Jumps/Flat Bets

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 SUNDAY 13th JANUARY 14.20 Kelso - Gleann Na Ndochais - WIN @ 15\8 BET365 BOG Class 4 Handicap Chase over 2m 1f on heavy ground (6 runners) This should between the selection and Sergeant Pink who has been raised 4lb for beating the selection 4 lengths at Ayr last time. Expect Gleann Na Ndochais to improve and get the better this time. Has only raced over fences twice and will still improve. Jockey Ewan Whillans has been riding well on his dads horses in the last 14 days.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 RESULTS 14.20 Kelso - Gleann Na Ndochais - WIN @ 15\8 BET365 BOG SP 2\1 LOST - 1pt Class 4 Handicap Chase over 2m 1f on heavy ground (6 runners) Chased leader but blundered 5th and unseated rider. Not a reliable jumper and probably best avoided. Wins > 7 Bets > 28 P/L > -14.40pt

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 MONDAY 14th JANUARY 15.10 Plumpton - No No Bingo - Win @ 10\3 BET365 BOG Class 3 Handicap Chase over 2m 4f on expected soft ground. Run 4 times over chase fences with 2 wins and a second and a fifth on debut. Has won at this distance and on heavy ground twice so will be better on expected soft today. With many of the rivals probably wanting further will have a good chance today. Has been put up 7lb for last win but should still improve. Today's jockey Noel Fehily has had the last 2 rides.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Last bet for a week due to holidays. Will update and resume when back.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 SATURDAY 19th JANUARY 13.35 Naas - Solwhit - WIN @ 8\11 Stan James BOG A really class horse on the come back trail. Has had a run 19 days ago finishing second at Punchestown its first run since Jan 2011 and that should get fitness spot on for today. A hurdles record of 10 wins (6 grade 1), 6 seconds (4 of them to Hurricane Fly) and 1 third in 19 runs prove the ability and class of this horse. Would not need to be anywhere near its best to win this.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 RESULT - MONDAY 14th JANUARY 15.10 Plumpton - No No Bingo - Win @ 10\3 BET365 BOG SP 15\8 LOST -1pt Big disappointment and pulled up when never in with a chance. Made mistake and dropped to last. Wins > 7 Bets > 29 P/L > -15.40pt

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 RESULT - SATURDAY 19th JANUARY 13.35 Naas - Solwhit - WIN @ 8\11 Stan James BOG SP 4\5 WIN + 0.8pt Good performance and jumped well over hurdles, never really challenged and stayed on well. Wins > 8 Bets > 30 P/L > -14.60pt

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 WEDNESDAY 23rd January 15.10 Ayr - Consigliere - 1 Pt Win @ 6\4 PP BOG Class 3 Handicap Chase over 2m 4f on Soft ground Connections have made the long journey from Somerset with this David Pipe runner which finished 2nd last time out at Wincanton in a class 2 Handicap chase. Has winning form in class 2 and should be comfortable with the drop in class today and is racing of the same mark as last time. First time at this level since winning in 2009 and has been running in higher races since. Conditional jockey Kieron Edgar takes of a valuable 7lb which will make the difference.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 RESULTS - WEDNESDAY 23rd January 15.10 Ayr - Consigliere - 1 Pt Win @ 6\4 PP BOG SP 9\4 + 2.25 PTS Really good victory winning by 9l. Clearly benifited from drop in class. Will go back up in weights now and unlikely to have the same effect in higher grade races. Wins > 9 Bets > 31 P/L > -12.35pt

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 POSTED IN BBOTD - YESTERDAY 14.25 Gowran Park - Zaidpour - Win @ 5\4 Bet365 BOG SP 11\10 LOST - 1pt Grade 2 Hurdle Won this last year with Ruby Walsh on slightly better ground. Has had 2 runs this season so far which should put him spot on for today's race. Has 2 grade 1 win's in the book and 3 grade 2 wins. Ground should be no issue having won on heavy. With the world hurdle at Cheltenham the likely target, I expect a good performance today and see Mullins confirming the world hurdle as his Cheltenham target. RESULT - 2nd (never looked like getting the better of Bog Warrior Wins > 9 Bets > 32 P/L > -13.35pt

