aldebaran Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... One in Serie A for tonight. I'll post the other weekend selections later. 06 Dec 2013 Serie A; Bologna v Juventus; under 2.5 @ 2.04 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Result: 06 Dec 2013 Serie A; Bologna v Juventus; under 2.5 @ 2.04 0-2 win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... A quiet weekend this one, a few selections in Serie A, one in the EPL and nothing in the Championship. All unders of course....... 7 December 2013 Serie A; Napoli v Udinese; under2.5 @ 2.06 8 December 2013 Serie A; Roma v Fiorentina; under2.5 @ 2.04 Premier League; Fulham v Aston Villa; under2.5 @ 1.99 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gmanc Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... A quiet weekend this one, a few selections in Serie A, one in the EPL and nothing in the Championship. All unders of course....... 7 December 2013 Serie A; Napoli v Udinese; under2.5 @ 2.06 8 December 2013 Serie A; Roma v Fiorentina; under2.5 @ 2.04 Premier League; Fulham v Aston Villa; under2.5 @ 1.99 when is the next selection? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... when is the next selection? after today there won't be anything until next Saturday when the next round of championship, premier league and serie A matches begin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Round-up of the weekend: 6 December 2013 Serie A; Bologna v Juventus; under 2.5 @ 2.04 0-2 win 7 December 2013 Serie A; Napoli v Udinese; under2.5 @ 2.06 3-3 lose 8 December 2013 Serie A; Roma v Fiorentina; under2.5 @ 2.04 2-1 lose Premier League; Fulham v Aston Villa; under2.5 @ 1.99 2-0 win Totals: 74Bets, £740 staked, £847.13 returned, profit £107.13, yield 14.5% Summary Table Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Selections for this weekend.....and, after 80 unders bets before it, we have our first overs selection with Udinese-Torino on Sunday! 14 December 2013 Championship; Leicester v Burnley; under2.5 @ 1.877 Championship; Doncaster v Leeds; under2.5@ 1.93 Championship; Nottingham Forest v Ipswich; under2.5@ 1.926 15 December 2013 Premier League; Aston Villa v Manchester Utd; under2.5 @ 2.03 Serie A; Parma v Cagliari; under2.5 @ 1.855 Serie A; Lazio v Livorno; under2.5 @ 1.926 Serie A; Udinese v Torinoi; over2.5 @ 2.15 16 December 2013 Serie A; Milan v Roma; under2.5 @ 1.901 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Just treading water at the moment....the bank is generally holding up though and I'm going to keep churning the bets over. 14 December 2013 Championship; Leicester v Burnley; under2.5 @ 1.877 1-1 win Championship; Doncaster v Leeds; under2.5@ 1.93 0-3 lose Championship; Nottingham Forest v Ipswich; under2.5@ 1.926 0-0 win 15 December 2013 Premier League; Aston Villa v Manchester Utd; under2.5 @ 2.03 0-3 lose Serie A; Parma v Cagliari; under2.5 @ 1.855 0-0 win Serie A; Lazio v Livorno; under2.5 @ 1.926 2-0 win Serie A; Udinese v Torino; over2.5 @ 2.15 0-2 lose 16 December 2013 Serie A; Milan v Roma; under2.5 @ 1.901 2-2 lose Totals: 82Bets, £820 staked, £922.97 returned, profit £102.97, yield 12.6% Summary Table Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... In case you are wondering, the single midweek Championship fixture does not qualify for the system. Watch a thrilling 0-0 get played out now..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Watch a thrilling 0-0 get played out now..... ? I'm clearly convinced now that this is an unders system with that comment! :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Fingers crossed for a better weekend than of late! 21 December 2013 Championship; Birmingham v Nottingham Forest; under2.5 @ 1.917 Championship; Leeds v Barnsley; under2.5 @ 2.02 Championship; Sheffield Wednesday v Bournemouth; under2.5 @ 1.901 Serie A; Cagliari v Napoli; under2.5 @ 2.01 22 December 2013 Serie A; Atalanta v Juventus; under2.5 @ 1.926 Serie A; Verona v Lazio; under2.5 @ 2.06 Premier League; Swansea v Everton; under2.5 @ 1.885 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted December 21, 2013 Author Share Posted December 21, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Apologies folks, just noticed I have quoted the odds for under 2.25 on the Verona-Lazio game rather than the under 2.5. Now corrected: Serie A; Verona v Lazio; under2.5 @ 1.806 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted December 23, 2013 Author Share Posted December 23, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Saturday was good, Sunday was not! The turgid run continues... 