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mcege

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About mcege

  • Birthday 05/21/1987
  1. Re: Galatasaray SK v Juventus > Tuesday December 10th I believe this all depends to scoring updates from Kopenhagen, I'm sure R.Mancini will not be too upset, if Galatasaray finishes the 3rd. I'm not into the speculations, but this is a group consists 3 Italian managers, anyway. Draws at both games will make all of them satisfied... ps: R.Mancini will surely want to win this and qualify next stage, but this is not his team anyway, nothing will happen to him if he loses and he'll face a much superior team, which should beat him if he tries to play "football". When current forms are considered Juve is much better and a revenge situation might occur as well, because of first leg. ps2: Galatasaray is historically match very well against Juve, but those were the old days and I don't think it's a reliable thing to think about. I'll take very small stake, fun double, draw at both Istanbul and Kopenhagen.
  2. Re: NBA regular season 2013/2014 running stats: 4-8 -2.09 Raptors - Wizards Are Wizards capable of winning 3 straight, winning back to back on road? I'm not sure, but I like fading Raptors when they are home favorites and I like the match ups. I slightly rate Wizards' bench better, despite T.Ariza is questionable for tonight and from the starting line ups, Raps might have a slight edge at wings, but Wizards' front court is slightly better, as well. I don't see any difference between squads and current forms. For the sake of home advantage, Raps can be favorites by couple points, so I believe there's some value taking road underdogs. Wizards ml @2.66 Sixers - Bucks I like Sixers as home underdogs, as long as they're not facing with one of the powerhouses, but with the probability of T.Young missing second straight game, I'll love to fade them as home favorites. Bucks is not a team to trust at all, but almost whole squad dealt with some injuries throughout the preseason and the first month of the season and now, besides couple long terms, most of those guys returned to action and they should be healthy enough. OJ.Mayo's probability to miss the game is not a good thing, but I expect him to play, as his in-game injury didn't seem that serious at first sight. I can't argue a huge value or such, but I'm not feeling good about Sixers being set as favorites. Bucks ml @2.34
  3. Re: NBA regular season 2013/2014 one more and the last from tonight: Sixers - Raptors Neither are trustable teams at all, Michael Carter-Williams is doubtful for Sixers, but I took this bet assuming he won't suit up. Raps might have better individuals on paper and had higher ambitions about the season, but after three weeks of regular season basketball, I rate these two teams very similar. Sixers has the better offense, better ball sharing, Raps has more talented hands and a slightly better defense overall. Sixers are coming home after 3-games road trip, whereas Raps is on the road after 2 games at home. This generally works for the team, which returns to home and had a day off. Raps might be arguably better team, but they're far from being the team, which is expected to make a late playoff run, underrated Sixers at home against not sharp teams cashed so far and I don't see any opposing thing to that because of schedules, player news, etc, for tonight as well. ​Sixers ml @2.44
  4. Re: NBA regular season 2013/2014 running stats: 3-5 -0.42 Knicks - Pacers Revenge game of last season's playoffs, Knicks won only 1 in 6 home games, they are definitely better home team then that. Coach Woodson had to shake the rotation up too much and that effects surely chemistry and integrity, but I believe they're getting there. Absence of T.Chandler definitely hurts the team, as he was the defensive leader and signal caller, and it'll definitely not help against mighty Pacers front court, which killed them last playoffs. But, I still feel Knicks deserve a shot, since this is an almost MUST win game for them. Their season is almost in line and coach Woodson has definitely a hot seat, a loss will cause terrible mood in MSG, M.Woodson, whom I believe his players like him, will speculatively get fired. I expect C.Anthony to step up against D.Granger and dominates the game. Pacers got rested for a long time and I don't think that'll help them. I expect them to start flat and Knicks to start well due to urgency. I can't argue with the odds, since this is a match up between the hottest team versus one of the coldest teams, but traditionally teams which needs these kind of games deadly generally nails an ugly win. Odds over 3 is good enough for me