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 SATURDAY 26th JANUARY 15.00 Cheltenham - The New One - 1pt win @ 10\11 Stan James Grade 2 Novice hurdle over 2m 4.5f on expected soft ground Backed this at Warwick early last time and got Evens and this price now is an absolute gift! Course winner here in October and unbeaten over 3 hurdle runs with a grade 2 already to his name. This harder than last time but still expect to win easy today and show that he is a real top class horse. Will go off at a lot shorter price. Additional Note Sprinter Sacre is a Cert but far to short in odds to back (2/9) and Arvika Ligeonniere (4\7) is a strong fancy but again to short to back. Maybe one more bet in the Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle or Grade 2 Argento chase, but all other races discounted as avoiding big field races and handicaps.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 15.35 Cheltenham - Reve De Sivola - 1pt Win @ 5\2 PP BOG Grade 2 Hurdle over 3m on expected soft ground. Oscar Whisky is the class act and favourite but at his only previous attempt at 3m seemed to fail to stay in the World Hurdle in march. On the expected soft ground and with an expected good pace there are doubts about staying the distance up the hill. Reve De Sivola has no issues with the ground, will stay the distance, performs at the track and won the Grade 1 Long Walk hurdle last time out at Ascot.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 RESULTS 15.00 Cheltenham - The New One - 1pt win @ 10\11 Stan James SP 4\5 LOST - 1pt 2nd 15.35 Cheltenham - Reve De Sivola - 1pt Win @ 5\2 PP BOG SP 15\8 WON +2.5pt Wins > 10 Bets > 34 P/L > -11.85pt

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 WEDNESDAY 30TH JANUARY 15.30 Leicester - Buddy Bolero - Win @ 13\8 PP BOG (Got the 7\4 available but price now gone - will use 13\8 for threads records) Class 3 Handicap Chase over 2m 7.5f on expected soft ground. Marked this as an eyecatcher after his debut chase run at Exeter and this looks an excellent opportunity to follow up. One chase run to date when winning on New Years Day at Exeter over 2m 4f on heavy ground. The front two pulled well clear that day and Buddy Bolero jumped well and stayed on well. The champion jockey is on board for this David Pipe runner and the pair have combined well with 29% strike rate over fences. Currently holds 2 entry's for Cheltenham, the Jewson novice chase and the National Hunt Chase for Amateur Jockeys over 4m. Will handle the expected soft ground, expected to stay based on future targets, top jockey on board and looks as if will improve.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 RESULT - WEDNESDAY 30TH JANUARY 15.30 Leicester - Buddy Bolero - Win @ 13\8 PP BOG SP 10\11 WON + 1.62 Pts Very Easy winner and would expect to go for the National Hunt chase at Cheltenham. Wins > 11 Bets > 35 P/L > -10.23pt

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 THURSDAY 31ST JANUARY 14.10 Wincanton - Tenor Nivernais - WIN @ 5\4 PP BOG Class 4 novice chase over 2m 5f on expected heavy ground. Fourth of five runners last time at Newbury on heavy ground but looked as if he was staying on well at the end and the winner that day won comfortably today (Module). Time before that won at Bangor beating Malt Master (won since). Has had 3 career chase runs in total. Ground will be no issue, looks as if will stay the distance and jockey has had previous rides and wins (1 chase and 2 hurdles) on the horse.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 RESULT - THURSDAY 31ST JANUARY 14.10 Wincanton - Tenor Nivernais - WIN @ 5\4 PP BOG SP 11\8 LOST - 1pt Unseated rider 3 out when in contention. Likely to follow up next time out if a similar week event can be found. Ambion Wood does not look up to been a chaser coming to a virtual stand still at the last. The winner Milans Well came from a long way back to win benefiting from Valoroso falling when well clear at the last and Ambion Wood came to a stop at the last and finished very slowly. Wins > 11 Bets > 36 P/L > -11.23pt Review of January's performance to come with lessons learnt.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Although showed nearly a 11 point loss for the month pleased with a strike rate of 30%. EW betting and big field handicaps was where i lost money and this is the area of betting I need to cut down on. Have not got the experience to analysis these races correctly. Going to impose a number of rules to narrow down races studied and potential bets. Win Only (1pt) All races - Max 8 runner - Exception to this rule Listed races or above (Max 10 Runners - May reduce this) For January my record based on these guidelines would have been 11 wins, 24 Bets, 46% SR and Profit of 4.77 pts Need to stay focused and maintain discipline with my betting and hopefully claw some of these losses back in February.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 FRIDAY 1st FEBRUARY 15.55 Catterick - Ros Castle - Win @ 11\4 Bet365 BOG Class 3 Handicap Chase over 2m 3f 3 chase runs to date, winning on debut then 2 seconds in handicap chases since. Soft ground will be no issue having won on heavy. Hopefully will stay having only run over 17f over fences but has run over further when hurdling with limited success. Clearly not a stayer (PU at 3m 1f over hurdles but should be ok with this distance. Wilson Renwick is the jockey and regular rider for the horse and has a good record at this track with a decent level stakes profit over the last 5 years.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 RESULTS _ FRIDAY 1st FEBRUARY 15.55 Catterick - Ros Castle - Win @ 11\4 Bet365 BOG SP 7\2 LOST -1 PT Jumped well apart from one mistake at the 10th. Always handy and in a position to go on and win but had nothing left at the end of the race and maybe best at 16/17f and finished 5th of 8. Winner Kandari quickened well to win easy after the last after been held up most of the way around by McCoy. Wins > 11 Bets > 37 P/L > -12.23pt