21 December 2013 Championship; Birmingham v Nottingham Forest; under2.5 @ 1.917 0-0 win Championship; Leeds v Barnsley; under2.5 @ 2.02 0-0 win Championship; Sheffield Wednesday v Bournemouth; under2.5 @ 1.901 1-2 lose Serie A; Cagliari v Napoli; under2.5 @ 2.01 1-1 win 22 December 2013 Serie A; Atalanta v Juventus; under2.5 @ 1.926 1-4 lose Serie A; Verona v Lazio; under2.5 @ 2.06 4-1 lose Premier League; Swansea v Everton; under2.5 @ 1.885 1-2 lose Totals: 89Bets, £890 staked, £982.44 returned, profit £92.44, yield 10.4% Summary Table Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Hello, guys; it's again the time of the year when we choose primus inter pares here on the forum! You might remember that we have over 20 categories to award the winners, and one of them proudly belongs to this part of the forum - we will select the thread that presented the best system / strategy here, according to the opinion of its visitors. If you're reading these words, that means you've visited this thread, and maybe you like it? If so, why wouldn't you take a minute to nominate it for an Oscar?! That way, you will reward author of this thread for his efforts, and in the same time you will help yourself with a thrill of lottery: anyone who nominates a member who actually goes on to win that award will be placed in a draw, and two lucky members will win £25 cash via Moneybookers. So get nominating! Please visit this thread and post your nomination there, under category "Best thread in Systems & Strategy". Remember: You can nominate at most 2 users per category. You don't have to nominate users in all categories - if you don't have any idea who to nominate in some category just leave it alone. Nominations will close on Dec 31st 2013 at Midnight, after that the nominations will be counted and the 4 top nominated users and ties in each category will take part in vote poll for two weeks. All nominations must be for current and active members, others will be disregarded. Thank you all, and enjoy the Holidays! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted December 24, 2013 Author Share Posted December 24, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Looks like there is just one selection for Boxing Day. 26 December 2013 Premier League; Norwich v Fulham; under2.5 @ 2.01 Happy Christmas to all! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sensitive Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Good luck Aldebaran and happy Christmas. I like your system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Another loser! The curse of the late goal strikes again :wall 26 December 2013 Premier League; Norwich v Fulham; under2.5 @ 2.01 1-2 lose Totals: 90Bets, £900 staked, £982.44 returned, profit £82.44, yield 9.2% Summary Table December has been poor for the system but hopefully this is just a blip. There are no selections for the weekend games in England but hopefully some of the New Year's Day games will meet the criteria. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Good luck Aldebaran and happy Christmas. I like your system. Thanks Sensitive, it's stuttering at the moment though so I could do with some luck just now (not that I believe in luck of course......) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Three unders for New Year's Day: 1 January 2014 Premier League; West Brom v Newcastle; under2.5 @ 2.04 Championship; Brighton v Bournemouth; under2.5 @ 1.869 Championship; QPR v Doncaster; under2.5 @ 1.909 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dragonball Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... good luck.it seems good this system.nice odds. I see that you prefer a lot of england matches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... good luck.it seems good this system.nice odds. I see that you prefer a lot of england matches. Hi, thanks. The system is outlined at the top of the thread, but to summarise I am running with matches from English Premier League and Championship and Italian Serie A only. This is based on identifying the most consistent leagues in terms of the system results. Other leagues have been tested where I could get hold of the match statistics required but they don't seem to show the same level of value and consistency when back tested, so I'm just running with these three. