Bundesliga - 9th - 11th August

[Aidymac]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 9 August 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FC Bayern München v Borussia Mönchengladbach (19:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.18[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]8.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]22[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.98 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 10 August 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]1899 Hoffenheim v 1. FC Nürnberg (14:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.40 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Bayer 04 Leverkusen v SC Freiburg (14:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.45[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]8.2[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.16 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FC Augsburg v Borussia Dortmund (14:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.56[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.16 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Hannover 96 v VfL Wolfsburg (14:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.1[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.43 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Hertha BSC v Eintracht Frankfurt (14:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.35 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Eintracht Braunschweig v Werder Bremen (17:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.6[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.37 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 11 August 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]1. FSV Mainz 05 v VfB Stuttgart (14:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.75 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FC Schalke 04 v Hamburger SV (16:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.68[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.71 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[neilovan]

Re: Bundesliga - 9th - 11th August Augsburg v Dortmund Dortmund finished off last season on fire for over/under 2.5 goal betting. They were over 8 of their last 9 away. Only twice in 9 games did they fail to score 2 or more. They also scored in every 1st half in 8 of 9 away games Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 bet365

[harry_rag]

Re: Bundesliga - 9th - 11th August Bayern v BMG: I like the prospect of the away team scoring here. They've done so in 9 of the last 10 Bundesliga meetings between the teams, 4 out of 5 away from home. Based on the spreads I'd say there's some value in Coral's 6/5 for them to score >0.5 and 7/1 for >1.5. In 3 of the 4 away games they've scored in they've done so before half time and in the other they'd scored by the 62nd minute. I've therefore decided to sell the time of their 1st goal at 70 with Spreadex and, more speculatively, their 2nd at 86.5. Respective sell prices with SPIN are just 65 and 85.

[harry_rag]

Re: Bundesliga - 9th - 11th August

Augsburg v Dortmund Dortmund finished off last season on fire for over/under 2.5 goal betting. They were over 8 of their last 9 away. Only twice in 9 games did they fail to score 2 or more. They also scored in every 1st half in 8 of 9 away games Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 bet365

Dortmund only managed 2 clean sheets on the road last season and conceded more than once in 5 games (3x3 and 2x2) while Augsburg were shut out 6 times at home scoring more than once in 5 games (also 3x3 and 2x2). I've bought Augsburg's goal rush at 10 with Spreadex (same with SPIN). Breaks even for one goal, profit after that. Their average make up in that market at home was 11.7 while teams hosting Dortmund averaged 14.06.

[sixgoals]

Re: Bundesliga - 9th - 11th August all this spreadex sounds a bit too confusing - get on BMG over 2 corners in game at EVS PP - got 4 vs Munchen away last season (1-1) and 5 vs Dort away eventhough they got smacked 5 nil

[1907zico]

