Jumps/Flat Bets

[Smarty72]

A record of all my Jumps/Flat racing bets. Most will be short priced selections. Would not advise to follow as learning the game but hopefully will help my discipline and make profit! All bets will be 1 pt win and class 3 races above and not handicaps. Also going to follow new Flat Trainer Olly Stevens. Moved to seperate thread.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 MONDAY 1st January 2013 4 Short priced selections for me today that I hope will give a good performance. 13.10 Catterick - See What Happens - Win @ 4\7 Bet365 BOG Had a great start to life under rules racing, finishing 2nd in novice hurdle, 1st in novice hurdle then 2nd to African Broadway (mixed form since) in a begineers chase. Nothing else in the race will get close to this lightly raced horse which should improve. 13.30 Exeter - Ambion Wood - Win @ Evs Bet365 BOG Really good hurdler and won a G3 at Sandown over todays course and distance and has won on heavy ground over hurdles. Vic Dartnell always has some success at his local course and describes this horse as a natural over fences. Better hurdles form than any other horse. 14.10 Tramore - Roi Du Mee - Win @ 6\4 Bet365 BOG In really good form this season with a 5th on good ground on seasonal reappearance. Since then on worst ground has won 2 chase and a hurdle, so seems to like the heavy ground (4 wins from 6 on heavy) of today. Has won a chase at G2 and two at G3 so a listed event is well within its capabilities. Distance no issue either. 14.40 Exeter - Hawkes Point - Win 11/10 >Bet365 BOG Class 3 novice chase and probably Ruby Walsh's top ride of the day (I expected him to go to Tramore to ride Blazing Tempo for Mullins in the Listed chase after Cheltenham called off). Good jumping performance to finish 2nd on soft over 2m 4f on debut. Good hurdles form at distances from 2m 6f to 3m with one win over hurdles on heavy at 3m. Ground and distance will be no problem and looks a good jumper with one of the best jockeys on board.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 RESULTS 13.10 Catterick - See What Happens - Win @ 4\7 Bet365 BOG SP 4\9 LOST -1pt 2nd 8 lengths behind winner. An eventful race with 5 runners departing by half way reducing it to a 2 horse race. The selection was in charge for the majority of the race with good jumping until a blunder 3 out and then had no extra on the run in and was out stayed by the winner. Probably needs better ground to see out the distance. 13.30 Exeter - Ambion Wood - Win @ Evs Bet365 BOG SP 11\10 LOST -1pt Last of the 5 finishers. Big disappointment and did not look a natural chaser with lots of poor jumps. The front two Buddy Bolero (1st) and Theatrical Star are the two to watch in future finishing 25 lengths clear of third. 14.10 Tramore - Roi Du Mee - Win @ 6\4 Bet365 BOG SP EVS WON +1.5pt Easy 7.5l winner with a good jumping performance and never under pressure in this 4 runner race. Worth following at this level on this ground and distance. 14.40 Exeter - Hawkes Point - Win 11/10 >Bet365 BOG SP 5\6 WON +1.1pt Hawkes Point and 2nd Gullinbursti 32l clear of the rest and it was always a 2 horse race. Both jumped well and a good staying performance by both horses. Hawkes Point won by 2.25l and will be interesting where Paul Nicholls sends next. Wins > 2 Bets > 4 P/L > +0.6pt

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 14.50 Ayr - Desert Cry - Win @ 7\4 PP BOG 3 runs over chases so far improving each time and winning at Haydock last time easily beating Kudu Country by 10l on heavy ground over todays distance of 2m in class 3. Distance, Ground and Class of race all ok and Jockey Jason Maguire and trainer Donald McCain both in good form recently. Two previous runs at hurdles at the course, last time in the Scottish Champion Hurdle (G2) when 7th and in a novice hurdle 2 years ago when 2nd.

