Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)

[Sir Puntalot]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR=class: row1] [TD=class: firstColumn]Valencia v FC BATE Borisov (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.29[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]15.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.84 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=class: firstColumn]FC Bayern München v Lille OSC (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]20[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.83 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[usun]

Re: Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) I'll go for double chance for BATE at 3.5. Odds for Valencia are crap. If BATE scores first, it'll be hard for Valencia to win. Domestic loss to Naftan doesn't show anything, it was a second squad + very specific context when it was the best time to lose.

[oti.kevin prince]

Re: Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) I think that bayern to score in both halfs at 1.65 is value. Bayern scored with valencia in both halfs and agains lille just in the first one. Laste game against hamburg it was 1-0 before the break and 3-0 at the end of the game. A 3-0 win in this game is a probable score

[NoFear]

Re: Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)

I'll go for double chance for BATE at 3.5. Odds for Valencia are crap. If BATE scores first, it'll be hard for Valencia to win. Domestic loss to Naftan doesn't show anything, it was a second squad + very specific context when it was the best time to lose.

Didnt Valencia end atletico madrid's record winning streak this week? And at home arent they a force to be reckon with? Not to forget, they did beat BATE away 3:0. not sure i would back valencia @1.29, but wont be opposing either.

[Fedar]

Re: Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) Valencia are a real force at home - they skipped the victory only once this season at Mestalla - a very unlucky 3:3 draw with Deportivo. Right now they are finding their form. Do not over-estimate BATE as I said last time before Valencia trashed them in Belarus. Don't forget that this team barely passed the first qualifying round against Vardar Skopije. They were severely under-estimated by Bayern. They won't get such treatment from Valencia for sure. It will be a sure and easy win for the hosts. As a matter of fact, I think that after three rounds full of surprising results, this round and the next one will be very predictable and go in the way of logic and expectations. The big surprises in the CL almost always happen in the first games, when underdogs are heavily underestimated, favorites haven't found their rhythm in the tournament yet, and they know that they can make-up for any mistakes.

[usun]

Re: Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)

Didnt Valencia end atletico madrid's record winning streak this week? And at home arent they a force to be reckon with? Not to forget, they did beat BATE away 3:0. not sure i would back valencia @1.29, but wont be opposing either.

they did beat BATE 3:0, but it was just the question who was going to score first. Lucky penalty + lucky perfect shot on counter attack just demolished BATE, they are small team and couldn't cope with such situation. BATE delivers top game against strong team only when they are parking a bus in defense+ use fast counters. And they'll defenitely do it in Valencia, so if they catch Valencia on counter and first to score - it'll be a very different story. Plus Valencia doesn't really need a victory here, draw will be ok, plus they might be overconfident after such easy victory. So again, 1.29 is too low odds for Valencia.

[usun]

Re: Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)

Do not over-estimate BATE as I said last time before Valencia trashed them in Belarus. Don't forget that this team barely passed the first qualifying round against Vardar Skopije. They were severely under-estimated by Bayern. They won't get such treatment from Valencia for sure. It will be a sure and easy win for the hosts.

Ok, looks you don't know why BATE was weak first qualifying rounds. Let me provide you a context. 1) Olympic games. 5 players from BATE where with Belarusian squad there. - Bressan - mid-fielder, playmaker from the starting line-up (at that point). Bressan was the best player in the team. - Baha - mid-fielder, important player from the starting line-up. - Polyakov - defender from the starting line-up. - Hutor - second goalkeeper, he was the first one previous year. There was a local "conspiracy theory" that BATE deliberately put him on bench this season and signed-up a new first goalkeeper, as goalkeepers Hutor and Scherbakov were going to Olympics and team wanted to have any kind of goalkeeper with play practice during CL qualifications. - Scherbakov - third goalkeeper. All they returned just before return leg in Hungary and were primary reason of good team performance shown. 2) Because of Olympic games, BATE had to sign up Hleb (to substitute a missing Bressan, for this season only) and Vasiluk (for attack depth) just before games with Debrecen. It took some time for them to blend in and help the team. As appeared, Hleb fully replaced Bressan in the starting line (except few domestic games) and proved to be a great acquisition. However, he'll leave the team this winter, I guess. 3) There was a scary performance in the last qualifying round in Israel - but need to keep in mind 2:0 advantage they had after the first leg, and extreme weather conditions, but still they got enough experience to survive there.

