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League 1 - 2nd - 3rd August


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[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 2 August 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Sheffield United v Notts County (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.95[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.3[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.26 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 3 August 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Bristol City v Bradford City (15:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.95[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.6[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.64 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Carlisle United v Leyton Orient (15:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.45[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.1[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.65 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Crawley Town v Coventry City (15:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.42[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.65[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.49 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Crewe Alexandra v Rotherham United (15:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.45[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.96 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Gillingham v Colchester United (15:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.1[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.8[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.51 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Peterborough United v Swindon Town (15:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.05[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.95 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Port Vale v Brentford (15:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.52[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.59 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Preston North End v Wolverhampton Wanderers (15:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.45[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.72[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.11 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Shrewsbury Town v Milton Keynes Dons (15:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.54[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.87 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Stevenage v Oldham Athletic (15:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.46 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Walsall v Tranmere Rovers (15:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.22[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.79 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Re: League 1 - 2nd - 3rd August Peterborough v Swindon Peterborough have to be worth a play at over evens against Swindon, guess they are that price because they haven't yet replaced Gayle who went to Palace for £4.5m, they are still trying hard to get someone in though and it will probably be for big money. They had a club record bid (probably 1.3-1.5m) rejected for Nakki Wells who did very well at Bradford last season and according to the chairman they are still trying to bring someone in for the first game. They have Tommy Rowe and Lee Tomlin, who could play at a higher level and got their main transfer target of the summer in nicking Jack Payne from us for 750k which could prove to be a steal..in short they are one of the favourites to go up for a reason, their budget won't be massively different to what it was in the Championship and will be beyond most in the league, bar probably Wolves. Swindon are skint and still without a manager, James Collins left for Hibs last week for 150k who was their leading scorer last season, Simon Ferry another key player has gone to Portsmouth along with Joe Devera, Flint's gone to Bristol City, De Vita's been released, Gary Roberts has gone to Chesterfield, Alan McCormack has gone to Brentford - these are all players who played 30+ games for Swindon last year so it is a majority of their first team line-up. From what I can see they have replaced them with a load of loan players from Spurs, 7 of the blighters! Ryan Harley has also come in from Brighton and should be fine at this level. Their budget has been slashed and with so many players leaving it will surely take a bit of time for the new guys to gel. Peterborough will finish in the top 3 this season I'm sure of it and they should be winning games like this. Peterborough - 2.05 - hills - 2 Points

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Re: League 1 - 2nd - 3rd August

