Aykay1 Posted March 13, 2005 Share Posted March 13, 2005 Post your thoughts for the racing on Tuesday here :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 13, 2005 Author Share Posted March 13, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Tuesday CHAMPION HURDLE -6 year olds have nearly a 50% strike rate in this in the last 25 years - 24 9 and 10 year olds have tried in the last decade and apart from the 9 year old Rooster Booster 2 years ago, one 4th place is the best they have managed - 18 of the last 20 winners won their last race. - Previous experience at C Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 13, 2005 Share Posted March 13, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Tuesday 1st race Tuesday Supreme Novices Hurdle Trend pointers 5 or 6 yo 1st / 2nd LTO Flat bred Irish 1st 4 in betting Just taking the 1st 2 of the above into consideration, we are left with: 1 4F-001 Akhtari (IRE) 5 11 7 D Hughes 28 7 240-112 Cherub (GER) 5 11 7 Jonjo O'Neill 88 9 131 Dusky Warbler 6 11 7 G L Moore J E Moore28 10 212411 Justified (IRE) 6 11 7 E Sheehy 44 13 511 Manorson (IRE) 6 11 7 O Sherwood J A McCarthy42 15 P21151 My Way de Solzen (FR) 5 11 7 A King 30 16 410-F11 Only Vintage (USA) 5 11 7 Miss H Knight J Culloty69 17 2 Perfect Storm M Pipe 6 11 7 18 122 Prins Willem (IRE) 6 11 7 J Fanshawe 31 D 19 313131 Publican (IRE) 5 11 7 P Fahy 23 21 4-11311 Royal Paradise (FR) 5 11 7 Thomas Foley 37 23 32412 Stan (NZ) 6 11 7 R Guest 24 1-111 Villon (IRE) 6 11 7 L Lungo A Dobbin 28 11 Queen Astrid (IRE) 5 11 0 D Weld 12 You are then left with the factors of the other trends. There are 5 irish trained horses above. Most are flat bred although not sure about all. 1st 4 in the beeting obviously narrows the case even further with only Justified & Publican in that position both of whom are irish trained, therefore trend wise (if you apply all) Justified & Publican stand the best chance of winning. I know it isnt that easy!! I have still to mae my mind up from: Royal Paradise, Publican, Justified, My Way De Solzen, Queen Astrid. Interesting M Pipe runner Perfect storm completely unexposed with only 1 run to date & 66/1 in most lists. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 13, 2005 Share Posted March 13, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Tuesday 2nd race Tuesday THE ARKLE - 17 of the last 18 winners were 1st or 2nd on their last completed outing. This trend would go back to 1970 had Borren Prince not swerved off the course when leading in its final prep race in 1985. - 6 year olds have a strong record in this race. Half of all six year olds to have run in the last 10 years have managed a placing. - Well Chief was the first 5 year old to win the race since their their allowance was cut from 8lbs to 5lbs - French breds have a good record. they have won the race 5 times and finished 2nd twice since 1993. taking the 1st important stat, we are down to the following: 1 441311 Almaydan 7 11 7 R Lee 48 5 223141 Kadount (FR) 7 11 7 A King 24 6 211132 Lacdoudal (FR) 6 11 7 P Hobbs 17 7 331F21 Limerick Boy (GER) 7 11 7 Miss Venetia Williams S Thomas17 8 3/3/-331 Ned Kelly (IRE) 9 11 7 E O'Grady 24 9 011111 River City (IRE) 8 11 7 Noel T Chance T Doyle142 12 222122 Supreme Developer (IRE) 8 11 7 Ferdy Murphy B Harding25 14 12F131 Town Crier (IRE) 10 11 7 Mrs S Smith 24 15 16-0112 Ulaan Baatar (IRE) 8 11 7 Mrs J Harrington 30 16 1102-11 War of Attrition (IRE) 11 7 M Morris 38 17 16-0111 Watson Lake (IRE) 7 11 7 N Meade 30 21 U13211 My Will (FR) 5 11 2 P Nicholls R Walsh52 23 13U-121 Mariah Rollins (IRE) 7 11 0 P Fahy 79 3 French bred horse above Kadount, Lacdoudal & My will. Kadount is 7, Lacdoudal is 6 & My Will is 5. Considering the stats, LACDOUDAL is the strongest contender here based on everything & the deciding age factor. Between these 3 at the mo on the trends. Although not certain to run in this actual race. LACDOUDAL also has course form to its name. 40/1 is a value price Each way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 13, 2005 Author Share Posted March 13, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Tuesday Here's my offering on the Arkle.... Applying the trends that 17 of the last 18 winners were 1st or 2nd on their last completed outing, we are left with the following: Almaydan, Kadount, Lacdoudal, Limerick Boy, Ned Kelly, River City, Supreme Developer, Town Crier, War of Attrition, Watson Lake, Ulaan Bataar, My Will, Mariah Rollins. The only horse aged 8 or over who has won this in recent years is Moscow Flyer and he is an exceptional horse. Well Chief was the first 5 year old to make an impact in the race since their allowance was cut from 8lb's to 5lb's. He has proved this year that he is straight out of the top drawer, something that I cant confiently say about the remaining 5 year old My Will. Taking 6 and 7 year olds from the previous list and we have: Almaydan, Kadount, Lacdoudal, Limerick Boy, War of Attrition, Watson lake, Mariah Rollins. A further trend i picked up from EBA today was that 9 of the last 11 winners had won novice chases over 2m - 2m 1f. We thus lose Lacdoudal and Limerick Boy who have done their winning over further. Having said that, i must agree with Bowles to say that 40/1 looks a big price on Lacdoudal and is a definite option for each way bets. Next, all of the last 11 winners have finished either 1st or 2nd on their completed chases. Goodbye Almaydan