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About Ziener

  • Birthday 11/10/1980

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  1. Re: Dutch Cup season 2013 / 2014 I would like to add to that that Koeman just confirmed Feyenoord will play the same game against Ajax as they did against Utrecht. So they will play attacking pressure again. With both defenses being weakened due to subs and Vermeer instead of Cilessen for Ajax I do feel a goal bet over 2,5 is another possibility. The problem begin is that bookies expect that to and at best you could get is 1,50 for it. Over 3,5 is quite demanding I am not sure if I could recommend that. I think the best value is on a Feyenoord surprise today but as always not betting the favorit takes some cojones. With the right staking plan you can get profit out of it but it's not for everyone as it can lead to streaks of losing as well and if you are prone to chase one Id stay out of this bet. It really is a toss up it can be just like with Roda - Az decided by two dumb invidividuals. One making an own goal which was unlcuky. But the 2nd getting a yellow for a dive then bumping into the referee and getting his 2nd yellow. Can you believe the stupidity of some players :wall
  2. Re: Dutch Cup season 2013 / 2014 Ajax - Feyenoord The biggest possible game in Dutch Football it's a must watch for anyone following this league I think it will be a great game. Now to start of since I am having the worst amount of luck lately I will keep it short and sweet. What is important; well I just read in the morning newspaper that the Ajax coach has decided to rotate players. There will most likely be no sightorsson, no denswil, and no moisander. So they expect that their best defender and their best striker get taken out. These 3 earlier mentioned will be replaced by respectively krkic, serero and denswil. Then de Boer will also put in his 2nd goalkeeper instead of Vermeer instead of Cilessen. Simply put Ajax will not play full strength in this match altough their subs are ofcourse of sufficient quality to beat Feyenoord. But in the quote of football TV analyst Jan Mulder on the dutch television sunday: "Feyenoord played championsfootball against Utrecht". The media was really impressed by Feyenoord last weekend and so was I, possible the best Feyenoord I have seen since the UEFA cup team of 2002. On Feyenoord's end there is one really important injury and that is the suspension of Dutch national team central defender Stefan de Vrij. Van Beek is his replacement but he has only seen action once or twice this season and is a complete rookie to the top flight game. So with both teams facing some weaknesses I think it will be a toss up and in that case I am going to lean towards the value and take a bet on Feyenoord. They were extremely impressive and I was not too impressed by Ajax who lately barely win games convincingly last 3 ( Cambuur 1-2 ) , ( Roda 1-2 ) ( PSV 1-0 ). So I do not agree with senk I do not think they are in great form. First two games were decided deep in injury time and the last game they were lucky PSV did not do anything with their chances. Feyenoord's extremely convincing show of football this weekend is the reason why I take a bet on them. I will consider any of these 3 depending on the final line up but I can say I lean most towards Feyenoord+1 EH untill I have seen the final line up. Feyenoord to qualify @ 2,75 Bet365 Feyenoord +1 EH @ Evens Paddypower Feyenoord to win @ 4,51 Pinnacle
  3. Re: Dutch Cup season 2013 / 2014 Wow an own goal by Roda that gives AZ the lead, then a red card for Roda next in the 60th minute. I can write the nicest preview but if two clowns screw up like that there is no telling. It´s the 2nd time this week my bet gets screwed by a red card :spank To make it even nicer AZ only had 2 whole shots on goal during the match...
  4. Re: BBOTD Football Alright mate thanks for considering it :ok
  5. Re: BBOTD Football The thing is that if you allow anything between 1,01 and infinite it becomes a unit competition. That is a lot of work to manage. I do not think the evens price is so restrictive. You can increase value on any pick if you make use of a handicap. The challenge is to find a pick of value that you dare to back. You could also see it as a value competition to see who can extract value out of their favorit bet. If you allow everything and anyone it could potentially become a super big unmanageable unit competition. Then I agree with you, there is already something like that on the forum so why add another copy of what already exists? You might aswell then expand the tipster competition with leagues outside of the UK. I think if you want something new free of a lot of adminwork but with the prospect of becoming a very popular and valuable topic I think it would make sense to try this idea. Let's say you round up after a month just like with the horses, the person with the highest number of correct pick wins. To stimulate people to seek higher odds than evens you could make the person who has the most value ( total odds on winning picks/ total picks ) the award for most valuable contributor. So you have two side competitions, one wins the award for steadiest value contributes and the other one for the highest value contributes. You can maybe think of a small prize in the form of an Award next to their name or whatever is available. It would keep things really basic and simple but also there would be value, not a lot of admin work and the possibility for people to choose from their own expertise. Maybe some hidden talent can be discovered in this way that is not being made use of and we could all profit from the guy with the sharpest eye for value. I would prefer a high standard but you could lower it a bit to 1,70/1,80 minimum odd or so. Keeps things a little challenging before people start recommending Barca vs Almeria ( straight home win ) as their favorite play of the day.