Peterborough v Swindon Peterborough have to be worth a play at over evens against Swindon, guess they are that price because they haven't yet replaced Gayle who went to Palace for £4.5m, they are still trying hard to get someone in though and it will probably be for big money. They had a club record bid (probably 1.3-1.5m) rejected for Nakki Wells who did very well at Bradford last season and according to the chairman they are still trying to bring someone in for the first game. They have Tommy Rowe and Lee Tomlin, who could play at a higher level and got their main transfer target of the summer in nicking Jack Payne from us for 750k which could prove to be a steal..in short they are one of the favourites to go up for a reason, their budget won't be massively different to what it was in the Championship and will be beyond most in the league, bar probably Wolves. Swindon are skint and still without a manager, James Collins left for Hibs last week for 150k who was their leading scorer last season, Simon Ferry another key player has gone to Portsmouth along with Joe Devera, Flint's gone to Bristol City, De Vita's been released, Gary Roberts has gone to Chesterfield, Alan McCormack has gone to Brentford - these are all players who played 30+ games for Swindon last year so it is a majority of their first team line-up. From what I can see they have replaced them with a load of loan players from Spurs, 7 of the blighters! Ryan Harley has also come in from Brighton and should be fine at this level. Their budget has been slashed and with so many players leaving it will surely take a bit of time for the new guys to gel. Peterborough will finish in the top 3 this season I'm sure of it and they should be winning games like this. Peterborough - 2.05 - hills - 2 Points
Peterborough have signed 20 year old striker Britt Assombalonga from Watford for a club record fee, he scored 16 for Southend last season and Southend were a mid-table L2 team, looks a good signing on paper.
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Peterborough v Swindon Peterborough have to be worth a play at over evens against Swindon, guess they are that price because they haven't yet replaced Gayle who went to Palace for £4.5m, they are still trying hard to get someone in though and it will probably be for big money. They had a club record bid (probably 1.3-1.5m) rejected for Nakki Wells who did very well at Bradford last season and according to the chairman they are still trying to bring someone in for the first game. They have Tommy Rowe and Lee Tomlin, who could play at a higher level and got their main transfer target of the summer in nicking Jack Payne from us for 750k which could prove to be a steal..in short they are one of the favourites to go up for a reason, their budget won't be massively different to what it was in the Championship and will be beyond most in the league, bar probably Wolves. Swindon are skint and still without a manager, James Collins left for Hibs last week for 150k who was their leading scorer last season, Simon Ferry another key player has gone to Portsmouth along with Joe Devera, Flint's gone to Bristol City, De Vita's been released, Gary Roberts has gone to Chesterfield, Alan McCormack has gone to Brentford - these are all players who played 30+ games for Swindon last year so it is a majority of their first team line-up. From what I can see they have replaced them with a load of loan players from Spurs, 7 of the blighters! Ryan Harley has also come in from Brighton and should be fine at this level. Their budget has been slashed and with so many players leaving it will surely take a bit of time for the new guys to gel. Peterborough will finish in the top 3 this season I'm sure of it and they should be winning games like this. Peterborough - 2.05 - hills - 2 Points
I'm not sure moving those players on is such a bad thing though. Joe Devera and Simon Ferry were part of the League Two winning squad, and they're back playing in League Two now. We've heard a lot of rhetoric about "interest" from League One clubs but at the end of the day none broke their backs to sign them. I read today that Swindon have forged an interesting "partnership" with Spurs, which looks to me a bit like they're going to act as their feeder club. Something that would probably be more familiar in Italy, and frowned upon over here. Hence all the furore over Watford. Already they have four Spurs prospects on loan - Defender Grant Hall, midfielders Massimo Luongo, Ryan Mason and Alex Pritchard. They also signed defenders Jack Barthram and Nathan Byrne for free in pre season. So while they may have little money they still might have several very talented players on their books... Or they might not, that's the trouble with loan players.
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Re: League 1 - 2nd - 3rd August Stevenage v Oldham - Both teams to score @ 10/11 William Hill Over the summer we (Oldham) seem to have strengthened our first X1 in every aspect, except for our defence. In pre-season we have been playing a central midfielder in central defence (although he did start his career off as a left back). I think Johnson is going to bring a central defender in on loan but it's not thought he will have done by Saturday. As a result it looks like we will be playing Mellor at centre back which is not his position. Stevenage can be a difficult team at home as they have a small compact ground which i'm guessing most players won't enjoy playing at. Added to that they have a former player in Tounkara so he is likely to score. Going forward we have made some decent additions in Charlie McDonald, Adam Rooney and Johnson Clarke-Harris, and with imo one of the best, if not the best, players in the league in Baxter providing for them I think we will be ok for goals this season. So in summary, an incomplete defence but with some good attacking threat means both teams to score at 10/11 looks a decent price.

