EuroBasket 2013 - day 6

[mcege]

Great Britain - Ukraine Coach Joe Prunty already did an admirable job with this inexperienced, limited team and they're one step close to manage the impossible. They came impressive out of off day and played a good game against Germans, much better and fluid at the offensive end, mostly dependent to simple, but effective pick'n roll plays. Team's star Daniel Clark found his game throughout the tournament, he seems to shake the late injury before the tournament, coach Prunty obviously did a good job with him, as he increased his playing time game by game. Ukraine is an ok team, coach Fratello seems to point out strong points of his team and created a fighting team with certain limitations. They benefited from lucky draw and got their tickets the next round. If Ukraine wins this, GB will be out, so this win will mean nothing for them, as they'll not carry to the next round, since they won against Belgium, nothing will change for them if they loses this, as well. So, there is no need to coach Fratello to use his main players intensely, throughout the game. Great Britain qualifies, if they win, Ukraine doesn't have a reliable offensive option to suck out their biggest defensive vulnerability, which is lack of size at front court and it's a good and only time for Ukraine to rest its stars, before second round. (They'll have 3 games in 5 days, after 1 day off...) Britons have huge motivational edge, Ukraine has some quality edge, so I take points. Great Britain(+5) 5/10 @ 1.952 ps: I'll have three other plays, but they're from second and third session, so I'll post them when I wake up.

[Alfie White]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - day 6 I didn't want to place any bets on EuroBasket until the second round since I wanted to get "introduced" with the teams, but I feel like I should share couple of thoughts for this final round of first stage. The most complicated group for this final round. Group A Great Britain - Ukraine (2.7 - 1.42) This will be big test for Great Britain fellas, if they can come on top here, they will advance to the next round. Ukraine doesn't have imperative to win this one, but if they lose and Belgium beat France, Ukraine is out! So they will fight and push to be SURE they are through to the next round. Since this game will dictate the rest of the group games, both teams will play to avoid loss thus I expect very tight game, thus I think +4.5 AH on Great Britain is a good call to make. Germany - Israel (3 - 1.35) Germany had terrible tournament, they have won against big favourites, France, but lost the next three games, to Belgium in OT, to Ukraine and to Great Britain... From the highest peaks to the Mariana Trench. I can't see how they can have a bit of motivation coming into the match with Israel. On the other side, Israel has everything to play for if Ukraine defeats Great Britain. As this clash is directly connected to the Great Britain - Ukraine match, I would suggest only one bet and ONLY if Ukraine comes on top, Israel -5.5 AH. Belgium - France (10 - 1.06) Belgium fellas can hope that they can achieve what Germany did in the first round. Problem is, if they do this, they will advance and I can't believe that France would like to drop some points, especially at this point of the tournament. They made a hiccup in the first game, lucky for them, it didn't prove to be too costly. I can't see them dropping more points now. Belgium didn't impress in tournament and I can't really see them winning against France tonight. Check what line bookies give for Belgium, if its ~65, go for under. (odds from b365)

[Alfie White]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - day 6 Group B Much mathematics in this group. Latvia - Macedonia (2.3 - 1.6) Big match for both sides. Latvia will go through if they win this match and if Lithuania beats Bosnia with more than 9 points. Macedonia, on the other hand, has to win this match with more than 9 points to be sure. Thus this is very hard match to predict. Bo McCalebb will play the most important role along with Pero Antic and I can see them both covering their spreads. Will have to wait to see the lines before I see if there is any value there. Lithuania - Bosnia and Herzegovina (1.28 - 3.5) As I don't think Bosnians have enough quality to oppose Lithuanians, I don't think there is much point in explaining math for this match. Also this might be quite tricky match to predict, looking the possible outcomes, thus I would suggest you skip it completely bet-wise. Montenegro - Serbia (2.75 - 1.4) I don't know how much motivation will Montenegro guys have, but I'm completely sure that Dusan Ivkovic will rotate the squad and will give some rest to regular players as this match will decide absolutely nothing. Whatever the outcome, Serbia is through, Montenegro is out. I think Krstic will not cover his line, and that Montenegro could be nice call to play on handicap. Will give update a bit later when I see lines on players. (b365)

[Alfie White]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - day 6 Group C Georgia - Spain (14 - 1.03) Match without any competitive importance. I can see Spain rest couple of regulars, but can't see any point risking money on this match as you can't know how much will Georgia try and in which direction will the match go. Croatia - Czech Republic (1.4 - 2.75) The most important match of the group tonight. Czech fellas have to win with 2+ points in order to advance and scoring 95 (ninety-five, yes) against Georgia says that they can score if required. Croatia is clinging to this tournament after OT win against Slovenia and as they are favorites to win this match, they will have to perform well if they want to advance to next round. If they want to win this game, they will have to stop Jan Vesely, which is not easy task to do. Czech +5.5 AH for me here. Slovenia - Poland (1.12 - 6) Somewhat similar to the Spain - Georgia match, this one will decide almost nothing and I won't suggest any kind of bets as there is no point in wasting money on it.

[Alfie White]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - day 6 Group D Only one game in this group worth mentioning. Greece - Finland (1.08 - 8) Who could've hoped that Finland will go through to the second round of this tournament? They have played very nice, beating Turkey, Russia and Sweden, and are quite a surprise for the moment. They done more than they hoped for, that's for sure. Odds are too lousy, but I can't see Greece dropping points here.