  6. Re: Dutch Cup season 2013 / 2014 Both teams will definitely play with their strongest line up as both coaches have mentioned in the media that they take this very serious and want their team to give it their all. The Dutch cup has a tradition of being taken very serious by clubs, all teams play in their strongest line up. I cannot ever remember a coach playing with a 2nd team, there is no return possibility so its winner takes all on the night. With stakes so high it might be that both teams not play an open game at all. It could potentially ruin any goal bets. You are right on the defensive part but be advised that with the new manager comes a new tactic. Roda used to play offensive Dutch style football that generates a lot of chances for them but also for the opponent. As far as I can judge now from the last game Roda have changed to a 4-5-1 system with a lone striker Nemeth and an emphasis on controlling the midfield instead of just trying to attack. You are right that Roda's defense is poor so yes you could definitely consider the totals bets but I am not sure yet I think I want to see a few games to see if Roda has changed or if they still are a goal conceding machine. They only conceded 1 regular goal against Heerenveen, that is not bad since Heerenveen is a goal scoring machine in their stadium. The 2nd goal was a penalty.
  7. Re: BBOTD Football I think it's definitely worth a try to put this back up again. The EWWC sounds like a great idea but it might involve a lot of monitoring and the format itself is quite complicated. Also with the previous format, once you are out you are out. Anyone can have a few bad days and I think the people who were out of the competition just called it quits and lost interest. I think it would be a great addition to the forum to start this up but just like with BBOTD horses that you cannot be expelled from the competition but make it recurring. So just a running competition with the only rule is that your odd must be of value ( I still fancy the evens or higher but it is up for debate ). Since football is a bit more popular than horses you could potentially get a lot of players. To make sure it not overcrowds ( and thus not be manageable anymore for an admin ) you could work with a 2 week sign up period where people get a chance to enlist. Once you put your name there all you have to do is give your favorite play of the day in whatever football league you want. Perhaps you can test it with a 2 month running period and evaluate if it's any good. Then if it's more popular you could make it possible for new players to join every month or so. Then a few guys interested in monitoring it could take turns in keeping track of the bets and see who is on top. To keep it easier and managable I think it does not have to be a unit competition per se. It could also just be a subforum itself with at the end of the day an admin just lists the winners and keep a table of who won the most so far. So not who has the most units but just who had the most correct predictions. If the minimum odds is evens than you know any pick is basicly value so the guy with the most wins is the king of the hill. It is fairly easy to manage and could be done by one or two guys. I could help out with that. What do you guys think? I really fancy the name BBOTD football because it already has a good reputation with the horses.
  8. Re: BBOTD Football I have definitely seen it but not yet entered. However I do feel the BBOTD I suggest is slightly different from this competition. As I understand the competition you have linked here works with a restricted set of possible bets you can select from. If i see it correctly it is limited to the UK only. I thought with the diversion we have on this forum with people from many nations why not make a simple BBOTD football competition, with a free choice of competition? I would for one much rather participate in a competition where I can make my pick based upon the league of my own country ( Dutch league ) than leagues I know far less about like the UK ones. With the only rule being that it should be odds of evens or higher I think you can really give people a chance to excel with predictions in their own domestic leagues or favorite leagues outside of the UK. I think there is both value and fun in it. I think it could become quite popular as instead of having to browse to all the different domestic league forums you could look up your favorite punter most valuable pick of the day in his league of expertise in one topic.
  9. I have a suggestion for a new competition or a new sub forum. I think the BBOTD in the horses is a great competition and I like the BBOTD format in general. However not all of us bet on the horses so I thought why not expand this great format into football. Because of the current seperated forums for many football competitions I think it would be both fun and helpful to have one BBOTD football competition. The only rule difference with the horses that I suggest is that the value of a bet must be equal or higher than evens. Football has a lot more short odds than Horses so I think a minimum odd set is a good way of making it a very interesting topic in terms of both value and competition. With a handicap/spread you can make any game of interesting value in football. What do you guys think about it?
