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Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June


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3.45 Ascot Dawn Approach 6/4 Paddy Power BOG On paper, really only 3 horses to consider (although I think Mars may one day fullfill his uncapped potential). Toranado flopped in the Guineas and I'm afraid I can't have him against the jolly. Magician is respected as he is still improving. Got the run of the races in an inferior Irish Guineas but was very impressive all the same. However, the one to beat is Dawn Approach who would be odds on had he not run in the Derby. Bolger made a huge mistake by not running a pacemaker and the pace was slow causing him to pull and with stamina exausted his race was run after 3 furlongs. Last year, he looked the real deal and in the Guineas itself he confirmed his superiority. In this race he will have the pace he needs set by Leitir Mor, a group 3 winner lto. When he fades with a furlong and a half to go, Dawn Approach will again quicken away to prove he is the best 3 year old miler around. With maximum confidence 10 points win Dawn Approach 6/4 Paddy Power BOG 2.30 Ascot Animal Kingdom Evs Paddy Power BOG I do not like a level playing field for betting purposes which is why this one isn't my BBOTD. However he has won several Grade ones and seems to have a great finishing kick. In addition he has been housed in the UK for quite some time now and should have acclimatised well at this stage. I cannot ignore the talk on this occasion either. I have looked at the opposition and in my opinion there is no one other Group one horse in the race. For example, the O' Brien horse is Group 3 at best on what he has shown. Therefore barring accidents or jockey error this should win and win well With maximum confidence Animal Kingdom 10 Points win Evs Paddy Power BOG

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June

15:05 Ascot
I think this a great opportunity for
Reckless Abandon
to get back into winning ways having finished 3rd on his seasonal reappearance at Haydock in a group 2 race 24 days ago. Although he won first time out as a 2 year old last season, it did appear that he was in need of the run at Haydock despite only going down by half a length, losing 2nd place in the dying strides. He was beaten by 2 horses who do reoppose here today but with that run under his belt he should be back to full race fitness and the fact he has already won over today's course and distance previously, I feel that will be enough to turn that form back around, especially considering he is much less exposed than
Kingsgate Native
and
Swiss Spirit
. Considering this was his first effort against his elders, that was a cracking effort, and even more so since he was on the far side with the 1st and 2nd running near side. The form of that race has been boosted since, with two of the horses who ran on the far side with
Reckless Abandon
winning in group and listed company since. My selection won all five races last year as a 2 year old, including two group 2 races and two group 1 races. Two of which in the UK and two outwith the UK.
2pt win Reckless Abandon @ 5/1 (
Stan James
- BOG)

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June

16:25 Ascot
Such a tricky race to call with many in the race not having much form to go on and the fact 13 of the 16 runners that line up have already won a race, this makes out to be an exciting contest. The one I am siding with is Mick Channon's
Riverboat Springs
who was probably noted in a lot of people's notebook's by the way he ran on last time out. Back to that race in a minute but firstly he ran out a decent winner on his debut at Bath in May on his debut, running out a 2 and a quarter length winner. Although this was not the strongest of maiden races, the second placed horse has won since which does give the form a bit of substance. Back to the race last time out,
Riverboat Springs
was stepped up into a listed race at Epsom which we all know is a track that a lot of horses don't tend to handle and this was the case for my selection. He was at the back of the field for most of the race after getting outpaced early on and was hanging pretty badly during the race. Despite that he moved from 11th place into 2nd after a very strong run inside the final furlong and although he wasn't ever going to trouble the winner, that was a rather encouraging finish to the race. He should be a big danger here at a track that is more likely to suit despite being stepped up into a group 2 race. William Buick was on board last time out and is a very interesting booking once again.
1pt E/W Riverboat Springs @ 10/1 (Paddy Power - BOG, 1/4 odds, 1,2,3)

