in a slightly better race and if his trainer can find him a weak enough class 6 contest over 6f i'd be very interested in him, even if he remains on a mark of 62. He was only 1lb above his last winning mark when running tonight and although his mark will probably remain unchanged for nto he shaped as if he's could win off this mark a few times this winter. I'll definitely be keeping an eye on him nto...

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Duplicate post

[Steven6177]

Re: Lodge's Thread Maybe each way money and people climbed on it,keep up the good work lodge

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

7.00 Kempton - Alnoomaas 2pts @ 10/1 Bet365 I was interested in Alnoomaas last time out when midfield in a 7f handicap here but think he looks an even better proposition back over 6f tomorrow. His C&D record reads 1-1-1-2 with the most recent 2nd off a mark of 74. Therefore running from a mark of 65 and from a better draw than last time out he looks a very solid bet at around 10/1 in my opinion. He also drops in grade to a class 6 race (albeit a strong one) so considering he has been performing with credit of late in marginally better company I expect a big run. Also worth noting he was very well backed in his penultimate run so I can see him cashing in off this mark before long. He can blow his chances by pulling hard and doesn't look the easiest of rides but if anyone is going to get a decent tune out of him Luke Morris will. Blinkers applied for the first time hopefully that will help him settle better too. 2pt bet as i was only expecting 7/8's

8.00 Kempton - Triple Chocolate 1pt @ 10/1 Bet365 I'm in two minds here about High Time Too and Triple Choclate, both horses I have followed/backed in recent months. From a form perspective I think Triple Chocolate is a more solid prospect back in trip as High Time Too has been abit disappointing the last twice, however with Ryan Moore in the saddle and with her creeping back down to her last winning mark she certainly warrants respect. She was only beaten by a neck on her last run over C&D and that was off a higher mark so a return to that kind of form would see her very competitive. Triple Chocolate was 5th over 10f here last time, perhaps finding the trip abit far at this stage of his career (faded and lost places final furlong), he drops back to 1m tomorrow and I expect him to go close off a fair mark. He won his maiden at this course in good style and after only 3 career runs surely has more to offer. Ultimately my bet comes down to price and Triple Chocolate appears much better value than High Time Too probably down to the Ryan Moore factor.

Well today turned out to be fairly disappointing. The way both horses were backed i really expected one to win but Alnoomaas was 3rd (SP of 9/4) and Triple Chocolate was 6th (SP of 4/1). I haven't watched either of the races as i've only just got home but it doesn't sound like there were any excuses. What also made it worse was the winners of their respective races, Invigilator who i flagged up as an eye-catcher last time out but didn't consider him for today as he was about half the price i'd have wanted when the markets opened yesterday. And High Time Too who i made a good case for in my write up but didn't back him as i felt Triple Chocolate offered more value. Anyway, onto tomorrow. I haven't had chances to look at the cards but theres plenty of AW action so i'll probably be back with a selection in a while... Staked: 136pts Returned: 246.72ts P/L: +110.72pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Nothing to get excited about tomorrow, going to take a stab in the dark in the weak class race at Southwell. 4.55 - Southwell - China Excels 1pt @ 12/1 Bet365 2 that interested me in this race China Excels and Doctor Hilary. I backed the latter at huge odds last time and he outran those odds coming home 2nd over C&D, he was put up 2lb for that effort but has a reasonable 5lb claimer and should go well. I'm going to back China Excels instead however. The 7yo gelding doesn't have the most straightforward profile, having started out in bumpers he now finds himself in an AW sprint, but off a lowly mark i reckon he could make his mark on the fibresand. He made his debut for this yard off the back of a long break last month over 5f at Wolverhampton. He looked rather rusty and outpaced but in the end shaped well enough to suggest he still holds some ability. He steps up to 6f tomorrow and the way he ran on last time perhaps suggested it may help, he's now 3lb below his only winning mark and has a 3lb claimer aboard. He's never ran at Southwell but his sire Exceed and Excel has a cracking record here, showing a level stakes profit and an 18.4% strike rate, to add to that nearly 30% of his offspring that have run here have won at one time or another so i think its fair to assume there's a good chance he'll take to the surface. His yard don't have many winners but are 4/14 this year and all have come in weak races of this kind. Ross Atkinson has been aboard for one of those and in a race that won't take much winning, i'll give China Excels a chance at a big price.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Selection for tomorrow: 7.00 - Wolverhampton - Moves Like Jagger 1pt @ 6/1 Bet365 Write up to follow later this evening. He may well open slightly bigger with other firms but will take the price now as I won't get chance till later otherwise.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

