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Jumps/Flat Bets

Smarty72

By Smarty72
in At The Races - Racing Forum

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Smarty72

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 WEDNESDAY 6th FEBRUARY 15.50 Ludlow - Grandioso - Win @ 9\4 Class 3 Handicap Chase 6yo chaser from the Paul Nicholl's yard which has run twice over fences winning a class 3 beginners chase at Wincanton over 2m 5f on soft then 2nd (10 lengths behind winner, no other finishers) also at Wincanton at the same distance on soft again. Nothing special about form from either race but Nicholl's is in good form recently 3 winners from last 4 runners. Will show improvement and can win this against opposition all with question marks against them.

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 THURSDAY 7th FEBRUARY 16.35 Doncaster - Sacre Toi - WIN @ 2/1 PP BOG Consistent jumper and performer at today's distance and class and a guaranteed finisher. Two wins, a second and a third (at a longer distance) this season. This is the right distance for this horse could still improve been only 7yo despite having 10 runs over fences in the UK and ground will be no issue. This looks a solid betting option in a race with question marks over all the other runners.

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 FRIDAY 7th FEBRUARY 14.15 Kempton - Kie -1pt WIN @ 5\2 PP BOG 2 chase runs to date and makes handicap debut over fences. Kie made mistakes jumping both times but is still improving and learning and should be better than OR allocated. Distance winner on debut on good ground at Musselburgh and 2nd here at Kempton on next run on good to soft (expected ground again). Henry Brooke has the ride for Donald McCain and was on board last time. Will be up the front or leading from the start as he has done in all previous starts. 16.10 Newcastle - Prince Tam - WIN @ 7\1 PP BOG With question marks over so many runners in the race, it may be worth siding with Prince Tam who has won 4 times (class 4 handicap chase twice and class 5 handicap Chase twice) at this distance here at Newcastle on ground varying from heavy to good. Last 4 races have been at Class 4 level and today's drop in grade to class 5 will suit. Usual jockey on board 5lb claimer Gary Rutherford who has won on board Prince Tam around here.

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 RESULTS 14.15 Kempton - Kie -1pt WIN @ 5\2 PP BOG 2nd SP 9\4 LOST -1pt 16.10 Newcastle - Prince Tam - WIN @ 7\1 PP BOG PU SP 9\2 LOST -1pt Wins > 15 Bets > 49 P/L > -12.73pt Jan > -11.23 Pts Feb > -1.5 Pts Feb Form - 5th-1st-5th-6th-4th-1st-2nd-1st-2nd-1st-3rd-2nd-PU

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Reasoning for bets Champagne Fever (9/4 still available) - Disappointing run last time but found to have a problem after the race. Prior to that was only 1.5 lengths behind Jezki. If back to fitness expect a good run and worth a bet at the prices. Has been closer to Jezki than any others in this race. Boston Bob (5\4 PP Available) - Won novice chase on debut over fences and expected to go on from that and prove class before targeting one of the novice chases at Cheltenham. Will be no issues with distance and the better ground should see an improvement in jumping. Sir Des Champ (11\8 generally available) - Not confident about this and on reflection to many question marks. Bet has been struck so will stand but Flemenstar the big danger and Bog Warrior is a lively outsider back over fences. Silviniaco Conti (8\11 best price available now) - Two very impressive chase runs this season beating Long Run last time who went on to win the King George. Looks a chaser of top class and none of the others look of the same class. Distance and ground will be no issue. This is the top ride of Ruby Walsh for the day. Unioniste (4\5 with Bet365) - Really impressive win in a Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham and step up in distance today to 3m will suit. Going to be a top class staying chaser. Has won 3 of his 4 chases and will be better than any of the others in the race.