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June Ascot 2.30 A fascinating race with the well regarded favourite Animal Kingdom clearly having the strongest form. However, he's drawn widest of all on the stands side so may not get any cover and this wide galloping and straight uphill track is very different from what he's faced previously. Don't get me wrong, he could very well win easily but at Evens (or odds on 8-11 when I went against him earlier today) he has to be opposed. Elusive Kate is the obvious one on the figures but I think it's going to be very difficult for her to bring her A game against the boys first time out. Of the remainder I like the look of Trade Storm who started to improve rapidly towards the end of last season and showed good quickening pace when taking his two races at Meydan earlier in the year. He also performed with credit when a strong finishing 4th in a Group 1 on his final start despite being poorly drawn. Given he's drawn next door to the favourite, Jamie Spencer should be able track that one into the race. I've backed him each way at 16's earlier today but he's 12's now due to the price wise following. That's still a good price though and I'm hopeful he can end my 33 run losing sequence tomorrow.

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June Fingers are just starting to return to normal after the 2000G's and the savlon worked well, so lets have one more try, what's the worst that can happen ? We never got to see the real deal at HQ and he was reported to have coughed or some sort of wind problem, hopefully he can give Dawn Approach more of a test today in this race and it would be nice to see the real deal that Mr Hannon and Richard Hughes have been promoting. It reads like they have found a solution for his breathing and if it works he must have a great chance at this top level. Fully agree DA is still the horse to beat, but the price is not for me. 3:45 Ascot - Toronado. Savlon and ice at the ready.

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June 14.30 Ascot: Trade Storm, 12/1 >Bet365, e/w Trade Storm finished fourth in the Dubai Duty Free lto at Meydan. He ran quite well that day in his first start in group 1 company. He won a group 2 in impressive fashion before that over today's distance. He was held up behind and started to make good progress about 2f out through a bit of traffic. He got to the lead inside the final furlong and showed a great turn of foot to put the race to bed in a couple of strides, winning in the end by 1½L from Musir without his jockey having to get too animated in the saddle. He has some decent form over c&d. Today's ground will suit and this is his best trip. The favourite, Animal Kingdom, will be hard to beat but his best form is over further and this is the first time he has raced over a straight mile. Trainer David Simcock is in good form. Jamie Spencer has ridden this horse five times, winning three of those races, and his style is perfect for this horse. 15.05 Ascot: Reckless Abandon, 5/1 >boylesports, win Reckless Abandon ran a cracker lto to finish second in the group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock. The field split into two and he settled behind the leader of his group. He went to the front of his group about 2f out and ran on well to finish about 2L ahead of Spirit Quartz. He finished about ½L behind Kingsgate Native and a head behind Swiss Spirit, both of them came from the other group. That was his first run of the season and he should come on for that run. The ground that day was firm which was possibly a bit too quick for him and today's ground will be ideal. Trainer Clive Cox is in decent form and Adam Kirby is in the saddle. 15.45 Ascot: Magician, 5/2 >Bet365, win Magician was a very impressive winner of the Irish 2000 Guineas lto at the Curragh. He was settled behind the leaders until 2f out when he was asked to go on and he got to the lead over 1f out. He finished strongly to win by 3½L. Trading Leather, who was 5L back in third, easily won a listed race nto. There should be some more improvement to come and he will go very close today. His main rivals, Dawn Approach and Toronado, both have questions to answer after their last runs but even if they both return to form I think Magician could still be too strong. Today's ground and trip are perfect for him. Trainer Aidan O'Brien is in good form and his son Joseph, who was on board in the Guineas, is in the saddle again today. 16.25 Ascot: Riverboat Springs, 10/1 >Betvictor, win Posted this before his last run;

