NFL: Week 11 picks

[Samba_SamPa]

Ravens (-3) 3pts @ Evens Bet365 News that Roethlisberger is definitely out of the clash with Ravens, whilst Mendenhall is still striving to prove his fitness, has led me to take an early bet on the Ravens covering a current 3pt handicap. I'm pretty sure the line will increase before Sunday. Leftwich's last start was in September 09 so expecting him to slot straight into what is a fierce rivalry is asking a lot. Baltimore won at Heinz last year, and, in fact, have won 11 straight games against the other AFC North teams. They also come into the game off an absolute shellacking of Oakland at the weekend, whilst the Steelers huffed and puffed their way to an OT win against the 1-8 Chiefs.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL: Week 11 picks Price had dropped to 10/11 between starting to write earlier and then going to put the bet on just there, so a quick look around and I am changing the details to: Ravens (-3) 3pts @ 2.05 Ladbrokes

[kevshat]

Re: NFL: Week 11 picks 4pts Miami to beat Buffalo 6/5 Ladbrokes The Dolphins go up against the worst run defence in the NFL here so the likes of Reggie Bush should enjoy this game. Miami aren’t the best in passing defence but a lot of the Buffalo offense is performed on the ground and it isn’t easy to run on this Miami defence regardless of the fact Fred Jackson is injured. With Bush likely to have a field day on the ground meaning the ball won’t be in Tannehill’s control as much I think the Fins can get the job done here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/miami--buffalo-betting-miami-can-get-back-on-track-with-a-win-against-their-afc-east-rivals

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL: Week 11 picks Buffalo - Miami over 47.5 @ 2.10 sportsbet Buffalo - Miami over 55.5 @ 4.00 sportsbet Like this to be a high scoring game with pretty ordinary defences that have been thrown and run on while expect their QBs to step up here against these pretty average secondary's. Buffalo will look to QB Fitzpatrick who has thrown 9 TDs in his three home starts (as well as 5 INTs woth 4 of these coming against NE). He has also thrown for 9 TDs in three divisional games (as well as 8 INTs) so has been inconsistent with the game on the line. However this Miami pass defence has given up 8 passing TDs in its five away games and believe Fitzpatrick can carry on from his good performance against the Patriots with this inferior defence. Their run game has been dealt a blow without Jackson, but Spiller has been a very good replacement, and with Miami rush defence giving up 162, 105, 97 and 177 rushing yards in its last four games, then they too can give up yards and points on the ground. Miami will look to QB Tannehill to make up for their poor game against Tennessee as this Buffalo pass defence has given up 18 passing TDs so far with just 6 INTs (and none in their last 3 games). Even worse is their rush defence as it has given up 117+ rushing yards in 8 of its 9 games (average of 164 rushing yards per game) and though Miami have only twice rushed for more than 100 yards, they look likely to do so here. Both sides need a win to stay in touch with New England, and with neither defence showing enough resolve, then expect both offences to come out on top here. Also both sides have their share of injuries, especially on the defensive side which should allow these defences to do well. Record: 23-46 (-5.67)

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NFL: Week 11 picks CJ Spiller Over 78.5 Rushing Yards @ 2.20 Bet365 I've got to disagree with anyone who describes Jackson as a loss. Spiller is a much more dynamic player who averages 7.3ypc this year and in games without Jackson in the team he's beaten this line 5/8 times, and one of those failures was when he got injured. For me this price should be for the under, not the over. Spiller is capable of achieving this total on one play, and so long as he gets 15 carries I think he'll get there.

[Dzontra85]

