Torque Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 I'm going to try and see if I can make a profit between now and Christmas backing short prices, mainly in Football. I'll be concentrating on match betting, placing one unit investments on selections that I think will win. I will use Betfair for these bets, and will deduct 5% commission from any winners. Bets will be posted either the morning of the match or the night before, when I will also settle previous bets. I'll put the first selection up in the next post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted November 27, 2013 Author Share Posted November 27, 2013 Re: Solving the Short Odds UEFA Champions League - Real Madrid to beat Galatasaray @ 1.34 The reverse fixture ended in a thumping win for Real, and even though Ronaldo might miss this game due to injury, Galatasaray might not be at full strength either. Sneijder and goalkeeper Muslera look set to miss out, and even though Real have a commanding lead in their group I still expect them to be aiming for another win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted November 27, 2013 Author Share Posted November 27, 2013 Re: Solving the Short Odds UEFA Champions League - Manchester City to beat Plzen @ 1.20 Athough there might be changes to the team for this match as qualification is already assured, confidence must be high in the Manchester City camp and no matter who plays I think they will be keen to continue where they left off in the league against Tottenham. They have a vast array of attacking options and I think Plzen will struggle to contain them in this match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alienated In The UK Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Re: Solving the Short Odds Both look good things, but so did Porto last night. Be lucky :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted November 27, 2013 Author Share Posted November 27, 2013 Re: Solving the Short Odds Both look good things' date=' but so did Porto last night. Be lucky :hope[/quote'] I saw the Porto result last night, and it's the sort of result that goes to show that even this end of the market is fraught with danger. There is no such thing as 'free money' and that's something I'm acutely aware of. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted November 27, 2013 Author Share Posted November 27, 2013 Re: Solving the Short Odds It didn't look good at half-time with Manchester City and Real Madrid drawing and Real down to ten men, but thankfully both teams got wins in the end and so it's a winning start for the thread which is always welcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted November 27, 2013 Author Share Posted November 27, 2013 Re: Solving the Short Odds Daily Results Number of bets: 2 Profitable bets: 2 Profit/loss: +0.51 Overall Results Number of bets: 2 Profitable bets: 2 Profit/loss: +0.51 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted November 28, 2013 Author Share Posted November 28, 2013 Re: Solving the Short Odds UEFA Europa League - Tottenham to beat Tromso @ 1.37 Tottenham have been going well in the Europa League so far this season, and although they lost heavily in their last match against Manchester City, a lot of the players that played in that match won't be featuring here. Tromso are a limited side that have recently been relegated from their league in Norway and have only picked up one point so far in this competition, and they should offer Tottenham the ideal opportunity to bounce back from their recent troubles in the Premier League. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted November 28, 2013 Author Share Posted November 28, 2013 Re: Solving the Short Odds Daily Results Number of bets: 1 Profitable bets: 1 Profit/loss: +0.35 Overall Results Number of bets: 3 Profitable bets: 3 Profit/loss: +0.86 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 Re: Solving the Short Odds German Bundesliga - Bayern Munich to beat Braunschweig @ 1.08 Bayern play host to the team currently bottom of the Bundesliga, and this should be a routine win in their quest to retain the title. They are unbeaten in the league this season and have won every game at home, whereas Braunschweig took five games to pick up their first point of the campaign. Although they had a good win recently at home against Leverkusen and their results appear to be improving, Bayern should be far too strong in this match. Spanish Primera Division - Real Madrid to beat Valladolid @ 1.15 Real have some catching up to do in the league, and they have been scoring freely in recent matches. Although Ronaldo might continue to be absent, Bale has been playing well and they continue to look strong going forward. Valladolid are languishing towards the bottom of the league, and have only won once on the road against fellow strugglers Rayo Vallecano. This should be a comfortable win for Real, as Valladolid should not trouble them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 