Jase82 Posted May 19, 2013 Author Share Posted May 19, 2013 Re: Newcastle United V Arsenal > Sunday 19th May last 2 home game Sunderland 0-3' date=' Liverpool 0-6 plus they have absentees[/quote'] But what price were Sunderland and Liverpool compared to Arsenal? It's a hard one to call in terms of 1X2 today, but Arsenal often fall over when they're expected to win. Everyone will be on them because of "motivation" and "absentees" .... basically all the football cliches under the sun :lol I'd have Arsenal still at about 1.80'ish tbh, and current prices seem a little over reactionary to the fact Arsenal need a win to secure a CL place, and the other fact that Newcastle "have nothing to play for". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojojo Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Re: Newcastle United V Arsenal > Sunday 19th May I agree with Jase, the value on Arsenal is gone...they opened around 1.80 and now that price has collapsed. The need to win logic is flawed regardless of this game or any other, ...Im not saying Arsenal wont win and I actually wanted to back them but at the current price cannot, this looks like an inplay scenario to me. I don't rate Newcastle or Pardew as a coach that much anyway but when you consider Arsenal's price it is low, Man U were 1.80 to win here, Chelsea 2.0, Spurs 2.8, cant remember Man City price but it was higher than 1.55 ect... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krisko891 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Re: Newcastle United V Arsenal > Sunday 19th May Newcastle +1.5 @1.65 Obviously, Arsenal are going to play at their best today given the fact that although they were not constant in their form, they are still able to secure a champions league spot. However, if there is one team that is not playing well when under pressure in the last 4-5 seasons - this is Arsenal. That is why I am not going to back them even though it is understandable for those who do. However, I expect Newcastle to be playing without pressure and give their best too and having in mind their immense playing potential, they can definitely cause problems. Mike Ashley (Newcastle's chairman) is a popular Chelsea fan and is rumoured to have offered 1 million pounds bonus for his team if they beat Arsenal as this will secure Chelsea's 3rd place. Therefore, I think Newcastle will be very motivated and if they lose it won't be by more than 1 goal plus the fact that if Arsenal score, they probably won't take many risks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Re: Newcastle United V Arsenal > Sunday 19th May But what price were Sunderland and Liverpool compared to Arsenal? It's a hard one to call in terms of 1X2 today, but Arsenal often fall over when they're expected to win. Everyone will be on them because of "motivation" and "absentees" .... basically all the football cliches under the sun :lol I'd have Arsenal still at about 1.80'ish tbh, and current prices seem a little over reactionary to the fact Arsenal need a win to secure a CL place, and the other fact that Newcastle "have nothing to play for". I'll be on a lot of draws today...except for last year, the Premier shows a lot of strange results on the last day. The exception is home favorites that need to win...those finish 8-0 and 4-0. Away favorites on the last day have a very poor record over the years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TotoSchillaci Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Re: Newcastle United V Arsenal > Sunday 19th May But what price were Sunderland and Liverpool compared to Arsenal? It's a hard one to call in terms of 1X2 today, but Arsenal often fall over when they're expected to win. Everyone will be on them because of "motivation" and "absentees" .... basically all the football cliches under the sun :lol I'd have Arsenal still at about 1.80'ish tbh, and current prices seem a little over reactionary to the fact Arsenal need a win to secure a CL place, and the other fact that Newcastle "have nothing to play for". Maybe everyone is on them because Newcastle don't know how to fashion chances to score goals. Last week it took them a bogus penalty and a momumental f*%* up at the back by Bosingwa just to score the 2 goals needed to beat QPR! The worst rabble in the league. Arsenal have been very sound defensively of late to add weight to Newcastle's lack of goal threat. Prior to that they scored 1 goal in 4 EPL games! The prices take these things into consideration. People aren't stupid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Re: Newcastle United V Arsenal > Sunday 19th May People aren't stupid. I disagree. lol Every game in every league during the last month of the season, the public bets up the favorites who "need to win," as well as all the home teams who "want to put on a show for the fans." The prices are all inflated as a result. Look at the average week in the Premier this season. Ordinarily, you might have between five and seven games where the underdog is priced at 4.0 or better. This week, it's all 10 games! There are only three teams who "need to win," but look at the