to skip. Knicks ml @3.18 Cavaliers - Wizards Slightly better, or similar level team, lost the reverse match up last week, at home, after screwing 16 points lead up. Traditional trends scream for an away win, but more importantly, I believe there're more things to like Wizards, instead of sole trends. I can not argue if Wizards has a good team chemistry, but it's known that Cavaliers recently had a poisonous dressing room, players pointed fingers lately in players meetings and coach Brown had anything but control of his team, so far. K.Irving continues to struggle, but since it's a team of M.Brown, Cavaliers' offense only depends on his creativity, when the game is on the line. I would be more confident, if Wizards couldn't nail that spiritual come back against hot T'Wolves, but they can carry that momentum to this revenge game. Cavaliers seemed to be a solid home team, but they never couldn't close the games properly and they lost to Bobcats in last home game, so they are not a solid home team at all, as well. Wizards ml @2.33 Magic - Heat I was expecting Wade to play yesterday and sit today, despite he still has the probability of sitting, I expect him to play. But, it's obvious he's not fully healthy, at all. Heat enjoyed one of the easiest schedules, so far, yes they could've won that much of games, if they had the most difficult schedule as well, but due to change of line ups and minute restrictions, I believe coach Spoelstra couldn't maintain his main rotation. Heat played so far 4 games on the road and lost 2 of them against Nets and Sixers. They are not sharp yet, especially on the road. Magic is a tanking team, but first they're not that clueless and has a talented core, and second, they so far nailed the big named visitors at home, namely Nets and Clippers. They are coming off a huge rest, which is not good at all and Heat is coming off a b2b, I expect Heat to start well, then a bit of relief to span out to team, then Magic to stick to the game and start challenging. It's extremely difficult to figure out the games such teams like Heat will lose, but these teams eventually lose, as well. I believe this is a good chance, because Magic will be more motivated then usual and b2b might catch, aged Heat's bench throughout the game. Magic ml @4.01
  5. Re: NBA regular season 2013/2014 running stats: 3-4 +0.58 Rockets - Celtics Rockets is an ok defensive team at best and in order to keep D.Howard happy, they waste too many offensive possessions, as well. Yes, they have one über talented individual, who's one of the best closers of the game, but I believe there are some concerns about this team. Moreover, I don't think chemistry is good, as well, O.Asik wants to get traded and C.Parsons likes to comment everything publicly. I can't understand, why a young player acts like the head of PR department, since off season. Celtics is not a good team at all, but 6+ odds against Rockets, for a team which already won at Miami... Despite being a speculative play, in order to maintain my Nba betting principles, I must make this play. Rockets will travel to Dallas tomorrow, so no need to tell which one is more important game. And like I didn't believe Celtics is a team capable of winning 4 straight, I don't think they're that bad to lose 8 straight and if they lose tonight, that is a likely case, because of upcoming schedule. Moreover, most of Rockets' back court had been dealt with numerous minor injuries since summer, I would not surprise to see some last minute DNP's, or minute restrictions as they're heading to a very tough schedule, 3 games against Western rivals, in 5 days, starting from tomorrow. Celtics is 2-4 on the road, but except the one against T'Wolves, they managed to stay close in all of those which they lost and lost it by clutch time screw ups, besides their chances to close this and win, I would really surprised to see them not being close until last couple minutes, then Rockets will have the home advantage, a good closer named J.Harden, but Celts will have fairly better coach in the bench and 6+ odds... If you decide to follow, you can always wait for bigger odds, because public likes to use such big favorites as combo material. Yesterday, Nuggets ml went to 5's before the game starts and despite shooting terrible from charity line, they still had the last ball to win, or take the game to over time. But roughly calculating, I won't give anything better 6 for Celts to make an upset, that's why, I'm satisfied to take it now. Celtics ml @6.34
  6. Re: NBA regular season 2013/2014 12 more missed ft's killed this long shot, i hope anybody followed, went safe and took the spread. it was definitely close, but ends up being the wrong play...