  10. Re: Dutch Cup season 2013 / 2014 Roda JC - AZ Alkmaar There is a very interesting game in the Dutch cup tonight that I think is definitely worth a pun. Because one of the strongest cupfighters, Roda JC, takes on AZ Alkmaar. The latter ,AZ, is struggling to find it's form. First things first what makes Roda interesting? Not just that they already beat Vitesse and PSV at home both in the league and both in the cup(!), but a recent changing of the guard. Roda JC, in the final phase before the winter break was really struggling with their form. One week they would give Ajax a great game the other week they got trashed by a promoted side. The board however took action and booted their old coach Brood and replaced him before Christmas with who I think is the biggest Coaching talent in the Dutch eredivisie. It is one of my favorite players, and Danish national squad legend, Jon Dahl Tomasson. He did great at Excelsior, before he took over they were in relegation trouble 2 seasons ( 18th, 15th ) but he managed to improve this bad team and make them a play off fighter with a 7th place when he left. I was impressed because I did not give 2 cents for this Excelsior team. Tomasson's first job was last weekend when Roda JC played Heerenveen away, one of the hardest possible fixtures for any Dutch team. I was simply really impressed by Roda, they were Heereenveen's equal and the 2-2 draw was more than deserved. If it wasn't for Heerenveen getting a penalty Roda definitely could have beaten Heerenveen. So this renewed Roda JC seems a good pun for tonight. AZ is however a dangerous team, I think they are still under-performing and with an away form of 2-1-6 there are just not finding their feet at the moment. Roda's home form is 2-3-5 so that is not too smashing either. But take into account that they have been renewed and revitalized by their new head coach. They are simply always a danger when playing home for any team and are a true cupfighter by defeating both Vitesse (3-1 home ) and PSV ( 1-3 away ) in the cup this season. Both coaches have already mentioned in the media that the cup is incredibly important to them. For Roda especially as it is their only way of ever getting a Europa league ticket this season ( The winner get's a play off one ). There are no notable injuries on either side so what we have left is a renewed Roda, with an astonishing record in the Dutch Cup so far and a great head coach. I put my money on Roda tonight and the odds are of great value as the bookies have Favorited AZ. I know going against the favorite is dangerous but with the improved cupfighter Roda and the poor away record of AZ I just have to put my money on Roda :) Bets to consider ( depending on the risk you want to take ): - Roda to win @ 3,10 Mybet - Roda to qualify @ 2,20 Bet365 - Roda AH 0 @ 2,22 Pinnacle - Roda AH-0,5 @ 2,85 Bet365 - Roda AH0,+0,5 @ 1,85 Pinnacle
  11. Re: Netherlands > Eredivisie > 2013/14 New year new chances, Ill be punting a mixture of long shots and favorites with decent value. First one on Friday. FC Twente vs Heracles Almelo This match is a derby, called the Derby of Twente. With twente representing the city of Enschede and Heracles the city of Almelo, only a few miles separated from each other. It´s one of the biggest regional derbies in the Netherlands and naturally this means that it is a must win for both teams. However the odds make up is really strange in this one. If we look at records so far this season Heracles is the fifth best away team in the Dutch league, that means they are a force to be reckoned with. Twente is the 7th best home team in the league. So just judging from simple form we would say that if Heracles visit your stadium it is not so easy to win at all. Notably they have beat Feyenoord in the Kuip stadium, Heerenveen in the Heerenveen Stadium and also Roda on the road. These 3 considered to be some of the hardest away fixtures for any team, especially Feyenoord and Heerenveen. Twente drew some really worse sides than Heracles like 0-0 in their stadium vs RKC and NEC. Now the odds of this match reflect something completly different. It portrays Heracles as a limped underdog with absolutely zero chance to ever get a result in Enschede. Momentarily the odds for a Twente win are 1,29 at various bookies and Heracles win ranges from 10,5 to 11,43. Wtf? This is not like we are talking about a really shitty team in the league here these odds are really weird. In fact in the last two seasons Heracles beat Twente in Enschede 2-3 and barely lost once 3-2. Obviously Twente are the big favorits here but 1,29 really? And 11,43 @ Pinnacle for such a decent away team? As for the injuries Heracles has 2 notable ones Koenders, defender and Amoaha, reserve striker, but they haven't been of any decisive impact, Veldman and Schenkeveld are fine enough replacements in the defence. On Twente's end there are no important injuries. Because it's a derby its a match that stands on its own, there are many things that can happen. I expect Heracles to put up a real fight and with some luck they might come out with a win or draw like they did against previously mentioned teams, with some luck a draw is a real possibility. If however they concede an early goal against they might collapse under the pressure of the derby and be outplayed by Twente. All I know is that Heracles can put up a fight and have proved they are more than capable of that. Twente has not been the killer team it once was so I simply do not agree with the odds. It will be my first long shot of the year 2014 in football. Haven't made my mind up in what form yet will do that tomorrow morning but it will probably be either one of these two. Heracles +0,5 @ 4,50 Bet365 or Double chance Heracles X2 @ 3,75 Bet365
  12. Re: Is there a system/strategy to guarantee profit in 20 fold acca when...
  13. Re: Is there a system/strategy to guarantee profit in 20 fold acca when... You cannot secure any returns when the full bet is not concluded. Bookies are ofcourse no charities. To me a 20 fold acca is like buying a scratch card, maybe one in 5000 20 folds will win something, just like one in 5000 scratch cards do. I would not waste my money on it. I hope for you it wins today. Inter, Milan, Liverpool could easily drop the ball tomorrow there will be at least one draw.
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