prices on all the away teams. It's unbelievable. Liverpool, who have drawn their last three at home and have absolutely nothing to play for, are priced as if they are Man Utd on steroids. Stoke, Reading and Aston Villa are live dogs, if you ask me. And Newcastle are an amazing value at 6.3 at home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Re: Newcastle United V Arsenal > Sunday 19th May FYI overs (even over 3.5) on the last day are good shouts for any games involving dogs of better than 11.0. There are three this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TotoSchillaci Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Re: Newcastle United V Arsenal > Sunday 19th May Arteta in line-up plus Poldolski up front with Giroud on bench. Best possible scenario imo. Fullbacks Yanga-Mbiwa and M. Debuchy are weak points of Newcastle and match-up against Walcott and Carzola out wide. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted May 19, 2013 Author Share Posted May 19, 2013 Re: Newcastle United V Arsenal > Sunday 19th May Maybe everyone is on them because Newcastle don't know how to fashion chances to score goals. Last week it took them a bogus penalty and a momumental f*%* up at the back by Bosingwa just to score the 2 goals needed to beat QPR! The worst rabble in the league. Arsenal have been very sound defensively of late to add weight to Newcastle's lack of goal threat. Prior to that they scored 1 goal in 4 EPL games! The prices take these things into consideration. People aren't stupid. People are stupid though, aren't they? :D We see it in the general elections, we see it all the time.... Especioaly when you get the herd mentality which artificially pushes a price up or down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TotoSchillaci Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Re: Newcastle United V Arsenal > Sunday 19th May I disagree. lol Every game in every league during the last month of the season, the public bets up the favorites who "need to win," as well as all the home teams who "want to put on a show for the fans." The prices are all inflated as a result. Look at the average week in the Premier this season. Ordinarily, you might have between five and seven games where the underdog is priced at 4.0 or better. This week, it's all 10 games! There are only three teams who "need to win," but look at the prices on all the away teams. It's unbelievable. Liverpool, who have drawn their last three at home and have absolutely nothing to play for, are priced as if they are Man Utd on steroids. Stoke, Reading and Aston Villa are live dogs, if you ask me. And Newcastle are an amazing value at 6.3 at home. But instead of thinking of the public bet etc etc why don't you just look at the 2 teams. Arsenal have much more quality and depth in the ranks which is always no.1 factor. Form wise they are the best in England atm aswell. The general play of Newcastle is uninspiring most of the time too. Liverpool FYI are playing their send off game for Carragher and there are all sorts of motivation to win for him. They've hyped this day up alot and the Liverpool boys want to fill their boots (namely Sturrridge) vs a shocking QPR who are dying for the nightmare to end. So don't over analyse prices. Don't even look at them until you've analysed the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TotoSchillaci Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Re: Newcastle United V Arsenal > Sunday 19th May People are stupid though, aren't they? :D We see it in the general elections, we see it all the time.... Especioaly when you get the herd mentality which artificially pushes a price up or down. I understand exactly what you're saying mate. My point is the herd mentality pushing around prices has exactly zero effect on what eventuates on a football pitch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Re: Newcastle United V Arsenal > Sunday 19th May I disagree utterly...I always look at prices first. That tells you what the public thinks. Then I look at the teams and decide whether the prices are accurate to the moment. There is no doubt that Arse are the better team and the form team. It is also the last day of the season, and the home team will not lay down for them. In fact, they are likely to play inspired because it's no fun as an athlete to have a team come and celebrate on your pitch. I expect Arsenal to win this game more than half the time, but not four out of five of this matchup on this day. That's the essence of value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted May 19, 2013 Author Share Posted May 19, 2013 Re: Newcastle United V Arsenal > Sunday 19th May Liverpool FYI are playing their send off game for Carragher and there are all sorts of motivation to win for him. They've hyped this day up alot and the Liverpool boys want to fill their boots (namely Sturrridge) vs a shocking QPR who are dying for the nightmare to end. How do you know the Liverpool boys will want to "fill their boots" :unsure That's very similar to the notion that one side "will want to win". It's so generic and vague a statement that