[bowles10]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Good luck smarty with this, i'm sure there will be plenty of winners in the thread at the prices. I expect your strike rate will be around 40%+ Rob

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 14.50 Ayr - Desert Cry - Win @ 7\4 PP BOG SP 5\4 WON + 1.75 Won by 3l from Kudu Country confirming form from last race at haydock. Generally jumped well (2 dodgy jumps) and handled ground. May be interesting where goes next will depend on handicappers response and class of race. Only 7 and fourth chase so still room for improvement. Wins > 3 Bets > 5 P/L > +2.35pt

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 14.00 Ayr - Tipsy Dara - Win @ 5\2 PP BOG 8 Chases runs all ridden by Lucy Alexander and has won 4 and 3rd once. All these runs on heavy or soft and with the ground heavy the kind of horse needed. Has won at distances of 2m 4f twice (heavy and soft) , 2m 5f (heavy) and 3m 1f (heavy). This horse will stay and has no problems with the ground with an experienced conditional jockey on board.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 14.00 Ayr - Tipsy Dara - Win @ 5\2 PP BOG SP 11\4 WON +2.75 Won by 2.5l despite Lucy dropping her whip! One jumping mistake but recovered and stayed on to win comfortably. Wins > 4 Bets > 6 P/L > +5.1pt

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Friday 4th January 14.10 Musselburgh - Inoogoo - Win @ 4\1 PP BOG 11 runner beginners race over 2m 4f on expected soft ground. 3 chase runs to date. Fell on debut when close third at Perth three fences out and the 2nd that day was Carlito Brigante who won a C2 chase at Cheltenham next time out. Inoogoo then went to Aintree and was 5l behind Unioiniste (now rated 153 OR), last time out on soft was hammered by Captain Conan in G2 at Cheltenham. Do not expect anything of that calibre in this race and jumping experience gained from these 3 races means that Inoogoo should be up there at the finish. Only 6 in the race have been in a chase 14.40 Musselburgh - Vallani - EW @ 9\1 PP BOG Course and distance winner on soft and has also won twice at Perth at this distance on soft and heavy. Has run 37 times for these 3 wins but been 2nd 5 times (3 times here but good) and 3rd twice (here once). Jockey Craig Nichol has ridden once before to victory at Perth and claims 7. Expect a place at least. 14.50 Lingfield - Noble Legend - WIN @ 7\4 PP BOG 7 runs over chases with 4 wins then a 2nd in his last 5 runs. Andrew Thornton has ridden all of his runs and rides again today. Has won on heavy at todays distance, so ground and distance no issue. Good solid jumper. Carrys top weight but still improving.

[cpo]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Good start mate. Long may it continue. I like the look of Vallani as well. Was between that one and the one I eventually went with for my BBOTD. Good luck tomorrow :ok

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 RESULTS 14.10 Musselburgh - Inoogoo - Win @ 4\1 PP BOG SP 9\4 LOST -1pt 6th of 8. Jumped left but up with it until 5 out when started to fade badly. Probably should leave these Beginners chases alone unless previous solid form shown. 14.40 Musselburgh - Vallani - EW @ 9\1 PP BOG SP 12\1 LOST -2pts Always behind and was impeded early on. Never in the race when hampered 3 out and pulled up. The winner Any Given Moment came through to finish strongly from front running Goldtrek. 14.50 Lingfield - Noble Legend - WIN @ 7\4 PP BOG SP 4\5 LOST -1pt 4th of the 4 finishers over 68l behind the winner. Led until 4th fence then never in contention. Wins > 4 Bets > 9 P/L > +1.1pt