Re: Bundesliga - 9th - 11th August Bundesliga Start: FC Bayern München vs Borussia Mönchengladbach When I have tingly fingers I know it is going to happen again. Bundesliga 1 is about to start in a few hours a season many people are looking forward to! Pre Season Bayern: A lot has happened ever since the last whistle was blown in a Bundesliga 1 game this year. Bayern won the tripple and introduced a new era with Pep Guardiola. A logical consequence was that Mario Gomez had to leave the club as his qualities on the pitch were expected to not suit well to the football Bayern wants to celebrate on the pitch. Whilst Petersen was sold to Bremen, (he was on loan before) another highly talented player Emre Can did leave the club towards Leverkusen to make the next step in his career and get more minutes in Bundesliga. Bayern has made good experiences loaning players to Leverkusen in the past (Toni Kroos) and has included a "buy back" clause in the deal which leaves the door open to get an established Bundesliga player back in the squad some day. However, it was not Petersen and Emre Can that media was covering the last weeks, but the transfers of Mario Götze and Thiago Alcántara. There are and were rumours that Neymar was Guardiola's first choice, but after discussions with Uli Hoeneß the club decided that they do not want to run through another riskful South America transfer after bad experiences with players like Sosa and Breno. Götze is not really comparable to Neymar, but he has proven that he has an edge playing football in Bundesliga 1 and has already gained a lot of experience during Borussia Dortmunds CL campaign. During the final press conference in Riva del Garda Pep did surprise quite a lot journalists when he answered a question about a possible Thiago transfers with the words: "We have to play six competitions, I need the full squad. We need the special talents of Thiago. I think he will be good for us." "We need the special talents of Thiago", is the most interesting piece here. A tripple winning Bayern side with players such as Schweinsteiger, Kroos, Ribery, Robben, Mandzukic, Müller and Götze does need the special talents of Thiago? This sentence really caught my attention and having not seen much of Thiago I was waiting every second to get a read on what Guardiola meant with this. It did not take long before I could witness what Guardiola meant. During the Audi Cup Thiago indicated what additional qualities he can bring to the squad. He has got a great eye and touch on the ball for passes in the area between center backs and goalkeeper. Those kind of passes were pretty rare last season where Bayern mostly tried to exploit defenses on the wings to get the ball in the box in different ways. Either by crossing for headers (Mandzukic and Müller being first aims), or bringing the ball in low to the first post or back to the penalty point. In short, Bayern has added another possibility to create chances making them even more unpredictable in terms of defending their attacks. The downside of having Thiago in the first line up was visible during the 2:4 Super Cup loss against Dortmund. Thiago played as the only defensive midfield player, adding the strengths mentioned above, but making the Bayern side more vulnerable defensively. They looked weak on defending breaks and Thiago gave away some big possessions when going forward. Unlike journalists or Bayern haters, I still enjoy this "downside" of Thiago with care. Not only did Dortmund had some element of luck involved in their goals, Bayern did also miss established players like Neuer, Martinez, Ribery and Schweinsteiger in their line up which does not give us the chance to see the final potential of the team running with Thiago. It will remain to be seen how Thiago can link up when Bayern will start with their best possible line up and all players will be close to their best match fitness. Pep Guardiola's biggest task will be to find the right balance in his line ups and try to avoid using players on positions they simply do not feel comfortable with. Best example is Mandzukic, who does not seem to be very pleased so far if we have a look at his body language in the last games. He was used on the wings and had to cover a couple of tasks which he seem to have not enjoyed. However, the discussions about Lewandowski and his possible transfer to Bayern could be the reason for his behaviour as well, so that most people could have a wrong view on the Pep and Mandzukic relationship here. The Game for Bayern: For the game against Gladbach Badstuber, Götze and Luiz Gustavo (officially knee problems, but linked with many teams and might leave the team) are not available. Thiago is doubtful with a flu. I do not really want to play a guessing game on the line up as Bayern has got more than a handful of options. I will try two line ups that I think might be likely: Neuer - Lahm - Boateng - Dante - Alaba - Martinez - Kroos - Schweinsteiger - Ribery - Robben - Mandzukic (Müller) or Neuer - Lahm - Martinez - Dante - Alaba - Schweinsteiger - Ribery - Kroos - Müller (Shaqiri) - Robben - Mandzukic (Müller) Pre Season Gladbach: Whilst a lot has happened around Bayern, Gladbach stayed under the radar of the big teams doing their solid work to setup a competetive squad out this season. Selling Igor de Camargo to Hoffenheim and back up Leckie to FSV Frankfurt is not a big downgrade whereas Raffael and Max Kruse are very promising transfers for Gladbach. Raffael did already work together with coach Favre in Berlin, where they had a very successful season together and both know what they expect from each other. Max Kruse had an amazing season in Freiburg where the young squad celebrated great passing and countering football suiting Kruse very well. Favre will love to have him in his arsenal. If we remember back to the times where Reus was playing for Gladbach, they were used to defend very tough leaving very few chances for their opponents to get between the lines (which Guardiola praised in the pre game conference as well). Based on this defending they started quick counter attacks with their technically strong midfielders (Arango) and fast attacking options (Herrmann, Reus). This should be again an option with players like Raffael and Kruse joining the team, whilst it was mostly not possible last season as Luuk de Jong took over the striker position interpretating the role way different than Reus did in the past. The Game for Gladbach: The expected line up for Gladbach seems to be the following: ter Stegen - Daems (Wendt) - Dominguez - Stranzl - Jantschke - Herrmann (Rupp) - Nordtveidt (Kramer) - Xhaka - Arango (Younes) - Kruse - Raffael In extreme cases Gladbach could basically be playing 4-6-0 to create a full midfield and make it hard for Bayern to find gaps and create chances, whereas when winning the ball they hold enough technically strong players (Arango, Herrmann, Raffael, Kruse) to introduce counter attacks. The speed of Herrmann and Kruse could help to spot some space on the break for Gladbach whereas Arango and Raffael will be mainly responsible for the passing. Another option Gladbach holds to score goals is by set pieces. Raffael and Arango are real weapons on that so that Bayern must not only be careful to avoid dangerous counters but also avoid stopping counters by fouls. Verdict: Not only on paper Bayern are the favourites. Bookies did setup the main line -2.5/+2.5 when opening the prices on handicaps which suggested Bayern should be winning by something around 2 or 3 goals difference based on statistics. Having beat Gladbach 5:1 in 60 minutes during the Audi Cup did indicate Bayerns strengths and the danger Gladbach will face. However, Favre has always proven to be able to setup a team that is tough to play against and he has done that successful against Bayern as well. Last four results between the sides were 1:1 in Gladbach, 3:3 in Gladbach, 1:0 in München and 0:1 in München. Those results indicate why Pep Guardiola is not throwing out empty phrases when he says that "Gladbach is defending very strong allowing no space between the lines". We will be facing a very interesting game between two uneven sides on paper, but with two teams that will try to exploit each other in terms of tactics and gain an edge, even if it might turn out to be a very small one for Gladbach. The market seems to be believing that Gladbach can get an edge and the handicap line has moved quite a lot, the main lines are now -2/+2. Betting wise I had no value when I started writing my article, but with the big move on Gladbach I am getting to an area where looking at a Bayern bet might get interesting. I see Bayern a little stronger than last season although I expect a few surprises will happen against them because of the adjustment period the players have to go through and the new ideas they are facing by Pep Guardiola. This could be a chance for Gladbach together with the fact that not all the players are at their very best level yet for Bayern (Schweinsteiger, Kroos, Martinez to name a few). Giving some respect to the move by the market and taking into account not optimal team news for Bayern I will still need better price to get involved on the Bayern side! Hope we can all enjoy the game, good season to everyone! Cheers 1907zico