14.05 Epsom: Riverboat Springs, 11/2 Paddy Power, win Riverboat Springs won his only race to date impressively. He broke slowly from the stalls but quickly latched onto the back of the pack. He started to make progress through the small field about 2f out and he got to the lead in the last furlong and finished very strongly to win by 2¼L from the re-opposing Money Team, who won easily nto. RS should come on a lot for that experience and I would expect him to confirm running with MT. The slight step up in trip will suit as will the ground. Thunder Strike is the obvious danger but he hasn't beaten much in his two races. Trainer Mick Channon won this race last year and William Buick is a very positive booking.
He didn't handle Epsom's undulations at all but once he finally got his balance, he finished in eye-catching fashion, coming from a distant second last 2f out to finish second, 3½L behind the re-opposing Thunder Strike. It was a very encouraging run and, as it was only his second race, there will be improvement to come. Today's course, ground and trip will suit. Trainer Mick Channon is having a decent year with his 2yo. William Buick keeps the ride having been on board lto, which is a massive plus. 17.00 Ascot: Lieutenant Miller, 12/1 >boylesports, e/w Lieutenant Miller won nicely lto over 2m at Doncaster. He was settled in mid division most of the way round. His jockey asked him to go about 2f out and he responded well. He showed a decent turn of foot and got to the lead inside the final furlong. He finished strongly to win by 1¼L. He has run on the flat four times, winning twice and placing twice. Stamina won't be an issue as he has won over today's distance before and was narrowly beaten in a three mile handicap off top weight at Fakenham, both over hurdles. The ground will suit. Jumps trainers have won this eight times in the last ten runnings, including LM's trainer Nicky Henderson winning it in 2011 with Veiled. Henderson has his jumpers in fine form and I would expect him to have LM in top condition for this. Graham Lee, who was on board lto, is a big plus in the saddle. 17.35 Ascot: Haikbidiac, 20/1 >boylesports, e/w (1/4, 1234) Haikbidiac ran very well lto in the listed Woodcote Stakes at Epsom. He didn't seem totally comfortable coming down the hill so today's flatter track will be a lot more suitable. He didn't really see out the 6f either so the drop back to the minimum trip will suit. Today's ground is ideal. Trainer William Haggas is in good form and his 2yos are having a cracking season. Kieren Fallon is a very good jockey booking.
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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June Ascot 2.30pm http://www.punterslounge.com/ascot-betting-animal-kingdom-can-get-favourite-backers-off-to-a-winning-start-20130618 Animal Kingdom is a consistent group 1 performer that has only been out of the first three on one occasion. He loves fast ground, whether that is on turf or dirt and he is rated 126, which puts him 10lb clear on ratings. Past winners were rated similarly with Frankel a standout 138 but Canford Cliffs was on 127, Goldikova on 130 and Paco Boy on 124. I usually prefer to oppose favourites but the race lacks depth and it is hard to see him being beaten today. Selections: 3pts WIN – Animal Kingdom Evens Bet365 0.5pt WIN – Elusive Kate 7-1 Bet365 (now 11-10 bet365)

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June 5.00 Ascot Lieutenant Miller may be the value bet in Ascot Stakes given his profile. He made into a respectable hurdler, only raced 4 times on the flat and remains unexposed and improving. He ran a very good effort on seasonal debut at Newbury when only beaten a short head, the winner did let that form down slightly but others behind have boosted it and Miller himself boosted the form when winning rather comfortably at Doncaster last time out. 7lb higher today should be ok and the step up in trip should also suit as he wasn’t stopping last time out. Decent ground no problem and be no surprise to see him run a big race at a big price. 1pt e/w Lieutenant Miller 12/1 bet365 6.00 Brighton Even Bolder wouldn’t be an obvious horse to follow up his surprise win last time out given the way that race turned out that day, wouldn’t be guaranteed a strong gallop in this small field so probably worth opposing. Johnny Splash is a capable but quirky sort and for that reason is easy to oppose. Burnt Cream hasn’t been seen since winning at Kempton and he was previously hold his form respectably on the AW. Does need to prove effectiveness on the AW and this race a lot stronger than a class 7 handicap on the polytrack, record fresh also not great. Imaginary Diva might be the one to be with, looked desperately unlucky last time out closing well on the winner and backing up his effort on penultimate start so clearly in good heart at present. She remains just 1lb higher than last CD win and is a 2 time CD winner so clearly handles this quirky track. 2pt win Imaginary Diva 5/2 bet365 6.40 Kempton This doesn’t look particularly strong for the time of year. Victorian Number has won his last 2 starts but not guaranteed a soft time of things upfront today and a further 4lb rise for a very narrow victory might be enough to stop him although is well treated on his very best form but is also drawn wide not ideal. Strategic Action isn’t the most consistent but a good effort last time out but not well drawn here and not easy to predict. Wyndham Wave may be the one to take in this race, he is a quirky sort and not straightforward but showed improved form on this surface last autumn. Looked in need of the run last time out but returned to this surface and cheekpieces refitted he should go well if they go hard enough up front. Well drawn in stall 4 and yard had a winner again yesterday and continues in good form this season. He is only 2lb higher for his very good win over CD. 1pt e/w Wyndham Wave 17/2 VC