and Kadount. Our shortlist leaves: War of Attrition Watson Lake Mariah Rollins There is a worry about the ground with Watson lake. He wants soft and is unlikely to get it. War of Attrition is a very worthy favourite as he has done absolutely nothing wrong this year. He has also beaten very little though which makes me reluctant to take the widely available 11/4. I'm going to side with MARIAH ROLLINS who fits the stats and looks progressive. Ground is no worry and has been trained with this race in mind this season, hence the long break in preparation. At the prices i think this is the one to be on. MARIAH ROLLINS 16/1 SKYBET Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 13, 2005 Author Share Posted March 13, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Tuesday William Hill Trophy - We need a horse between 8-11 years old. - 24 runners who were 7 or younger in the last 10 years have produced only one winner in 1994. - Only 3 horses age 12 or over have won any kind of race at Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 13, 2005 Share Posted March 13, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Tuesday AK, something i noticed in this race may be that previous course form will count for something. That narrows the selections a bit with some having some great success over this difficult course. Marlborough 2 wins from career 11 wins Puntal 2 wins / 11 Hussard Collonges 1 win / 2 Tikram 1 win / 6 (record at Cheltenham is 57212202) Iris Bleu 1 win / 2 Jakari 1 win / 6 Frenchmans Creek 2 wins / 4 (record at cheltenham is 4313125 !!) Whereareyou now 2 wins / 4 (record at cheltenham is 96871104355) Spring Grove 1 win /8 Native Emperor 2 wins / 8 Therefore, this must be taken into account also. Frenchmans Creek (16/1) & Tikram (8/1) would have excellent chances each way in this race based on their course form. My personal fancy is Jakari whom I think has been lightly raced for a reason to come into this fresh. At 33/1 represents good ew value based on a 1/2l 3rd at Aintree in April behind Tikram 2nd on same terms as this race. If Tikram is 8/1 then Jakari is a big price IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidybhoy Posted March 14, 2005 Share Posted March 14, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Tuesday Great work Bowles and AK Along with your info and the EBA board I hope we can all make a profit this week :hope Thanks for all the good work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 14, 2005 Share Posted March 14, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Tuesday The decs are in, notable absentees are: race 1 are Queen Astrid & Royal paradise. race 2 lacdoudal (my trend tip). race 4 d'argent (ak's trend tip) look out for these later in the week when they tackle their alternative races. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 14, 2005 Share Posted March 14, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Tuesday my conclusions now are: Race 1 - Supreme Novices Hurdle Publican Justified My way de solzen Race 2 - Arkle My Will Kadount Race 3 - Champion hurdle Back in front Race 4 - William Hill trophy chase Frenchmans Creek Tikram Jakari Race 5 - Cross country chase New race so no trends to follow. Look at course winners. Race 6 - Fred Winter Novices hurdle New race so no trends to follow. Again, course form may help. Strategy 1pt each way on all selections = 18pts staked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khartoum Posted March 14, 2005 Share Posted March 14, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Tuesday 2.00 WILD PASSION has beaten favourite Justified twice this season & if you discount it's disappointing run against Marcel in the Tolworth hurdle (apparently yard was well out of form) , feel it's form is more solid than the other Irish. Publican could be anything, but at the prices I'll take Wild Passion at around 10/1, in comparison with Justified 4/1. Of the British feel that something will improve past Marcel. Hobbs has been talking up Chilling Place for the last 2 weeks but the 20/1 is long gone now 11/1. My Way de Solzen beat Marcel last time & trainer seems to feel that it needs cut to show it's best now 10/1. WILD PASSION for me. 2.35 WAR OF ATTRITION - Ran last year in Supreme Novice Hdl just beaten by Brave Inca so has good festival form. Won both his novice chases well is the one to beat. Contraband comes from connections that won this race last year & they have been very bullish. One I like for e/w money, Bowles10 has mentioned this already is KADOUNT. Really well thought of by trainer early in the season but disappointed. King feels that it is now only showing it's true form, last time out winning grade 2 @ Wincanton. WAR OF ATTRITION win KADOUNT e/w. As always it's as difficult as ever, but the best meeting in the world. Best of luck to all. Khartoum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted March 14, 2005 Share Posted March 14, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Tuesday This is what Ive come up with so far. 2.00 Using the age and winner LTO rends reduced the field to 8. Although the Irish have a good record in this race, many have only proven form on soft or worse. I've worked the list down to two, JUSTIFIED and MY WAY DE SOLZEN. Unlike most of the others, both of these have won Class A races over the distance. JUSTIFIED 6.0 Betfair MY WAY DE SOLZEN 11.0 Betfair,W.Hills 2.35 