Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February

[Aidymac]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=class: firstColumn]Celtic v Juventus (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.33[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.74 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[HastGill1]

Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February Celtic v Juventus A pretty straightforward bet this for me, I don't see Celtic losing. Slightly surprised to see Celtics double chance odds over evens, was expecting it to be nearer 1.85, while Juve are obviously a better side I don't expect the tie to be decided in the first leg, if either side wins it will likely to be by only one goal, banking on the usual strong home performance to see Celtic get a draw at least. Celtic's home record in Europe is pretty outstanding as we all know, this is a more limited side on paper than some of those teams before it but they have quality and will put their bodies on the line to get a result, you don't beat Barcelona by pure luck and they have more quality players than people give them credit for. The only doubt for Celtic is Samaras, depending on his availability expect to see them line up 4-5-1 with Forrest or Commons providing Hooper with the main support if Samaras doesn't make it, the 4-5-1 becoming a 4-3-3 when they attack. Samaras is probably Celtic's possible match winner for me, excellent in the air but can also carry the ball and relieve pressure on the defence, think they will give him every chance of making the side. Celtic were able to rest their players at the weekend with the league virtually sewn up. Juventus will be at full strength, the midfield trio of Vidal, Pirlo and Marchisio will be an interesting match up against Brown, Wanyama and Ledley, the Juve defence and midfield certainly looks very strong and it will certainly be tough for Celtic to break through, even the normal route of set pieces doesn't look too easy against a very tight Juve back 3 who are strong in the air. I see quite a low scoring game and Celtics first target will be getting through the first half hour unscathed and will become more confident as the game goes on. I'm sure there will be plenty of near misses as the quality is on Juve's side and Celtic won't be able to keep possession as well, but I think they can keep the Italians at bay and they usually score at home in Europe even against top sides, although I don't expect them to go through I think the atmosphere and unique atmosphere within Celtic Park will see them get a draw at least. The crowd are probably the best in Europe in CL home games and it does make a difference to the game imo. Celtic +0.5AH - 2.1 - pinnacle - 3 Points Draw - 3.65 - betinternet - 1 Point

[Mustafa]

Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February I don't understand why you Juventus are such a strong favorites in this game. Just a bit of statistics taken from uefa.com :

• Celtic have not lost in eight games against Serie A opponents at Celtic Park since their first visitors from Italy, AC Milan, prevailed 1-0 in a European Cup quarter-final on 12 March 1969, winning by the same aggregate score.
• In last season's UEFA Europa League group stage, Celtic drew 1-1 home and away against Udinese Calcio.
• Celtic's 19 games against Italian sides have ended W5 D7 L7 (W4 D4 L1 in Glasgow).

Last time these two sides met was more than a decade ago and 2 games between them produced 12 goals, with Juventus winning 3-2 in Turin and Celtic 4-3 in Glasgow. I think we will see something similar and can see each side scoring at least 1 goal here. I am personally leaning towards 1-1 draw. Both to Score @ 2.05 William Hill

[stiba]

Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February Mustafa, where are you looking at these statistics?

[Mustafa]

Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February

Mustafa' date=' where are you looking at these statistics?[/quote'] From uefa.com

[BrianSmp]

Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February Celtic's good home form is a bit of a myth, as is their dreadful away form. They have had an almost unbelievable run of good luck at home (last minute goals, teams missing penalties, getting battered form stat to finish, but holding on). Also, they have had similar bad luck away from home. It must be remembered that looking back 3, 4, 5, 10+ years is pretty pointless as their whole set up has changed. Juventus will be too strong for them, I'll be backing an away win at 17/20 with Bet 365.

[Aidymac]

Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February

Celtic's good home form is a bit of a myth, as is their dreadful away form. They have had an almost unbelievable run of good luck at home (last minute goals, teams missing penalties, getting battered form stat to finish, but holding on). Also, they have had similar bad luck away from home. It must be remembered that looking back 3, 4, 5, 10+ years is pretty pointless as their whole set up has changed. Juventus will be too strong for them, I'll be backing an away win at 17/20 with Bet 365.