Re: NFL: Week 11 picks

Buffalo - Miami over 47.5 @ 2.10 sportsbet Buffalo - Miami over 55.5 @ 4.00 sportsbet Like this to be a high scoring game with pretty ordinary defences that have been thrown and run on while expect their QBs to step up here against these pretty average secondary's. Buffalo will look to QB Fitzpatrick who has thrown 9 TDs in his three home starts (as well as 5 INTs woth 4 of these coming against NE). He has also thrown for 9 TDs in three divisional games (as well as 8 INTs) so has been inconsistent with the game on the line. However this Miami pass defence has given up 8 passing TDs in its five away games and believe Fitzpatrick can carry on from his good performance against the Patriots with this inferior defence. Their run game has been dealt a blow without Jackson, but Spiller has been a very good replacement, and with Miami rush defence giving up 162, 105, 97 and 177 rushing yards in its last four games, then they too can give up yards and points on the ground. Miami will look to QB Tannehill to make up for their poor game against Tennessee as this Buffalo pass defence has given up 18 passing TDs so far with just 6 INTs (and none in their last 3 games). Even worse is their rush defence as it has given up 117+ rushing yards in 8 of its 9 games (average of 164 rushing yards per game) and though Miami have only twice rushed for more than 100 yards, they look likely to do so here. Both sides need a win to stay in touch with New England, and with neither defence showing enough resolve, then expect both offences to come out on top here. Also both sides have their share of injuries, especially on the defensive side which should allow these defences to do well. Record: 23-46 (-5.67)

Not even close.....Miami is dissaster team they need better QB

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NFL: Week 11 picks James Jones Over 52.5 Receiving Yards 1.83 Bet365 Jones has bested this line in 6/9 games this year and with Jennings again absent I see no reasons why he shouldn't be able to achieve this total again. The Packers play the Lions and this game has shootout potential; Stafford and particularly Rodgers are elite QB's, both defences are bad -- Lions is worse but with no Clay Matthews there's nothing much to fear about GB's pass rush, so I expect both QB's to be throwing the ball a lot and think that a mere 53 yards is more than achievable for Jones.

[kevshat]

Re: NFL: Week 11 picks Sunday TV game previews: 4pts Detroit (+3.5) to beat Green Bay 5/6 Coral I think Detroit have every chance here because without the likes of Clay Matthews the Packers pass rush isn’t anywhere near as potent so when Stafford has time in the pocket he can pick out the likes of Calvin Johnson with regularity to get the Lions down the field. Of course they will need to make plays defensively which they can do. If they can hold their nerve I definitely see them winning but given that is questionable I’ll play safe and take them on the handicap. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/green-bay--detroit-betting-detroit-can-exploit-green-bay-s-injuries-in-the-early-game-on-sunday 4pts Indianapolis (+9.5) to beat New England 10/11 Blue Square I would expect the Patriots to go on and win this match with home advantage but they haven’t won too many games this season with a bit to spare and I don’t see them doing that here either. Indianapolis have become hard to score on and Andrew Luck and his offense are balanced enough to keep the Patriot defence guessing. Indianapolis are getting a 9.5pt head start with the bookmakers here and that looks a shade too big to me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/indianapolis--new-england-betting-andrew-luck-can-keep-the-colts-close-at-gillette-stadium 4pts Pittsburgh vs Baltimore - Under 40pts Evs Betfred When I heard Ben Roethlisberger was out for this match I instantly thought about backing the Ravens here but they are a totally different team on the road to the one which plays at home so I think the safer option is to take under 40pts. Pittsburgh could well struggle to get anything going on offense with Byron Leftwich at the helm while Flacco tends to struggle on the road. Pittsburgh’s defence is the best in the league and with them hopefully continuing to dominate and Leftwich struggling the match should struggle to see 40pts. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/baltimore--pittsburgh-betting-afc-north-rivalry-battle-can-be-a-low-scoring-one-at-heinz-field