doesn't really sum up the motivations of a modern day footballing side. IMO of course. How do you know the majority of Liverpool players won't have their thoughts on the summer hols. Why would Daniel Sturridge be out to score a hatful against such a poor Premier League side, and what baring does Sturridge scoring one two or three goals have on anything. It won't win him any medals, it won't push them up the table, it won't win him a new contract. He might get an extra few grand to add to his already burgeoning bag of cash. Don't forget as well that United needed an 87th minute winner against Swansea courtesy of Rio Ferdinand only last weekend, when that was also a similar occasion. Completely off topic for this thread of course :spank Sorry :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake_up_bomb Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Re: Newcastle United V Arsenal > Sunday 19th May Arsenal are not strong defensively? They have conceded two goals in their past five games (one against Man United) and have conceded the second least amount of goals in the entire league behind Man City.Arsenal actually have comfortably the best defensive record away from home in the Premier League and the second best overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flyingdutchman Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Re: Newcastle United V Arsenal > Sunday 19th May first half zero shots on goal by Arsenal... Newcastle are playing well.. DAMN IT! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TotoSchillaci Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Re: Newcastle United V Arsenal > Sunday 19th May Referring to Sturridge I mean that since the big 2 are out for Pool, he and Coutinho will want to make a case that it's not just the Gerrard and Suarez show. That's been his motivation for years. Playing second fiddle at City and Chelsea. Last week he scored a hatrick as if to say "I'm the main man!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TotoSchillaci Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Re: Newcastle United V Arsenal > Sunday 19th May I disagree utterly...I always look at prices first. That tells you what the public thinks. Then I look at the teams and decide whether the prices are accurate to the moment. No because if you bet this way the price always "contaminates" your thinking. Regardless of how much you put it to one side/in context or separate the two, it's always in the back of your mind and ultimately (even subconsciously) influences your thinking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted May 19, 2013 Author Share Posted May 19, 2013 Re: Newcastle United V Arsenal > Sunday 19th May No because if you bet this way the price always "contaminates" your thinking. Regardless of how much you put it to one side/in context or separate the two' date=' it's always in the back of your mind and ultimately (even subconsciously) influences your thinking.[/quote'] Everyone's different. I disagree. At the end of the day the bookie offers you a price currently (lead by whichever market forces driving it). Whether you look at it first or last, that price will still exist. So I tend to look first and then say whether it's too short or long as I will have an expectation in my head of what the true odds should be. But maybe that's because I've been gambling since I was 18 :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Re: Newcastle United V Arsenal > Sunday 19th May No because if you bet this way the price always "contaminates" your thinking. Regardless of how much you put it to one side/in context or separate the two' date=' it's always in the back of your mind and ultimately (even subconsciously) influences your thinking.[/quote'] Of course price influences your thinking. Any sane gambler takes price into consideration when punting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Re: Newcastle United V Arsenal > Sunday 19th May I'll be on a lot of draws today...except for last year' date=' the Premier shows a lot of strange results on the last day. The exception is home favorites that need to win...those finish 8-0 and 4-0. Away favorites on the last day have a very poor record over the years.[/quote'] Won half a unit after selecting the draw at Southampton and West Brom (unbelievably), but was undone by taking Aston Villa to win (instead of draw) and Fulham to draw (instead of win). This sums up my season...I think maybe next year I'll choose randomly, as I seem to have chosen ass-backward all season long. Norwich's win was only the second in Premier all season long by an underdog of better than 8.0. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TotoSchillaci Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Re: Newcastle United V Arsenal > Sunday 19th May Well all the teams "needing" to win won. What a strange coincidence ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Re: Newcastle United V Arsenal > Sunday 19th May Well all the teams "needing" to win won. What a strange coincidence ;) Funny. Though none of them were cakewalks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.