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 RESULTS 14.15 Leopardstown - Champagne Fever - WIN @ 9/4 StanJames BOG 1st SP 2\1 WON + 2.25 Pts 14.45 Leopardstown - Boston Bob - WIN @ EVS Bet365 BOG 1st SP 6\4 WON + 1.5 Pts 15.20 Leopardstown - Sir Des Champs - WIN @ 11\8 PP BOG 1st SP 11\8 WON + 1.38 Pts 14.25 Newbury - Silviniaco Conti - WIN @ 4\6 PP BOG 1st SP 8\11 WON + 0.73 Pts 16.10 Newbury - Unioniste - WIN @ 8\11 PP BOG 1st SP 4\5 WON + 0.8 Pts 14.40 Warwick - Fago - WIN @ 5\6 PP BOG FELL SP 11\10 LOST - 1pts Wins > 20 Bets > 55 P/L > -7.07pt Jan > -11.23 Pts Feb > +4.16 Pts Feb Form - 5th-1st-5th-6th-4th-1st-2nd-1st-2nd-1st-3rd-2nd-PU-1st-1st-1st-1st-1st-F

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Sunday 10th February 14.30 Exeter - Melodic Rendezvous - Win @ 11\8 PP BOG Grade 1 winner of the Tolworth at Sandown LTO and looked impressive that day. Made hurdles debut here at Exeter when second to Mr Mole who hampered Melodic Rendezvous by the last fence when about to challenge. Then went to Cheltenham and won a class 3 novice before going to Sandown for the Tolworth hurdle. All these courses have tough finishes and this horse will be first past the post. Puffin Billy the current favourite although impressive to date has raced on flat tracks at Ascot and Newbury and will find this a much tougher test and is worth opposing. 15.00 Exeter - Harry Topper - Win @ 6\4 PP BOG Harry Topper has won both chases to date jumping really well, here on debut over todays distance then following up at Newbury in a Grade 2 Novice chase over 3m. Looks a really good staying chaser and is open to a lot of improvement and will be Cheltenham bound in the National Hunt Chase (14/1 PP available).

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013

Going to impose a number of rules to narrow down races studied and potential bets. Win Only (1pt) All races - Max 8 runner - Exception to this rule Listed races or above (Max 10 Runners - May reduce this)
In addition to this class 3 races or above only. Keeping records has allowed me to review previous bets and find weaknesses in my betting. On these betting guidelines my record would stand at 34 bets to date, 19 wins (55% SR) and profit of 16.18 Pts to 1pt level stakes. All previous bets will count but future bets must meet these guidelines and hopefully can continue to claw back January's losses.
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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 RESULTS 14.30 Exeter - Melodic Rendezvous - Win @ 11\8 PP BOG 1st SP 5\4 WON + 1.38 Pts 15.00 Exeter - Harry Topper - Win @ 6\4 PP BOG 1st SP 5\4 WON + 1.42 Pts (R4 - 5p) Wins > 22 Bets > 59 P/L > -4.27pt Jan > -11.23 Pts Feb > +6.96 Pts Feb Form - 5th-1st-5th-6th-4th-1st-2nd-1st-2nd-1st-3rd-2nd-PU-1st-1st-1st-1st-1st-F-1st-1st

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 13.40 Musselburgh - Peddlers Cross - Win @ 1/6 PP BOG Obvious selection in this 4 runner race. Poor odds but an absolute banker of a bet. Had a warm up spin in a jumpers bumper finishing 2nd so fitness will be spot on. High class hurdler finishing 2nd to Hurricane Fly in the champion hurdle in 2011 before trying chasing with limited success and did not hit the peaks of his hurdling career. Expect the World Hurdle to be the announced target after a comfortable win here.

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Thursday 14th February 15.30 Leicester - Grandioso - Win @ 4\6 PP BOG 3 chases to date all on soft ground. Won on debut chase at Wincanton over 2m 5f before coming 2nd (only 2 finishers) at the same course over the same distance. Last time was at Ludlow over 2m 4f when a very easy winner and did not have a hard race. Has jumped well all 3 times and been staying on at the end of the races so the extra distance should be no issue. Carry's top weight but 3lb well in as due to go up to 142 OR. Paul Nicholls would not be running if he felt this horse could not won and this looks a good opportunity for another win.

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Friday 15th February 14.25 Sandown - She Ranks Me - Win @ 4\1 Bet365 BOG She Ranks Me already has won 2 listed novice hurdles with the latest at Haydock over the same distance as this race at Sandown. Heavy ground that day so will have no problems with the expected heavy ground again today. Was staying on well at the end that day and won easily so hopefully the long uphill finish here at Sandown will prove no problem. Her first listed win was at Newbury when winning on soft ground by a neck from Ma Filleule over a distance of 2m half a furlong. Ma Filleule has since won a Grade 2 mares hurdle at Warwick. Currently third favourite behind a Mullins and Henderson runner who while both highly regarded are worth opposing with this Mare who ticks all the boxes for me.