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Re: League 1 - 2nd - 3rd August Sheff Utd v Notts County Bet; Buy Total Booking Points @ 44 (Sporting Index) Alternative: Back Over 55 Booking Points @ 9/4 (SkyBet) - I make it 6/4 OR Back Over 46 Booking Points @ 6/4 (Stan James) - I make it 5/6 OR Back Over 30 Booking Points @ 4/7 (Ladbrokes) I make it 4/9 Reasoning; Statistically, based on the methods outlined by Kevin Pullein, I make the line 53, so a mid-point of 42 is 11 points lower than I predict. Last season, Sheff Utd's home games averaged just over 40 points per game, whilst Notts County averaged 45 points per game away from home - the league average over the last 5 seasons is 33 points per game, so as you can see, both of these teams respective home and away fixtures are well above the league average. Referee Keith Stroud averages 39 points per game. These sides have met twice at Bramall Lane in the league in the last few years, the first in 2010/11 produced 85 points whilst last season produced 70 points.

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Re: League 1 - 2nd - 3rd August

Sheff Utd v Notts County Bet; Buy Total Booking Points @ 44 (Sporting Index) Alternative: Back Over 55 Booking Points @ 9/4 (SkyBet) - I make it 6/4 OR Back Over 46 Booking Points @ 6/4 (Stan James) - I make it 5/6 OR Back Over 30 Booking Points @ 4/7 (Ladbrokes) I make it 4/9 Reasoning; Statistically, based on the methods outlined by Kevin Pullein, I make the line 53, so a mid-point of 42 is 11 points lower than I predict. Last season, Sheff Utd's home games averaged just over 40 points per game, whilst Notts County averaged 45 points per game away from home - the league average over the last 5 seasons is 33 points per game, so as you can see, both of these teams respective home and away fixtures are well above the league average. Referee Keith Stroud averages 39 points per game. These sides have met twice at Bramall Lane in the league in the last few years, the first in 2010/11 produced 85 points whilst last season produced 70 points.
I was tempted by the 6/4 for >46 points even before reading your posts and would say it offers the best fixed odds option. Even if the spreads are right in having this in for around 43 points the price for that bet would be a shade under 6/4 (again based on Pullein's approach). Stroud finished last season in fine card flashing form suggesting his average may be on an upward trajectory. I think either the spread buy or the >46 points bet are decent shouts. ps - it might be worth seeing what bookings index prices PP come up with tomorrow too.
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Re: League 1 - 2nd - 3rd August Friday preview: 4pts Notts County (+0.5AH) to beat Sheffield United 1.91 Bet365 Sheffield United’s lack of goals really does worry me and I wouldn’t want to back them at short prices until that is solved. Of course Bramall Lane is a bit of a fortress but Notts County will be rocking up with their confidence high and that should make sure they challenge strongly here. At just under evens for either a draw or an away win via the Asian handicap I think County +0.5 looks a good bet in a game which could easily end all square. I’d prefer to go with the side with the bigger goal threat and that’s the visitors. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/sheffield-united-vs-notts-county-betting-notts-county-s-better-goal-threat-should-secure-them-a-result

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Re: League 1 - 2nd - 3rd August