Nothing to get excited about tomorrow, going to take a stab in the dark in the weak class race at Southwell. 4.55 - Southwell - China Excels 1pt @ 12/1 Bet365 2 that interested me in this race China Excels and Doctor Hilary. I backed the latter at huge odds last time and he outran those odds coming home 2nd over C&D, he was put up 2lb for that effort but has a reasonable 5lb claimer and should go well. I'm going to back China Excels instead however. The 7yo gelding doesn't have the most straightforward profile, having started out in bumpers he now finds himself in an AW sprint, but off a lowly mark i reckon he could make his mark on the fibresand. He made his debut for this yard off the back of a long break last month over 5f at Wolverhampton. He looked rather rusty and outpaced but in the end shaped well enough to suggest he still holds some ability. He steps up to 6f tomorrow and the way he ran on last time perhaps suggested it may help, he's now 3lb below his only winning mark and has a 3lb claimer aboard. He's never ran at Southwell but his sire Exceed and Excel has a cracking record here, showing a level stakes profit and an 18.4% strike rate, to add to that nearly 30% of his offspring that have run here have won at one time or another so i think its fair to assume there's a good chance he'll take to the surface. His yard don't have many winners but are 4/14 this year and all have come in weak races of this kind. Ross Atkinson has been aboard for one of those and in a race that won't take much winning, i'll give China Excels a chance at a big price.

China Excels ran okay. Looked like he took to the surface well travelling up nicely but simply wasn't good enough and came a respectable 5th, at least Doctor Hilary didn't win :lol Staked: 137pts Returned: 246.72ts P/L: +109.72pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Tomorrows selections as posted above is: 7.00 - Wolverhampton - Moves Like Jagger 1pt @ 6/1 Bet365 I'm going to keep the write up short, mainly because i can't get onto the ATR site. I thought Moves Like Jagger's handicap debut was quite promising and if building on that he should certainly be bang there tomorrow. Firstly its worth pointing out that his last race looks a stronger contest than he competes tomorrow, it was a class 6 contest, and the 2nd placed horses has won since and the horse just ahead of him in 4th went very close in 2nd last week. Moves Like Jagger was 5th (beaten 2L), and certainly improved for the switch to a handicap. Off a basement mark he travelled well, trading fairly low in running considering his double figure BSP but didn't quite see the race out that well. I think thats why he's been dropped back to the 'shorter' 9f at Wolverhampton tomorrow. He runs off the same mark and now in class 7 company i expect him to go very close. Paddy Aspell rides, he's got a good record for the yard and has a 28% strike rate this year. All in all i felt his opening price of 6/1 didn't look bad considering his unexposed nature.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

Tomorrows selections as posted above is: 7.00 - Wolverhampton - Moves Like Jagger 1pt @ 6/1 Bet365 I'm going to keep the write up short, mainly because i can't get onto the ATR site. I thought Moves Like Jagger's handicap debut was quite promising and if building on that he should certainly be bang there tomorrow. Firstly its worth pointing out that his last race looks a stronger contest than he competes tomorrow, it was a class 6 contest, and the 2nd placed horses has won since and the horse just ahead of him in 4th went very close in 2nd last week. Moves Like Jagger was 5th (beaten 2L), and certainly improved for the switch to a handicap. Off a basement mark he travelled well, trading fairly low in running considering his double figure BSP but didn't quite see the race out that well. I think thats why he's been dropped back to the 'shorter' 9f at Wolverhampton tomorrow. He runs off the same mark and now in class 7 company i expect him to go very close. Paddy Aspell rides, he's got a good record for the yard and has a 28% strike rate this year. All in all i felt his opening price of 6/1 didn't look bad considering his unexposed nature.