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 SATURDAY 5th JANUARY 13.50 Sandown - Williams Wishes - WIN @ 5\4 PP BOG Class 2 2m Handicap chase on expected soft ground. Good win at Ascot on heavy ground in a class 2 chase over 1f longer at Ascot after long absence. 4 out of 4 over fences and will improve for that run. Paul Moloney has all rides for Evan Williams on this horse so knows well. This looks a good horse and is a reliable jumper. Will be hard to beat. 14.05 Wincanton - Landscape - WIN @ 5\2 PP BOG Class 3 Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f on expected heavy ground. Landscape won at Taunton last week under today's jockey Harry Derham over this distance on heavy ground. Not penalised for that win and can go in again under similar conditions. Still looks well handicapped. 15.00 Sandown - Softsong - WIN @ 6\1 Bet365 BOG Class 2 Handicap Hurdle over 2m 1/2f on expected heavy ground. Still a novice over hurdles (4 runs - 3 in UK) but an excellent run last time on handicap debut in a listed event to finish 3rd (3l) behind Petit Robin the winner who followed up with a 2nd in another listed handicap hurdle. Conditional Jockey Micheal Nolan claims a valuable 5lb and this horse looks as if there is improvement to come. 15.15 Wincanton - Big Freeze - WIN @ 11\4 BET365 BOG Class 4 Novice Handicap Chase over 3m 1.5F on expected heavy ground. The likely favourite Sulpius looks worth opposing with this horse who is more likely to stay having won a similar type of race at Exeter over 3m on heavy ground. Last time out at Cheltenham was 3rd and has been dropped 2lb since for that run in a race at a shorter distance of 2m 5f, again on heavy. No concerns about distance or ground, has recent form and conditional jockey Michael Byrne claims 3 having ridden last time.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 WELSH NATIONAL - 15.20 CHEPSTOW Across The Bay - EW @ 25\1 StanJames BOG (4 Places) Top weight for this McCain horse who does hold an alternative entry at Sandown. Goes well on heavy ground but has never run this far before. Master Overseer - EW @ 14\1 PP BOG (4 Places) Real stayer and has won a listed and G3 handicap Chase. Has won on heavy. Lightly raced (10 chases for 5 wins and a 2nd) for a 10 year old and holds a big chance. FOOTNOTE Have backed Teaforthree ante-post at 7\1 win but will not include results in this thread.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 RESULTS 13.50 Sandown - Williams Wishes - WIN @ 5\4 PP BOG SP EVS WON + 1.25pt Won and jumped well apart from mistake at 2nd last. Recovered well and left the rest with a good driving finish. Maybe worth keeping an eye on. 14.05 Wincanton - Landscape - WIN @ 5\2 PP BOG SP 15\8 LOST -1pt 4th of 8 finishers (10 Ran). The winner Gevrey Chambertin totally outclassed all his rivals and jumped well throughout. Grand Crus full brother and looks just as good. Landscape ran well but no chance with winner and looks as if tired badly after trying to catch the winner. 15.00 Sandown - Softsong - WIN @ 6\1 Bet365 BOG SP 4\1 LOST -1pt 9th of 12. Ran well and in a good position 2 out but heavy ground meant tired badly after last to finish down the field. Still think will run a good race in a decent handicap hurdle but probably on slightly better ground. Winner very impressive, Lord Of The House winning by 10l. Depending on handicapper worth watching in similar races on similar ground. 15.15 Wincanton - Big Freeze - WIN @ 11\4 BET365 BOG SP 5\2 LOST -1pt 2nd of 3 finishers (5 Ran). Jumped well and always in with a chance but could never quite reel in the winner Sulpius. WELSH NATIONAL - 15.20 CHEPSTOW Across The Bay - EW @ 25\1 StanJames BOG (4 Places) SP 20\1 LOST -2pts 7th of 17. Ran well until 14th and then tailed off. Master Overseer - EW @ 14\1 PP BOG (4 Places) SP 14\1 LOST -2pts Pulled Up. Started well but at rear after 8 fences and tailed off before been pulled up after 14 of 18 fences. Fantastic ride from Paul Carberry to go from last to first on Monbeg Dude (10/1) who never jumped that well. Teaforthree was 2nd and stayed on well. Wins > 5 Bets > 15 P/L > -4.65pt