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL: Week 11 picks

Buffalo - Miami over 47.5 @ 2.10 :( Buffalo - Miami over 55.5 @ 4.00 :(

Atlanta -17.5 @ 3.14 sportsbet Atlanta should bounce back after their loss to New Orleans last week, and like QB Ryan, who has thrown for 2 TDs in 7 of his 9 games, 3 TDs in 5 of these 9 games, to do well on this Arizona secondary that allowed 4 passing TDs to Green Bay and 3 passing TDs to San Francisco before their bye. Also their run defence is pretty average, as they have allowed 110+ rushing yards in 7 of their 9 games, and Atlanta have run for 120+ yards in 2 of their last 3 games. On defence, Atlanta have allowed just 11 passing TDs while claiming 11 INTs and like them to contain this Arizona offence that has 3 TDs and 4 INTs in its last 5 games while they also have run for less than 100 yards in 6 of its 9 games. Though Atlanta has given up 100+ rushing yards in 7 of its 9 games, they have been better in 2 of their last 3 games where they held them for less than 100 rushing yards. Like Atlanta to be too good on both sides of the ball to win well here Tampa Bay -6.5 @ 3.54 sportsbet Tampa Bay have won 4 of their last 5 games as their offence has sprung to life since their bye, and they have scored 28+ points in each of these 5 games. Their passing game has led to 13 TDs with just 1 INT while their run game has seen them rush for 145+ yards in 3 of these 5 games. Like them to continue their momentum here as Carolina has won just 2 of their 9 games, and they were easily beaten by Denver at home last week (36-14) as QB Manning threw for 301 yards and one TD. Carolina has 4 passing TDs with 5 INTS in their four games since the bye as QB Newton can't get their offence going and though TB may give up some yards, they continue to outplay their opponents. Carolina have run for 70 yards or less in 3 of their last 4 home games which has contributed to their problems while TB have allowed less than 100 yards in 3 of their 4 away games. Like the Bucs here to continue their good form Green Bay -9.5 @ 4.05 sportsbet Green Bay are fresh off a bye which should allow a number of players to overcome some injuries. One player who has found his form is their QB Rodgers who has thrown for 22 TDs and just 3 INTs in his last 6 games, as he looks to once again lead his team to a Super Bowl. With Detroit allowing at least 2 passing TDs in 6 of their 9 games, then can see Rodgers once again doing well against Detroit, where the Packers are not the only team with injury concerns as Detroit have their fair share of players who are likely to be out, especially in the secondary. Detroit's QB Stafford has managed to throw for 300+ yards in 6 of their 9 games, but only in 3 of these games has he thrown for more than one TD. The Packers secondary has allowed just 3 TDs in their last 4 games while they have managed to get 5 INTs, so like them to do well against him yet again. Neither side runs the ball well, and can see this developing into a shootout, but Rodgers has the stedier and hotter hand, and like him to lead the Packers to another win in this division Houston -23.5 @ 3.16 sportsbet Houston beat Jacksonville earlier in the year 27-7 on the road and they have shown this season that they like to run up a score against pretty poor teams when they play at home. They had 195 passing yards and 216 rushing yards in that win while allowing 76 passing yards and 65 rusing yards, and not much has changed since then as the Jaguars are still struggling while Houston is playing well. Indy have problems in protecting their QB while they are without their main rusher in Jones-Drew which leaves Gabbert trying to lead this offence. Expect the Texans to show little mercy here Denver -13.5 @ 2.44 sportsbet Denver's QB Manning continues to be consistent and precise as he has thrown for 3 TDs in 5 of his last 6 games, and against a San Diego secondary that has given up at least 2 passing TDs in 5 of their last 7 games, as they allowed 309 passing yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT to Manning in the 35-24 home loss to them. For SD, QB Rivers continues to struggle with his consistency as he gave up 4 INTs to go with his 2 TDs in that loss, and now in Denver, where Manning has excelled, expect him to be bested by Manning once again. SD will look to their run game, but with RB Mathews questionable, and Denver only twice allowing more than 100 yards in their nine games, doubt that they will have much success here either New England -16.5 @ 2.80 sportsbet New England's QB Brady has 18 TDs and just 3 INTs so like him to do well here on this Indy secondary that has given up 14 passing TDs and just 5 INTs. They have played well in beating the likes of Cleveland, Tennessee, Miami and Jacksonville but none of these are in the same calibre as the Patriots and the last time they faced a QB like Brady, they gave up 243 passing yards and 3 TDs to Green Bay's QB Rodgers. What makes this NE offence even better is the addition of a run game that has ran for 110+ yards in 6 of their 9 games while Indy have allowed that in 5 of their 9 games, and though the Colts also like to run the ball, the Patriots have only twice allowed 110 rushing yards in their games. NE have scored 29+ points in 7 of their 9 games and in order for the Colts to stay in touch they will need to score regularly but they face a NE defence that has given up just 4 passing TDs as gained 4 INTs in their last 3 games. Pittsburgh @ 2.55 bet365 Pittsburgh may have lost their QB but they be a blessing in disguise as they will look to run the ball more of often, and they should as Baltimore allows 132 rushing yards per game, and expect Mendenhall, Dwyer and Redman get plenty of work here. They should be able to tire out this Ravens defence that has given up 116+ rushing yards in 6 of their 9 games. On defence, Pittsburgh allows 171 passing yards and 95 rushing yards per game and the last time Baltimore faced a very good defence, they had just 147 passing yards and 55 rushing yards in the 43-13 road loss to Houston. Like the Steelers defence to hold while they do enough on offence to win the game Record: 23-48 (-7.67)