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June Ascot 3.05pm http://www.punterslounge.com/ascot-betting-reckless-abandon-can-deny-shea-shea-in-kings-stand-stakes-20130618 Reckless Abandon is a sprinter I want to keep on the right side of. He managed a fine effort under a penalty at Haydock and that was his first run of the season. He looks to have trained on and he had some excellent 2 year old form at the highest level, winning 5 races in a row last year, 2 of them in group 1 races. He gets 3lb from older horses and that would put him level with Shea Shea as he is rated 117 and that rival is rated 120. He is drawn in stall 13 and is around 5-1 in the betting. Selections: 1pt WIN – Reckless Abandon 5-1 Stan James 1pt WIN – Swiss Spirit 9-1 Stan James

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June Ascot 3.45pm http://www.punterslounge.com/ascot-betting-dawn-approach-aims-to-restore-reputation-but-dundonnell-each-way-the-selection-20130618 Dundonnell looks to be the each way play for me in this race but he has to prove he gets 1m in a top class race like this. He looked a potentially smart sort when winning at York last August and he was only just beaten by Toronado at Doncaster. He was 4th to George Vancouver at the Breeders Cup and then finished 3rd of 4 to Toronado on his return in April, beaten 4 ¼ lengths that day. He dropped back to 7f last time out and won well but that was listed class. He looked to need the run when well beaten by Toronado and the trainer suggested the same. I believe he will get 1m and should appreciate faster ground and at 16-1 I’d take him each way. Selection: 1.5pts EW – Dundonnell 16-1 Bet365 (1/4 odds first 3)

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June Ascot 4.25pm http://www.punterslounge.com/ascot-betting-stubbs-could-be-a-future-star-and-can-deny-championship-in-coventry-stakes-20130618 Stubbs was 3rd on debut but Joseph O’Brien takes responsibility for that defeat, saying he gave the horse a crack on the shoulder but he ran too freely and was tired by the end of the race. He came on plenty to win impressively over 5f at Navan , showing a smart turn of foot that day. He then won over 6f at Naas and again looked quite comfortable. I think this horse could be potentially a real star and love the way he smoothly travels into contention at the end of a race. Selections: 2pts WIN – Stubbs 7-2 Stan James 0.5pt EW – Mawfoor 14-1 BetVictor

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June 6.10 Kempton Slip Of The Tongue 11/8 Paddy Power BOG Anoth Prescott horse thrown into a lowerly rated handicap off the back of 3 runs as a 2 year old over much shorter trips. This race lacks strength in depth and he is the only one with real scope. The stable is flying but admitedly most of his horses have come on for the first run. His jockey is very able indeed and always rides a few winners for the stable with an impressive strike rate. 10 points win Slip Of The Tongue 11/8 Paddy Power BOG 9.10 Kempton North Pole 7/2 William Hill Again from the Prescott stable which is firing on all cyllinders - this one had placed form as a 2 year old but like so many of the stable's horses always look likely to do better at 3. Luke Morris travels up from Brighton especially to ride this one. 5 points win North Pole 7/2 William Hill 6.30 Brighton Bewitchment 11/8 Generally BOG A strong finishing 2nd at Kempton over 6f last month. Should progress enough to win this given that the stable is in better form now. Its form to me looks stronger than Vigor and will probably need further in time. 10 points win Bewitchment 11/8 Paddy Power BOG Good Luck!