Barcelona weren't able to beat them, or even get a draw at Celtic, for that matter. Celtic have lost only 5 of their 34 home matches in all stages of the champions league, 3 of those against Arsenal and Barcelona twice. That price on Juventus has to be the most disgraceful price I have ever seen, I thought they would have been at least 6/4.

[wellarmy]

Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February Celtic v Juventus Juventus 10/11 stanjames I strongly fancy the Italians to defeat Celtic at Parkhead tomorrow night. It was a great achievement for Celtic to get out of their group but I feel they rode their luck in qualifying to the next stage. Against Benfica at home they barely mustered a shot on target and set up not to lose rather than go for victory, looking out of their depth in the process. They did extremely well in both games against , but if it wasn't for Fraser Forster Barca would of won both games at ease. He has just come back from injury on Saturday and looked far from convincing at Inverness Moscow came against 10 men and the return game in was meaningless for Spartak.

[Kosher Readies]

Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February

Celtic's good home form is a bit of a myth' date=' as is their dreadful away form. They have had an almost unbelievable run of good luck at home (last minute goals, teams missing penalties, getting battered form stat to finish, but holding on).[/quote'] :lol:lol

[Jase82]

Guys could we keep things civil here :ok anything that gets too heated or personal regarding Celtic will just be removed ... Keep it about value, and remain objective :)

[ultravires]

Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February I'm of the opinion that Juventus are too short in this one. I don't imagine Celtic will cause them masses of problems in this, but that will be down to their own approach as well as the home sides ability. A roaring atmosphere and pace/physicality is enough to ruffle a few feathers so I think Juventus will take a smart approach to this match. They have a superbly balanced midfield and excellent full-backs which will allow them to largely control the match. My main issue with their current price is that they don't have bankable forwards. Vucinic is a great player but he cannot be relied upon. Giovinco and Matri, for different reasons, are not good enough for this elite level. Quagliarella is the best finisher from the bunch but Conte just doesn't like playing him for some reason. It's a toss up as to who partners Vucinic, but as a team they don't convert enough chances to warrant a sub evens price in a match of this kind. I do my best to avoid watching Celtic when I can so I don't know their intricacies, but I have age old impressions of how they play etc. My play on this match will be under 2.5. Juve are a very physically able side and I think they will ably handle Celtic, while not being able to craft too many clear cut chances. I imagine Celtic are able to put up some defensive strength with bodies alone. My feeling regarding Celtic+0.5 or Juve win would depend on who plays in LCB, LWB and CF for Juve. My preferred LCB is Caceres, while Asamoah is so impressive and safe at LWB that he alone would cover the recent defensive weakness down that side of the pitch. I'd view Juve's attacking strength at its best with Quagliarella, then Matri, then Giovinco. Even at their best XI I'd be hard pressed to find value in the away win, but certain selection choices would make Celtic+0.5 serious value. I feel that Juve would take a draw but be hopeful of a narrow win, while Celtic will want a win, but know that an away goal for Juve would go a long way to ending their chances of qualification. Under 2.5 goals - 1.700 - 6 points CS - 0-0 - 9.00 - 0.5 points 1-0 Juventus - 6.00 - 0.5 points All Bet365

[HastGill1]

Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February You do wonder how far Juventus could go if they got a world class striker in, I know Llorente has agreed to go there in the summer but it does appear to be the one weakness of the side.. I don't think Celtic will struggle too much against the pace of Juve in wide areas as they have some pacey players too, although it might be a route both sides have to go as I can see the centre of the park being very congested with both playing three in there. The unders seems a sensible shout, historically (looking at the results over the last 3 seasons) 58% of the first leg ties go under compared with 25% in the second leg at this stage, and this would certainly be a game that looks unlikely to have a lot of goals. Regardless of player selection I think Juve are just too short, others might disagree but I would want 2.2-2.3 to back them here.