  7. Re: NFL Week 11 Picks I took small Pats ml, T.Brady is 17-7 ATS, when he's underdog and he won 8 of 9 regular season games, after bye week, since his breakout year 2003. The defense is hurt, but offense is fully fit after a while, except already replaced S.Vollmer. Mainstream media is crazy about Panthers lately and I believe, it's the perfect situation for Pats, since both coach Bellichick and T.Brady are really pissed. Good teams generally comes sharp after bye week and C.Newton was not that perfect as he thought to be in last couple weeks and his main target S.Smith will be covered by one of the best corners A.Talib. Current odds for Patriots is must take for me.
  8. Re: NBA regular season 2013/2014 running stats: 3-3 +1.58 Thunder - Nuggets OKC is 3-0 at home court, but against lower level teams like Suns and Wizards, it's fair to say they escaped quite luckily. This game is quite similar to the spot with Wiz game, they're coming off an Eastern trip and they'll face with much important conference match up, after this. Nuggets didn't transform into world beaters in one week, but coach B.Shaw shaked the rotation a bit, some trade rumours came out with some players and malignant J.McGee is down with injury, whereas long term injured W.Chandler returned to the team. All those things made the good and Nuggets improved. They managed to play competitive on the road, generally and I expect their front court presence and depth to hurt Thunder. It's a gusty play for sure, since Thunder is traditionally great at home, not covering wise, but with two perfect closers K.Durant and R.Westbrook, they close the games some way, or another. But, I believe 4+ odds deserve a shot. Nuggets ml @4.54
  9. Re: NBA regular season 2013/2014 running stats: 2-3 +0.4 Lakers - Pistons Lakers competed all the games at home court so far, except against mighty T'Wolves, this shouldn't change today as well. Pistons will miss W.Bynum and C.Billups, that means a short guard rotation and this means more minutes for B.Jennings, so an automatic defensive letdown at the back court, which should cause coach D'Antoni's run'n gun offense to have a decent night. Lakers live with 3 pointers and lacks a go-to-guy and that make them a team not to trust. But, Pistons with B.Jennings in the driving seat is not a trustable team at all, as well, especially in the last game of a one week west coast trip and as they're entering a 4-game week, after this. Everything above evens is takeable, for me. ​Lakers ml @2.18
  10. Re: NBA regular season 2013/2014 running stats: 0-3 -3 Jazz - Hornets Obviously I'm not gonna take this pathetic Jazz team, every single time, as long as they get their first W, but they lost one more game and now, they'll face with Hornets, who's not better then Nuggets at all and Jazz gets bigger odds. If I took them against Nuggets, then I must take them against Hornets, as well. It's not the healthiest way of thinking for sure, but it makes sense to my little brain, so I took this disastrous Jazz team, once again. If they fail again, then I'll not touch them for a long time... Jazz ml @2.18 Sixers - Rockets Rockets is terrible, they suck big time in the offensive end, coach McHale insists D.Howard is an effective post player in offense, J.Harden seems uninterested and deals with numerous minor injuries, C.Parsons is also dealing with some minor injuries and finally bench is not good, at all. Sixers started to get underestimated after debut week hype, they kept challenging against some good teams, except the last game against Spurs, which is anyway too superior. Sixers' careless, shoot free style will fit Rockets perfectly, which is far from being a solid defensive outfit. Sixers had beaten better teams at home, their hype didn't last long as expected, but that doesn't mean, they'll stop competing, especially at home court. Sixers ml @3.22
  11. Re: NBA regular season 2013/2014 I always thrive to take underdogs during regular season (it's actually only thing I do with Nba betting...) and I finally like some plays I would like to share, from tonight's card. Pacers - Grizzlies Indy is the team to watch definitely, they were my bet to get crowned before season, I jumped couple of Pacers in fantasy basketball, so I'm happy them started good. But, one must note that they didn't have a really tough schedule and some of their late performances were not convincing. They'll lost at one point for sure, and I really like the match ups which Grizzlies will put on table, tonight. Grizzlies is nothing but shaky so far, but in overall, they're at quite similar level with Pacers. I believe they'll own some of match ups, they have undoubtedly better PG and some solid perimeter defenders, who can limit L.Stephenson and P.George a bit. Every 3+ offer is must play for me. Grizz ml @3.31 Celtics - Magic I'm leaning