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June *Shea Shea > Ascot 3:05 > WIN @ 9/4 Bet365 BOG* If he repeats his run where he won a Group 1 at Meydan last time out, he will win this race, and probably a tad cosily too. Sole Power was back in 4th that day, and was easily put in his place. This horse has an incredible turn of foot, and lots of power. Ground tomorrow is perfect. This is De Kock's first runner at Royal Ascot since 2009, his last winner was Archipenko back in 2008, the yard think this horse is a certainty to win tomorrow aswell.

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June 18.50 Sligo: Celticnama @ 53/1 Betfair - 1pt win Huge odds available on the exchanges and I think they are not reflecting the true chance of Celticnama. This gelding is still lightly raced and while he didn't show much yet, his most recent run gives hope as he was quite unlucky and the performance way better than the bare result suggests. He was slowly into stride, which is never an advantage in a 6f race. He made up all the ground he lost at the start soon though and travelled well in pack from 4f out and looked in with a chance until he got baldy hampered inside the final two furlongs. He was eventually eased down. He steps up to 7f today again which should be alright and the booked apprentice rides well at Sligo and the trainer had in the last year only a couple of runners at this track but then he was extremely successful. So it's worth a shout I think.

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June 14.20 Thirsk Peniaphobia Not the most difficult of selections to pick out at a very short price (currently best priced 1/3), but this horse should have no problems in winning this race today. He won on debut at Pontefract in May over today's trip of 5F, he kept on well that day and won with plenty in hand. On his reappearance he stepped up to Class 3 company at York over the same distance and was only beaten a neck by Steventon Star who, despite being beaten into 4th of the 5 runners, was sent off favourite in Listed company following that race at York. Loma Mor has been consistent on her 3 starts on the all-weather and may chase the selection home, but will need to improve massively to win here today.

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June 2.30 Ascot - 1pt e/w Elusive Kate @ 15/2 (Sportingbet) It may be that the favourite for this proves too strong but at the prices I think John Gosden's filly has a massive chance of getting involved and I'd be disappointed if she doesn't make the frame - even if Animal Kingdom proves too good. Although she hasn't run yet this season she went well fresh last season (arguably on ground too soft as well) and conditions will suit her today. A stiffish mile on a sound surface looks ideal and she's usually consistent. Some of these challengers have to prove themselves at the top level but this filly is a Group 1 winner amongst her own sex and was only beaten 1 1/2l by Excelebration last season (beat Moonlight Cloud). Needs to resume at her best at 4 to play a part here but I see no reason why she can't and should give the favourite something to think about at least.

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June 3.05 Ascot - 1pt win Pearl Secret @ 12/1 (Bet365) Posted this before intended run at Haydock:

2.35 Newmarket - 2pts win Pearl Secret @ 11/2 (Bet365) Jamie Spencer opts to side with this one of the consistent Spirit Quartz which says a lot and I think he has a huge chance as he's unexposed and ran some fine races last season. He was only beaten once, which came on his final start in the Nunthorpe. He was not ideally positioned on the track and didn't have the clearest of passages and he should have learned from that experience in a hot race. Won easily, albeit in a weak maiden on his return last season and if ready to go should go close today.
Didn't run here in the end but presumably will be ready to go to be thrown straight in here. Spencer again sides with him ahead of the consistent and high-class Spirit Quartz and there does look more to come. Was right in amongst Bated Breath and Sole Power in the Nunthorpe when on the wrong side and with improvement likely with experience I think he can put up a bold show this afternoon.
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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June 4.25 Ascot - 3pts win Stubbs @ 100/30 (Sportingbet) Aidan O'Brien looks to have a strong hand in this and I'm really keen on the favourite for the contest (albeit a bit boring). He's quite short in a race like this but built on his debut promise to win well the last twice and has plenty of substance to the form. Was a 4 1/4l victor on his second start over 5f and his listed victory over 6f last time was decent and the way he stretched under pressure bodes well for this stiffer test. It really shouldn't be an issue whatsoever given his pedigree (bodes well for next year) as there's plenty of stamina in there so he should only improve given how strong he was at the finish at Naas. There he beat a Hannon horse who has form linked in with some of the better 2yos that the UK has had to offer this season so collateral form looks good and for top connections I think he'll take this.

