Alfred Dunhill Links (4th-7th Oct)

[RussP]

Back to reality & the 3 course Alfred Dunhill Links starting on Thursday. First 3 days playing with the celebs where pin positions will be easily than normal, with the last day at St Andrews with tougher pins and no celebs. Looking forward to it, especially with some of the Ryder Cup boys on show (albeit Westwood has pulled out).

[RussP]

Re: Alfred Dunhill Links (4th-7th Oct) 5 bets for me this week, where I may be taking slightly shorter odds to get an extra place. Most pay first 5 but Ladbrokes, Stan James & SportingBet go first 6. Normally, I'm a 3 or 4 players per tournament chap but this week I've gone with a full 5, yet still not exceeding the 15pt stake. At the prices, I'll get my money back (not quite with Donaldson) should just 1 of 5 place. Onto the event itself and it's quite different than the normal stuff. It's not an event where statistics play the biggest part (ie, best driver, longest, etc) but is more one where a player must be suited to the format of a 3 day, 3 course pro-am before a final day for pro's only. Therefore, this leads me to looking at previous event form, I'd almost go as far as to state that you can write off anyone without a top 20 in the last 2 years. In addition, you want someone who has been teeing it up well during the year so multiple piece of forms, including some recent form, is a must. The final thing I look for is a player who's likely to be suited by links tracks. With Oosthuizen, Harrington, Lawrie and DJ in the field, we're getting some good value too on quality players. My 5 against the field are: T.Bjorn to win Alfred Dunhill Links, 1.5pts EW @ 50/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-6) The likeable Dane has every chance this week. First up, his links form isn't for debate as we all know about his pair of Top 5 finishes in the Open at Royal St Georges. Add to that, his win at Gleneagles last year backed up by his 10th in the same event 2 starts ago. His form this season has been good yet he's still miles away from his 2011 form of 3 wins including back to back victories. Other than his finish at Gleneagles, he has 5 other top 10's from just 18 starts (top 10 every 1 in 3, a great ratio). Certainly capable of going well here, finishing 11th 2 years ago. Still inside the World's top 50 so 50/1 looks big, especially if the wind gets up come Thursday. M.Warren to win Alfred Dunhill Links, 1.5pts EW @ 60/1 Stan James (1/4 odds 1-6) A player I have a lot of time for, this is the event he's been looking forward to and with good reason. He clearly likes the format, with 3 Top 5's in the last 4 years including a 5th 12 months ago. Form doesn't come much stronger in this and it's generally recognised that the same players rise to the top here year on year. As well as in this, he has shown recent form in a multi track event, finishing 3rd on his first start in 2012 at the Joburg Open. That could prove crucial too. His other top 3 came here in his native Scotland, at the Scottish Open where he was leading down the back 9. His form is holding up well too, with a pair of top 15 finishes in his last 2 events. Fully refreshed after the enforced break, I expect him to be in tip top shape when he finally tees it up. R.Fisher to win Alfred Dunhill Links, 1.5pts EW @ 66/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-6) British, loves links golf and has course form. The perfect profile for this, I feel Ross Fisher could go well at a price. Hasn't done as much as many would have expected over the last couple of seasons but he's still a very capable golfer and could easily get back inside the world's top 100 with a good result here. He does have 5 top 10's in just 18 starts this term so he's clearly striking it ok and that included a 10th place finish at the Irish Open, played on a links course. Other notable bits of links form include a win at the KLM in 2007 and a top 15 at Turnberry in the 2009 Open, where he has been leading going into the final day. His form here is none too shabby also, finishing 11th in 2010 and edged out in a play off to Karlsson 2 years earlier. In the hope this venue sparks a return to winning ways, I'll take a chance on the Englishman. J.Donaldson to win Alfred Dunhill Links, 1.5pts EW @ 33/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-6) Finally got that monkey of his back with a win at the Irish Open and that is huge for Donaldson. He can now kick on and record another win, especially as he has both form on links tracks and here at this pro-am. Since that win, he's had a top 10 on the European Tour as well as a 7th on the US PGA, the best ever Major finish. That win in Ireland has given him huge confidence. 9th here last year, as well as a furthe top 10 in 2008, he's shown a liking for this format. Likes Scotland on the whole too, with a top 10 at the Scottish Open the last time there and a pair of top 10's at Gleneagles in the last 3 years. Just outside the world's top 50, he'll be hoping for a good result here ahead of a strong finish to his best ever year. D.Lynn to win Alfred Dunhill Links, 1.5pts EW @ 80/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-6) On the back of a 2nd at the US PGA, a finish that proved he can mix it with the big boys, David Lynn now sits as the world number 39. This is obviously his best ever season and he will be hoping to prove himself at this big event. There's no doubt he has room for improvement in this event and, therefore, it could be seen as a risk but 80/1 is worth it. The last 2 years have seen top 30 finishes here so it wouldn't be so unexpected for him to go well here. Whilst I've talked down the power of stats, it's been evident recently that Lynn has a hot putter and with pin positions expect to be relatively easy through to Saturday, I can see him getting on a roll and holing some birdies. If he can do that, the odds available on him may look a little generous.