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL: Week 11 picks I think the Ravens will just stack the box tonight BC, and invite Leftwich to try and beat them through the air. Going to have a look at the Unders later I think, though I don't like having too much resting on one game :unsure

[Backbencher]

Re: NFL: Week 11 picks Arizona @ Atlanta, Arizona +9.5, @1.96 (marathon), 2/10 points Atlanta has not won a game at home by more than 6 points. Arizona has a good defence, specially the secondary and Atlanta won't score easily. Michael Turner is not playing very well and Julio Jones is listed as questionable. Biggest problem for Arizona is the QB position, if they don't make stupid mistakes, coming from a bye week the game should be close. Cleveland @ Dallas, Cleveland +8, @1.94 (marathon), 2/10 points An overreaction here to the game the Cowboys won against the Eagles, a team that's already given up. The Browns are a bad team, but not as bad as their 2-7 suggest. They can keep games close running the ball with Richardson, don' lose games by many points and could have won against Indianapolis and Baltimore. Dallas and Romo have been playing terrible at home, worst than on the road. They are 1-3 at home, and only won against Tampa Bay, but didn't cover as 7 points favourites. NFL 2012: 8-4, +8.58

[allthethings]

Re: NFL: Week 11 picks NY Jets +3.5 @ evens St. Louis shouldn't be a favorite of more than 3 against anybody, and if the NFL has showed us anything this year, it's that home field advantage is overrated. Jets to bounce back. Oak +5 @ -105 New Orleans isn't the same team on the road...and just because they're on a streak that has salvaged their season (for now), I don't expect Oakland to lay down for them. Five is a lot of points to be giving on the road when your defense is horrible. Pitt +3.5 @ -120 Pittsburgh opened as a 3-point favorite at home, and Ben's injury swung the line more than 6 points! I'm going to say that the public is overreacting to the news, and that Leftwich can do some real damage to an overrated Baltimore defense.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NFL: Week 11 picks Matthew Stafford Over 307.5 Passing Yards @ 1.76 Bet365 I expect this game to be a shootout and if it is Stafford will clear this line easily. The only times he's failed to meet this line have been against the SF D, when he was injured against the Titans and when the Lions had a huge lead against the Jags. I don't anticipate Stafford getting hurt, the Packers D, particularly without Clay Mathews, is nowhere near the SF D and the Lions won't have a blowout lead against the Pack. Honestly, only an injury to Stafford or Megatron are big concerns here. Dez Bryant over 67.5 Receiving Yards @ 1.80 Bet365 Dez and Romo have been developing good chemistry this season and Bryant has been used in multiple ways. Sometimes he's the deep target, biting off chunks of 30-40yards, and sometimes he runs a lot of slants like against Baltimore, where he had over 10 catches, mostly on slants and come back routes. The game is in a dome and Romo will take his shots, so as long as the Cowboys don't jump to a big lead I think this line is about 10 yards too skinny. Trent Richardson Over 28.5 Receiving Yards @ 1.83 Bet365 Ultimately I do expect the Cowboys to win, and the Browns will have to throw the ball a fair few times to try and chase what should hopefully be a not too big Cowboy lead. Richardson hasn't exceeded this total in games the Browns have won or narrowly lost, but in the 5 games where they lost by 7+, Richardson has met this line 4 times and still had 6 catches on the time he failed to achieve 29 yards. Whilst I would prefer the Cowboys don't lead by too much early, I do think they will win by 7pts or so, so am more than happy to take this bet. In reality, a well designed screen could see this bet a winner on one play and just think the Browns are too liable to trail not to take this one. Honestly not sure what to make of the Ravens/Steelers game. The Roethlisberger injury feels very hard to factor correctly after these price changes.