Again, all horses that didnt finish 1st or 2nd LTO were axed. I've worked this down to 3 possiblities. RIVER CITY, WAR OF ATTRITION, MY WILL. RIVER CITY has a 100% record over fences including a win in a Listed race LTO. Concern over the fact he's been off track for 142 days. WAR OF ATTRITION has a 27117211 record, the last 2 wins being his only appearances over fences. He fits the 6yo trend. Although most form is on soft or worse, he also has course form losing by only 1/4l to Brave Inca in last year's Supreme Novice Hurdle. MY WILL, French bred. Good form in graded Novice Chases with a 3211 record. Has 3 previous runs at Cheltenham UR31. RIVER CITY 13.0 Betfair WAR OF ATTRITION 4.3 Betfair MY WILL 15.5 Betfair 15 at several others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted March 15, 2005 Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Tuesday 3.15 After applying the filters Im finding it hard to look beyond the obvious. Both BACK IN FRONT and HARDY EUSTACE both have course form and form in distance graded hurdle races. Saying that MACS JOY has previously beaten Hardy Eustace twice at level weights so must be considered despite no previous experience on the course. Although seeming to be past his best ROOSTER BOOSTER still has form here and may be worth a lil e/w money at the prices available. Might consider a permed tricast with the 4 of them(24 bets) BACK IN FRONT 4/1 Widely Available HARDY EUSTACE 7/2 Ladbrokes, B365 MACS JOY 7/1 Ladbrokes, Betfair ROOSTER BOOSTER 14/1 W.Hills, Ladbrokes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted March 15, 2005 Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Tuesday Bowles, funny enough spotted Lacdoudal entered for a H'cap Hurdle later on in the week, probrably well handicapped back over the smaller obstacles. Just a thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 15, 2005 Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Tuesday Cheers Billy, i think it also has another entry in a chase, so i'll be looking out for it. Looks a quality card as ever today, will be interesting to see if we can sustain a 4 day festival though. I'm sure the bookies will love it. It means i have to divide my stake money over 4 days instead of 3. I havent changed my mind on any of my selections today after reading the "press". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thephysician Posted March 15, 2005 Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Tuesday my conclusions now are: Race 5 - Cross country chase New race so no trends to follow. Look at course winners. Spotthedifference won a similar race in November. I remember this as it was my only winner that day (with many thanks to Registana for going the wrong way at the last). So I've put a simialr bet on today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merry_miller Posted March 15, 2005 Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Tuesday Not a good day for me today, not 1 winner here's hoping for better luck in the last two (french executive to win + la lambertine to place ) :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thephysician Posted March 15, 2005 Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Tuesday REMOVED Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 15, 2005 Author Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Tuesday Spotthedifference won a similar race in November. I remember this as it was my only winner that day (with many thanks to Registana for going the wrong way at the last). So I've put a simialr bet on today. Nice one mate - hope you were on it !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 15, 2005 Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Tuesday my conclusions now are: Race 1 - Supreme Novices Hurdle Publican...............unpl Justified ..............unpl My way de solzen..unpl Race 2 - Arkle My Will........5th Kadount......UR Race 3 - Champion hurdle Back in front........unpl Race 4 - William Hill trophy chase Frenchmans Creek........unpl Tikram.................6th Jakari..................5th Race 5 - Cross country chase New race so no trends to follow. Look at course winners. Race 6 - Fred Winter Novices hurdle New race so no trends to follow. Again, course form may help. Strategy 1pt each way on all selections = 18pts staked -18pts - spectacular start! Always tomorrow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thephysician Posted March 15, 2005 Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Tuesday Nice one mate - hope you were on it !! I was, cheers! :dude Won one, lost one, missed one. I'll take that for the rest of the festival. If you want to know what else I've won on this season: Grey Abbey, Kicking King, therealbandit and Kamanda Laugh. The last is flat racer though. I am following the first two one way or another. Kicking king to Place in Gold Cup and Grey Abbey each way in National (um, not so sure about that one, but love to watch it run). Got a friend whose looking out for me, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 15, 2005 Share Posted March 15, 2005 Re: Cheltenham Tuesday looking back over the threads selections, the following horses were selected: Wild Passion 2nd Hardy Eustace 1st Spot the difference 1st amongst a bevy of losers also! well done to those who tipped these up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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