[kevshat]

Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February 4pts Under 2.5 goals 8/11 BetVictor As with a lot of first legs in European competition I expect this to be quite tight. The days of having to take a lead away from home in the European game have gone now I feel with the away goals rule. If Celtic were given a 0-0 now I am sure they would take it so that away goals in the second leg really count. Juventus would fancy their chances of beating anyone at home so both sides may be fairly cautious in this game and so because of that I don’t expect to see many goals in this game. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/celtic-vs-juventus-betting-goals-unlikely-to-be-in-huge-supply-in-first-leg-of-last-16-tie

[TotoSchillaci]

Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February Hey Ultravires Conte stated recently that it would be silly to throw Asamoah straight in after he's been away for a month at ACON. He might throw Anelka in though...but I agree with your take on the striker situation. They're currently above evens to beat a hapless Roma on the weekend and it seems to me much more logical to wait and profit off that in some way. If this were a one leg knock out game i'd back Juve but I know that 1-1 here is the same as qualifying for them plus the price is woeful. Key is they don't NEED to win. No bet

[ultravires]

Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February I am hoping that De Ceglie's injury concerns force Conte's hand regarding Asamoah. It would be ideal to rest him, but he does make such a difference down that left side. I guess we'll see tomorrow, as I'm unsure what the situation with De Ceglie is. I thought the same thing myself, anyone backing Juve tomorrow should be compelled to do the same against Roma at the weekend.

[McNasara]

Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February possible lineups home team> Forster, Matthews, Lustig, Wilson, Izaguirre (80% fit), Brown, Wanyama, Mulgrew, Samaras (85% fit), Hooper, Forrest away team> Buffon, Barzagli, Bonucci, Caceres, Lichtsteiner, Vidal, Pirlo, Marchisio, Peluso, Vučinić, Matri Defender Ambrose start on the bench for the Bhoys, while Juve will be without injured defenders Chiellini and De Ceglie, Asamoah (midfielder) start on the bench.

[BrianSmp]

Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February

Barcelona weren't able to beat them, or even get a draw at Celtic, for that matter. Celtic have lost only 5 of their 34 home matches in all stages of the champions league, 3 of those against Arsenal and Barcelona twice. That price on Juventus has to be the most disgraceful price I have ever seen, I thought they would have been at least 6/4.

I don't think what happened 34 games ago with much stronger Celtic team's in this competition has much, if any, bearing on tonight's result.

[Jase82]

I don't think what happened 34 games ago with much stronger Celtic team's in this competition has much' date=' if any, bearing on tonight's result.[/quote'] Yeah but Celtic would arguable still have had a weaker squad during that period, than most top European sides, so the fact they've lost so few in 34 home games goes some way to demonstrate their continued strength over a long period of time. They've certainly turned me around to their way!

[ultravires]

Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February News of the positions up for grabs is currently saying Caceres (LCB), Peluso (LWB) and Matri (CF).

[Aidymac]

Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February

I don't think what happened 34 games ago with much stronger Celtic team's in this competition has much' date=' if any, bearing on tonight's result.[/quote'] Celtic's home form in this competition over donkey's years does have a bearing on tonight's match though, as does possibly the loudest set of home fans on the planet. Not saying Juve won't win, but I am saying Juve are a terrible price.

[BrianSmp]

Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February

Yeah but Celtic would arguable still have had a weaker squad during that period' date=' than most top European sides, so the fact they've lost so few in 34 home games goes some way to demonstrate their continued strength over a long period of time. They've certainly turned me around to their way![/quote'] Yes, it is true that they had a weaker squad than the European giants, but the gulf in class was much lesser IMO. Those squads included players like Larsson, Sutton, Hartson, Petrov etc.

