HT/FT Betting Advice

[johnmcd22]

Hello everyone, this is my first thread so sorry if I have made a mistake or posted in the wrong area (fingers crossed I am ok). Basically I started building a system last year using form and stats to try and build a value betting system. After inconsistent testing and lack of time I scrapped it in the end and left betting for the rest of the season. However with the PL starting this weekend I have done some research into HT/FT betting. I have, at the moment, a basic system based on the odds of outcomes of the last two seasons of PL matches and I am trying to correspond this into HT/FT bets for this season. Before I go into any more concrete details on the system (for all I know it could be useless) I was wondering what is the best way to bet on HT/FT outcomes? Is it best to stick to singles while using the same stake each time? Or should I put my selections into an accumulator or lucky 15 which I have seen some punters do? Thanks for any help.

[aliando]

Re: HT/FT Betting Advice Most people will advise you to stick to singles as this would generally give safer returns in long run. As for stakes, stick to bets being worth a small percentage of your overall bank (eg between 2-5%). With this strategy, you can apply this to your back testing and see the results. The other thing I would add is if you find a strategy is that bad, can you make money by laying it...? :welcome to posting on PL

[froment]

Re: HT/FT Betting Advice

Hello everyone' date=' this is my first thread so sorry if I have made a mistake or posted in the wrong area (fingers crossed I am ok).[/quote'] Hi, John; :welcome to the forum! I'd say this thread would feel like home in Punters Tools and General Betting Help, but let's leave it here at the moment, no harm done. ;) I'd echo both Aliando's statements - I prefer singles over accumulators, too, and staking plan based on fixed bank percentage is very good one, allowing you to increase your stakes when you're on a good run, and vice versa, decreasing the stakes after loss(es), thus keeping your bank safe. Level stakes is also good plan, and you usually can hear punters saying that if your system does not work at level stakes, it will not work under any other staking system. Back to "singles vs. accumulators" debate; it's an ethernal one, and I think there is no definite answer which one is exactly better - it's all up to personal preferences and punter's ability to select matches. There is a couple of good threads here on PL discussing that issue, so you might get better idea of their pros and cons: http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/97748-Singles-Betting-Accumulators http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/73658-Why-are-accumulators-bad There are probably more threads on that topic, but I had these two bookmarked. Good luck with your betting! You might want to keep records of your bets within your own thread within Glory Hunters forum!

[johnmcd22]

Re: HT/FT Betting Advice Thank you. I will look at doing singles to start off with. Right I will elaborate on the system a bit as I am coming to a few cross roads that I am open to any ones interpretation. I also do not know if any one else has already tried this so if they have, I apologise. Basically I have collaborated data from the past 3 PL seasons. I have worked out the total number of HT/FT result combinations out of the 1140 games. EG. HH or 11 occurred 317 times, and HD or 1X occurred 57 times. I have then looked at the pre game fixed odds of all of these fixtures and averaged them out over the season. So for HH for the home team to win the match the odds were on average 2.04, to draw, 4.10 and for the away team to win, 5.92. Having done this for all the outcomes I then want to use the current pre match fixed odds to try and determine the most likely HT/FT result. If you are still with me, an example is this weekends games between Arsenal and Aston Villa. The odds I have found online are 1.36 for a home win, 4.50 for the draw and 8.50 for an away win. Corresponding this to my table it fits in and is most similar to the HH pre match data so I am inclined to bet on that this weekend. I sometimes have a match that is linked to two different HTFT results so do not know which one to choose? Is there a way I can factor in the amount of times a certain result has come up in the past such as HD only coming up 57 times in three seasons compared to HH 317 times. I hope this makes sense? And if anyone has any constructive help or critiscm feel welcome.

[johnmcd22]

Re: HT/FT Betting Advice Starting a Championship database for it as well. I am struggling in matching the odds currently as there are many similar. Some can fall into two of the HTFT outcomes. Any ideas on how best to differentiate?