Re: Solving the Short Odds Daily Results Number of bets: 2 Profitable bets: 2 Profit/loss: +0.21 Overall Results Number of bets: 5 Profitable bets: 5 Profit/loss: +1.07 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 Re: Solving the Short Odds European Tour Golf - Charl Schwartzel to win Alfred Dunhill Championship @ 1.42 Schwartzel is two shots clear of the field heading into the final round, and is in a good position to defend the title he won here last year. The winning margin then was 12 strokes, and although that's unlikely to be repeated, if Schwartzel can get his putter going then he should be able to join Pablo Martin as a back-to-back winner at Leopard Creek. PGA Tour of Australasia - Adam Scott to win Australian Open @ 1.25 This looks like a straight fight between Scott and McIlroy, and as Scott seems to be playing the more consistent golf, I think he can add to his recent wins at the Australian PGA and Australian Masters. Scott has enjoyed a stellar year, and set the course record in the first round here. He holds a four shot lead over McIlroy, and one more steady round should be enough for Scott to add to his win at this tournament four years ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 Re: Solving the Short Odds English Premier League - Manchester City to beat Swansea @ 1.29 In their last two home matches in the league, Manchester City put seven goals past Norwich and six past Tottenham without reply. The Tottenham result showed how well they are playing offensively, as Tottenham had kept four clean sheets in their five previous away fixtures this season. Swansea will be missing both Michu and Bony, and so it's hard to see where their goal threat will come from. If the likes of Aguero continue to fire, then City should be able to keep up their one hundred percent record at home so far this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 Re: Solving the Short Odds Daily Results Number of bets: 3 Profitable bets: 2 Profit/loss: -0.33 Overall Results Number of bets: 8 Profitable bets: 7 Profit/loss: +0.74 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 Re: Solving the Short Odds English Premier League - Liverpool to beat Norwich @ 1.29 Liverpool have been in excellent form at home so far this season, and will no doubt be glad to return to Anfield after losing in their last match away at Hull. Norwich won at the weekend against Crystal Palace at home, but their away form this season has been poor and they have only picked up points in one match away from Carrow Road. They conceded seven against Manchester City a few weeks ago, and they have found scoring in away matches difficult. With Suarez in good goalscoring form and also taking into account his good record against Norwich, this should be a home win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 Re: Solving the Short Odds Daily Results Number of bets: 1 Profitable bets: 1 Profit/loss: +0.27 Overall Results Number of bets: 9 Profitable bets: 8 Profit/loss: +1.01 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 Re: Solving the Short Odds UK Snooker Championship - Neil Robertson to beat Stephen Maguire @ 1.47 Robertson has reached the last eight of this tournament for the loss of just five frames, and beat an in-form Perry in his last match. He looks in top form at the moment, and I think he will have the beating of Maguire here. So far in York the Scot has come from behind and won deciding frames against both Brecel and Liang Wenbo, and although Maguire beat Higgins in his last match he was fortunate in some ways that his opponent wasn't at his best. Robertson has tended to go well at this tournament in the past, and even though the same can be said for Maguire, I think Robertson is playing the better snooker and will find a way to progress to the last four. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 Re: Solving the Short Odds Daily Results Number of bets: 1 Profitable bets: 1 Profit/loss: +0.44 Overall Results Number of bets: 10 Profitable bets: 9 Profit/loss: +1.45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 Re: Solving the Short Odds French Ligue 1 - Paris SG to beat Sochaux @ 1.13 First plays last in this French top flight clash, and PSG should be able to make up for a surprise defeat in their last match against a Sochaux side that haven't picked up any points away from home since the opening day of the season. PSG have been in good scoring form in recent home matches and have also kept five clean sheets in eight matches at the Parc des Princes this season, and in that context Sochaux have it all to do in this match. A win for PSG will see them put pressure on their closest challengers in the league, Lille and Monaco who both play later in the day, and with that extra motivation I think PSG will be good for the win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 Re: Solving the Short Odds Daily Results Number of bets: 1 Profitable bets: 1 Profit/loss: +0.12 Overall Results