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June 5.00 Ascot - 1pt win Suraj @ 28/1 (Bet365) and 2pts win Tiger Cliff @ 11/2 (VC) Michael Bell's runner disappointed a bit over hurdles as I thought he'd be a really useful juvenile but he does look a galloper and his return to the flat in the Chester Cup wasn't devoid of promise. He wasn't well positioned after a poor draw and could only make up some late progress from the rear. Last season he easily won a Doncaster maiden over 1m4f on ground that probably was on the soft side for him (just outclassed the field) and then ran adequately over further (including another win over the Leger trip at the Yorkshire track). To me he just looks a stayer and good ground seems ideal for him. His pedigree would give him a decent chance of staying and he looks a big price with Spencer aboard. Tiger Cliff won a competitive Newmarket handicap last time over 1m6f - staying on strongly - and looks like he'll have a really good chance of getting home over this marathon 2m4f trip. That was his first run of the season, too, so plausibly could come on for it and remains lightly-raced. Is 6lbs higher today but on only his sixth run and upped in trip which will suit him more than others, I think he has a big chance of coping with the hike in the weights. Wants decent ground so that suits too and represents Lady Cecil who has had a cracking spell on the track having taken over the license after the saddening death of Sir Henry. Don't see too many holes in his chance at all and I'd be surprised if he isn't bang on the premises.

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June Spread Betting available on how many times Aidan O'Brien can say "Listen" in an interview. Spread is between 8-12 times, come on now punters BUY or SELL. :p I thought we had moved on from the fashionistas on BBC 1 but sadly we have an even more annoying yank today. Can we get a sniper on the roof to take her out please? :ok Loving the puppies on the bird in the red dress though. :loon

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June

Spread Betting available on how many times Aidan O'Brien can say "Listen" in an interview. Spread is between 8-12 times, come on now punters BUY or SELL. :p I thought we had moved on from the fashionistas on BBC 1 but sadly we have an even more annoying yank today. Can we get a sniper on the roof to take her out please? :ok Loving the puppies on the bird in the red dress though. :loon
Gina is bloody hot! I don't care how many times O'Brien says listen though, because he is one of the nicest men in racing, and a real pro. Fair play to him.
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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June

Gina is bloody hot! I don't care how many times O'Brien says listen though, because he is one of the nicest men in racing, and a real pro. Fair play to him.
I like the geezer but his interviews are funny. I like the fact he uses pacemakers and takes away the problem of a slow pace despite others criticising him for being "mob handed". I'd love to chat with him for a few hours about how he trains his horses on the gallops. He might get the best horses but his training record is amazing. His son comes in for some unfair criticism but he is coolness personified, laid back and knows how to get a horse in front at the line.
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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June

I like the geezer but his interviews are funny. I like the fact he uses pacemakers and takes away the problem of a slow pace despite others criticising him for being "mob handed". I'd love to chat with him for a few hours about how he trains his horses on the gallops. He might get the best horses but his training record is amazing. His son comes in for some unfair criticism but he is coolness personified' date=' laid back and knows how to get a horse in front at the line.[/quote'] Joseph gets a lot of stick on here (from Erhaab).. Don't know why, I would like to see any other 19-20 year old that has the record Joseph has. Riding the best horses or not, a young lad riding in Group 1's, the pressure must be immense. He gave that horse today a great ride, it was Ryan Moore-esque the way he burst through that gap. He is very mature, humble, and sensible, and will make a great trainer himself one day
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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June

It's insane to think a horse can quicken so well having gone as quickly as they do over the first 3 and a half furlongs.
He's gone a tad slower though hasn't he and kept that energy in reserve? Great ride by Murtagh, took a keen hold of Sole Power and it was bang last at one point, started to make his move and had to change towards the inner and then another gap came just to his right for that final flourish. Excellent viewpoint when they were above the field watching him thread his passage. Spencer/Hughes would be jealous. :clap
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