[brookes]

Re: HT/FT Betting Advice I used to bet ht/ft on short priced favourite but I was recomended here that I should bet on the ht only due to the risk of the win/draw or even win/loss. using your stats and bet365 odds on the first match in the EPL Liverpool win 1.36 Liverpool/Liverpool 1.83 Liverpool ht 1.80 If I've read your stats correct ht/ft win/win came up 317 whilst ht/ft win/draw came up 57 so 57/374 is 15% for it to be value ht/ft odds needs to be 15% better than ht odds I've based my decision on just one match and could easily be wrong for the whole weekend fixtures. Have you grouped your stats into particular bands of odds i.e. home win 1.20 - 1.35 , 1.36- 1.50 1.51-1.65 etc . If you have could changing these "bands" give you better selections? At the moment I'm a ht only bettor unless you can persuade me otherwise p.s. are the 57 matches for the ht win , ft draw or loss?

[zbrochu]

Re: HT/FT Betting Advice Hi John, I would stick to singles, I wrote more about it here: http://www.30bets.com/singles-versus-accumulators/ Good luck with HT/FT. I was playign with this market a bit and I noticed that biggets value is HT/FT H/H or A/A for high priced underdogs. Often when upset is expected it is 0-1 by half time and they defend strongly to deliver a 0-1 full time.

[MPLouis]

Re: HT/FT Betting Advice Another thing to check is the competitiveness of the odds on the HT/FT market. What is the bookies' over-round or margin? I am guessing their margin might be higher which means it will be harder to make money by betting on that market than on a more popular one like, say, the 1/2/X market.

[johnmcd22]

Re: HT/FT Betting Advice Thanks for the responses! I will look at the links posted as I am always tempted by the accumulator but I am open to try different things for this system. The 57 times was for HD so Home win at HT and Draw at FT. The way I have it set up is: HD - Home win at Ht, Draw at full time etc [TABLE=width: 500]

[TR] [TD] HT/FT Result [/TD] [TD] Avg odds for Home Win [/TD] [TD] Avg odds for a draw [/TD] [TD] Avg odds for Away win [/TD] [TD] Times HT/FT result has happened (1140) [/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] HD [/TD] [TD] 2.29 [/TD] [TD] 3.45 [/TD] [TD] 4.22 [/TD] [TD] 57 [/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] AD [/TD] [TD] 2.68 [/TD] [TD] 3.57 [/TD] [TD] 4.17 [/TD] [TD] 64 [/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] DD [/TD] [TD] 2.76 [/TD] [TD] 3.49 [/TD] [TD] 3.80 [/TD] [TD] 191 [/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] HH [/TD] [TD] 2.04 [/TD] [TD] 4.10 [/TD] [TD] 5.92 [/TD] [TD] 317 [/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] AA [/TD] [TD] 3.47 [/TD] [TD] 3.50 [/TD] [TD] 3.17 [/TD] [TD] 188 [/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] DH [/TD] [TD] 2.18 [/TD] [TD] 3.45 [/TD] [TD] 5.48 [/TD] [TD] 170 [/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] DA [/TD] [TD] 3.08 [/TD] [TD] 3.57 [/TD] [TD] 3.62 [/TD] [TD] 106 [/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] HA [/TD] [TD] 3.20 [/TD] [TD] 3.60 [/TD] [TD] 3.18 [/TD] [TD] 18 [/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] AH [/TD] [TD] 2.35 [/TD] [TD] 3.50 [/TD] [TD] 4.68 [/TD] [TD] 29 [/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] In bold are the odds that would win on average if betting on just the match outcome. I then try to match an upcoming game to the table. so for example. The Liverpool match is most like the HH result based on the pre match odds and the table of previous odds. Hopefully you can see how I want the table to work and where I am coming from. And also the problems for instance, if I had a match with ore match fixed odds of 2.2 for Home win, 3.3 for draw and 3.3 for away win there are two selections I could choose; HD and DH.

[zbrochu]

Re: HT/FT Betting Advice

Another thing to check is the competitiveness of the odds on the HT/FT market. What is the bookies' over-round or margin? I am guessing their margin might be higher which means it will be harder to make money by betting on that market than on a more popular one like' date=' say, the 1/2/X market.[/quote'] Yes thats good point, margins are high and the only serious bookmaker that offers this kind of market is sbobet and bet365. The rest is joke that will limit you once you win anything substantial.

[johnmcd22]

Re: HT/FT Betting Advice Thanks for the input guys. After much thought and trying different calculations, I have come to the conclusion that this system would not and could not be successful anyway unless anyone can provide a new direction for it to go.