[Aidymac]

Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February

Yes, it is true that they had a weaker squad than the European giants, but the gulf in class was much lesser IMO. Those squads included players like Larsson, Sutton, Hartson, Petrov etc. OK, we'll just have to agree to disagree there. The same goes for these stats where a certain team A haven't won away at a certain team B for (eg) 15 years. When you look back 5 or 10 years it could be 22 completely different men on the field with 2 different managers - I don't think the previous matches have any impact on the current one. There will be a brilliant atmosphere tonight in Glasgow, but it won't be any louder than what these Juventus players have played in before, and not any louder than the likes of Galatasaray, Real Madrid and the Germans. And yes of course, even if Juventus were to win 3 or 4-0 tonight, it wouldn't give me the right to come back and say that you are wrong with your opinion on if they were a good value bet or not. Anything can happen in a one off match. We can't be short-term-results driven.

Well if you don't want to judge them over a long period of time, let's judge Celtic on this current campaign. 4 wins and 1 draw from 5 home games, beating Barcelona along the way, conceding only 3 goals. Juve couldn't beat the Danish side in the group stages away from home, and beat Shakhtar in a game that meant nothing to the home side. Also, only 5 wins in their last 19 away champions league games leaves a lot to be desired, in my opinion. I, for one, hope Juventus win tonight, because they are a bigger club with bigger players, and want to see the best sides go through as a neutral here, but I just think Juve are a terrible price considering how hard Celtic are to beat. You also, in Celtic's case, have to leave the player quality aside where Celtic are concerned. Yes, they have to Larsson etc etc like the old days, but one thing Celtic have is passion and a will to win. I am sure you would have given them no chance whatsoever against Barcelona if you think Juve are certs tonight? Celtic are a team I would really struggle to back against when they play at home.

[VanGo]

Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February I also think that the Juve's price represent no value.For sure the value lies on Celtic and IMO everybody who watch occasionally matches in CL have noticed that Juve simply cannot score goals.Yes they create chances but they can not score easily. Given the facts that Celtic are tough nut to crack these days and the collective they are I see a low scoring game with Juve attacking and Celtic defending with no panic ,good counter attacks ,set pieces they can really harm Juventus ,also the home factor will be crucial.So +0.5 +1 AH for Celtic or under 2.5 goal line ,but Juve are not value here IMO.

[HastGill1]

Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February It will certainly be louder than any ground in Spain or Germany, but that is nit picking and as Buffon said he has played in front of the most hostile of all fans in Turkey and has not yet known a fan to score a goal! Looking back at past matches always creates a bit of debate, in this instance it has some relevance as it shows Celtic have continually been hard to beat over a long period of time in the CL. If they had lost 4 of those 5 games in the last 10 games then the stat would be misleading but that isn't the case, regardless of how many players and managers they have gone through they consistently get results, don't think there can be too much debate about that. They can certainly arrange a defensive rearguard as well as anyone, how many sides come within a minute of getting a draw in the Nou Camp? That was a staggering performance and shows they will be up for the big games, the Scottish league is so easy for them they could have fielded a youth team until Christmas and would still have won it.

[rcarlosno1]

Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February Massive overreaction to the Celtic Barcelona matches here. At the end of the day, Barcelona went off 1/4 at Celtic Park - Juventus, who are top class despite not quite being Barcelona, are 1.85, and this is a more important match. Celtic's home record in the Champions League rarely involves playing at home to a top team who needs to win, as they usually play in the group stage. The obvious point is to say that Juventus are too short based on Celtic's home Champions league record, but only a small part of this record is relevant today. I think there could be a huge class gap here, with there being too much consideration of the Barcelona matches. Let me say this one more time - despite Barcelona getting beat (anything can happen in an individual match), they went off 1/4 at Celtic Park. I would suggest Juventus are slightly too big at 1.85.

[Aidymac]

Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February

Massive overreaction to the Celtic Barcelona matches here. At the end of the day, Barcelona went off 1/4 at Celtic Park - Juventus, who are top class despite not quite being Barcelona, are 1.85, and this is a more important match. Celtic's home record in the Champions League rarely involves playing at home to a top team who needs to win, as they usually play in the group stage. The obvious point is to say that Juventus are too short based on Celtic's home Champions league record, but only a small part of this record is relevant today. I think there could be a huge class gap here, with there being too much consideration of the Barcelona matches. Let me say this one more time - despite Barcelona getting beat (anything can happen in an individual match), they went off 1/4 at Celtic Park. I would suggest Juventus are slightly too big at 1.85.

