EuroBasket 2013 - Knockout stage

[Alfie White]

Serbia - Spain (3.4 - 1.3) Slovenia - France (2 - 1.72) Croatia - Ukraine (1.2 - 4.25) Lithuania - Italy (1.5 - 2.5) I had to open the topic this early because I don't think these odds on Lithuania will last long. Lithuania has two lost games up till now on the tournament. One against Serbia (I give credit to this loss in fact that Lithuania might underestimated the team of Dusan Ivkovic and the fact that Serbian boys came into the match showing teeth and playing amazing basketball) and other to Bosnia and Herzegovina, when I think they were playing with cruise-control - that game wasn't too important for them and it looked to me that they've played as much as they needed to. What can you say about Italian team. They had easy group (if you compare it to other groups)Russia, Turkey, Finland, Greece, Sweden... I don't know which of these teams performed more terrible at certain stages of the tournament so I won't bother much typing about it. Their victory against Spain seems to me was "dictated" by the Spaniards as they wanted to avoid Lithuania in the brackets as they hope to have better chances reaching finals against Serbia, France and Slovenia. Anyhow Italy made a big success coming this far into the tournament, but they will have to stop here, as I think Lithuanian side will manage to dominate the game from the start to the end without any problems. Italy will get dominated in the paint and I simply can't see them wining or making any kind of problems in this one. End of the road for them. Lithuania straight win @ 1.5 Lithuania -4.5 @ 1.86 Lithuania HT/FT @ 1.86 (b365)

[Alfie White]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - Knockout stage Can the Serbian boys rise today and beat the most favoured team in this competition? Europe trembles before Dusan Ivkovic and his young team which makes no calculations in the tournament, as their tonight's opponents did against Italy in the last match. Main problem for Serbia that Stefan Markovic (starting PG) has sore back and won't be able to play tonight, while Nemanja Nedovic has ankle problems but it seems he will be able to play through it. Main weapon of Serbian team is their magnificent defense against better rated teams (they've allowed 56 points against Lithuania, 65 against France) as it seems that boys get special dose of motivation when it comes to playing important matches. One more thing has to be said, Serbia has to play as a team since that is the only way they can defeat Spanish fellas. Let's focus on a key stats for this match: - Rebounds, Spain 312 (228 D, 84 O), Serbia 299 (202 D, 97 O); - Steals, Spain 58, Serbia 37; - Field Goal %, Spain 44.4%, Serbia 46%; - Free Throw %, Spain 72.1%, Serbia 63.5%; - Turnovers, Spain 98, Serbia 102; So as we can see from these stats, this match will be very very tight and couple of baskets will decide the winner. Spain might have the best defence up till now, but they meet against another great defensive team. It will be very exciting match, as you simply can't point in any direction and say "this team has advantage here" because they are very evenly matched. I know one thing for sure, Serbian boys won't go down without a fight and I can see why Spain have their fears. After all, when you stop Lithuania and France (Tony Parker), you are not to be underestimated, even if you have by a full year youngest team with 9 debuts for the national team. Serbia will have motivation in that fact, while Spain has to live up to their favourite status. Bet365 gives 1.8 on +7.5 AH on Serbia, I will take it and enjoy the show.

[mcege]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - Knockout stage Serbia-Spain The tournament had been full of surprises and Serbia covered all times when they were underdog. It's true that Spaniards had much harder schedule, and they have arguably deeper squad. But, I don't trust Spanish coach at all, Spain played with top16 teams for 4 times throughout the tournament and lost 3 of them. Only win was against Croatia, in the very first match of the tournament. Coach Orenga had so many questionable decisions throughout the tournament, he has a deep squad and he obviously can't manage it. For the sake of distributing minutes fairly, he doesn't let some key players to find the rhythm, or some role players got benched despite making solid contribution. Serbians obviously have the coaching edge, they have several solid offensive hands, who'll be enough to prevent that game slipping off in their hands. The tournament already has a tendency for close games, total line is already had been set so low. If this will be low scoring game as expected, then Serbia will cover the spread. Serbia(+6) 3/10 @ 1.952

[mcege]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - Knockout stage Serbia-Spain: 60-90 -3 I'm done with betting in this tournament. I'll just enjoy, I have very bad streak and I think, it'll wise to stop before hitting minus numbers overall in the tournament.

[Alfie White]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - Knockout stage "00:01 81 - 77 10 M. Belinelli 3PtsFG (Jump shot) MADE" Ok. Anyhow, I will post previews for today's matches a bit later.

[Alfie White]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - Knockout stage Lithuania - Croatia (1.6 - 2.3) Spain - France (1.4 - 2.75) I will suggest a double here. Lithuania is far better team than Croatia in my opinion and they had more serious opponents to begin with. Only hiccup worthy of note is the first game of the tournament where Dusan Ivkovic managed to surprise them and take the win in that opener. After that match, Lithuania consolidated, woke up and started to play really nice basketball. They have defeated French team by 14 points and that speaks a lot about the current form of the team. They deliver when they are expected to. Croatia had nice walk in the park up till this stage. More or less easy games for them and Croatian side knew how to benefit from their group. Real test starts tonight and I think they will face harsh defeat against title contenders - Lithuania. Croatia rely heavily on Bogdanovic and it will be hard for him to carry all the weight tonight. The way I see it, Lithuania has longer bench and will defeat Croatia with no bigger problems. ----- Both Spain and France had their games against Italy and Serbia. They've calculated who would be better opponent for them and they calculated correctly! Now they have to face each other and fight for the finals. Marc Gasol has presented himself as the real leader in both offense and defense. He managed to stop and dominate Serbian team in the paint and I see no reason for that to miss out tonight. Boris Diaw is no match for Marc and shooting lineup with Rodriguez and Rudy will have no problems with the French team. Parker can make miracles, yes, but Spain has the ultimate defense on the tournament. Zonal marking worked perfectly against fast Serbian guards and I can see that Parker will be stopped tonight. French will have to play like a team if they are to expect any positive outcome from this match and when it comes to team-play, Spain has upper hand there as well. My betting suggestion is that Spain will meet Lithuania in the finals. Spain + Lithuania @ 2.42 (Pinnacle)