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Solving the Short Odds

Torque

By Torque
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Re: Solving the Short Odds Asian Tour Golf - Sergio Garcia to win Thailand Golf Championship @ 1.49 Garcia has opened up a four shot lead with one round still to play, and even though he has Stenson and Rose on his heels I think he can close out the tournament. He played well at the Nedbank Challenge and seems to be in a good place with his game right now, and perhaps having his girlfriend on his bag has helped him this week. Although Stenson and Rose are both capable of going low, it's unlikely to be enough if Garcia is able to get anywhere near the seven-under par scores that he has posted in his last two rounds here.

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Re: Solving the Short Odds German Bundesliga - Bayer Leverkusen to beat Eintracht Frankfurt @ 1.50 Leverkusen are on a great run of form in the Bundesliga at the minute, winning their last four matches. With the exception of an impressive draw against Bayern Munich, they have won all their home games this season and scored at least two goals in the process. Whilst they have also been prone to conceding goals, they have managed to keep clean sheets in their last three league matches and face a Frankfurt side that haven't won in the league for ten matches. During that time Frankfurt haven't scored more than one goal away from home, and they failed to score at all in the last two away matches. Leverkusen have the chance to pull away from Dortmund and move closer to Bayern Munich at the top of the table, and with the form Frankfurt are in at the moment they should feel confident of doing just that.

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Re: Solving the Short Odds French Ligue 1 - Lille to beat SC Bastia @ 1.43 Lille are having a good season so far, and find themselves third in Ligue 1 behind PSG and Monaco. The foundation of their success has been their home form, which has seen them win and keep clean sheets in seven out of eight games to date. Bastia are a comfortable mid-table side at the moment, but the reason for that is their good home record. Away from home, they haven't won a single game all season and whilst there have been several draws, they go into this game without a couple of important attackers and so their chances of scoring don't look good. Lille aren't exactly prolific, but as their defence is so strong they haven't needed to be. They should be able to create some chances, and if they can take just one of them then they should be able to pick up three more points.

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Re: Solving the Short Odds The Ashes Third Test - Australia to beat England @ 1.08 England appear to be in disarray on this tour, so much so that a whitewash has become a distinct possibility. If they lose this test, they will surrender the Ashes and in order to keep the series alive they will need to bat through the entire final day to secure a draw. Besides the two batsmen currently at the crease, England only have four players left and one of those is Broad who is injured. Australia have been rampant with the ball in this test and so it seems to be a question of when, not if, they wrap up the victory.

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Re: Solving the Short Odds PDC World Darts Championship - Justin Pipe to beat Arron Monk @ 1.23 Pipe has made the last four at both the World Grand Prix and the Players Championship Finals in recent months, and so he comes into this tournament in decent nick. The same can't really be said for Monk, who hasn't had that many good results this season. In addition, Pipe has the better record in this tournament as Monk has never made it past the first round and so this should be a relatively straightforward win for the eleventh seed.

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Re: Solving the Short Odds French Ligue 2 - Lens to beat Istres @ 1.56 Lens need to win this in order to put pressure on league leaders Metz, who play at the weekend. They are unbeaten at home this season, taking maximum points save for a draw against mid-table Creteil. Istres are on a dismal run away from home, managing only two draws from eight games. They have been leaking goals all season, and so Lens should be able to head into the winter break with three more points.

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Re: Solving the Short Odds Portuguese Primeira Liga - Porto to beat Olhanense @ 1.13 After a spell of patchy form in the league, Porto have won their last two matches to get their title challenge back on track. At home this season they have won five out of six, and after this match it really should be six out of seven. Olhanense have lost their last four games and haven't won away all season, and so their quest to move away from the bottom of the league is unlikely to be aided here. French Ligue 1 - Monaco to beat Valenciennes @ 1.28 Monaco remain unbeaten at home in the league, and have been grinding out results despite the absence of top scorer Falcao. He is set to return in this match, and with the Monaco defence unbeaten in the last five matches this should be a tough assignment for Valenciennes. They haven't won for six games since beating Ajaccio in their only away win of the season, and although they have shown themselves capable of getting a goal in recent matches they might need more than one in order to take anything from this match.