Barcelona were massively under-priced at Celtic Park. 1/4 after Celtic nearly did them at the Nou Camp, was a shocking price. Just because Barca went off 1/4 at Celtic, does not mean Juve are value at 1.85 tonight. Firstly, because Barcelona are a far better side than Juve. Secondly, Barca were drastically underpriced in that game away to Celtic.

[rcarlosno1]

Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February

Barcelona were massively under-priced at Celtic Park. 1/4 after Celtic nearly did them at the Nou Camp, was a shocking price. Just because Barca went off 1/4 at Celtic, does not mean Juve are value at 1.85 tonight. Firstly, because Barcelona are a far better side than Juve. Secondly, Barca were drastically underpriced in that game away to Celtic.

You're not a Celtic fan are you Aidymac?? Maybe Barcelona were too short at 1/4 - but it's a very long way from 1/4 to 1.85. -2AH to -0.5AH, it's a massive difference. I think there is a huge element of hinsight with the view that Barcelona were a "shocking price" at 1/4 etc - baring in mind you now know the result! If it was that "shocking", I'm sure a betting syndicate would have at least steered it nearer to the correct price - despite what most people think the price doesn't come from a bookmaker's head and stay there.

[rcarlosno1]

Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February

Yes, it is true that they had a weaker squad than the European giants, but the gulf in class was much lesser IMO. Those squads included players like Larsson, Sutton, Hartson, Petrov etc. OK, we'll just have to agree to disagree there. The same goes for these stats where a certain team A haven't won away at a certain team B for (eg) 15 years. When you look back 5 or 10 years it could be 22 completely different men on the field with 2 different managers - I don't think the previous matches have any impact on the current one. There will be a brilliant atmosphere tonight in Glasgow, but it won't be any louder than what these Juventus players have played in before, and not any louder than the likes of Galatasaray, Real Madrid and the Germans. And yes of course, even if Juventus were to win 3 or 4-0 tonight, it wouldn't give me the right to come back and say that you are wrong with your opinion on if they were a good value bet or not. Anything can happen in a one off match. We can't be short-term-results driven.

Some good logic here, nice post.

[rcarlosno1]

Re: Last 16 > Celtic v Juventus > Tue 12th February

Well if you don't want to judge them over a long period of time, let's judge Celtic on this current campaign. 4 wins and 1 draw from 5 home games You also, in Celtic's case, have to leave the player quality aside where Celtic are concerned.

Let me get this straight - rather than judge them using an irrelevant sample from years ago, involving a completely different team of players, let's instead judge them on a tiny sample of 5 matches? Come on guys think about what we're saying here. For the second point - did you actually say "leave the player quality aside where Celtic are concerned". I'm sorry but this is just wrong, think about what you're saying - yes they may be spurred on by a fervent crowd - but you seriously think player quality isn't the most important factor??? Sorry if I sound like I'm biting a bit here, but there needs to be a counter argument to some of the ones that are being made using illogical reasoning.

[Jase82]

Celtic are touching 5 now on Betfair, which is a crazy price IMO. The best strategy would be to back it, and lay it off in play as I think it'll be much much lower at some point in the game. It's certainly feasible that Celtic could catch Juventus out in the first half, or hold them for long periods. Either way after weighing things up Celtic has to be the value here ... Reasons are mainly to summarise, 1. Their record at home in Europe, 2. Recent results / performances in European competition, 3. The fact this is a two legged affair means Juventus can get away with a point really, 4. I wouldn't give anyone a larger than 50% chance of winning here, 5. Juventus have a mediocre away record over the recent past in European competition, 6. I believe, as is often the case, that the price on these sort of sides is often led by a big name team. All of this means Juventus seem to be slightly underpriced at the minute.