Racing Post chase - Saturday

[bowles10]

I really hope this snow thaws in time for Kempton tomorrow. Could nt believe it this morning when i woke up as it's always on a good racing day! I have been doing a bit of work on the race & i can advise the following so far: 8 out of last 10 races have been won by a horse with an official rating of 145 or higher. The 2 exceptions being Gunther Mcbride 120 & Mudahim 132. That means only Farmer Jack 152 qualifies. 8yo have won 4 out of last 10, with other ages being 6, 7, 10 (2), 11 & 12. There's a fair spread there. No 9yo though so maybe rule out Farmer Jack?, Iznogoud, Inca trail, Zaffamore & Run for paddy. Due to the spread of ages, i would be inclined to ignore this. 19 horses with a rating above 150 have taken part over last 10 years & 4 have won from 19 runners. Framer Jack is the only qualifier here. the following have won over 3 miles, AstonVille, Colonel Frank, Farmer Jack, Gunther McBride, Horus, Inca Trail, Mondial Jack, Run for Paddy, tribal venture, Zaffamore & Banker Count. I would discount all the others who have only won up to 2 & 1/2 miles. the following (out of the above) have winning form on G/S or softer, Astonville, Colonel Frank, Farmer Jack, Gunther Mcbride, Horus, Inca Trail, Mondial jack, Run for paddy, Zaffamore. If you look further, those with wins over soft & worse are: Astonville, C Frank, F Jack, Horus, Inca Trail, Mondial Jack, Gunther Mcbride, Banker count. Farmer Jack, Mondial Jack, Gunther Mcbride have course wins to their name notably Gunther Mcbride who has 4 course wins including winning this race & 2nd twice in this race. 9 out of last 10 have been 9-1 or shorter ! That may be down to the quality in the race & the amount of runners? sorry just realised that Banker Count had not been added to the above lists. Sorry again:eyes

[bowles10]

Re: Racing Post chase - Saturday still hoping the race will be on. The snow has melted & rain is forecast for later. Think the 3m will be testing tomorrow although Kempton is a flat course. think the winner will come from: Astonville 100-1 Colonel Frank 5-1 Farmer Jack 5-1 Horus 25-1 Inca Trail 20-1 Mondial Jack 50-1 Gunther Mcbride 9-1 some juicy prices there to consider. I think i will be backing 3 on the day if the fiedl stays the same size with places down to 4th currently.

[bowles10]

Re: Racing Post chase - Saturday Ok guys, i have backed HORUS at 25/1. The horse ran in this last year & unseated at the 2nd last when taking the lead. Previously its form had been much the same as this season. The horse has established form at 3m & goes on any ground. In Nov at Haydock, it beat Chives & Keen Leader albeit it was getting weight frrom both but it was a good performance. Ignore it's last 2 runs when it blundered badly in both races. Previous to that, it gave weight to Chives in the tommy whittle chase & i would not have expected it to be anywhere near the likes of Sir Rembrandt at level weights. I will also be looking at Colonel frank & Farmer Jack who are the class acts in this race.

[Tulenos]

Re: Racing Post chase - Saturday There seems to be a gamble on Palarshan (8/1 now).

[Aykay1]

Re: Racing Post chase - Saturday It may be worth noting that Novices have a aprticularly good record in this race. 8 Novices have had a bash in the last 10 years and 3 have won the race - a decent strike rate of 38%. The RFO points out that of the 5 defeated novice runners, 3 were running behind La Landiere (a novice who won the race). This brings the interesting stat that novices have taken the prize on 3 of the 4 occassions when there were Novice runners. Partly for this reason im going to have a punt on TRIBAL VENTURE. The going has come good for him, the trip isnt a problem and he has previously won on the track. For a horse that is rarely out of the frame, ill take some of the widely available 9/1 as an each way punt. Good luck all :ok

[Aykay1]

Re: Racing Post chase - Saturday Bowles, not sure if your money is already down on Horus but ive just picked something off the EBA board which put me off a bit..... The post was basically saying that we are really looking for a horse in form. Only two of the last ten winners of the race failed to finish in the top two last time out, those two being Rough Quest, who would have gone very close in the Pierse Chase at Leopardstown had he not fallen four out, and last year’s winner Marlborough who had finished a creditable fifth in the King George. Good luck though and at least his running in the race last year gives cause for encouragement :ok

[Aykay1]

Re: Racing Post chase - Saturday Gunther McBride looks a decent each way bet as well - he's finished 122 in his 3 runs in this race and is 4 wins from 6 at Kempton. The 2 defeats obviously being when he filled the runners up spot in this race for the last 2 years. He won last time out aswell which is a positive

[bowles10]

Re: Racing Post chase - Saturday i am going against the trend with Horus. I believe Farmer Jack & Colonel Frank are difficult to split in the race. I have looked back over 2-3 years at Horus runs & i am convinced he will run a big race today. there are so many question marks over the ground that a few horses will not stay the trip. Horus is certain to as long as it doesnt make the mistakes it has been. Gerald Delamere in the RP seems to agree with me as well which was nice to see this morning.