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 SATURDAY 2nd FEBRUARY 15.00 Sandown - Captain Conan - WIN @ 4\9 Bet365 BOG Grade 1 Novice Chase. Class horse and a good jumper with 2 chase runs to date winning both a G1 and G2 at 2m. Up 4f in distance today but should be no issue and expect to win easy and confirm Jewson as main Cheltenham target. Ground heavy at Sandown today is the only concern. Probably should not make this bet but can not see losing.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 SATURDAY 2nd FEBRUARY 15.35 Sandown - Roberto Goldback - WIN @ 7\1 BET365 BOG Class 2 Handicap Chase Keep looking at this one and feel that the price is to good for a horse that has won a G3 chase this season. Distance will be no issue as mainly campaigned around this distance, is consistent at a higher level than this class 2. Has to give lots of weight to all the other runners but all the others will need to show a good improvement to win and beat this horse. Is entered for the national and a win may damage its mark for that but feel it is worth a bet. Barry Geraghty on board for this Henderson horse.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Double Post

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 RESULTS 15.00 Sandown - Captain Conan - WIN @ 4\9 Bet365 BOG SP 1\2 WON +0.5pt Did not make easy work of it but came late to win by a neck in last few strides. 15.35 Sandown - Roberto Goldback - WIN @ 7\1 Bet365 BOG SP 7\1 LOST -1pt Raced in rear and never threatening but finished well and seemed to be staying on. Grand National looks a good future option. Wins > 12 Bets > 39 P/L > -12.73pt

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 SUNDAY 3rd FEBRUARY 13.30 Musselburgh - Aerial - WIN @ 7\4 BET365 BOG Class 3 Novice Hurdle Lots of chase experience but only been over hurdles once in the country finishing 2nd last time out over 3m at Cheltenham on heavy ground in a grade 2. That form should be enough to win this and receives 6lb from all the other runners. 14.00 Mussleburgh - Tap Night - WIN @ 10\11 BET365 BOG Class 3 Novice Chase Won easy on chase debut and booking of Barry Geraghty looks interesting for this Lucinda Russell and JP McManus horse. 13.20 Punchestown - Mozoltov - WIN @ 11\4 BET365 BOG Grade 2 Novice Hurdle Don Cossack did not jump well last time and fell but is still the favourite. Feel he is worth opposing with this Walsh/Mullins hurdler who won really easy on maiden hurdles debut.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 RESULTS - SUNDAY 3rd FEBRUARY 13.30 Musselburgh - Aerial - WIN @ 7\4 BET365 BOG SP 7\4 LOST -1pt 14.00 Mussleburgh - Tap Night - WIN @ 10\11 BET365 BOG SP 4\7 LOST -1pt 13.20 Punchestown - Mozoltov - WIN @ 11\4 BET365 BOG SP 9\4 WON +2.75 pt Wins > 13 Bets > 42 P/L > -11.98pt Jan > -11.23 Pts Feb > -0.75 Pts

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 MONDAY 3RD FEBRUARY 14.25 Doncaster - Vintage Star - WIN @ 11/10 PP BOG Class 4 Novice Chase 3 chase runs to date finishing 2nd on debut behind Cloudy Too who won Saturday at Wetherby in a Class 2 Handicap Chase. Then 2nd again here at Doncaster before winning at Catterick over 3m 2f (todays distance) on soft ground by over 28l. Ryan Mania rides again after been on board for all 3 chase runs.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 MONDAY 3rd FEBRUARY 15.00 - ROCK ON RUBY - WIN @ 2\1 PP BOG Listed Hurdle Three contenders in Darlan, Rock On Ruby and Countrywide Flame but with the ground drying out to good to soft think this will suit Rock On Ruby the reigning Champion Hurdler. The price is to good for a top class hurdler and think Darlan the odds on favourite is worth opposing who may not be fully fit as Henderson's horse have struggled recently.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 RESULTS 14.25 Doncaster - Vintage Star - WIN @ 11/10 PP BOG SP 6\4 LOST -1pt 15.00 - ROCK ON RUBY - WIN @ 2\1 PP BOG SP 13\8 WON + 2pt Wins > 14 Bets > 44 P/L > -10.98pt Jan > -11.23 Pts Feb > +0.25 Pts

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 13.25 Fairyhouse - Seabass - Win @ 4\1 Obviously been given the run in this hurdle race to protect his current chase handicap rating of 154 until the weights have been published for the grand national. Not been over hurdles since one race in 2007 but gets 7lb from the 2 market leaders and this could be crucial at the death. Would probably only need to run a stone under its chase OR to win this and the 2 market leaders (Make Your Mark and Rock Critic) would both need to be pretty useful to beat this horse. Has the services of Ruby Walsh in the saddle, a distance winner over fences, a course winner and a win will not effect its chase OR. Looks a good bet at the odds for a horse with class.