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Smarty72

By Smarty72
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Smarty72

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 RESULTS 15.30 Huntingdon - Easter Day - Win @ 8\13 Bet365 BOG 1st SP 4\9 WON + 0.62 Pts 16.20 Ayr - The Tracey Shuffle - Win @ 6\4 Bet365 BOG 5th SP 6\5 LOST - 1 pts Wins > 26 Bets > 68 P/L > -6.54pt Jan > -11.23 Pts Feb > +4.69 Pts Feb Form - 5th-1st-5th-6th-4th-1st-2nd-1st-2nd-1st-3rd-2nd-PU-1st-1st-1st-1st-1st-F-1st-1st-1st-2nd-1st-2nd-2nd-1st-2nd-1st-5th

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Smarty72

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Saturday 22nd February 13.00 Fairyhouse - Stocktons Wing - Win @ 6\4 PP BOG 2nd last time out in a Grade 2 hurdle over 2m at Leopardstown last time out. Time before was also 2nd to Our Conner here over 2m in a grade 3. Both races were on soft ground the same as expected here. Good form and expect to go one better here. The current favorite Dogora is worth opposing with this horse who has the experience and form for this grade 2 juvenile hurdle. 14.35 Fairyhouse - Prince De Beauchene - Win @ 6\4 PP BOG Big Grand National fancy and expect to win this before going for his target race. Won this race last year on same soft ground, so no issues with course, distance or ground. Has had one race over hurdles this season so fitness no issues. 14.05 Kempton - Irish Saint - Win @ 7\4 Bet365 BOG 2nd last time at Cheltenham beaten near the finish by Rolling Star in a Grade 2 on heavy ground. Only 3 career races and the flat track here at Kempton will suit better and should also improve for the better ground. Expect Ruby Walsh/Paul Nicholls to do the business in this race. 14.40 Kempton - Molotof - Win @ 5\4 Bet365 BOG Look really impressive last time when winning at Warwick in class 2 handicap chase and distance looks no issue. Lightly raced chaser with 4 runs to date with 2 at 3 miles which looked to far but still open to improvement. Looks to be another good chaser from the Henderson Stable and Barry Geraghty is the jockey today. 15.15 Kempton - Lac Fontana - Win @ 2\1 Bet365 BOG 4yo hurdler up against his elders after only one novice hurdle when 2nd to Chatterbox at Newbury. Chatterbox looks a really good horse been the only horse to beat My Tent Or Yours, the hot favourite for the supreme novice hurdle. If he runs to that level of form and shows improvement will win easily. Paul Nichols is not afraid to run them if he feels they are good enough and Lac Fontana has shown enough in his only hurdle race to be heading to the top.

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Results 13.00 Fairyhouse - Stocktons Wing - Win @ 6\4 PP BOG 1st SP 5\4 WON + 1.5 Pts 14.35 Fairyhouse - Prince De Beauchene - Win @ 6\4 PP BOG 2nd SP 8\11 LOST -1 Pt 14.05 Kempton - Irish Saint - Win @ 7\4 Bet365 BOG 1st SP 5\4 WON + 1.75 Pts 14.40 Kempton - Molotof - Win @ 5\4 Bet365 BOG 2nd SP 11\8 LOST -1 Pt 15.15 Kempton - Lac Fontana - Win @ 2\1 Bet365 BOG 3rd SP 9\4 LOST -1 Pt Wins > 28 Bets > 73 P/L > -6.29pt Jan > -11.23 Pts Feb > +4.94 Pts Feb Form - 5th-1st-5th-6th-4th-1st-2nd-1st-2nd-1st-3rd-2nd-PU-1st-1st-1st-1st-1st-F-1st-1st-1st-2nd-1st-2nd-2nd-1st-2nd-1st-5th-1st-2nd-1st-2nd-3rd

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Thursday 28th February 15.10 Taunton - Jump City - Win @ 11\8 Bet365 BOG Paul Nicholls runner in this handicap chase. Winning on debut over fences at Newton Abbott on soft ground when he jumped well for Daryl Jacob. Then went to Cheltenham where never in the race for a class 2 novice chase. Last time out here at Taunton was a 9l length 3rd over 2.5f further. Drop back to 2m half a furlong will suit, no issues with ground having won on soft and looks likely to improve.

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Results 15.10 Taunton - Jump City - Win @ 11\8 Bet365 BOG 2nd SP 5\6 LOST - 1pt Wins > 28 Bets > 74 P/L > -7.29pt Jan > -11.23 Pts Feb > +3.94 Pts Feb Form - 5th-1st-5th-6th-4th-1st-2nd-1st-2nd-1st-3rd-2nd-PU-1st-1st-1st-1st-1st-F-1st-1st-1st-2nd-1st-2nd-2nd-1st-2nd-1st-5th-1st-2nd-1st-2nd-3rd-2nd

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 February Review 36 bets with 17 winners for a Strike rate of 47% and a level stake profit of 3.94pts. Much happier with my performance and discipline. Still showing a loss overall due to a poor January. Still need to focus on the same guidelines imposed for February. Looking at the bets made this month, there were probably 5 not 100% confident about and these need to be avoided in the future, any doubts about a selection needs to be NO BET! Pleased that I am now not looking to back something everyday. Lets hope that March can be as disciplined and can continue to claw back the early losses. Need 100% confidence that I have backed the best horse in the race to win!