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Saturday 16th February 14.05 Ascot - Rocky Creek - Win @ 10\11 PP BOG Wiining form and jumps really well. 2nd on debut chase to the smart Harry Topper who at Exeter last Sunday and won next 2 chases over similar distances to this race. Clearly on the upgrade and looks a Top class Paul Nicholls chaser 15.10 Gowran Park - Zaidpour - Win @ 4\5 PP BOG Backed last time and fancy it to win today. Has 2 grade 1 win's in the book and 3 grade 2 wins. Ground should be no issue having won on heavy. 16.05 Haydock - Ohio Gold - Win @ 5\2 PP BOG 2 chase runs to date finishing 2nd both times. Has looked to be staying on well over shorter distances and this step up in trip should suit. On debut run over fences finished 2nd to Majala (now rated 152) and then 2nd to Fargo (now rated 154). Looks to have a good opening handicap mark at 134 and is probably better than this.

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Results - Saturday 16th February 14.05 Ascot - Rocky Creek - Win @ 10\11 PP BOG 1st SP 8\13 WON + 0.91 Pts 15.10 Gowran Park - Zaidpour - Win @ 4\5 PP BOG 2nd SP 4\6 LOST - 1 Pts 16.05 Haydock - Ohio Gold - Win @ 5\2 PP BOG 2nd SP 15\8 LOST - 1pts Wins > 24 Bets > 64 P/L > -6.16pt Jan > -11.23 Pts Feb > +5.07 Pts Feb Form - 5th-1st-5th-6th-4th-1st-2nd-1st-2nd-1st-3rd-2nd-PU-1st-1st-1st-1st-1st-F-1st-1st-1st-2nd-1st-2nd-2nd

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Sunday 17th February 16.00 Market Rasen - Fourjacks - Win @ Evs PP BOG Two chase runs to date both at Wetherby winning on debut over 2m 4.5 f on soft ground. Followed up over with a respectable fourth in a grade 2 novice chase over 3m 1f on soft ground again. Today's distance of 2m 6.5f should be no problem on expected soft ground. Evens a good price in a 4 runner novice chase, with the 2nd favorite making chase debut and the other 2 needing to put in a big improvement to win

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 RESULT 16.00 Market Rasen - Fourjacks - Win @ Evs PP BOG 1st 10\11 WON + 1pt Wins > 25 Bets > 65 P/L > -5.16pt Jan > -11.23 Pts Feb > +6.07 Pts Feb Form - 5th-1st-5th-6th-4th-1st-2nd-1st-2nd-1st-3rd-2nd-PU-1st-1st-1st-1st-1st-F-1st-1st-1st-2nd-1st-2nd-2nd-1st

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Tuesday 19th February 16.20 Navan - Tofino Bay - Win @ 4\6 Bet365 BOG Has run in 5 chases to date with 3 wins, a 2nd and a 4th in grade 1. Has won the Troytown Handicap Grade B handicap at this course over a distance of 3m the same as this race which was also on heavy. Good form at this level and distance and is the clear top rated by the handicapper. Good price for the class horse in the race with proven form in this 4 runner race.

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Re: Smarty72 - Jumps Betting Thread - 2013 Thursday 21st February 15.30 Huntingdon - Easter Day - Win @ 8\13 Bet365 BOG Looks different class to the other runners in this race. 2nd last time out in grade 1 novice hurdle at Newbury on heavy ground. 3 runs in total over hurdles with 2 wins. Ground and distance will be no problem and Paul Nicholls has his horses in good form at the moment. 16.20 Ayr - The Tracey Shuffle - Win @ 6\4 Bet365 BOG Tom Scudamore and David Pipe make the long journey from somerset with this horse who is returning to hurdling after been novice chasing. Has had 4 hurdles races with a win, 2nd and 3rd. Last time hurdling was 12th in a class 2 handicap hurdle over 3m clearly to far and best to ignore that run. Has won over this course over half a mile further but the minimum trip of this race should be no issue and the expected soft ground will pose no problems. Still could be improving and should have no problems with top weight against a poor looking field of runners.

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