[Fedar]

Re: Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) Usun, we have been discussing these games in the summer, and as far as I remember, BATE missed those players only for the return game in Skopije. Correct me if wrong, but they were playing in Belarus, when BATE luckily survived with two goals in extra time. Against a team with no experience, for which it was the first competitive game of the season, while BATE had been in the middle of their league. I am very much aware of their style - parking the bus and counter-attacking. However, it is one thing doing it at home against a team that totally under-estimated you, and completely different thing when you have to defend at Mestalla against a fully motivated and in great shape Valencia. I am not saying 1.28 is a good price. But I definitely won't be opposing Valencia here in any way. I would rather take some handicap on Celtic at home against already qualified Barca, than bet against desperately needing the victory Valencia.

[usun]

Re: Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) no no, they missed them for both games against Vardar and first leg against Debrecen. Hleb and Vasiluyk were signed up just vefore Debrecen, he wasn't playing against Vardar at all. Team that played against Vardar is just a second squad in comparison to current Bate starting line-up. I still think Valencia's victory was not easy and it could easily turn to Bayern's scenario as game progressed. Sure, Valencia is a clear favourite, but just thinking that odds are not right for them.

[usun]

Re: Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/season=2013/matches/round=2000344/match=2009407/postmatch/report/index.html - here is the first game against Vardar. Bressan, Baha and obviously Hleb are not there. However, Polyakov really departed only after that game and it could cause a confusion. Against Vardar they were effectively playing without regular mid field.

[stiba]

Re: Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) Mandzukic out!!! Illness and missed with Lille

[Yugoslavia]

Re: Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)

they did beat BATE 3:0, but it was just the question who was going to score first. Lucky penalty + lucky perfect shot on counter attack just demolished BATE, they are small team and couldn't cope with such situation. BATE delivers top game against strong team only when they are parking a bus in defense+ use fast counters. And they'll defenitely do it in Valencia, so if they catch Valencia on counter and first to score - it'll be a very different story. Plus Valencia doesn't really need a victory here, draw will be ok, plus they might be overconfident after such easy victory. So again, 1.29 is too low odds for Valencia.

So,i can understand if you have sympathy for club such as BATE,i do too,but i couldnt understand yours explanations that Valencia dont need victory tonight,if we know the schedule Valencia will in next match host Bayern and than will play away against Lille,so how could you say they dont need win,draw is enough,so i will bet on win HT win FT + over 2,5 odd 2.40.GOOD LUCK!!!

[assange58]

Re: Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)

So' date='i can understand if you have sympathy for club such as BATE,i do too,but i couldnt understand yours explanations that Valencia dont need victory tonight,if we know the schedule Valencia will in next match host Bayern and than will play away against Lille,so how could you say they dont need win,draw is enough,so i will bet on win HT win FT + over 2,5 odd 2.40.GOOD LUCK!!![/quote'] Agreed. Valencia will need a win if they want to win the group and keep pressure on Bayern. Beating BATE at home is a perfect opportunity to achieve these goals, so it makes little sense for Valencia to shoot for a draw here.

[usun]

Re: Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)

So' date='i can understand if you have sympathy for club such as BATE,i do too,but i couldnt understand yours explanations that Valencia dont need victory tonight,if we know the schedule Valencia will in next match host Bayern and than will play away against Lille,so how could you say they dont need win,draw is enough,so i will bet on win HT win FT + over 2,5 odd 2.40.GOOD LUCK!!![/quote'] Well BATE will loose vs Bayern, and it means it will be safe for Valencia to take just 4 points from this opposition. However, I changed my mind, it should be a relatevly easy victory for Valencia. Interviews from BATE side showing they might gave up already and looking for EL; and they are well known that won't really fight if they don't need to. Plus Valencia really strong at home. So, I was wrong, and your advice is good.

[vinnyno10]

Re: Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) I will stay away from this group.. So many times in the past few seasons I have seen people classify even the likes of Barca who won it that given year drop points against much weaker oppositions. I do think both Bayern & Valencia should get wins here but surely there is no value betting on either, at current odds. I know Lille are awful this year and Valencia have an admirable home record but f this!

[assange58]

Re: Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)

I will stay away from this group.. So many times in the past few seasons I have seen people classify even the likes of Barca who won it that given year drop points against much weaker oppositions. I do think both Bayern & Valencia should get wins here but surely there is no value betting on either, at current odds. I know Lille are awful this year and Valencia have an admirable home record but f this!