[neilovan]

Re: Bundesliga - 9th - 11th August Schalke v Hamburg I like both the BTTS and the over 2.5 in this game. Schalke finished the season 4 of their last 5 BTTS at home with 18 goals in 5 games. Hamburg away 4 of last 5 BTTS , with 25 goals in 5 games (OK 9-2 Bayern :) Looking forward to seeing youngster Leon Goretzka and Klaus Jan Huntelaar combination. The odds on the over/under are lower so I would go both teams to score here. BTTS at 1.83 bet365

[Lambert7]

I might be missing something but coral have shalke odds on to win with hamburg priced at 6/1 yet they also have hamburg odds on to score 1st whilst shalke are priced at 11/5. Odd?

[harry_rag]

Re: Bundesliga - 9th - 11th August

I might be missing something but coral have shalke odds on to win with hamburg priced at 6/1 yet they also have hamburg odds on to score 1st whilst shalke are priced at 11/5. Odd?

Now out to 12/5! Basically it's a transcription error and they've got the prices the wrong way round (similar in other team goal related markets). It's a classic example of an obviously palpable error. You could chance your arm with a small bet but, given the firm in question, you run the risk of bringing forward when they'll close your account as well as having the bet palped!

[harry_rag]

Re: Bundesliga - 9th - 11th August Schalke v Hamburg: Bought Hamburg's goal rush at 10 with Spreadex. Bet loses if they fail to score, breaks even for 1 goal, doubles your money for 2 and pays more for any goals beyond that. Hamburg may lose heavily but I like the prospects of a bet that breaks even if they score once and shows a profit for 2 or more. They failed to score in just 4 of their away games last season, which is the same as the number of clean sheets managed by Schalke at home. They scored more than once in 7 games and exactly once in 6, with Schalke's visitors doing so 6 times and 7 times respectively. Hamburg's average make up in the goal rush market away from home was 15.3 while for away teams at Schalke it was 13.7.

[Lambert7]

Now out to 12/5! Basically it's a transcription error and they've got the prices the wrong way round (similar in other team goal related markets). It's a classic example of an obviously palpable error. You could chance your arm with a small bet but' date=' given the firm in question, you run the risk of bringing forward when they'll close your account as well as having the bet palped![/quote'] I put it in an acca with van Persie anytime goal scorer and btts in cov v bris city and leic v Leeds. Only need btts in leic v Leeds and shalke to score 1st now so will they cancel it if it wins?

[harry_rag]

Re: Bundesliga - 9th - 11th August

I put it in an acca with van Persie anytime goal scorer and btts in cov v bris city and leic v Leeds. Only need btts in leic v Leeds and shalke to score 1st now so will they cancel it if it wins?

Unlucky with the Leicester game letting you down. At worst they would have voided the selection and settled the remaining bets as a treble. Otherwise, they could have settled the bet applying the correct price. Or you might have been lucky and had the bet settled at the price you took!

[clarky101]

Re: Bundesliga - 9th - 11th August

Schalke v Hamburg: Bought Hamburg's goal rush at 10 with Spreadex. Bet loses if they fail to score, breaks even for 1 goal, doubles your money for 2 and pays more for any goals beyond that. Hamburg may lose heavily but I like the prospects of a bet that breaks even if they score once and shows a profit for 2 or more. They failed to score in just 4 of their away games last season, which is the same as the number of clean sheets managed by Schalke at home. They scored more than once in 7 games and exactly once in 6, with Schalke's visitors doing so 6 times and 7 times respectively. Hamburg's average make up in the goal rush market away from home was 15.3 while for away teams at Schalke it was 13.7.

Good shout on this.....somehow managed to miss this tip as i like a good spread....well done sir;;;

[harry_rag]

Re: Bundesliga - 9th - 11th August Thanks, glad not everyone finds spread betting "too confusing"! :unsure Will try and post a bit earlier in future though I do tend to be a bit "last minute" with a lot of my bets. I am a big fan of the spreads though will always take the fixed odds option if I think it offers the better value.