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Latest betting guidelines after analysis of all bets to date this year. Win Only (1pt) Class 3 races or above All races - Max 10 runners No Handicap races. Going to go with this for March and see if I can continue making progress with my betting success/failure. Will produce short priced selections but if the strike rate is good enough with careful selection processes should provide profit!

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Saturday 2nd March 13.45 Doncaster - Ma Filleule - Win @ 1\3 Bet365 BOG The only Mare in this 4 runner race to contest any race at a higher level winning a Grade 2 LTO at Warwick on heavy ground. Prior to that was 2nd twice in listed company and none of her rivals look any where near her class. Should improve for better ground. AP McCoy rides for Nicky Henderson and it is a question of how far she wins. Very short odds but looks a long way better than her rivals. OTHER BETS CONSIDERED - NO BET Brick Red - 2/1 PP BOG or Eduard - Evs PP BOG Unable to decide between the 2. Eduard 3rd to Melodic Rendezvous looks top class form but Brick Red good 2nd in G2 last Saturday. Both look really good novice hurdlers. Brick Red appeals at the prices but Eduard has had a 24 day break and an easy race last time. Harry Topper - 5\4 Bet365 BOG Backed last time at Exeter and looks a really good long term prospect but have doubts about him carrying top weight for an inexperienced chaser. Looks a top class horse but Ballabriggs (Grand National Winning horse) gets 10lb due to race conditions.

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013

Saturday 2nd March 13.45 Doncaster - Ma Filleule - Win @ 1\3 Bet365 BOG The only Mare in this 4 runner race to contest any race at a higher level winning a Grade 2 LTO at Warwick on heavy ground. Prior to that was 2nd twice in listed company and none of her rivals look any where near her class. Should improve for better ground. AP McCoy rides for Nicky Henderson and it is a question of how far she wins. Very short odds but looks a long way better than her rivals. OTHER BETS CONSIDERED - NO BET Brick Red - 2/1 PP BOG or Eduard - Evs PP BOG Unable to decide between the 2. Eduard 3rd to Melodic Rendezvous looks top class form but Brick Red good 2nd in G2 last Saturday. Both look really good novice hurdlers. Brick Red appeals at the prices but Eduard has had a 24 day break and an easy race last time. Harry Topper - 5\4 Bet365 BOG Backed last time at Exeter and looks a really good long term prospect but have doubts about him carrying top weight for an inexperienced chaser. Looks a top class horse but Ballabriggs (Grand National Winning horse) gets 10lb due to race conditions.
Ma Filleule a Non Runner 13.45 - Tweedledrum - Win @ 8\11 Bet365 BOG Now reduced to a 3 runner race and Tweedledrum looks a really good price for this listed mares novice hurdle. Has won a class 2 handicap 2 runs back over 3m 1f and that is clearly the best form on offer. Has plenty of hurdles experience for a novice with 15 runs. Will get the distance having been 2nd and 1st on last 2 runs over this sort of distance. 15.40 Kelso - Eduard - Win @ 4\5 Bet365 BOG Evs available last night now gone but having looked at this race again going with Eduard who won very easily LTO at Carlisle and was a good 3rd to Melodic Rendezvous prior to that at Cheltenham. Melodic Rendezvous has gone on to win a Grade 1 and a listed race and the form looks really strong. Eduard has had a 24 day break since his last run. 16.15 Kelso - Harry Topper - Win @ 10\11 PP BOG Price shortened since last night but backed last time and I feel that this is a horse worth following. 3 from 3 over fences this season over todays distance with a class 2 win, Grade 2 Novice chase and win on debut over fences. Ground and distance will be no issue and jumps really well and will take a lot of beating. Has to carry joint top weight but this horse has everything going for it with his leading rivals not showing good recent jumping form.
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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 RESULTS 13.45 - Tweedledrum - Win @ 8\11 Bet365 BOG 1st SP 10\11 WON + 0.91 Pts 15.40 Kelso - Eduard - Win @ 4\5 Bet365 BOG 2nd SP 4\5 LOST - 1 Pt 16.15 Kelso - Harry Topper - Win @ 10\11 PP BOG UR SP 4\5 LOST - 1pt Should not have made the last 2 bets today, had doubts last night and should have stuck with this. Changed mind this morning and decided to back these two. Wins > 29 Bets > 77 P/L > -8.38pt Jan > -11.23 Pts Feb > +3.94 Pts March > -1.09 Pts March Form - 1st-2nd-UR

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Monday 4th March 14.00 Southwell - Conquisto - Win @ 8\15 Bet365 BOG Fourth outing over fences for this horse having a win on debut and then 2 seconds after. Jumping has been good so far and has completed all hurdles and chases to date. Rated 15lb better than next best but only has to concede 7lbs and looks a lot better than all the others. Has some good hurdles form on Good ground winning 3 races and this looks a an easy opportunity to win. Always nervous with odds on selections but can not see any negatives regarding form, class, distance and ground.