Wait wait wait. I already splashed some cash on Valencia (-1.5AH @1.76 Betonline), but now you're scaring me. Do you really see no value in ANY of the Valencia handicaps? I watched them against Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico on Saturday and they look like the typical stout Valencia team that we all know from prior years (esp at home which you mentioned). Therefore, I feel they can cruise against BATE tomorrow and considering that the group is bunched up with 3 teams on 6 points, I figure Valencia will relish the opportunity to pull ahead or (most likely) keep pace with Bayern. The reason I am asking, Zeus, is I was thinking of putting down more on Valencia sometime on Wednesday, but now...

[nicko]

Re: Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)

Wait wait wait. I already splashed some cash on Valencia (-1.5AH @1.76 Betonline), but now you're scaring me. Do you really see no value in ANY of the Valencia handicaps? I watched them against Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico on Saturday and they look like the typical stout Valencia team that we all know from prior years (esp at home which you mentioned). Therefore, I feel they can cruise against BATE tomorrow and considering that the group is bunched up with 3 teams on 6 points, I figure Valencia will relish the opportunity to pull ahead or (most likely) keep pace with Bayern. The reason I am asking, Zeus, is I was thinking of putting down more on Valencia sometime on Wednesday, but now...

Stick to your gut feeling. It is great to read what others think, and that is why this forum is so strong. Valencia have everything to beat the -1,5 AH...Will they do it is another thing, but if your expectations and research before the game are right, how will you feel if you changed your mind because of a post here, and the result is what you expect? Even if that post comes from the best punters?

[Jarni]

Re: Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) I'll be taking a bit of a risky bet here Bayern München - Lille, Bayern -2,5 win @ 2.45 Bet365 Lately Lille have been finding their form back in France, even with players like Debuchy on their huge injury list. Like Bayern, Lille is a team that want possesion of the ball, but playing at the Allianz against one of Europes best teams when it comes to posession will be tough. Nolan Roux is scoring a lot in France, at the moment and they haven't conceeded than 3 goals in their last 6 matches, including Bayern. Heynckes and Bayern are without topscorer Mandzukic, as he suffers of some sort of illness leaving the position for Pizarro. You might think that Pizarro is out of form, but based on his input in the 4-0 win over Kaiserslautern last wedensday I would say he is a striker in form. Heynckes is aware that the 3 points are needed and with 3 teams having 6 points, all goals are needed more than never. Lille played very tough last time they met, and could easily have gotten a red card. With the 3-0 victory over Hamburger SV last saturday, Bayern will be eager for more with drives from both sides. If Bayern gets an early goal, Lille are forced out of their own box and that's what I'm hoping for.

[SgtTr]

Re: Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) I would do some live betting if I was in your shoes. If Valencia scores early then you're winning, but if they play well but do not score you'll get better odds as the game progresses.

[Fedar]

Re: Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille)

Well BATE will loose vs Bayern, and it means it will be safe for Valencia to take just 4 points from this opposition. However, I changed my mind, it should be a relatevly easy victory for Valencia. Interviews from BATE side showing they might gave up already and looking for EL; and they are well known that won't really fight if they don't need to. Plus Valencia really strong at home. So, I was wrong, and your advice is good.

How come you change your mind so radically?! Of course BATE will say that they have no chances - that's their mind-game where they want to keep low profile and make the other team underestimate them. They will surely go to war against Valencia. But I still insist that class advantage for Valencia is too big here.

[usun]

Re: Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) no, I frankly got impression they gave up, I've seen it so often from them if they think there is no realistic shot or no real need - they just don't fight. And they are small team, without fighting even the lucky first goal won't help them. Plus they won't be in such a good shape as in previous game, even though they rested all key people. Paulow - a very good partner for Hleb will be missing the game. And finnaly, they achieved everything they dreamt already for this season. So, the only shot here for them if they are fooling everyone around with interviews and really think they can and want to win this one + they are lucky to score the first goal + Valencia is a bit off top (e.g. Soldado may be rested due to 1 yellow card + death of his grandfather). Too many conditions, I don't believe in this.

[BTB1]

Re: Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) Hello! Bit late but looking at the games in this group, there will be two expected home wins. Bayern Munich won the lastmeeting between these two away from home, two weeks ago and I expect abigger victory this time at home. 1/5 is not great odds but knowing howtenacious the German teams are, and Bayern being a top class teams, I think -1 onhandicap at 8/15 will add value to an acc. Good luck with your bets tonight.

[vinnyno10]

Re: Group F > Nov 7 (BATE, Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille) Both home teams got the wins here, but Valencia conceding 2 at home was exactly the kind of thing I was afraid of. It could easily went the other way had the momentum kept Bate going, still Valencia managed to cover the -1 handicap ;) Well done to all who backed goals & handicap wins on both games.