towards a very profitable trend, in short time, if the worse team wins the same match up on the road, other team generally wins the next game on the road. Although there is no big difference, I rate Magic as the better team. I don't like their performances on the road so far, but it should be noted they played against T'Wolves, Pacers and Hawks. Celtics is coming off a spiritual win at South Beach, they won 3 straight and it's obvious, I don't rate a team which can win 4 straight. I love the spot for Magic and despite diminished odds, I still believe they deserve a play, as long as they're underdogs. Magic ml @2.06 Jazz - Nuggets Jazz is winless, some of hyped youngsters underperformed so far, it's obvious, it hurts them not to have a solid play maker. Nuggets certainly has better material, but I didn't see any difference on court, compared to their opponent, tonight. Coach B.Shaw definitely wants to shake things up, it's obvious, he couldn't maintain his safe rotation and minute distribution and there are numerous guys who seem incredibly uninterested. W.Chandler will return after a long break and J.McGee is injured, I don't expect these two things to have dramatic effects, for tonight, at least. If Jazz doesn't win tonight, I wouldn't surprise to see them ending up with 0-16 start, as I see their schedule and I know, they don't give a damn about winning, due to super hyped next draft class, they'll win at one moment and I like tonight's spot, as they come to home after a 4-game road trip. Jazz ml @2.16 All odds are taken from pinnacle. I personally played same amount of money for all those three plays, so the stakes are flat. In order to keep the things simple with counting the stats, I'll accept them as 1 unit plays and that'll remain like this, unless I really love an underdog play and call it a double bet. GL!
  12. Re: FC København v Galatasaray SK > Tuesday November 5th sneijder and muslera is out, chedjou is doubtful. i took copenhagen already, i'll take more...
  13. Re: NFL week 9 picks Browns - Ravens Coach Harbaugh has great ATS stats after the bye week and when he's facing with a division rival, with who he already played against. (He actually couldn't cover only against Steelers, in this situation, which is a very hot and intense match up, anyway.) I don't believe Jason Campbell can produce two consecutive solid outings, against the best pass rusher teams of the league. J.Flacco's biggest go-to-guy T.Smith will be neutralized by J.Haden, but J.Jones will be back, which will boost J.Flacco, for sure. Ravens are in a good spot and they can't afford to lose, I expect a defensive struggle ends with a slim Ravens victory. Ravens(-1) 5/10 @1.855 Rams - Titans Rams coming out of a really spiritual loss, whole team seemed devastated last week. They have a terrible QB to start and K.Clemens will be awful, once again. He had been awful in all of his starts, so far in his career, so I don't see any reason to trust him. Titans with J.Locker was a 3-1 team and I expect them to be sharp again, after a bye week, against one of the worst secondary defenses around the league. Titans' rush defense is a concern, but Z.Stacy had been off whole week, because of injuries, so I'm not perfectly sure about his conditioning, anyway. Rams is out of any realistic goal, whereas Titans need to win in order to keep the season alive. Titans(-2.5) 5/10 @1.862
  14. Re: FC København v Galatasaray SK > Tuesday November 5th everywhere is full of conflicting reports about sneijder, some says he's doubtful, some says he's out for both this game and the one at weekend, against fenerbahce. impossible to give a reliable information for now and i really doubt to have an reliable info until the game day. but it doesn't sound promising, since he left two consecutive games at first half, although the area of injuries reported to be different. also, it's known that he attended only one training session, whole last week, so it's pretty sure that even if he's cleared to play, his conditioning will be highly doubtful.
  15. Re: Nfl week 8 picks just a small note: "Now, before you shout, "You're an idiot for betting on a double-digit road favorites," consider this: There have been 17 double-digit home divisional underdogs since 2002. You know what their spread record is? It's 8-9. Thus, if you've bet on all of these crap teams, you would've lost a bit of money. Now, if you flip this the other way, 9-8 isn't enough to wager on one side, but it's useful to be able to dispel the notion that wagering on double-digit favorites is a bad idea." taken from walterfootball.com btw, really nice picks kev, gl with lynch bet. it seems a really nice bet. i had finally a winning week, so adventure continues... (overall stats: 129unit staked, -10.983u, %-8.514 ROI)
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