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Re: Solving the Short Odds Scottish Premiership - Celtic to beat Hearts @ 1.13 Unbeaten Celtic take on bottom club Hearts in the early kick-off in Scotland, and this should be an easy win for the league holders. Hearts could be without several players from an already threadbare squad, and lost heavily the last time these teams met in a cup match a few weeks ago. All things considered, it's hard to see past a big win for Celtic here. English Premier League - Liverpool to beat Cardiff @ 1.22 Liverpool, and in particular Suarez, have been in great form in recent matches and must fancy their chances against a Cardiff side in turmoil off the pitch. Their manager appears to be on borrowed time, and whilst that might galvanise the players to play well as a show of solidarity, in my opinion it's more likely to act as a distraction which will make this match all the more difficult to get a result from. Away from home Cardiff have only been able to pick up points from teams around them in the table, and with Suarez having just signed a new contract and the mood inside Anfield likely to be buoyant as a result this should be a home win. Scottish Premiership - Dundee United to beat Ross County @ 1.41 Dundee United are flying right now, winning five of their last six league matches. In each of those wins they have scored four goals, and so their attack is obviously working well. Ross County would be bottom of the league if it wasn't for Hearts being deducted points, and they are currently on a miserable run. They haven't won in six league matches, and although they have scored in all but one of those games they haven't been tight enough at the back to claim any narrow wins. If the Dundee United of the last few matches turn up in this match then it's hard to see how Ross County will stop them.

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Re: Solving the Short Odds Spanish Primera Division - Athletic Bilbao to beat Rayo Vallecano @ 1.53 There must be something in the air at Athletic Bilbao's new stadium, as they have yet to taste defeat there this season. Not only that, but they even managed to beat Barcelona in their last home match. They face a Rayo Vallecano side that have the worst defensive record in the league, and are only being kept off the bottom of the table by a Betis side that they only just managed to draw against in their last away match. Athletic Bilbao haven't been the most prolific in front of goal this season, but with confidence surely high after the Barcelona match and against such a weak defence they stand a good chance of getting another home win.

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Re: Solving the Short Odds One for Boxing Day. English Premier League - Everton to beat Sunderland @ 1.38 Everton got a good win in their last match at Swansea, and there are few signs that the impressive form they have been showing will come to an end any time soon. They are playing with real verve and attacking intent, and that could be bad news for Sunderland who will be missing Brown and possibly O'Shea from their defence. Brown in particular has played well recently, helping Sunderland to keep clean sheets in their last two matches. At the other end of the pitch Sunderland have found scoring away from home difficult, and apart from their first two away matches this season they haven't managed to score at all on the road. Shorn of arguably their most in-form defender and with a toothless attack, Sunderland look set to struggle against an Everton side that are potent in attack and reasonably solid in defence.

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Re: Solving the Short Odds With the tennis season in full swing, I'm going to restart this thread and see if I can make the short prices pay. I'm not sure how often I will post, but the aim is to keep the thread ticking over and in profit.

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Re: Solving the Short Odds WTA BNP Paribas Open - Petra Cetkovska to beat Shelby Rogers @ 1.40 Betfair Rogers has had a tough start to the year, and this will be her first main draw appearance of the season. Her opponent Cetkovska played well in her last tournament in Doha, making the quarter-final, and if she carries that form into this match she should be too good for Rogers. The American's most recent performances don't inspire confidence, and even though she has home advantage I can't see her winning this match.

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Re: Solving the Short Odds WTA BNP Paribas Open - Agnieszka Radwanska to beat Heather Watson @ 1.26 >Betfair Radwanska suffered an early exit in her last tournament, but generally she is one of the most consistent players on the tour and I would be surprised if she lost two matches in a row. Watson has the advantage of having already played a match here in the main draw, a straight sets win over Bencic, but other than that she has struggled for wins on the main tour and has been losing to the better players.

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Re: Solving the Short Odds ATP BNP Paribas Open - Stanislas Wawrinka to beat Ivo Karlovic @ 1.28 Betfair With the exception of a single Davis Cup rubber, Wawrinka hasn't played since he beat Nadal in the final of the Australian Open. Ordinarily that would be enough of a reason for me to give him a miss here, but because he has already played a doubles match with Federer at this tournament he wont be completely cold. With Karlovic there is always a chance that he can get a win against anyone via tie-breaks, as he did when playing against Berdych at the start of the season, but Wawrinka is decent on return and as Karlovic is so reliant on his serve the Croat could struggle if the Swiss number one gets a read on it in this match.

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Re: Solving the Short Odds ATP BNP Paribas Open - Gael Monfils to beat Fabio Fognini @ 1.47 >Betfair Except for an unconvincing win in his first match of this tournament, Fognini has been playing exclusively on clay in recent times. He had a good run at the Australian Open, but generally his results on hard courts aren't all that great. Monfils has had a good start to the season, and as the better hard court player he should be able to win this match

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