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... A decent start to the year. Only an injury-time winner for QPR stopped all 3 out of 3 coming in! 1 January 2014 Premier League; West Brom v Newcastle; under2.5 @ 2.04 1-0 win Championship; Brighton v Bournemouth; under2.5 @ 1.869 1-1 win Championship; QPR v Doncaster; under2.5 @ 1.909 2-1 lose Totals: 93Bets, £930 staked, £1021.53 returned, profit £91.53, yield 9.8% Summary Table There is still a strong bias in the system ratings to the unders that I had felt was greater than in most years tested and was resulting in the virtual absence of overs picks. However, having had a chance to review the backtested data and results there are similar extended periods where a league only throws up overs or unders but this is unlikely to be maintained for the whole season. So the current run on unders is not totally unprecedented. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Serie A returns on Sunday/Monday and two of Monday's games meet the systems criteria. Posting earlier than usual as I will be away. 6 January 2014 Serie A; Milan v Atalanta; under2.5 @ 1.971 Serie A; Lazio v Inter; under2.5 @ 1.98 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted January 7, 2014 Author Share Posted January 7, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... One winner, one loser: 6 January 2014 Serie A; Milan v Atalanta; under2.5 @ 1.971 3-0 lose Serie A; Lazio v Inter; under2.5 @ 1.98 1-0 win Totals: 95Bets, £950 staked, £1041.33 returned, profit £91.33, yield 9.6% Summary Table Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted January 11, 2014 Author Share Posted January 11, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Two for Saturday: 11 January 2014 Championship; Wigan v Bournemouth; under2.5 @ 1.943 Premier League; Cardiff v West Ham; under2.5 @ 1.952 Let's hope West Ham have had a productive few days training on their defending! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted January 11, 2014 Author Share Posted January 11, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Hit by a 90th minute goal again at Wigan today. Four in Serie A tomorrow. I'll round up the results after tomorrow's games. 12th January 2014 Serie A; Torino v Fiorentina; under 2.5 @ 1.826 Serie A; Cagliari v Juventus; under 2.5 @ 2.04 Serie A; Verona v Napoli; under 2.5 @ 2.28 Serie A; Sassuolo v Milan; under 2.5 @ 2.06 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Well that was a bit of a kick in the gonads! West Ham did us proud by managing to keep a clean sheet for a change and Torino v Fiorentina was goal-less but it was all downhill from there. Yield now down to a shade under 7% but at least it is still in profit and there is still plenty of season left to run... Results from last weekend: 11 January 2014 Championship; Wigan v Bournemouth; under2.5 @ 1.943 3-0 lose Premier League; Cardiff v West Ham; under2.5 @ 1.952 0-2 win 12th January 2014 Serie A; Torino v Fiorentina; under 2.5 @ 1.826 0-0 win Serie A; Cagliari v Juventus; under 2.5 @ 2.04 1-4 lose Serie A; Verona v Napoli; under 2.5 @ 2.28 0-3 lose Serie A; Sassuolo v Milan; under 2.5 @ 2.06 4-3 lose Totals: 101Bets, £1010 staked, £1079.11 returned, profit £69.11, yield 6.8% Summary Table Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... A quiet weekend this one with just two selections from the Championship, but....wait for it....one of them is an OVER! Let's hope they're good 'uns cos this crappy run has gone on far too long for my liking. 18 January 2014 Championship; Bournemouth v Watford; over2.5 @ 1.971 Championship; Derby v Brighton; under2.5 @ 1.855 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Last weekends results: 18 January 2014 Championship; Bournemouth v Watford; over2.5 @ 1.971 1-1 lost Championship; Derby v Brighton; under2.5 @ 1.855 1-0 won Posting from a mobile so can't update tables, I'll do this later. Only one this weekend with the FA Cup taking out most of the fixtures in the top two divisions in England: 25th January 2014 Series A; Lazio v Juventus; under 2.5 @ 1.9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... A winner! 25th January 2014 Series A; Lazio v Juventus; under 2.5 @ 1.9 1-1 won Totals: 104Bets, £1040 staked, £1116.66 returned, profit £76.66, yield 7.4% >Summary Table Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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