[mcege]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - day 6

Ukraine doesn't have imperative to win this one' date=' but if they lose and Belgium beat France, Ukraine is out! So they will fight and push to be SURE they are through to the next round. [/quote'] If this happens, 4 teams will be in same points, so points difference among the games between those 4 teams will be important. France already had beaten Ukraine and Great Britain, only get beaten by Belgium, so they're through. Belgium had beaten France and Great Britain, only lost to Ukraine, so they're through as well. Ukraine had beaten only Belgium among them, but lost to France by just 7 points. Great Britain had beaten only Ukraine among them, but lost to France by 23 points. And they lost to Belgium by 5 points, as well. So, if that unexpected scenario comes through, Great Britain will be out, unless they beat Ukraine with 20+ points...(I didn't do simple math, but it's definitely 20+ something.)

[mcege]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - day 6 Croatia - Czech Republic I'm not underestimating to win against the hosts, but Slovenia didn't have a team to beat four teams in a row, at all. I wrote about Croatia several times and I see them a team which is not capable of beating four teams in a row, as well. Motivation edge doesn't exist, since Croatia will be out if they lost and Spain&Slovenia beats their opponents, which don't have anything to play. Despite still struggling behind the arc, Czech team showed some signs about their offensive potential yesterday, I'm expecting them to keep it up from there. Some struggling, but crucial players like T.Satoransky and D.Jelinek seemed lively yesterday, I expect them to do well against Croatians' nothing special back court defense. This game should be decided by last couple balls. Czech Rep.(+4.5) 5/10 @ 1.99 Serbia - Montenegro This game means nothing for Serbia, as they're already through and as Montenegro is already eliminated. (If Serbia wins, they can not carry this W to next round.) I'm pretty sure that they care more about Latvia-Macedonia game, as Macedonia to advance can turn out to be a nightmare scenario for Serbian team. (In that scenario, instead of starting 3W-0L, they'll start the second round with 2W-1L) Coach Ivkovic already complained about how he had to use some players too much against Latvia, he'll definitely give a good rest to only aged players N.Krstic and R.Katic. This game means nothing for Montenegro as well, but they kept close all the games they played, if they had more experience, or two biggest stars of this nation came to Slovenia, results will be definitely different. I expect them to play with a motivation to give a good fight against to their neighbors. Serbians will also not play for losing, as this is an ex-Yugoslavian derby anyway, despite being the most friendly one, but they have three more important games to think about, whereas it's a good opportunity for Montenegrins to finish the tournament with a good mood, after couple unlucky games. Montenegro(+4) 5/10 @ 1.971 Lithuania - Bosnia & Herzegovina Lithuanian team once again disappointed yesterday, but they got saved by K.Lavrinovic, who's at the last years of his career...Some players played heavy minutes. There is slim chance for them to get eliminated, but they have to be beaten by 15+ something points to B&H, which defines how slim are those chances. And also if Macedonia beats Latvia in the early game, those chances are gone, too. I wrote about them several times, there's nothing changed. I won two very close spreads against them for consecutive days, but they would've won much easier, although they seem to be lucky ones, when you look at the scoreboard. Bosnia is in a must win situation, they won two consecutive games, so they proofed their reaction to must win games. Aco Petrovic is not definitely a coach I like, but I respect him as he managed to get his team back in track, after starting bad to the tournament. They have a team heavily depended to some players at the offensive end, but all jobs are well defined, they showed some good spirit lately and they have bodies to cope with Lithuanians' tough front court. Three days in a row, I get points against Lithuania. B&H(+8) 5/10 @ 1.99

[mcege]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - day 6 ps: I have a mistake Serbia will advance with 2W-0L, not 3-0, if Latvia wins and they won anyway, so coach Ivkovic is happy...

[Alfie White]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - day 6 Found very nice value in Mirza Teletovic to score under 19.5 with local bookie. Especially now when BiH can't advance further!

[mcege]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - day 6

Found very nice value in Mirza Teletovic to score under 19.5 with local bookie. Especially now when BiH can't advance further!

If Bosnia and Serbia wins, Bosnia will have same W-L with Lithuania and Latvia, then it'll decided on points difference. Latvia has the edge as they beat Bosnia by 11, but there's still chance for Bosnians to advance. If Bosnia win and Serbia loses, then 4 teams will have same W-L and then again, Latvia will have the edge, because they kept it closer against Serbs, then Bosnians. But, depending on the points difference, Bosnians still have chance to qualify. I'm double checking for couple minutes, may be I'm missing something because of lack of sleep, but I seem to me right.

[Alfie White]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - day 6 You are right, just found this one: ON THE LAST DAY: Lithuania will qualify if they defeat Bosnia and Herzegovina OR lose by 9 points or less. Bosnia and Herzegovina will qualify if they defeat Lithuania by 10 points or more. Thus, AVOID LOL :)

[mcege]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - day 6 Day 6 Recap: Lithuania - B&H: 72-78 +4.95 Croatia - Czech Rep.: 70-53 -5 Ukraine - Great Britain: 87-68 -5 Serbia - Montenegro: 76-83 +4.855 EuroBasket 2013 stats: 16W 0V 9L 104u staked +24.717​u %23.766 ROI End of first round, it had been a good round, but it could definitely be better. I obviously had some selectivity problems, I missed an over bet more then 50 points, it's unacceptable. I avoided total points bets after first couple days, and that'll remain same for the first matches of the second round. It has been a very surprising tournament, but I expect surprising teams to start struggling, or better to say some big favorites to get more serious. No game tomorrow, it'll be perfect for me, too. I couldn't sleep well lately, since Nfl also started, I need a rest and refreshment, as well.