[Osesame]

Re: Racing Post chase - Saturday Be My Better Half is one that should stay the trip,certainly worth an e.w. bet imo. good luck to all info betfair money traded % of total Colonel Frank 15% Farmer Jack 13% Tribal venture 28%

[bowles10]

Re: Racing Post chase - Saturday

1st		Farmer Jack	9	R Johnson	5-1
			11 12	P Hobbs
		Always prominent, went 2nd 4 out, led 3 out, in command well before last, stayed on gamely Opened 5/1, touched 6/1 £3000-£480(x2), £3000-£500, £5000-£900(x2), £5000-£1000(x2), £3000-£600, £2500-£500(x5), £2000-£400
2nd	6l	Iznogoud (FR)	9	T Scudamore	20-1
			10 12	M Pipe
		Mid-division, headway under pressure to chase leaders 4 out, went 2nd last, no chance with winner Opened 20/1, touched 25/1
3rd	1¾ l	Banker Count	13	S Thomas	12-1
			10 1	Miss Venetia Williams
		Made most to 6th, led again 9th, headed 3 out, jumped left next and no impression, lost 2nd and jumped left last Opened 12/1, touched 14/1 £20000-£1400 each way
4th	1¾ l	Tikram	8	A P McCoy	14-1
			11 0	G L Moore
		Held up in rear, headway after 4 out, stayed on from next but not reach leaders Opened 12/1, touched 14/1 £7000-£500
5th	3l	See You Sometime	10	A Thornton	16-1
			10 12	J Mullins
		Prominent, weakened before 3 out
6th	1½ l	Palarshan (FR)	7	M Bradburne	9-1
			11 1	H Daly
		Held up in rear, headway approaching 3 out, kept on but no impression from next Opened 15/2, touched 9/1 £9000-£1000
7th	9l	Horus (IRE)	10	T J Malone(5)	20-1
			11 1	M Pipe
		Mid-division, mistake 2nd, lost place before 14th, tailed off
8th	4l	Tribal Venture (FR)	7	B Harding	7-1
			10 13	Ferdy Murphy
		Held up towards rear, effort and in touch 15th, weakened before 3 out, tailed off Opened 7/1 £5000-£700 each way, £2500-£350, £12000-£2000
9th	16l	Zaffamore (IRE)	9	J Culloty	33-1
			10 2	Miss H Knight
		Mid-division, weakened 14th, soon tailed off £16500-£500
10th	8l	Knock Down (IRE)	6	R Thornton	50-1
			10 11	H Daly
		Always behind Opened 33/1, touched 50/1
11th	14l	Redemption	10	C Llewellyn	33-1
			11 3	N Twiston-Davies
		Always in rear, tailed off
12th	15l	Gunther McBride (IRE)	10	P J Brennan	10-1
			10 11	P Hobbs
		Chased leaders, never going well from 11th, behind from 13th, tailed off £10000-£1000, £5000-£500
Fell		Colonel Frank	8	J P McNamara	4-1
			11 4	B Powell
		Prominent, weakened after 3 out, blundered and fell next Opened 5/1 £11000-£2000, £5500-£1000, £2750-£500, £2500-£500(x2), £9000-£2000, £4500-£1000, £4400-£1100, £2000-£500
Pulled Up		Astonville (FR)	11	B J Crowley	150-1
			11 2	M Scudamore
		Behind, ridden and struggling 11th, tailed off and pulled up after next Opened 100/1, touched 150/1
Pulled Up		Mondial Jack (FR)	6	A Dobbin	33-1
			10 9	M Pipe
		Mid-division, lost place 12th, behind when blundered 14th, pulled up before next Opened 25/1, touched 33/1
Pulled Up		Be My Better Half (IRE)	10	D J Casey	9-1
			10 0	A Moore
		With leader, led 6th to 9th, prominent until weakened 13th, tailed off when pulled up before 3 out Opened 9/1, touched 10/1

Full result from todays race. Interesting fact was that Farmer Jack kept up the trend of horses with an Official rating of 145+ won. He was the only qualifier & with his form on both ground & course/distance was a sound choice today.

[bobsyerunkle]

Re: Racing Post chase - Saturday Excellent write up, full of confidence for the horse, I made it my bet of the day, missed the 6's but got 5.7 after commission on betfair. :clap :clap :clap