I'm not sure moving those players on is such a bad thing though. Joe Devera and Simon Ferry were part of the League Two winning squad, and they're back playing in League Two now. We've heard a lot of rhetoric about "interest" from League One clubs but at the end of the day none broke their backs to sign them. I read today that Swindon have forged an interesting "partnership" with Spurs, which looks to me a bit like they're going to act as their feeder club. Something that would probably be more familiar in Italy, and frowned upon over here. Hence all the furore over Watford. Already they have four Spurs prospects on loan - Defender Grant Hall, midfielders Massimo Luongo, Ryan Mason and Alex Pritchard. They also signed defenders Jack Barthram and Nathan Byrne for free in pre season. So while they may have little money they still might have several very talented players on their books... Or they might not, that's the trouble with loan players.
Signing a load of kids with little to no football league experience to fill the void left by senior players leaving looks like a recipe for disaster to me, regardless if they are from the same club or not..good for the lads involved though, they probably have a 3-5% chance of making it at Spurs, with the way the Premiership is now, so it's a chance for them to make an impact and play some games.
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Signing a load of kids with little to no football league experience to fill the void left by senior players leaving looks like a recipe for disaster to me' date=' regardless if they are from the same club or not..good for the lads involved though, they probably have a 3-5% chance of making it at Spurs, with the way the Premiership is now, so it's a chance for them to make an impact and play some games.[/quote'] Maybe I just thought it was interesting as a couple of these lads are hotly rated and would only drop out of the Premier League because of the foreign influx. They could be better technically than what they had.... Time will tell!
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Re: League 1 - 2nd - 3rd August Sheff U v Notts Co As a result of Danny Wilson’s negative strategy, Sheffield United were correctly labelled as an unders team last year, with only 30% of their games going over 2.5 goals. The lack of goalscoring ultimately cost the Blades promotion, and Wilson his job. Looking at the summer signinings, his replacement David Weir appears to have done little to suggest we can assume that United will move away from their unders bias. Notts County also have a goalscoring problem to solve, and have brought in Danny Haynes to address this. All of the above suggests a low scoring game, which of course the odds reflect with under 2.5 goals a very short best price of 1.73. That’s a very short price in what I believe is a more random market than most punters believe, especially as this is opening day and defences could be rusty. I’d price up unders at 1.8 and overs at 2.15. Therefore Im going to play the percentages and back the overs 2.5 with minimum stake. Bet: 1 point on over 2.5 goals at 2.25 (betvictor/pinnaclesports)

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Re: League 1 - 2nd - 3rd August

Sheff U v Notts Co As a result of Danny Wilson’s negative strategy, Sheffield United were correctly labelled as an unders team last year, with only 30% of their games going over 2.5 goals. The lack of goalscoring ultimately cost the Blades promotion, and Wilson his job. Looking at the summer signinings, his replacement David Weir appears to have done little to suggest we can assume that United will move away from their unders bias. Notts County also have a goalscoring problem to solve, and have brought in Danny Haynes to address this. All of the above suggests a low scoring game, which of course the odds reflect with under 2.5 goals a very short best price of 1.73. That’s a very short price in what I believe is a more random market than most punters believe, especially as this is opening day and defences could be rusty. I’d price up unders at 1.8 and overs at 2.15. Therefore Im going to play the percentages and back the overs 2.5 with minimum stake. Bet: 1 point on over 2.5 goals at 2.25 (betvictor/pinnaclesports)
Any other week of the year I would agree with you...goals is a largely random market, and best-priced overs are typically a good play no matter who's playing. But goals are typically lacking in opening weeks...4-8 O/U in week one in each of the past two seasons in League One, for example.
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Re: League 1 - 2nd - 3rd August I'm on the draw tonight, as you might expect, @3.53 (5dimes). It's draws in League One for the first couple of weeks at this price range...statistically speaking, the league over the past five years has thrown up a lot of straight upset wins by underdogs, but only starting in about the third week, when people think they have some information to go on. But the first couple of weeks, the lack of scoring and the tendency of teams/managers to just be feeling out the opposition and learning their own XI...well, it tends to throw up a lot of draws.

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Crawley @ 2.28 - Betfair V Coventry. This I feel is probably the best bet of the card. Not a lot to add, Coventry's troubles have been well documented and I still feel there is some value in Crawley. Coventry will probably be on minus 15 points soon, there isn't a lot of money behind the club and they look to be heading into dangerous waters, with a lot more uncertainty at the club. They've moved several players on, while not replacing them. I know from seeing Pompey last season it can be tough on players, and it can galvanise the squad but I think Crawley are in better shape right now, and Coventry are in a worse state than we were, as they effectively have no home games this season.