Blew the start and was slightly disappointing. Not 100% sure why Aspell thought he had to make up all that ground round the outside throughout the race. I think he could have been more patient and made his move later... Only selection i had shortlisted for tomorrow so far has opened too short. Will be back later with any selections. Staked: 138pts Returned: 246.72ts P/L: +108.72pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread I'm doing my nut in trying to find a selection tomorrow! Gone through all the cards created a shortlist of around 5 horses and only 1 is a backable price: 5.35 - Chepstow - Master Neo @ 9/1 Bet365 Master Neo was bitterly disappointing last time, he's a horse i've followed for a while and i really expected him to win. He fell however and was weakening badly a long way from home. It may beg the question why i'm going to back him again, but he's a big price in a race that looks weaker than his most recent assignments. I thought his final 2 runs last season were very promising, including in the Sussex National won by Well Refreshed. He was then extremely well backed on his seasonal re-appearance in December, running well but only managing 4th. With that run under his belt and off a mark slowly creeping down i expected him to go close last time, but as i mentioned he weakened quite a long way from home then fell. He drops back in trip slightly tomorrow which may help and the cheekpieces that he wore last time have also been discarded. He handles heavy ground, has an experienced conditional booked for the race and his mark is now 6lb lower than when placed at Ffos Las last season. That allows him into a reasonably weak race compared to what he has been competing in and i'm hoping that will see him even more competitive. Its also worth noting that his yard are in decent form, their last 2 runners have won, including Nail'm who was completing a quick fire double.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread The rest of the horses on my shortlist for tomorrow were: 2.20 - Wolverhampton - Hasopop 1.30 - Sandown - Astrum 3.15 - Sandown - Swing Bowler 5.05 - Chepstow - Westerly Breeze Be interesting to see how they get on...

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 3.15 - Sandown - Gassin Golf 1pt @ 12/1 Bet365 I've changed my mind on the Imperial Cup. I'm going to go with one from down the foot of the weights and Gassin Golf fits a lot of the trends for this race. He shaped very well last time in a similarly competitive handicap over 19f at Newbery and looked a likely winner at one point trading at 3.3 IR. He failed to see out the trip as well as Vendor and a couple of the others however and was beaten 10L. He steps back to the extended 2 mile trip today which looked an obvious decision based on his last run, i don't think he'd want the ground to be bottomless despite running well on testing ground in Ireland last year so the fact it appears to be drying is a bonus. His handicap mark of 121 certainly looks exploitable and it gives hims nice low weight for this race. Certainly open to plenty of improvement and i expect him to go well. I did also consider Harristown of Charlie Longsdon, i thought his victory last time reads pretty well. Hard to say how well treated he is though...

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Selection for tomorrow: 2.20 - Warwick - Squire Trelawney 1pt @ 8/1 Bet365 I was relatively impressed with all 3 of Squire Trelawney' hurdle runs towards the end of last year. His reappearance run where he was only beaten a head over this trip at Towcester was very creditable effort, it certainly looked a competitive race and the form has worked out reasonably (3rd and 4th won handicaps next time out). He was put up 4lb for that effort but was deserving of the rise. He then went to Newbery for another large field handicap, he travelled really well, especially considering he was on the front end the whole way. He didnt quite quicken as well as his rivals and was about a 10L 5th in the end unable to make an impression on his rivals. He was quickly turned out again though, in a decent race at Aintree 9 days later. He probably wasn't good enough coming a 11L 4th but the form of that race looks strong. The winner Tantamount was a close 2nd off a 10lb higher mark next time, the 2nd Dundee has looked promising on 2 runs since for Alan King and the 3rd Keel Haul has won twice since including off a 9lb higher mark, so he was clearly up against some well handicapped rivals. He's had a 92 day break since, which probably isn't a bad thing considering he had 3 races in a month and the way he went fresh in November certainly increases the confidence. He's still unexposed too and is certainly open to an improvement, whether it is at this trip or in the sphere is yet to be seen. Tomorrows race looks marginally weaker than his last 2 assignments and although it might have been more encouraging to see him upped to 3m, i'd fancy his chances over this trip, particularly if they went a decent gallop.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

3.15 - Sandown - Gassin Golf 1pt @ 12/1 Bet365 I've changed my mind on the Imperial Cup. I'm going to go with one from down the foot of the weights and Gassin Golf fits a lot of the trends for this race. He shaped very well last time in a similarly competitive handicap over 19f at Newbery and looked a likely winner at one point trading at 3.3 IR. He failed to see out the trip as well as Vendor and a couple of the others however and was beaten 10L. He steps back to the extended 2 mile trip today which looked an obvious decision based on his last run, i don't think he'd want the ground to be bottomless despite running well on testing ground in Ireland last year so the fact it appears to be drying is a bonus. His handicap mark of 121 certainly looks exploitable and it gives hims nice low weight for this race. Certainly open to plenty of improvement and i expect him to go well. I did also consider Harristown of Charlie Longsdon, i thought his victory last time reads pretty well. Hard to say how well treated he is though...