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 SUNDAY 6th JANUARY 13.25 Plumpton - Vulcanite - Win @ 4\5 PP BOG Won on chase debut at 2m at Hereford on soft. AP McCoy has the ride again and even with a 6lb penalty expect to confirm superiority over Salden Licht. More room for improvement as only a 6 years old compared to his rival who is 9. 15.30 Plumpton - Ballyman - Win @5\1 PP BOG Good course record and at this distance with 2 firsts, 2 seconds and a 2 thirds from 7 runs. Acts on the expected soft ground and is a safe jumper. Jockey Mark Grant has had last 7 rides so knows the horse well.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 RESULTS 13.25 Plumpton - Vulcanite - Win @ 4\5 PP BOG SP EVS LOST - 1pt Did not progress from chase debut and the winner Salden Licht made the most of receiving 6lb from the selection. Finished 5l behind for 3rd. Made one mistake and found nothing in the finish. 15.30 Plumpton - Ballyman - Win @5\1 PP BOG SP 10\1 LOST - 1pt 10l third. Should have backed each-way with the big drift in odds. With leader and challenged 3 out, unable to find extra from last. Wins > 5 Bets > 17 P/L > -6.65pt

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 RESULTS 14.30 Chepstow - ANAY TURGE - WIN @ 7\2 PP BOG SP 7\1 LOST -1pt Finished 5th of 7 runners. Raced out the back of the field and started to make progress when saddle slipped 2 out after a mistake. Eased after that. 13.00 Leicester - Todareistodo - WIN @ 7\2 PP BOG SP 15\2 LOST -1pt 7th of 7 finishers (9 ran). Held up in rear and hit 4th fence. Started to make some headway upto 3rd up with the main group but mistake 3 out ended all chances and faded badly. 14.10 Leicester - Wiesentraum - WIN @ 9\1 PP BOG SP 10\1 LOST -1pt 26 length 2nd to Same Difference who won very easy and could be worth watching. Wiesentraum was another 22 lengths clear of the third. Jumped well and will win another novice chase this season, just unlucky against a good performance by the winner who looks a good staying novice chaser. Wins > 5 Bets > 20 P/L > -9.65pt

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 EYECATCHERS AND ONES TO FOLLOW These are horses that have caught my eye to date and will be worth a close look when running next. CHASERS Buddy Bolero Theatrical Star Hawkes Point Desert Cry Tipsy Dara Roi Du Mee Williams Wishes Same Difference Wiesentraum Hurdlers Any Given Moment Gevrey Chambertin Lord Of The House

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 14.15 Doncaster - Overturn - NO BET - ODDS TO SHORT Expected to win this easy. Once over fences at Sandown when jumping really well 60 days ago and winning easy. Is a top class hurdler and now looks like been a top class chaser.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 RESULTS 14.15 Doncaster - Overturn - NO BET - SP 2\9 WON Jumped really well and easy winner as expected. One of the best novice chasers seen this season and Cheltenham bound. Depending on race and who turns up will be a live contender.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Edit

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Edit

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 FROM BBOTD THREAD - THURSDAY 10th JANUARY 14.15 Catterick - Lord Villez - EW @ 16\1 William Hill BOG Ferdy Murphy trained horse which ran over 4m on latest run at Kelso on soft in a class 2 handicap. Finished 4th that day 6 lengths behind the winner and while the form looks nothing special proves that he stays the distance. Running of 121 OR its lowest mark since March 2011 and Murphy has probably been running the horse to get his OR down. Has booked a good jockey in Denis O'Regan. Has a good record on soft ground over chases with 2 wins, 1 second and 1 third from 6 starts.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 RESULT 14.15 Catterick - Lord Villez - EW @ 16\1 William Hill BOG SP 25\1 LOST -2pt In rear, started to make headway 5 out but not much of a challenge and weakened 3 out to finish 7th of 10 finishers (14 ran) Wins > 5 Bets > 21 P/L > -11.65pt Not going to bet EW or in handicaps from now on as this is a major weakness in my betting.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 On analyzing bets and success so far, I will not be betting EW for the short-term future as this has cost me 4 points. Will be mainly concentrating on chases (handicaps and conditions) and conditions hurdles only. Handicap Chases will be small runner fields only (8 runners of less). Under these guidelines my record would have 14 bets, 5 winners Loss of -0.65pts. Think this course of action is the best way to go for the foreseeable future.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 FRIDAY 11th JANUARY 14.20 Huntingdon - Malt Master - WIN @ 5\4 PP BOG Class 3 Novice Chase on expected soft ground (8 Runners). Henderson and McCoy on a JP horse in what looks a weak novice chase. Malt Master disappointed on debut finishing second at Bangor over fences but expect I expect the horse to win today. Ground will be no issue and jumping should improve. Brass Tax is the danger but expect the 7lb it has to give to Malt Master enough to ensure the selection wins.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 RESULTS 14.20 Huntingdon - Malt Master - WIN @ 5\4 PP BOG SP 11\10 WIN + 1.25 PT Won, jumped left at times and was ridden to lead after 2nd last, edged right on run in but finished strongly. Do not think it is one of Hendersons better chasers but will probably improve with time. Wins > 6 Bets > 22 P/L > -10.40pt