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Re: League 1 - 2nd - 3rd August

Sheff Utd v Notts County Bet; Buy Total Booking Points @ 44 (Sporting Index) Alternative: Back Over 55 Booking Points @ 9/4 (SkyBet) - I make it 6/4 OR Back Over 46 Booking Points @ 6/4 (Stan James) - I make it 5/6 OR Back Over 30 Booking Points @ 4/7 (Ladbrokes) I make it 4/9 Reasoning; Statistically, based on the methods outlined by Kevin Pullein, I make the line 53, so a mid-point of 42 is 11 points lower than I predict. Last season, Sheff Utd's home games averaged just over 40 points per game, whilst Notts County averaged 45 points per game away from home - the league average over the last 5 seasons is 33 points per game, so as you can see, both of these teams respective home and away fixtures are well above the league average. Referee Keith Stroud averages 39 points per game. These sides have met twice at Bramall Lane in the league in the last few years, the first in 2010/11 produced 85 points whilst last season produced 70 points.
great shout well done..
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Re: League 1 - 2nd - 3rd August

Sheff U v Notts Co As a result of Danny Wilson’s negative strategy, Sheffield United were correctly labelled as an unders team last year, with only 30% of their games going over 2.5 goals. The lack of goalscoring ultimately cost the Blades promotion, and Wilson his job. Looking at the summer signinings, his replacement David Weir appears to have done little to suggest we can assume that United will move away from their unders bias. Notts County also have a goalscoring problem to solve, and have brought in Danny Haynes to address this. All of the above suggests a low scoring game, which of course the odds reflect with under 2.5 goals a very short best price of 1.73. That’s a very short price in what I believe is a more random market than most punters believe, especially as this is opening day and defences could be rusty. I’d price up unders at 1.8 and overs at 2.15. Therefore Im going to play the percentages and back the overs 2.5 with minimum stake. Bet: 1 point on over 2.5 goals at 2.25 (betvictor/pinnaclesports)
Glad that worked out for you...nice call!
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Re: League 1 - 2nd - 3rd August

Peterborough v Swindon Peterborough have to be worth a play at over evens against Swindon, guess they are that price because they haven't yet replaced Gayle who went to Palace for £4.5m, they are still trying hard to get someone in though and it will probably be for big money. They had a club record bid (probably 1.3-1.5m) rejected for Nakki Wells who did very well at Bradford last season and according to the chairman they are still trying to bring someone in for the first game. They have Tommy Rowe and Lee Tomlin, who could play at a higher level and got their main transfer target of the summer in nicking Jack Payne from us for 750k which could prove to be a steal..in short they are one of the favourites to go up for a reason, their budget won't be massively different to what it was in the Championship and will be beyond most in the league, bar probably Wolves. Swindon are skint and still without a manager, James Collins left for Hibs last week for 150k who was their leading scorer last season, Simon Ferry another key player has gone to Portsmouth along with Joe Devera, Flint's gone to Bristol City, De Vita's been released, Gary Roberts has gone to Chesterfield, Alan McCormack has gone to Brentford - these are all players who played 30+ games for Swindon last year so it is a majority of their first team line-up. From what I can see they have replaced them with a load of loan players from Spurs, 7 of the blighters! Ryan Harley has also come in from Brighton and should be fine at this level. Their budget has been slashed and with so many players leaving it will surely take a bit of time for the new guys to gel. Peterborough will finish in the top 3 this season I'm sure of it and they should be winning games like this. Peterborough - 2.05 - hills - 2 Points WIN
Posh won 1-0, sounds like Swindon played pretty well though and can count themselves unfortunate to lose.
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Crawley @ 2.28 - Betfair V Coventry. This I feel is probably the best bet of the card. Not a lot to add, Coventry's troubles have been well documented and I still feel there is some value in Crawley. Coventry will probably be on minus 15 points soon, there isn't a lot of money behind the club and they look to be heading into dangerous waters, with a lot more uncertainty at the club. They've moved several players on, while not replacing them. I know from seeing Pompey last season it can be tough on players, and it can galvanise the squad but I think Crawley are in better shape right now, and Coventry are in a worse state than we were, as they effectively have no home games this season.
Bit of a Topsy turvy game but happy Crawley came out on top after throwing away a two goal lead. Lots of chances for both sides.
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