League One question

[allthethings]

One of my burning questions during the off-season is why League One doesn't follow the other leagues when it comes to favorites away. I have now a five-year database, painstakingly compiled often in concert with losing punts, of all games in the UK involving favorites of 1.99 or under. The underdogs in those games range from 3.4 to usually 8.0 in Championship, Leagues One and Two, maybe 10.0 in Conference and 23.0 in the Premier...and the home dogs do pretty well in every league except League One. Here's the %s of home dogs that have managed draws: EPL: 30% ECL: 30% One: 25% Two: 32% BSP: 29% Doesn't seem like a huge difference, but it is marked, and it has been pretty consistent from season to season. The data includes 612 games over five years. The only explanation that would seem logical to me (aside from it just being a random discrepancy) would be that League One has had especially dominant teams the past five years that do unusually well on away. But it sure doesn't seem like it.

[wibs]

Re: League One question there certainly wasnt a dominant league 1 team last season, in fact at one point I thought no-one was going to get promoted!

[Jase82]

Re: League One question I can't think of a logical reason for this either. Maybe because usually the strong favourites over the years in League One have been miles ahead of their opposition, in terms of strength, form, fitness and overall rythm? There are some really low level sides in League One that yo-yo between the two divisions.

[allthethings]

Re: League One question By the way, the other big difference is that League One upsets (away dogs) tend strongly toward the draw over the past five years (true also in Conference), whereas in Championship and League Two, the dogs away tend toward the outright win. League Two had a slew of teams outside of the playoffs (Oxford, Exeter, Southend) who won more often away than the top teams.

[Evertonboy]

Re: League One question It does seem a little quirk given that the % of home wins over the last 10 years has been the same as the Championship and not a illion miles different to the Premier League and League Two... [TABLE=width: 64]

[TR] [TD=class: xl66, width: 64]EPL 46.63[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66]C 44.1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66]L1 44.1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66]L2 42.7[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[allthethings]

Re: League One question

It does seem a little quirk given that the % of home wins over the last 10 years has been the same as the Championship and not a illion miles different to the Premier League and League Two... [TABLE=width: 64] [TR] [TD=class: xl66, width: 64]EPL 46.63[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66]C 44.1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66]L1 44.1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66]L2 42.7[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

True enough. The Premier data changes quite a bit, by the way, when you throw out dogs of better than 6.0. Dogs of 5.99 and under (to favorites of under 2.00) win or draw 50% of those games, as opposed to 30% for dogs of better than 6.0. There's a lot of value in backing draws against those home favorites in Premier.

[League1_punter]

Re: League One question My reasoning for this is that there is a core of around 12-13 teams in league one which are of poor quality (my team Oldham included) and they seem to be dormant. They never threaten the top of the table but always seem to find 4 teams worse off than them. As a result, when these teams play each other, you're not going to get evens or less on an away win. This means that the only time you get evens or less on an away team is when one of the decent teams with a bit of money or has recently been relegated, comes to play one of these teams and the gulf in class is clear. I fully expect a similar thing this season. The likes of Wolves, Peterborough and Bristol City will be right up there and I don't think they will have any problems picking up quite a fair amount of away wins at low prices