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 SATURDAY 12th JANUARY 15.00 Warwick - The New One - WIN @ EVS BET365 BOG Grade 2 novice chase over 2m 5f on expected soft ground (7 runners) Very impressive to date with 2 hurdles wins out of 2 including at Cheltenham on last run. Ground and distance should be no issues and looks a really top class horse. Had excellent bumper form and has lost only one race from 6. This is a good price for a real quality horse. 15.15 Kempton - Handtheprizeover - Win @ 4\1 BET365 BOG Class 2 handicap chase on expected good to soft ground over 3 miles (9 runners) Has won 5 from 9 chases and is still improving only finishing outside first 3 once. Distance winner twice and ground should be no problems. Stepping up in grade but carry's bottom weight and should put in a really good performance. Has raced in rear and up front with success and is a solid jumper completing all chase runs to date. Trainers horses are running to form.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 15.35 Warwick - Betfred Classic Chase - Grade 3 Handicap Chase 3m 5f After long study have got this down to a shortlist of 4 but will only bet 3, all 1pt win. Pete The Feat -NO BET In excellent form and winner of last 5 chases but biggest test yet and stepping up in class. Ground ok but has never ran this far before and would need to improve quite considerably to win this. At 4\1 to short a price. Bradley - WIN @ 7\1 BET365 BOG Good jumper and good recent form at similar level. Has 4 wins and 4 seconds from 11 chases and will act on ground. Looks a proper stayer. Not won at this level yet but looks as if it will one day. My strongest fancy in the race and expect it to be placed. Major Malarkey - WIN @ 12\1 BET365 BOG Top jockey and trainer duo who both know how to win races like this. Real stayer and will go on ground. Was 4th last year and 5lb higher today but capable of carrying the weight on his back. Will be staying on at the end. Has some form at this level but not won higher than class 3. Flying Award - WIN @ 12\1 PP BOG Improving horse and bottom weight. Will stay and no issues with the ground and has won 3 of 5 chases. Upped in class but of all the horses that are open to improvement this looks to have the best chance at the prices. Trainer has booked Aidan Coleman for the ride and this could make a big difference as usually ridden by her daughter.

[Smarty72]

Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 RESULTS 15.00 Warwick - The New One - WIN @ EVS Bet365 BOG SP 1\2 WIN +1pt Won really easy with a good jumps performance. Cheltenham bound now. Will run a big race. 15.15 Kempton - Handtheprizeover - Win @ 4\1 Bet365 BOG SP 3\1 LOST -1pt Disappointing performance and pulled up. 15.35 Warwick - >Betfred Classic Chase - Grade 3 Handicap Chase 3m 5f Pete The Feat -NO BET SP 7\2 Third. Bradley - WIN @ 7\1 Bet365 BOG SP 11\2 LOST -1pt Pulled up Major Malarkey - WIN @ 12\1 Bet365 BOG SP 17\2 LOST -1pt 6th Flying Award - WIN @ 12\1 PP BOG SP 8\1 LOST -1pt Fourth Wins > 7 Bets > 27 P/L > -13.40pt Could not resist the big handicap of the day and cost me 3 points again. Need to be more disciplined with betting and stick to the rules I imposed yesterday.