What happens to teams the match after having two men sent off?

[allthethings]

I posed this question in one of the threads a couple weeks back...the question had to do with whether people overreact to teams playing "short-handed" the following week. I'm going to tally up these games, just to see whether we can learn anything. I personally think that there's probably enormous value playing on these teams because of the way people overreact to team news. Here are last weekend's results: Home (4-1-1) 2.01 Halifax 2-0 Dartford 2.54 Wolfsburg 4-0 Schalke 2.72 Oeste 0-2 Joinville 2.09 New England 2-0 Chicago 2.13 Assyriska 1-0 Ljungskile 4.13 Pecsi 1-1 / Gyor Away (0-2-3) Ajax 2-1 Feyenoord / 7.02 DVTK 1-1 Kecskemeti / 3.60 Cobreloa 2-1 Santiago Wanderers / 4.03 Bohs 1-0 Shamrock Rovers / 1.50 Botafogo 3-3 Internacional / 3.43 Here are this weekend's teams: Fortuna Sittard Figueriense St Polten Dunkerque Lucon Dordrecht Volsunger Athlone Chivas USA Fjolnir Slovacko Deportivo Quito (3 red cards)

[zbrochu]

Re: What happens to teams the match after having two men sent off? Good idea, I like it!

[aliando]

Re: What happens to teams the match after having two men sent off? Good luck :ok

[allthethings]

Re: What happens to teams the match after having two men sent off? Here's where we are as of this moment, with a game still to play later on. First we have the short-handed sides at home the following week: [ATTACH]5175[/ATTACH] Then we have the short-handed sides away the following week: [ATTACH]5176[/ATTACH] Home sides are 6-2-3, away sides 1-3-6. Note that so far, every home side of 2.6 or below has won, and none have conceded. We'll see where it goes from here (the images include the teams who had two men sent off this week), but I'm intrigued that so far only one short-handed side has been a favorite in its next game.

[YorkshireFootyFan]

Re: What happens to teams the match after having two men sent off? Just a small point, Halifax's next game after going down to nine men was at home to Wrexham on the Tuesday, Dartford was the following Saturday.

[allthethings]

Re: What happens to teams the match after having two men sent off?

Just a small point' date=' Halifax's next game after going down to nine men was at home to Wrexham on the Tuesday, Dartford was the following Saturday.[/quote'] Thanks for that. Also a win, at even better odds. I'm going to update soon.

[allthethings]

Re: What happens to teams the match after having two men sent off? Update: Home sides 10-5-3, away sides 2-4-11, with three games today. At odds of under 4.0, home sides the game after having two men sent off are 10-2-1. It might be beginner's luck. The home sides might go on a losing streak a couple weeks from now. I think more important than the record at the moment are the odds listed. The home sides between 2.0 and 3.99 are 8-1-1. Fantastic value for these teams, caused by the market overreacting to team news. My interest in this goes beyond this particular situation. Two men sent off in one game is just an easy way to count. Plenty of teams have multiple missings in a given week, either because of injury, suspension, international duty or what have you. I suppose it might make sense to try to get a better count of all such games. But actually, most punters don't look that deeply into games. They hear "Team x is missing half their defensive line!" and bet heavily against them. They forget, when two strikers are suspended and they write, "Who is going to score goals?" that there will be two replacement strikers, even if they personally have never heard of them. Some truths: Replacements are sometimes better than the regulars. Replacements are highly motivated to show what they can do. Teams adjust their play and strategy when forced to deal with missing players. The stats so far: [ATTACH]5192[/ATTACH] [ATTACH]5193[/ATTACH]

[allthethings]

Re: What happens to teams the match after having two men sent off? Updating just the home sides. 13-2-1 in all games under 4.00 after today's two wins by Halifax and Mallorca...both of which I played, bringing my record to 5-1 (lost on Mattersburg). I really don't know what to think of it...it could just be a random occurrence...but I'm going to keep playing them if they're going to keep winning. Will update the away sides after tomorrow's games, none of which I'll be playing. The away sides are 2-5-13 to this point...only possible profitable angle is draws in games in which the short-handed away side has odds of between 3.0 and 6.0: so far 0-4-5. [ATTACH]5206[/ATTACH]

[allthethings]

Re: What happens to teams the match after having two men sent off? Away sides are 3-6-15...today I played against the short-handed sides and won two of them. As with the homes sides, I feel like I'm leading a charmed life here...I have no idea whether this will continue, but I played Hodd at 3.27 for example, and at those kinds of odds you don't need to win too many to see some profit. I have to attach these are separate screen captures...the games so far, and the upcoming matches: [ATTACH]5209[/ATTACH] [ATTACH]5210[/ATTACH]

[allthethings]

Re: What happens to teams the match after having two men sent off? Quick update, without tables. I was betting the short-handed home sides in particular, and betting the home sides against the short-handed away sides, and the profits were piling up. At that point the numbers were: Home sides the match after having two men sent off: 33-6-1 (82%) Home sides to beat the away sides the match after the away sides had two men sent off: 28-8-4 (70%) Then I doubled and sometimes tripled the bet....bad move. Since then: Home sides the match after having two men sent off: 8-6-6 (40%) Home sides to beat the away sides the match after the away sides had two men sent off: 6-3-4 (46%) This pretty much sums up my punting career. Anyway, there's still a lot to like here. The short-handed home sides of under 3.5 have gone 41-12-7 (68%). Premier-league sides of over 3.5 have an interesting record: 0-4-3. The most fascinating tidbit here is that short-handed home sides of under 2.0 have gone 21-6-5 (66%), meaning that the sides with the better odds of 2.0 to 3.5 have gone 20-6-2 (71%). Short-handed away sides have a much more difficult mix of results. Those with odds of 3.5 or over really do lose more often than not: 1-4-19 (79%), but you're getting odds of under 2.0 in virtually all of those games. The only question at this point is whether 40% or 65% is the true reflection of these sides' strength. I would say that I'm convinced that the value is there, particularly for home sides who have had two men sent off: The betting public often overreacts enough that these home sides get priced to 2.5 when they'd probably be 2.0 absent the team news. Yesterday I won with Guarantingueta at home after odds went from 2.3 to 2.6 at kickoff, and today I won with Cork City home to short-handed Shelbourne after odds rose from 1.5 to 1.67.