Number of bets: 11 Profitable bets: 10 Profit/loss: +1.57 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 Re: Solving the Short Odds French Ligue 1 - Monaco to beat Ajaccio @ 1.17 After seeing Paris SG clinch an easy win in their match against Sochaux, Monaco will know the importance of getting three points here and keeping in touch with the league leaders. They are on a good run of form having won their last three league matches, and are unbeaten at home this season. They face an Ajaccio side that must be short on confidence, having lost six of their last eight league games and with only one win all season. They have also been leaking goals on the road in recent matches and against a side with the second best offensive record in the league, everything points to a Monaco win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skittle Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Re: Solving the Short Odds Not doing to badly so far. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 Re: Solving the Short Odds Daily Results Number of bets: 1 Profitable bets: 1 Profit/loss: +0.16 Overall Results Number of bets: 12 Profitable bets: 11 Profit/loss: +1.73 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Re: Solving the Short Odds UEFA Champions League - Bayern Munich to beat Manchester City @ 1.40 Now that the team news is out, I think Bayern are worthy favourites for this match. Manchester City are missing a number of players, most notably Aguero, whereas Bayern have included the likes of Ribery in their team. Bayern are in great form at home this season, whilst Manchester City have been having problems on their travels. In addition, Bayern have the chance to become the first team in Champions League history to win all their group games, and Ribery should be motivated to put in a good performance as he is on the shortlist for the World Player of the Year Award. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Re: Solving the Short Odds Daily Results Number of bets: 1 Profitable bets: 0 Profit/loss: -1.00 Overall Results Number of bets: 13 Profitable bets: 11 Profit/loss: +0.73 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Re: Solving the Short Odds UEFA Champions League - Chelsea to beat Steaua Bucharest @ 1.21 Despite some defensive lapses in recent matches, Chelsea's form isn't all that bad. They have won all but one of their home matches this season in the Premier League, and have been scoring plenty of goals. In the reverse fixture Chelsea ran out easy winners, and although Steaua are unbeaten in their league, their form has tailed off as they have only been able to draw in their last four league fixtures. I think Chelsea will be keen to get a good result in this match to make up for a poor performance last time out against Stoke, and a comfortable win should be within their grasp here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Re: Solving the Short Odds Daily Results Number of bets: 1 Profitable bets: 1 Profit/loss: +0.19 Overall Results Number of bets: 14 Profitable bets: 12 Profit/loss: +0.92 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Re: Solving the Short Odds UEFA Europa League - Tottenham to beat Anzhi Makhachkala @ 1.24 Even though Tottenham don't need to win this match as they have already cemented top spot in the group, their manager has shown that this is a competition that he respects and so I think they will be setting up for a victory. Although there are likely to be changes made to the team, Tottenham have rotated throughout this competition without any problems, and any players coming into the side will be hoping that a good performance might lead to a run in the side. Anzhi are a side in freefall at the moment, and are rock bottom in their domestic league having failed to win a single game all season. They have also been finding it difficult to score in recent matches, and so one goal could be all that is needed here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Re: Solving the Short Odds Daily Results Number of bets: 1 Profitable bets: 1 Profit/loss: +0.22 Overall Results Number of bets: 15 Profitable bets: 13 Profit/loss: +1.14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Re: Solving the Short Odds English Premier League - Everton to beat Fulham @ 1.41 Everton are playing some good football at the moment, beating Stoke easily in their last home match before winning away at Manchester United and getting a creditable draw at Arsenal. They normally set up with a front three, and in Lukaku, Mirallas and Deulofeu they have forward players that are in real form. Fulham won last time out at home against Aston Villa, but prior to that they lost six league games in a row which included three away games where they failed to even score. If Everton play as they have done in recent weeks, Fulham's poor run of form away from home is likely to continue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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