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Thursday 6th March 14.30 Wincanton - Ruben Cotter - Win @ 4/6 PP BOG Won on debut at Doncaster on debut over 3m 2f on good ground beating Vintage Star by 8l. This race at Wincanton at a similar distance and on similar ground with only 3 other rivals looks an easy opportunity to follow up. Paul Nicholls has his horses in good form and this looks a generous price from Paddy Power and can see this shortening in the morning.

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Saturday 9th March 16.25 Sandown - Rebel Rebellion - Win @ 5\6 Stan James BOG Won on debut on fences at Exeter before stepping up in class and finishing 4th behind Captain Conan in a Grade 1 novice chase at Cheltenham then 3rd to Super Duty again at Cheltenham. This class 3 novice chase will be much easier and no other runner has the form of Rebel Rebellion. Clearly not a top class novice chaser for Paul Nicholls but should comfortably win this race. Drop back to the minimum trip should suit and the expected soft ground should be no issue. OR of 140 looks high but still clearly the best horse in this race.

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Tuesday 12th March 14.05 Cheltenham - Simonsig - Win @ 4\6 PP BOG Two runs over fences winning easily both times. Has had one previous Cheltenham run in the Neptune Novice hurdle last year when again winning comfortably. Track looks no issue, ground will be no issue and distance will prove no problem. Simonsig is the top novice chaser of this season and this looks the banker of the first day against 6 rivals.

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Wednesday 13th March 15.20 Cheltenham - Sprinter Sacre - Win @ 3\10 PP BOG A monster of the horse and the banker of the meeting. Twice a winner over the Cheltenham fences including the festival last year in the Arkle Chase and is undefeated from 7 chase runs. Ground, distance, course and the winner of five grade 1 chases at this distance. No other horse is of the same class. A true Superstar.

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Friday 15th March 14.20 Fakenham - Barlow - Win @ 4\5 PP BOG 4 chase runs and yet to win but has been up against some good horses in its races so far. Pulled up on debut when a bad mistake 3 out when 3rd. 3rd and just under 3 lengths behind Godsmejudge on next run. Then 4th and last time out was 2nd at Sandown. Jumping getting better and gets a good allowance with a 7lb claimer on board. Looks a good opportunity to win with all races so far at similar distances and ground.

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Sunday 17th March 15.00 Carlisle - Kealigolane - Win @ 11\4 StanJames BOG Consistant Novice chaser with 6 runs over fences with one win over course and distance and heavy ground. Looks to be slowly improving and experience should see this one finish first. Carlisle has a very tough finish which requires a horse with stamina or course winning form to win. Ticks all the boxes for me.

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013

Thursday 28th February 15.10 Taunton - Jump City - Win @ 11\8 Bet365 BOG Paul Nicholls runner in this handicap chase. Winning on debut over fences at Newton Abbott on soft ground when he jumped well for Daryl Jacob. Then went to Cheltenham where never in the race for a class 2 novice chase. Last time out here at Taunton was a 9l length 3rd over 2.5f further. Drop back to 2m half a furlong will suit, no issues with ground having won on soft and looks likely to improve.
Tuesday 19th March 15.00 Exeter - Jump City - Win @ Evs PP BOG Keeping faith in this horse which finished 2nd by a nose in the above race a handicap novice chase. 2m 3.5f today, hopefully distance is now right, ground should be no problem and has been jumping well.
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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps/Flat Betting Thread - 2013 Thursday 21st March 15.20 Cork - Tarla - Win @ 5\2 Bet365 BOG Lots of excuses already for the favourite Rebel Fitz with ground, fitness and distance all mentioned as not satisfactory. Tarla looks the best of the rest to take advantage. Back hurdling after 2 recent falls while novice chasing. Hurdles form looks excellent prior to chasing with 6 wins, 3 seconds from 11 hurdles runs, has won on heavy and soft ground and over todays distance. On paper has a bit to find with favourite but if runs to previous form will be very close.

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps/Flat Betting Thread - 2013 Friday 22nd March 14.30 Doncaster - Model Pupil - Win @ Evs PP BOG Looks to be the class horse of the race with just 4 runs for this 4yo colt. Won first time out last season at Newmarket and 2nd by a nose in a Group 3 over 12f on soft ground. Distance and ground should not be an issue and could still improve. Top on official ratings but gets small weight allowance (2lb) for been a 4yo.

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