[kevshat]

Re: Alfred Dunhill Links (4th-7th Oct) 1pt ew P.Lawrie to win Alfred Dunhill Links Championship 25/1 Stan James (1/4 1-6) You might think it is wise to avoid a Ryder Cup player but Martin Kaymer showed two years ago that you can win this tournament soon after getting smashed celebrating a Ryder Cup win and I’m happy to chance my arm that Paul Lawrie can repeat that feat. Lawrie is playing some lovely golf at the minute. He played lovely at Gleneagles and in Switzerland in the run up to the Ryder Cup and he played well at the Ryder Cup. Confidence can’t be much higher for Lawrie at the minute and as a former winner of this tournament and having gone pretty well for the most part at The Open earlier in the year I think Lawrie could give the Scottish fans a home winner this week. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/alfred-dunhill-links-championship-betting-paul-lawrie-can-continue-riding-the-crest-of-a-wave-in-scotland-this-week

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Alfred Dunhill Links (4th-7th Oct) Joel Sjoholm @ 410 Betfair Has been at the pointy end of leaderboards at various times this year and is a real birdie monster when he's hot. Given the amateurs will make playing a bit easier the first 3 rounds I think he's the type of player who might really be able to rack up a score early and offer good value.

[Aidymac]

Re: Alfred Dunhill Links (4th-7th Oct) *Richie Ramsay WIN @ 40.00 Betfair* I backed Richie the last time he won not so long ago and he looks overpriced here. He is in the form of his life, having won the Omega European Masters, finishing 6th at Gleneagles, and finishing in a tie for 2nd at the KLM Open from his last 3 events. He also finished 2nd in the Ballantine's earlier in the year, the Scot is having a great year and playing on home soil should play to his strengths also. *Alvaro Quiros WIN @ 150.00 Betfair* A big price for a 6 time European Tour winner, but i guess he has gone a bit off the boil in recent times. Nonetheless, on his day, he is a terrific golfer. He has only had one Top 5 this season, in the Volvo World Matchplay, which is very poor by his standards. He has had a 2-3 week break which might have done him so good, he did win twice on tour last year so he definately still has it in him. He finished 5th in this event in 2010, but he also won this event in 2007 so i will go for him at a big price. *Raphael Jacquelin WIN @ 200.00 Betfair* With 6 places on offer from Ladbrokes, i think this frenchman is overpriced. He has 3 tour wins to his name. He has had three Top 10's this year, 5th in Andalucia, 3rd in the French Open and 7th in the Volvo Golf Champions. He is normally fairly reliable to make the cut, which is one of the things i look for when backing a golfer. He was T16 in this event in 2009, T24 in 2008, T22 in 2006, 3rd in 2003, so i hope he can take it one step further this weekend.

[hebert10]

Re: Alfred Dunhill Links (4th-7th Oct) 1pt EW Gregory Bourdy @ 76 Bet365 Bourdy's been knocking on the door lately and playing some decent golf, he has two recent top 10 finishes at the BMW and KLM opens so will will come in to this full of confidence, happy to take a punt on him at a big price this week. 4pts EW Paul Lawrie @ 26 Betvictor I can't really look beyond Lawrie this week, his game has been superb lately and he's making everything look easy. He won the Johnnie Walker championship recently then followed that up with a T6 at the Omega European Masters. Even at the Ryder cup he proved why he was in that european team with a great display. Expecting another big week from the scotsman.

[Bobbyhead]

Dustin Johnson each way 18/1,1/4 odds 1-5,William Hill This could go one of two ways. The dissapointment and drama of the Ryder Cup may well have taken their toll on DJ. But he was one of the few Americans who can hold their head up high winning his singles match to complete 3/3. The only player in Medinah with a 100% record,i believe? He came into it in very good form,T10 in the Tour Championship,T6 in the BMW Championship,T4 in the Deutsche Bank & T3 in the Barclays. He loves links golf,backed up by good finishes in the British Open,T14 in 2010,T2 in 2011,T9 this year at Royal Lytham & St Anne's. He is teamed up with his brother Austin in the pro-am stage,so will hopefully enjoy his golf & put last weekend behind him. Had USA of won,I doubt these odds would be available given his form. 18/1 seems decent,especially with Woods,McIlroy & co not entering. If he were to post a low score tomorrow,I can see him being thereabouts come Sunday afternoon.