[danj2202]

oakland raiders (+5.5) to beat new orleans saints 10/11 william hill cant quite believe i am writing this but i fancy the raiders possibly to even win this game. This is a classic letdown spot for the saints after the win against the unbeaten falcons last week and now they travel with their awful defense cross country to play a feisty raiders team that can and probably will score some points here. The saints next week have the rematch with the falcons as well i believe so could well be playing this "gimme" game with one eye on the division rival. oakland have a point to prove after the blowout loss to baltimore and this shootout should be close. st louis rams (-3.5) to beat new york jets 10/11 skybet jets playing back to back on the road and they cant score points. nothing more i can or really need to say on that Sent from my GT-I9100 using Tapatalk 2

[AGurv]

Re: NFL: Week 11 picks NFL 2012-2013 Overall 24W-25L-2P -3.30 units (48.97%) Hope on the mother ******* choo choo train Carolina pick -115 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Raiders +5 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Steelers +3 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Bears +7 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes **** yeah.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL: Week 11 picks Good work, backbencher + CP :ok The 2 remaining Week 11 games consist of a fierce divisional rivalry where neither team will give, nor expect, an inch, and a clash between 2 excellent defenses. I am already on the Ravens tonight, and don't want to have much more risked on the game - but I do fully expect 2 low-scoring absolute smashup of games, so I have had a little bit on an Unders double Ravens/Steelers - Under 37.5 Bears/49ers - Under 34.5 1.5pt double @ 4.62 Bet365

[kevshat]

Re: NFL: Week 11 picks 4pts Chicago (+7) to beat San Francisco 10/11 Ladbrokes I’m really surprised the Bears are as big as they are here. Jason Campbell isn’t a bad backup to Jay Cutler and San Francisco could be without their first choice quarterback anyway so Cutler’s loss wouldn’t be so huge if that were the case. The Bears defence is playing some real quality ball at the minute and you feel that side of the ball will score every game they play. They are the road team though which can often be a factor on Monday Night so I’ll go with the +7 rather than the straight win. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/chicago--san-francisco-betting-chicago-can-stay-within-a-touchdown-of-the-49ers-on-monday-night

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL: Week 11 picks

Atlanta -17.5 @ 3.14 :( Not much hope when your QB throws 5 INTs Tampa Bay -6.5 @ 3.54 :( Great comeback to win by 6 in OT but missed this by a point Green Bay -9.5 @ 4.05 :( Won by 4 points but with the kicker missing 2 FGs, that would have landed this pick Houston -23.5 @ 3.16 :( How do you allow one of the worst teams to score 37 points on you whey you are supposed to have one of the best defences? Denver -13.5 @ 2.44 :( Rivers throwing for a TD with less than 2 minutes to go to end up losing by 7 - why not throw another INT like you have all year (he is in my fantasy football team - dunce!) New England -16.5 @ 2.80 :D Pittsburgh @ 2.55 :(

Horrible day! :puke Chicago @ 3.42 sportsbet Both teams are simialr in that they are likley to both have replacements for their QBs, they prefer to run the ball, and their defences are very good in stopping the pass and the run. But SF have allowed 136+ rushing yards in 3 of their last 4 games while Chicago have allowed less than 130 rusing yards in 3 of their 4 games, so this Chicago rush defence has looked better of late. Like the value on the Bears here as they have been very good this year in creating turnovers (19 INTs and just 8 passing TDs allowed) while SF have 6 INTs and allowed 8 passing TDs. Record: 24-54 (-11.87)

[Backbencher]

Re: NFL: Week 11 picks

Good work, backbencher + CP :ok

Thanks :)

Arizona @ Atlanta' date= Arizona +9.5, @1.96 (marathon), 2/10 points :D Cleveland @ Dallas, Cleveland +8, @1.94 (marathon), 2/10 points :D

NFL 2012: 10-4, +12.38

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NFL: Week 11 picks Nice work Backbencher. 2/4 for the day so not really very impressive given they were all 1.80ish shots, but could be worse I suppose. Really not sure what to make of tomorrow's game. Such a defensive oriented match up -- I might have a look and see what a special teams/Defensive TD is paying. Can definitely see one of these elite units creating turnovers, particularly with both QBs being concussed last week.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL: Week 11 picks

2/4 for the day so not really very impressive given they were all 1.80ish shots' date=' but could be worse I suppose. [/quote'] Missed your Jones bet... I take it back :lol ;)

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL: Week 11 picks

Chicago @ 3.42 :(

Never in the game today Record: 24-55 (-12.87)