Torque's Short Odds Diary

[Torque]

I'm going to try to run this all year, to see if it's possible to make a decent profit at short odds using Betfair. I'll also try to add a few words of reasoning for each pick, as I think it's an important part of finding success at this end of the market. The starting bank for this will be 125 points, and each stake will be 2.5 points. If things go well, and if the bank grows, the stakes may be increased.

[Torque]

Re: Torque's Short Odds Diary WTA Australian Open - Li Na to beat Sorana Cirstea @ 1.11 >Betfair Cirstea has been poor this season so far, and I think her win over Li Na at Wimbledon last year was a bit of a freak result. I could be wrong, but I can't see past an easy win for Li Na.

[Torque]

Re: Torque's Short Odds Diary WTA Australian Open result - Li Na beat Sorana Cirstea 6-4, 6-1 Bet profit/loss: +0.26pts Strike rate: 1/1 Strike rate %: 100.00% Total profit/loss: +0.26pts

[Torque]

Re: Torque's Short Odds Diary Football Dutch Eredivisie - PSV Eindhoven to beat Zwolle @ 1.16 Betfair PSV are going well at the top of the Eredivisie, and face a Zwolle team who are struggling near the bottom of table. It's their first season in the Dutch top flight for a number of seasons, and they appear to be finding it tough. I think PSV will have too much quality and will get the win.

[Torque]

Re: Torque's Short Odds Diary ATP Australian Open - Juan Martin Del Potro to beat Jeremy Chardy @ 1.05 >Betfair Del Potro has had a good start to this tournament, and has beaten Chardy before. Chardy isn't the most consistent of players, and although he might be able to take one set, I think Del Potro will be too good for him and will progress to the next round.

[Torque]

Re: Torque's Short Odds Diary Football Dutch Eredivisie result - PSV Eindhoven 1 - 3 Zwolle Bet profit/loss: -2.5pts Strike rate: 1/2 Strike rate %: 50.00% Total profit/loss: -2.24pts

[Torque]

Re: Torque's Short Odds Diary ATP Australian Open - Marin Cilic to beat Andreas Seppi @ 1.47 >Betfair Cilic won his first two matches in this tournament without problems, and he has a decent record against Seppi. He should be fresher than Seppi, who needed five sets to come through his last match.

[Torque]

Re: Torque's Short Odds Diary ATP Australian Open - Roger Federer to beat Bernard Tomic @ 1.12 >Betfair This is a rematch from last year's tournament, where Federer was an easy winner. Although Tomic looks to be playing reasonably well, I don't think he's capable of beating Federer yet.

[Torque]

Re: Torque's Short Odds Diary Football German Bundesliga - Bayern Munich to beat Greuther Furth @ 1.12 >Betfair Bayern are running away at the top of the league, whilst Greuther Furth are at the bottom of the table. I think Bayern will be motivated to extend their lead in the Bundesliga, and will be far too good for their opponents.

[Torque]

Re: Torque's Short Odds Diary ATP Australian Open - David Ferrer to beat Kei Nishikori @ 1.24 >Betfair Although Nishikori leads the h2h, im not convinced about his fitness at the moment, as he suffered an injury prior to this tournament. Ferrer is one of the fittest players on tour and a real grinder, and he should be able to wear down Nishikori for the win.

[Torque]

Re: Torque's Short Odds Diary WTA Australian Open - Victoria Azarenka to beat Svetlana Kuznetsova @ 1.16 >Betfair Kuznetsova hasn't beaten Azarenka on a hard court in almost five years, and I don't think she will manage it in this match either. She was off the tour for a while last season, and so fitness could be an issue.

[Torque]

Re: Torque's Short Odds Diary I'll be looking to update the stats every few weeks or so. As I stated in the opening post, I'm going to try to keep this going all year. The idea is that this is something that will profit in the long run, and so I don't want to focus too much on how the bank is affected by individual results.

[Skittle]

Re: Torque's Short Odds Diary It might be better if you number the bets as you progress as well as an update on a slightly more regular schedule, maybe weekly depending upon the volume of betting. This may assist other members who might be following you with bets and will help generally to follow your progress. I know you "don't want to focus" on the bank but doing an update every few weeks would possibly put you outside the forum parameters required.

[Torque]

Re: Torque's Short Odds Diary I'll see what I can do. :ok

[Torque]

Re: Torque's Short Odds Diary Selection 9: ATP Australian Open - Novak Djokovic to beat David Ferrer @ 1.13 >Betfair End of the line for Ferrer here I feel. He came back from the brink to win his last match, but I think he would need another miracle to win against Djokovic. He's looked vulnerable at times during this tournament, and I expect Djokovic to take full advantage.

[Torque]

Re: Torque's Short Odds Diary Selection 10: WTA Pattaya Open - Annika Beck to beat Varatchaya Wongteanchai @ 1.20 >Betfair Beck is an emerging player from Germany, who's had a good start to this season. If she wants to improve her ranking she needs decent runs at tournaments like this, and her first match is against an opponent who doesn't play that much at this level.

[Skittle]

Re: Torque's Short Odds Diary

I'll see what I can do. :ok

I see the thought process has brought about a 50% success rate. How are we doing on the other 50%?

[JdsGooner90]

Selection 10: WTA Pattaya Open - Annika Beck to beat Varatchaya Wongteanchai @ 1.20 >Betfair Beck is an emerging player from Germany, who's had a good start to this season. If she wants to improve her ranking she needs decent runs at tournaments like this, and her first match is against an opponent who doesn't play that much at this level.

After reading this i was going to add Beck to win a set to my hunt at 1.02! Luckily enough i dont like Womens Tennis so left it as most of the time its far to unpredictable! How can Beck lose 2-0 to someone whos almost 200 places below her in the rankings!

[Skittle]

Re: Torque's Short Odds Diary It's very simple. Outside of the main Grand Slam tournaments tennis matches are very susceptible to being fixed. They are low key matches and it's been very well documented in the past about the questionable results that pop up now and then. There's a lot of punters who get their fingers burned on a regular basis from betting on things they have absolutely no knowledge of. Whether it's some small tennis tournament or a Latvian Winter Cup football match you are taking that needless risk.

[Torque]

Re: Torque's Short Odds Diary It certainly was a shock result. However, the odds implied roughly an 80 percent chance of success - which means a 20 percent chance of failure. As for any suggestion that I picked this match blindly, I did not. I looked at a number of different variables and it looked good to me. Just because it did not come in does not mean it was a bad pick. Equally, a bet can win and still be a bad bet. I had planned to update the thread every ten bets or so, but it's not going particularly well so I'm going to knock it on the head.

[Skittle]

Re: Torque's Short Odds Diary That often happens. :wall Think more about a positive thread next time.

[Torque]

Re: Torque's Short Odds Diary

That often happens. :wall Think more about a positive thread next time.

Can you elaborate on this?

[Skittle]

Re: Torque's Short Odds Diary A quick look around some of the older threads on here will show you what I mean. People have half an idea an just run with it, then, the odd losing bet and they give up and move on to something else. That's a negative in my book, a positive step would be to evaluate things and see why it went wrong. That's probably the sort of thing that comes with more experience though.