I'm doing my nut in trying to find a selection tomorrow! Gone through all the cards created a shortlist of around 5 horses and only 1 is a backable price: 5.35 - Chepstow - Master Neo @ 9/1 Bet365 Master Neo was bitterly disappointing last time, he's a horse i've followed for a while and i really expected him to win. He fell however and was weakening badly a long way from home. It may beg the question why i'm going to back him again, but he's a big price in a race that looks weaker than his most recent assignments. I thought his final 2 runs last season were very promising, including in the Sussex National won by Well Refreshed. He was then extremely well backed on his seasonal re-appearance in December, running well but only managing 4th. With that run under his belt and off a mark slowly creeping down i expected him to go close last time, but as i mentioned he weakened quite a long way from home then fell. He drops back in trip slightly tomorrow which may help and the cheekpieces that he wore last time have also been discarded. He handles heavy ground, has an experienced conditional booked for the race and his mark is now 6lb lower than when placed at Ffos Las last season. That allows him into a reasonably weak race compared to what he has been competing in and i'm hoping that will see him even more competitive. Its also worth noting that his yard are in decent form, their last 2 runners have won, including Nail'm who was completing a quick fire double.

What a frustrating day! Gassin Golf ran a cracker @ 14/1 but was 2nd, would have got even closer had he not been cut up by the winner. And Master Neo was crap, finishing a well beat 4th. Every other horse i fancied today finished 2nd (Hasopop, Astrum and Westerly Breeze) so atleast i didn't blow my hard earned on them! Could do with a couple of winners before Tuesday... Staked: 140pts Returned: 246.72ts P/L: +106.72pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

Selection for tomorrow: 2.20 - Warwick - Squire Trelawney 1pt @ 8/1 Bet365 I was relatively impressed with all 3 of Squire Trelawney' hurdle runs towards the end of last year. His reappearance run where he was only beaten a head over this trip at Towcester was very creditable effort, it certainly looked a competitive race and the form has worked out reasonably (3rd and 4th won handicaps next time out). He was put up 4lb for that effort but was deserving of the rise. He then went to Newbery for another large field handicap, he travelled really well, especially considering he was on the front end the whole way. He didnt quite quicken as well as his rivals and was about a 10L 5th in the end unable to make an impression on his rivals. He was quickly turned out again though, in a decent race at Aintree 9 days later. He probably wasn't good enough coming a 11L 4th but the form of that race looks strong. The winner Tantamount was a close 2nd off a 10lb higher mark next time, the 2nd Dundee has looked promising on 2 runs since for Alan King and the 3rd Keel Haul has won twice since including off a 9lb higher mark, so he was clearly up against some well handicapped rivals. He's had a 92 day break since, which probably isn't a bad thing considering he had 3 races in a month and the way he went fresh in November certainly increases the confidence. He's still unexposed too and is certainly open to an improvement, whether it is at this trip or in the sphere is yet to be seen. Tomorrows race looks marginally weaker than his last 2 assignments and although it might have been more encouraging to see him upped to 3m, i'd fancy his chances over this trip, particularly if they went a decent gallop.

Game old effort from Squire Trelawney off the front end there, wasn't beaten far in about 5th. Still not quite good enough though!

Staked: 141pts Returned: 246.72ts P/L:

+105.72pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 1 bet for Cheltenham eve: 5.00 - Plumpton - Jaja De Jau 1pt @ 13/2 Paddypower Jaja De Jau probably looks value to overturn the form with Conusker from last time out. The 5yo mare was beaten by 15L back in 3rd but does have a 21lb swing in the weights tomorrow. It was her seasonal re-appearance and she travelled eye catchingly well under a patient ride from her conditional jockey. Turning for home she looked a big danger to the eventual winner trading at 2.6 in running however she failed to quicken and flattened out down the straight finishing 3rd. Considering it was her first run in 189 days and the ground was extremely testing it looked a fair effort though, and i certainly feel she'll improve for the better ground she encounters tomorrow. She was campaigned throughout last summer and ran some decent races including a close 2nd off this mark so this would also suggests she's prefer a sound surface. She's still a relatively unexposed 5yo so has some scope for improvement and is on a career low mark. The yard form would probably be the main worry. Although Anthony Honeyball did manage his first winner of the year today and it was ridden by tomorrows jockey Choc Thornton who replaces claimer Rachel Green, Choc's won on 3 of his last 4 rides so is in the winners at the moment himself.